WI: CP's Victory at Monte Grappa

[Fehérvári]

There may have been withdrawn but possibly not soon enough; transfers of German forces from the Eastern Front began soon after the Treaty was signed but by March when the offensive kicked off few had arrived yet.

The Italian Front was much closer to the Western Front than the Eastern Front was and the the German forces were withdrawn from there earlier. If I'm not mistaken, most of those forces participated in Operation Micheal as part of the 17th Army.

Germans did come with 3 km of taking Amiens, afterall, which would've crippled the BEF and crashed the French war economy.

Amiens sure was important, but that might be a bit of strong claim. Otherwise, what the Germans really lacked during Operation Michael were fast mobile forces, which could capitalise on the breakthrough. Since tanks and armoured cars weren't really an option for them, I'm talking about cavalry. Maybe Austria-Hungary could provide some cavalry divisions?

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

Maybe Austria-Hungary could provide some cavalry divisions?

What about some Galician Ułans or Hungarian Hussars? For that they would be incredibly useful, and we could see the last decisive cavalry engagement in war history...but i think that the Ułans would be a step ahead from the hussars because of all the clusterfuck of modern war. I think that some 4-5 cavalry division wouldn't be that hard.

 

[Fehérvári]

What about some Galician Ułans or Hungarian Hussars?

The only difference was just the name itself by this point. My inner little patriot would prefer Hungarian hussars though ^^
It would be like Berlin during the Seven Years' War all over again! They wouldn't have to leave early this time around though...

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

I have some wonderful picture of Monte Grappa but the size is too large to upload...

 

[M79]

I have some wonderful picture of Monte Grappa but the size is too large to upload...

Try converting the picture to .png format?

 

[Wendell]

If the Entente still win the war despite the situation in Italy, it will do that much more to hinder Italian ambitions at and subsequent to the peace conference.

 

[Alpha413]

If the Entente still win the war despite the situation in Italy, it will do that much more to hinder Italian ambitions at and subsequent to the peace conference.

D'Annunzio might take power in that case. It was a concern in OTL as well, but nothing really came of it. With Italian Nationalists being incensed by this, D'Annunzio might be convinced to march on Rome and establish a... whatever Fiume was in OTL (a pseudo-syndacalist, fascist, semi-democratic, corporatist, vaguely socially progressive state) in Italy. Fun times.
Alternatively you can could see an Italian equivalent to the Weimar Republic.

 

[Fehérvári]

If the Entente still win the war despite the situation in Italy, it will do that much more to hinder Italian ambitions at and subsequent to the peace conference.

That's an understatement. An Italian loss at Monte Grappa means that they will have to retreat atleast back to the Astico River, although that might not be a sufficient line of defense, so they might even have to fall back to the Adige River. Worst case scenario, the new frontline would be on the Lake Garda–Mincio River–Po River line. In either way, Venice would be lost.

Venice, together with the numerous newly acquired railway lines would improve the Austro-Hungarian supply situation tremendously compared to OTL. Furthermore, with a position so forward to the West, there would be little to no incentive to launch a new offensive in the area, as it could only lengthen the frontline without any other clear benefits. This means, that the Austro-Hungarian defenses through 1918 would be much-much stronger, and even some forces could be spared for other fronts. I believe, that in a situation such as this, Italy would be unable to achieve a breakthrough if they attempt one.

Now I wonder, what could be the Entente approach towards the Austro-Hungarians and Bulgarians be like, if the Italian and Macedonian Fronts hold strong, while the West collapses?

 

[Wendell]

I had not looked at this from the point of view of specifically impacting the fate of Austria-Hungary after the war.

 

[Fehérvári]

So...
1. The Italians drop out of the war and demobilise.
2. The Austro-Hungarians occupy all of Veneto and seize as much of their weaponry as they can.
3. Austria-Hungary demobilises a small portion of its army to revitalise its economy.
4. Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, the militarily much less dependent Austria-Hungary successfully asserts itself in the matter of the Kholm region, which is given to Poland.
5. 15-20 K.u.K divisions are sent to the Western Front to aid the Germans' Spring Offensives, 5 divisions are sent to Macedonia to help the Bulgarians and apart from occupying forces and a small strategic reserve, Austria-Hungary demobilises its excess forces.
6. During Operation Micheal, Germans manage to capture Amiéns with the utilisation of the Austro-Hungarian cavalry. ('cause why not?)

What happens next?

 

[Admiral Spaun]

. 15-20 K.u.K divisions are sent to the Western Front to aid the Germans' Spring Offensives

I doubt Austria Hungary would throw even more men into a meat grinder. If Italy makes peace they would demobilize part of their army instead to deal with the home front. The rest would probably go to the Balkans or Eastern Europe.

What happens next?

The Americans would still arrive, Germany would still be blockaded and out of manpower, and the Spring Offensives still wouldn't achieve success. The war would probably carry on into 1919 and still ends with a German surrender. By late 1917 the war was lost for the Central Powers and the only thing that would change would be casualty numbers.

 

[Fehérvári]

I doubt Austria Hungary would throw even more men into a meat grinder.

It was all known, that the war would be ultimately decided on the Western Front. They would support their ally to the best of their ability, why wouldn't they? Even if they're reluctant to do so, German aknowledgment of the resolution to the Kholm question in their favour and the promises of Habsburg monarchs for the Polish and Ukrainian thrones could easily convince them to help. If the Sixtus Affair still comes to light, that could be a strong motivator too.

If Italy makes peace they would demobilize part of their army instead to deal with the home front.

I wrote that too though. The Austro-Hungarian Army had around 7,8 million men in its rank in 1917. They can both demobilise and send force to the West, especially after Brest-Litovsk.

