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next chapter will be about the aftermath of the Gaines Rebellion. So buckle up boys. Any predictions?

I predict that there‘s going to be the obvious crackdowns on dissent and purges of suspected conspirators within the bureaucracy and military that follows any failed coup, and I presume American Civil War veterans in particular will be targeted due to Gaines. All of which will in the long term only further decay the US. Oh and as well, the plains native tribes are almost certainly screwed after they backed Gaines.

On the flip side, the DUAY and other anti-Jackson groups must be feeling somewhat hopeful. Sure Gaines lost really badly but, the fact that such a public figure could even get as far as he did shows that Jackson’s regime is beginning to unravel at the edges. I’d expect they’d be a lot more careful going forward in terms of planning, since Jackson is almost certainly going to try and crush them sooner rather than later.

Finally the failure of the Republican restoration attempt of Gaines makes me curious of what sort of ideology the DUAY will end up embracing. And of course, there’s the question of whether they will attempt to ally with slaves as Gaines did.
 
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any predictions on the Tian Dynasty?

*Cracks knuckles* Okay, let's get a bit crazy here.

I am guessing the Qing will go down long and hard. The Qing rally and manage a stalemate or at least delaying to the Tian. The Empreror is then approached by the British who offer their aid, but the price tag is high with a lease on Formosa. The Qing Emperor is loath to accept it but Formosa is not the Empire and the lease does have an expiration date.

So it goes down with the British both supplying advisors and arms to the Qing but the royal navy also taking actions and against the Tian south. As British influence in the Qing court grows the Emperor tries to stave off British domination by bringing other Europeans to the table like Portugal. Portugal enters the fray to help counter the British weight but the price not only being land but Chritian missionaries free to preach among the Qing lands with the dynasties protection.

Despite the benefits this brings the Qing military cause its a PR disaster, with the Emperor seen by many as selling out China to the Barbarians. The new Confucian Emperor hardly needs to do anything to be see as the champion of Chinese identity and tradition against the fraudulent dynasty.

This collapse of support for the Qing eventually extends to their own armies suffering desertion, and the Qing empire collapses with the Qing court throwing the foreigners out to late to negotiate a surrender. The Europeans might be driven from court but with the end of the Qing dynasty they take their leases as now annexations with no Qing Emperor now to demand fulfillment. Formosa, Macau, and maybe Hainan also see a surge in Anti Tainan refugees.

Tian China in its early years at least is deeply nationalistic and xenophobic. While they adopt western tech and a number of reforms under a New Confucianism, they are doubling down o Chinese pride and exceptionalism. Which includes new paranoia or outright persecution on 'foreign religions' such as Christianity, Islam, and even Buddhism getting grief over the 'traitors' in Tibet. So China rushes to modernize all the while promoting a form and narrow sense of Chinese identity and a 'Chinese destiny' to reassert not only control over its own territory but the so called Sinosphere.

next chapter will be about the aftermath of the Gaines Rebellion. So buckle up boys. Any predictions?

A purge will be carried out, and Jackson's secret police expanded. Jackson actually sees an upswing of support in Dixie for the time being due to phobia of abolition. In the northern States, this mostly reminds them that Jackson was Calhoun's partner in crime and while he does better in presentation when the chips are down he's just as ruthless. But the North is already formerly under a boot so little to be done there.

Finding out why the DUAY did not answer Gaines call will be important. Some possibilities:

1. They simply felt Gaines lacked the means to win. That the best Gaines could do is found a united States of the Praire under British protection. Unacceptable.

2. They view Gaines Republican ideals as unsustainable. Their goal is now an imperial system like Mexico, but with no nobility and an elected Emperor from a democratic congress. They feel restoring the old ways will just offer a respite at best from tyranny.

3. They opposed his abolition. While some DUAY members are abolitionists they favor a gradual approach and certainly are not going to incite armed revolt. While more will say perhaps that slavery is something that should go, its a vague brighter future deal and they ave and want no plan for now on the issue.

Others claim the issue is too divisive regardless of right or wrong, they need to unite the peopel to gain liberty; and Gaines failure shows as proof they claim abolition will cost you more than it gets you. Their assertion is once the dictatorship is overthrown then America can properly sit down and figure out how to best deal with this issue. Anything before that is just foolishly putting the cart before the horse.

