WI: Full scale US invasion of Brazil in 1964.

[Gukpard]

In 1964 we had the US sponsored coup in Brazil. To jump a long boring discussion, the government of João Goulart wanted to do some very capitalist reforms on the country, so a minor faction of the army and some sectors of the civil society painted him as a commie, even tough him paradoxically was a anti communist, and the US department of state supported this coup.

The problem is that the coup was extremely unpopular, so the USA sent a taskforce to support in it case it got bogged down. You had a plan to use six infantry divisions to land and support a takeover of Brazil, however Goulart fled and his government just collapsed because it lost the reason to fight.

The US government had planned to use the divisions to seize Rio, the northeast and the Amazon rainforrest area, while the rest would be left as a problem their supported government. This would leave Brazil divided on something like this:

Spoiler: Spoiler since the map is too big

The rest had to be conquered by their minions.

Let's say that Jango doesn't flee. This would make the coup crumble, so to prevent this from happening the US government would need to land and do things directly. Let's say that for some reason CIA screws up so badly it greenlights the invasion and the USA army lands in Brazil, what happens after it?.

I gonna call more people, feel free to tag even more.

@Geon @Guilherme Loureiro @Vinization

 

[Deleted member 2186]

The problem is that the coup was extremely unpopular, so the USA sent a taskforce to support in it case it got bogged down. You had about seven marine divisions stationed close to Rio to land and support a takeover of Brazil, however Goulart fled and his government just collapsed because it lost the reason to

Never knew the United States Marine Corps had 7 Marine divisions. In 1964 they had the 1st true 3rd, only in 1966 the 4th and 5th who where disbanded after the end of World War II where reactivated for service in Vietnam.

 

[Gukpard]

Never knew the United States Marine Corps had 7 Marine divisions. In 1964 they had the 1st true 3rd, only in 1966 the 4th and 5th who where disbanded after the end of World War II where reactivated for service in Vietnam.

Right, I took the seven marine divisions claim for a bulletin, but I read the claim wrongly, already edited

"Gordon said that a US invasion would require six divisions, many ships and a ‘massive military operation’. He then declared that ‘it all depends on what the Brazilian military do’ but he feared that a coup attempt could lead to an ‘internal clash’ and ‘the beginnings of what would amount to a civil war’. (From White House, Excerpts from John F. Kennedy's conversation regarding Brazil with US Ambassador to Brazil Lincoln Gordon on Monday, 7 October 1963, Tape 114/A50, President's Office Files, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library, Boston, pp. 7–8)."
source https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/blar.12518

 

[Geon]

Brazil might well become the next Vietnam. In fact, given its proximity to the U.S. I could see LBJ deciding that Vietnam was a sideshow and Brazil was the real threat. You've got a situation where the U.S. is helping the military (which wants to set up a military dictatorship if I read this rightly). And it going up against a legitimately elected leader of the country.

My own thoughts? Joao, to protect his government, finds himself allying with Cuba (the enemy of my enemy is my friend) and ends up receiving men and materials to fight off the "Yankee Imperialists."

The war quickly becomes unpopular in the U.S. as casualties mount with the pro-Joao forces staging a guerilla war against U.S. held areas. What starts as an effort to oust a possible communist from power (who isn't) ends up with the U.S. taking sides in a civil war. (Think Spanish Civil War)

Returning to Vietnam briefly, eventually the government of South Vietnam falls without U.S. forces available to stop the Viet Cong or the NVA.

Meantime more and more troops are poured into Brazil (the same as OTL with Vietnam). Also, the media displays images of how brutal anti-Joao Brazilian forces are against the pro-socialist forces.

Eventually, protests in the U.S. force LBJ to withdraw U.S. troops. Joao's forces reclaim all of Brazil. But Joao pays a price for this. He is forced to allow more communists into his government and is eventually removed from office in favor of a "true" communist believer. Brazil is now a communist government in South America-and the U.S. has a major headache to worry about for the future.

Such as they are those are my thoughts on the matter.

 

[GauchoBadger]

A Brazilian-American War instead of a war in Vietnam would have interesting consequences for counterculture -- for example, Brazil, like the United States, has a very sizeable African-descended community which may establish serious ties with the civil rights movement. Malcolm X might end up saying a thing or two about Zumbi dos Palmares...

On the military front, it'll be a mess for US forces no matter how much the generals try to sell it as an easy fight given Brazil's concentration of industry on the coast -- it is 7.000 km of coast to patrol and occupy, after all, and with a very extensive hinterland that no ammount of napalm can clear out in time to prevent the Brazilians from using. And there is no guarantee that other Latin American countries won't aid the Brazilians in their struggle either.

 

[walmart]

Despite the large size as long as no body is able to supply anti-American forces in Brazil. I can't imagine the occupation being that bad on a count of lack of Arms to any rebel forces.