The Americans would still arrive

If Operation Micheal captures Amiéns though, the supply situation for the BEF would become very difficult. The extra manpower and equipment provided by the Austro-Hungarians then could allow them to attempt Operation George instead of the OTL smaller scale offensive of Georgette. If Hazebrouck falls, then the entire British supply system North of the Somme could collapse.

 

[Ombra]

The question is explored in depth in one of my favourite TLs on this site, A Day In July, which I 100% recommend -> https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-day-in-july-an-early-20th-century-timeline.446158/

 

[M79]

So...
1. The Italians drop out of the war and demobilise.
2. The Austro-Hungarians occupy all of Veneto and seize as much of their weaponry as they can.
3. Austria-Hungary demobilises a small portion of its army to revitalise its economy.
4. Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, the militarily much less dependent Austria-Hungary successfully asserts itself in the matter of the Kholm region, which is given to Poland.
5. 15-20 K.u.K divisions are sent to the Western Front to aid the Germans' Spring Offensives, 5 divisions are sent to Macedonia to help the Bulgarians and apart from occupying forces and a small strategic reserve, Austria-Hungary demobilises its excess forces.
6. During Operation Micheal, Germans manage to capture Amiéns with the utilisation of the Austro-Hungarian cavalry. ('cause why not?)

What happens next?

Rome's withdrawal from the war is likely to trigger the UK and France to seriously consider their positions, especially if Russia still goes Brest-Litovsk. Could Austria move troops into Ottoman territory to aid against the British and threaten the Suez Canal?

 

[Fehérvári]

Could Austria move troops into Ottoman territory to aid against the British and threaten the Suez Canal?

Even if they would send reinforcements, Jerusalem is already taken by the British by that point. Suez is out of reach. Maybe a very small detachment could be sent, but aside from holding the line, I don't see them achieving much. Demobilisation takes priority though, committing to seemingly worthless fronts is highly unlikely, imo.

Rome's withdrawal from the war is likely to trigger the UK and France to seriously consider their positions, especially if Russia still goes Brest-Litovsk.

The Germans would definitely want to make the most of their sudden upper hand, I don't think they would settle with anything, which the Entente at that point would be willing offer. US forces are on the way too, so that might make the Brits and French still remain confident in an eventual victory.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

It was all known, that the war would be ultimately decided on the Western Front. They would support their ally to the best of their ability, why wouldn't they? Even if they're reluctant to do so, German aknowledgment of the resolution to the Kholm question in their favour and the promises of Habsburg monarchs for the Polish and Ukrainian thrones could easily convince them to help. If the Sixtus Affair still comes to light, that could be a strong motivator too.

I wrote that too though. The Austro-Hungarian Army had around 7,8 million men in its rank in 1917. They can both demobilise and send force to the West, especially after Brest-Litovsk.

If Operation Micheal captures Amiéns though, the supply situation for the BEF would become very difficult. The extra manpower and equipment provided by the Austro-Hungarians then could allow them to attempt Operation George instead of the OTL smaller scale offensive of Georgette. If Hazebrouck falls, then the entire British supply system North of the Somme could collapse.

Are you sure that they had 7.8 million men in their army, by 1917? I thought that was around the total number of soldiers that they mobilized during the war.

 

[Fehérvári]

Are you sure that they had 7.8 million men in their army, by 1917? I thought that was around the total number of soldiers that they mobilized during the war.

Yes, you're right. That's the number of all mobilised men by the end 1917. A good portion of those are already killed, captured or permanently injured, but given that many former POWs could return to the army now that both Russia and Italy gets out of the war, I felt that number is a good indicator atleast. The fact, that I don't know the exact number of active troops in 1917 also propelled me to use that figure. Sorry for the disinformation.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

Yes, you're right. That's the number of all mobilised men by the end 1917. A good portion of those are already killed, captured or permanently injured, but given that many former POWs could return to the army now that both Russia and Italy gets out of the war, I felt that number is a good indicator atleast. The fact, that I don't know the exact number of active troops in 1917 also propelled me to use that figure. Sorry for the disinformation.

It’s fine.👍

 

[Fehérvári]

@Lee-Sensei After a quick digging, I actually found some numbers for the active army from the beginning of 1917. According to Galántai József's: The First World War, Austria-Hungary had 3,5 million men in 71 infantry and 11 cavalry divisions within its army at the the time. 41 infantry and 11 cavalry divisions served on the Eastern Front, 28,5 infrantry divisions on the Italian Front and 1,5 infantry divisions on the Balkans.

 

[M79]

Even if they would send reinforcements, Jerusalem is already taken by the British by that point. Suez is out of reach. Maybe a very small detachment could be sent, but aside from holding the line, I don't see them achieving much. Demobilisation takes priority though, committing to seemingly worthless fronts is highly unlikely, imo.

Yet for the entire campaign combined casualties on both sides number roughly 70,000 and the Austrians can gain points with what is likely to become the world's leading oil power. Jerusalem fell only at the end of 1917 and is what, 60-ish miles to Gaza and the antebellum frontier? From there the main question is logistics and getting to the Suez which is probably about twice that distance or roughly 120 miles farther. Bomber aircraft might be able to reach the canal at that point as well.

The Germans would definitely want to make the most of their sudden upper hand, I don't think they would settle with anything, which the Entente at that point would be willing offer. US forces are on the way too, so that might make the Brits and French still remain confident in an eventual victory.

Agreed though without the Italians to ask as a soak for the Austrian army and a sudden recharge to their economy and/or military it will lead to second thought on behalf of the Allies, especially if the East has fallen and the Spring Offensives have not yet begun.