4. Gaines was not one of them. And while at least Lee is implied to have served under him, they were not confident that Gaines would not be either another tyrant or a closest Neoloyalist selling out the country something. Their goal is not the destruction of the dictatorship, that is the means to their wend, a restored proud and democratic America.

XXX

I think we are about to see at least one Wounded Knee play out on the Praire. I would also not be surprised if Jackson has the tribes forced out of AU territory at gunpoint, into Mexico or BNA. Mexico seems more likely possibly sowing the seeds for the Mexican War down the line.

Also I still think there will be at least an attempted second Federal revolt. A little rule of cool for a Gettysburg declaration by a Federal hero returned from exile:

"The moment I've waited for has come. To prove all the heroes who died here didn't die in vain. For the rebirth of the ideals of the Founders, for the success of the Federal Revolution. Gettysburg! I have returned!
 
Between the Hawaiian Kingdom in the north east Pacific & the United Maori Kingdoms in the south west Pacific are a number of polynesian islands that in OTL were taken by the European powers. If this two island kingdoms could work with each other they could bring together places which have valuable resources they which they couldn't exploit own like Tonga, Fiji, New Caledonia, Samoa, Tahiti, Vanuatu, Nauru etc into trade/protection pact called the Moana Alliance. Moana is not just a Disney movie but the word commonly used by various Pacific island peoples for the ocean.
 
Between the Hawaiian Kingdom in the north east Pacific & the United Maori Kingdoms in the south west Pacific are a number of polynesian islands that in OTL were taken by the European powers. If this two island kingdoms could work with each other they could bring together places which have valuable resources they which they couldn't exploit own like Tonga, Fiji, New Caledonia, Samoa, Tahiti, Vanuatu, Nauru etc into trade/protection pact called the Moana Alliance. Moana is not just a Disney movie but the word commonly used by various Pacific island peoples for the ocean.

I once read that OTL the last Hawaiian King dreamed of a Polynesian Confederation, and tried to support the Samoan ruler against colonizers. Alas it was a failed venture. But perhaps ITTL the idea could take off sooner and the stronger Hawaii with a possible ally in the Maori could bring other nations of the region under its umbrella. Not sure how benevolent ITTL Hawaii would be towards junior partners of course; power corrupts and all that. Still I could see it going better than the European rule certainly.
 
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Kingdom of Hawaii Wikibox
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Excellent update and wikibox, but...
They do. Sarawak as in the modern day province of sarawak in malaysia is the size of the country approximately. Still it is interesting how such a white christian dynasty from commoner origins will rule a dominantly muslim state.
I should point out here: modern Sarawak at least is not predominantly Muslim. It's actually known for being the only part of Malaysia where Christianity is the majority religion. Now, while Christianity won't have spread at this point in time, conversions seem to have predominantly been among the animist population, so one could infer that the majority of Sarawakians are animists right now.

Granted, @Al-numbers and @NickBana would be the better people to ask about this, but I thought I should raise that.
 
“The Chinese Empires of old and new for centuries and millennia had stood as the sole superpowers of East Asia, placing multiple kingdoms and countries under their boot as tributary states. The Han Dynasty, the Tang Dynasty, the Song Dynasty, the Yuan Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty and at the current time in the 1800s the Qing Dynasty continued this age old tradition, and many countries in Asia paid tribute to the Chinese emperor, recognizing him as the celestial sovereign of eastern asia.

However with power and times of peace (other than a few rebellions here and there) came hubris. With hubris came decay in the structure of the Qing Empire, and yet no one remained aware of the fact, at least that was the case within the group of people in the empire that mattered. One Chinese civil servant whose name has been lost in the annals in history, apparently from Mongolia writes in a letter found in the Peking Library three years ago writes

“The Russians are lusting after the Amur region, as well as the Tuvan region. The Tuvans cry out asking for aid from the Celestial Emperor, and the Manchurian tribes who call Amur their home uneasily send petitions to the imperial court asking for aid to stop the Russian settlements in the lands. The Japanese have managed to end their civil conflict, and seem to be entering a time of modernization, and the Ryukans send peculiar messages of modernization on part of their monarch, adapting to the English way of technology, if not life. Our bureaucracy has become bloated, and inefficient, and our technology is falling behind. We must act now, or we will pay for this in blood. I can guarantee it.”