 

[John_Smith12]

I don't know how the US could sell this to NATO and Europe, the Korean War was defensive and the Vietnam was intervening against a communinst but Brazil, this would be seen as naked imperialism by Europe. France and Britain definitely wouldn't send troops and if anything could condemn the war entirely

 

[walmart]

And there is no guarantee that other Latin American countries won't aid the Brazilians in their struggle either.

With the expectation of Cuba. wasn't the rest of Latin America firmly in the American sphere ?

 

[Gukpard]

I wonder if this could have turned into a American afeghanistan, on the sense that they would train the collaborationist war to fight the war for themselves.

 

[Gukpard]

Brazil might well become the next Vietnam. In fact, given its proximity to the U.S. I could see LBJ deciding that Vietnam was a sideshow and Brazil was the real threat. You've got a situation where the U.S. is helping the military (which wants to set up a military dictatorship if I read this rightly). And it going up against a legitimately elected leader of the country.

My own thoughts? Joao, to protect his government, finds himself allying with Cuba (the enemy of my enemy is my friend) and ends up receiving men and materials to fight off the "Yankee Imperialists."

The war quickly becomes unpopular in the U.S. as casualties mount with the pro-Joao forces staging a guerilla war against U.S. held areas. What starts as an effort to oust a possible communist from power (who isn't) ends up with the U.S. taking sides in a civil war. (Think Spanish Civil War)

Returning to Vietnam briefly, eventually the government of South Vietnam falls without U.S. forces available to stop the Viet Cong or the NVA.

Meantime more and more troops are poured into Brazil (the same as OTL with Vietnam). Also, the media displays images of how brutal anti-Joao Brazilian forces are against the pro-socialist forces.

Eventually, protests in the U.S. force LBJ to withdraw U.S. troops. Joao's forces reclaim all of Brazil. But Joao pays a price for this. He is forced to allow more communists into his government and is eventually removed from office in favor of a "true" communist believer. Brazil is now a communist government in South America-and the U.S. has a major headache to worry about for the future.

Such as they are those are my thoughts on the matter.

Geon, here something I just wondered. Let's say the Brazilian army is so destroyed by the initial landing that the putschists are able to seize most of the country. Could the USA "declared victory and retreat"? Taking most of the force and leaving instructors to deal with the guerrila part of the war?

 

[Geon]

Geon, here something I just wondered. Let's say the Brazilian army is so destroyed by the initial landing that the putschists are able to seize most of the country. Could the USA "declared victory and retreat"? Taking most of the force and leaving instructors to deal with the guerrila part of the war?

That would be the logical thing to do. Unfortunately, what then happens I think is we get the "Dirty War" Brazilian style. These guerilla affairs usually turn very messy with civilians caught between the opposing forces.

 

[CalBear]

First thing that strikes me is that the U.S. didn't have enough lift to move six divisions at one time, much less conduct anything close to an opposed landing, at least not in a short times frame. We may not be talking the Invasion of Okinawa distance wise, but this isn't exact a cross-Channel exercise either It would have taken some months to get enough AK out of the Reserve Fleet (aka: "mothballs") to pull that off. It would also require a full out call-up of the Navy Reserve (including, very possibly, the individual ready reserve, which would require, at minimum, a Congressional authorization a la the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution if not a straight Declaration of War.

As an example - to put six divisions onto Okinawa (on division was assigned to the "Western Islands/floating reserve, and is not included in the following figures) took 133 APA/AKA, 159 LST and 24 LSM requiring 83,700 enlisted and 5,700 officers (note that this does not include a very large number LCT, LCM, LCI(L), etc.). TOTAL USN manning in 1964 was 665,000, this includes USN Aviation, USN submariners, Surface Warfare, and "active" Reserve personnel. Very few of those personnel were underemployed. This operation would require, assuming all forces would be deployed in the same time frame, a minimum 15% increase in USN staffing on short notice (e.g. 30 year olds who had completed their three years of conscripted service close to a decade ago, getting a telegram that started with "Greetings"). Same largely goes for the Ground component. 4 U.S. Army divisions and two Marine Divisions are going to divert about a quarter-third of all combat personnel in the Active Force and "Ready Reserve/National Guard".

As a comparative: When the U.S. landed on Okinawa in 1945 total USN Staffing was 3,405,000 officers and enlisted. To manage the commitment in Vietnam while still meeting other global requirements the U.S. Army increased enlisted ranks by 550,000 and officer ranks by 56,000 between 1964 and 1968.

It would certainly be doable, but it would have to be one hell of good sell job to Congress and the American electorate. The "good thing" from the White House's perspective is that the specter of the Missile Crisis is still very fresh in everyone's mind, and if the "Communist takeover" is pushed hard enough it might stick. This would also, almost certainly, prevent the U.S. build-up in Vietnam with all that implies.