So it seems that at least some people within the country knew that something had to be done, or the country was going to get a wakeup call that it wouldn’t like. Nonetheless, at the higher tier of the Qing government, no one seemed particularly worried. However on the 15th of August, 1837, the government of the Kingdom of Nepal, led by Maharajah Sri Tin, or the Prime Minister of Nepal, Bhimsen Thapa, acclaimed as the Napoleon of the Mountains declared war on the Theocracy of Tibet citing commercial disputes between Tibet and Nepal, as well as long standing border skirmishes with one another.


View attachment 621718
a portrait of Bhimsen Thapa just before the war.

Now, according to the Treaty of Thapathali in 1792, Nepal was a tributary state of the Qing Dynasty, and Tibet was an integrated Chinese vassal/autonomous province. The Chinese had been caught off-guard by the declaration of war for multiple reasons. First and foremost, they didn’t think that Nepal would declare war at all as the last time Nepal and China had clashed, China had advanced around to just ten kilometers away from the Nepalese capital before Nepal capitulated. Second reason of all, the Celestial court had sent delegates to Kathmandu to try and mediate the commercial dispute between Tibet and Nepal, however it seemed that it had failed.

In regards to Nepalese military inferiority, that was certainly true numerically, however that was not true on overall terms. Ever since the late 1820s Bhimsen Thapa had taken the country of Nepal into a modernization spree, the country entered the gunpowder warfare era pretty quick, and supervisors from Britain had taught the Nepalese the tactics of modern warfare as well. The army was expanded from 40,000 men to 100,000 over the course of the last decade, forming a large and professional army, worrying even the British at times, even though Britain and Nepal were allied nations. Well trained, well equipped, modernized, and led by revolutionary and legendary leaders in their own right such as Balbhadra Kunwar, Bir Narsingh Thapa, and Bilnir Rana, the Nepalese were about the stun the eastern and oriental world.

The Nepalese knew one major flaw and problem for the Chinese. The Chinese had a large empire, and their armies were either all concentrated in the main urban centers, or spread out in the far strung out provinces, because of the need of garrisoning. The 1st Sino-Nepalese War had seen Chinese intervention become successful because coincidentally, an army was being sent to the west to fight in Central Asia and Turkestan, and the army was diverted south when war broke out. No such arrangement existed now. Due to the Eight Trigram Rebellion a decade or two ago, the major Chinese forces were stationed in Central China instead.

Leaving only 12,000 men to garrison the country itself, around 88,000 Nepalese troops invaded Tibet. The 1st Army spearheaded by Balbhadra Kunwar had 50,000 men and followed the main path through the Araniko trail towards Lhasa, whilst around 25,000 men under Bir Narsingh Thapa invaded from the Sikkim corridor. The rest of the forces, some 13,000 strong were placed under command of General Bilnir Rana who was ordered to take the far western tracts of Tibet.

The feeble and ill-equipped Tibetan defenses at the border fell to modern howitzers pretty quickly and the great Tibetan fortress of Jhunga at the Nepalese border fell without a proper fight as a cannonade broke through the front wall allowing Gurkha troops to pour into the citadel of the fort. Lhasa after hearing of the fall of their major forts, formally petitioned Beijing for aid and asked the Celestial Xianfeng Emperor to intervene in the war in favor of the Tibetans.


View attachment 621719
The Xianfeng Emperor.

At first the Xianfeng emperor ignored these requests, hoping that Nepal and Tibet could sort this war between themselves. However when he heard of the unprecedented scale of which Nepal had invaded Tibet with he backtracked, and ordered the banner armies in Qinghai and Sinkiang to march south to Tibet and aid the Tibetans, without actually declaring war on the Nepalese. He formally invited the Nepalese diplomats to Peking to discuss negotiations before hostilities could even properly begin.

However neither the diplomats nor Bhimsen Thapa wanted to negotiate, not when they had the upper hand. An old dream of the Nepalese, and by extension the Bhutanese as well, the idea of an united Himalayan Empire was being laid out by the Nepalese durbar in its fullest.” Origins of the Himalayan Empire: The Fall of the Qing Dynasty, and the Rise of the New Dynasty. University of Shanghai, 2008.
There was a war between the East India Company & Nepal in 1816. Nepal lost some territory. The East India Company was still in control in 1837. They might have tolerated a larger Nepali army if they knew it was directed at Tibet, but Nepal couldn't really have done this without EIC agreement and support.
 
And now I wanna do a timeline where the American Revolution fails/doesn't happen and we have a Dominion of North America instead of a Canada and U.S.
OTL to some extent is both an America wank and a Canada wank. Would Louisiana have been sold by the French to the British? The US invented manifest destiny, and BNA followed suit. A unitary BNA based on 1776 probably would never have reached the West Coast and may well be smaller than either the US or Canada now.
 
Thoughts?
You haven't mentioned the British monarchy, or if you have, I missed it. George IV's daughter Princess Charlotte died in 1817, together with her mother. Since this is after the POD, maybe she survived, maybe her Mum survived and had a son. Queen Victoria is butterflied away. And if William IV was butterflied away, the capital of South Australia wouldn't be named after his wife because she'd never be Queen. Maybe they would have named the SA capital after the prime minister of the time, Lord Melbourne and then what would they have named the Victorian capital?
 
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WHO DISTURBS MY PEACEFUL REST!!! :p

Granted, @Al-numbers and @NickBana would be the better people to ask about this, but I thought I should raise that.
Oh, it's you. What's up?

They do. Sarawak as in the modern day province of sarawak in malaysia is the size of the country approximately. Still it is interesting how such a white christian dynasty from commoner origins will rule a dominantly muslim state.
Last time I checked, Sarawak is 43% Christian, 14% Buddhist, and 32% Islam. This is 2010 survey.

In 1950s, it was the other way. Chinese make 50% of the populations, while Malay is 10%.

And in late 1800s, Muslim populations are not yet jumped in numbers, especially when the Vaie Segan tribes were not yet converted to Islam(conversions happened in early 1900s).

Plus, unlike neighboring states, Sarawakian Muslims at this time practiced syncretic branch of Islam. Let's just say they mix and match Islam and local beliefs.

And one more thing! Sarawak is the about the size of Benelux, at the minimum.
 
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OTL to some extent is both an America wank and a Canada wank. Would Louisiana have been sold by the French to the British? The US invented manifest destiny, and BNA followed suit. A unitary BNA based on 1776 probably would never have reached the West Coast and may well be smaller than either the US or Canada now.
Following the Treaty of Paris at the end of the Seven Year war France ceded all of it's territory east of the Mississippi to Britain, Britain also got Florida which they had already captured from Spain. Spain was compensated by France for getting them into this mess through the secret Treaty of Fontainebleu where it received the French Territory west of the Mississippi & New Orleans in 1762.

Spain would most likely no sell the territory to Britain unless they really need the money to fund putting down rebellions in their more profitable colonies in South America. Also there was probably no way to stop people moving west across the river and settling if like in so many other parts of the world the local authorities tried to force they out the British would end up sending in troops to aid the settlers defend themselves and seize the land.
 
Following the Treaty of Paris at the end of the Seven Year war France ceded all of it's territory east of the Mississippi to Britain, Britain also got Florida which they had already captured from Spain. Spain was compensated by France for getting them into this mess through the secret Treaty of Fontainebleu where it received the French Territory west of the Mississippi & New Orleans in 1762.

Spain would most likely no sell the territory to Britain unless they really need the money to fund putting down rebellions in their more profitable colonies in South America. Also there was probably no way to stop people moving west across the river and settling if like in so many other parts of the world the local authorities tried to force they out the British would end up sending in troops to aid the settlers defend themselves and seize the land.
Thanks for the reply. None of us know of course. Even if it could be proven that the chance is small, it doesn't make it impossible, so it'd be fun to read a TL based on that premise. Whenever these ideas are raised, one thinks, gee that'd be cool, so to get to the coolest option of a BNA equivalent to OTL US + Canada, it needs a plausible scenario to acquire Louisiana, Texas, New Mexico, California, Oregon + BC, and Alaska. So good luck.
 
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