Actually seems a lot close to talk, talk, talk than to walk, walk, walk once the Chiefs gave the NCA a "no shitting around" briefing.

 

[Fernan3451]

With the expectation of Cuba. wasn't the rest of Latin America firmly in the American sphere ?

But... would they actually support the invasion even in the American sphere?

 

[Geon]

But... would they actually support the invasion even in the American sphere?

This was 1964. As indicated earlier it was barely 2 years after the Cuban Missile Crisis. And while the psychology of the Second Red Scare was not as predominant as it had been there was still a great deal of concern. I could definitely see Brazil's southern neighbor Argentina supporting any such U.S. move and even offering its bases and troops for use against the "communist threat" in Brazil.

 

[Gukpard]

First thing that strikes me is that the U.S. didn't have enough lift to move six divisions at one time, much less conduct anything close to an opposed landing, at least not in a short times frame. We may not be talking the Invasion of Okinawa distance wise, but this isn't exact a cross-Channel exercise either It would have taken some months to get enough AK out of the Reserve Fleet (aka: "mothballs") to pull that off. It would also require a full out call-up of the Navy Reserve (including, very possibly, the individual ready reserve, which would require, at minimum, a Congressional authorization a la the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution if not a straight Declaration of War.

As an example - to put six divisions onto Okinawa (on division was assigned to the "Western Islands/floating reserve, and is not included in the following figures) took 133 APA/AKA, 159 LST and 24 LSM requiring 83,700 enlisted and 5,700 officers (note that this does not include a very large number LCT, LCM, LCI(L), etc.). TOTAL USN manning in 1964 was 665,000, this includes USN Aviation, USN submariners, Surface Warfare, and "active" Reserve personnel. Very few of those personnel were underemployed. This operation would require, assuming all forces would be deployed in the same time frame, a minimum 15% increase in USN staffing on short notice (e.g. 30 year olds who had completed their three years of conscripted service close to a decade ago, getting a telegram that started with "Greetings"). Same largely goes for the Ground component. 4 U.S. Army divisions and two Marine Divisions are going to divert about a quarter-third of all combat personnel in the Active Force and "Ready Reserve/National Guard".

As a comparative: When the U.S. landed on Okinawa in 1945 total USN Staffing was 3,405,000 officers and enlisted. To manage the commitment in Vietnam while still meeting other global requirements the U.S. Army increased enlisted ranks by 550,000 and officer ranks by 56,000 between 1964 and 1968.

It would certainly be doable, but it would have to be one hell of good sell job to Congress and the American electorate. The "good thing" from the White House's perspective is that the specter of the Missile Crisis is still very fresh in everyone's mind, and if the "Communist takeover" is pushed hard enough it might stick. This would also, almost certainly, prevent the U.S. build-up in Vietnam with all that implies.

Actually seems a lot close to talk, talk, talk than to walk, walk, walk once the Chiefs gave the NCA a "no shitting around" briefing.

So as much this was considered, it would never realize under OTL circunstances, right?

 

[CalBear]

So as much this was considered, it would never realize under OTL circunstances, right?

Very unlikely. It is one of those things that makes military sense until you start to pick at it. Give the U.S. the Armed Forces of 1945 (around 14,000,000 personnel under arms) with 1960s weapons and it can be done, but with actual forces levels at 1/10 that figure? Comes down to "do we leave Japan and Korea up for grabs or do we tell NATO they be on their own?" or "well, in 18 months we can do this without abandoning our allies".

 

[Coiler]

I should note that beefing up the naval intervention force from the one carrier they sent IOTL is a lot easier to do (not that it's a cakewalk even with a much bigger fleet than now, but certainly easier than scrounging up six divisions and their shipping), sends the same message regarding US support for the coup, and puts a lot fewer Americans at direct risk.

 

[Gukpard]

I should note that beefing up the naval intervention force from the one carrier they sent IOTL is a lot easier to do (not that it's a cakewalk even with a much bigger fleet than now, but certainly easier than scrounging up six divisions and their shipping), sends the same message regarding US support for the coup, and puts a lot fewer Americans at direct risk.

Yeah, that worked OTL. He still didn't had decided if he would resist or not, then he was told about the imminent American invasion and gave up. As a historian once said, "If the army that defeated Nazi Germany and the Empire of Japan was coming, what Goulart could have done?"

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

God, this seems like such a bad idea. Vietnam style quagmire with the added bonus of probable domestic race-related drama? oy

 

[Gabingston]

God, this seems like such a bad idea. Vietnam style quagmire with the added bonus of probable domestic race-related drama? oy

Hey, as Whatifalthist said, the U.S. goes back and forth between bombing countries and forgetting they exist.