WI: CP's Victory at Monte Grappa

Talus I of Dixie

Talus I of Dixie

What if the Austro-Hungarian-German army under Otto von Below could take advantage of his numerical superiority and seized Monte Grappa, thereby breaking the left flank of the Piave front and opening doors for the capture of Venice, beyond the capture of the Fourth and (which left over from the) Second Italian Armies.

What would be the repercussions of such a disaster for the Italians? They would have lost 2 armies and probably the CPs would be advancing to the Po River. Would the collapse of the Piave forehead be a war ender?

Moreover, what would be the repercussions for the Central Powers and the Entente? They have just seen their enemies/allies being completely destroyed in a single offensive. In addition, it must be a great morale booster for the austro-hungarians, who were from a desperate situation, to be well within italian territory. What would be the subsequent operations of the CPs after this?
 

M79

If Italy loses Venice she likely breaks, especially if *any* sort of secure beachhead exists across the Po. From there Austria can reinforce Germany (or restore her own economy somewhat) but unless it causes additional panic among the French or organize a massive Germano-Austrian joint offensive in early 1918 then maybe it delays the war but won't win it.

Most likely you get a peace conference and a S.q.A. in the West, loss of all German colonies (and *maybe* Lorraine), and recognition of Brest-Litovsk. Luxembourg either remains German or is traded for Lorraine.
 
Talus I of Dixie

Talus I of Dixie

M79 said:
If Italy loses Venice she likely breaks, especially if *any* sort of secure beachhead exists across the Po. From there Austria can reinforce Germany (or restore her own economy somewhat) but unless it causes additional panic among the French or organize a massive Germano-Austrian joint offensive in early 1918 then maybe it delays the war but won't win it.

Most likely you get a peace conference and a S.q.A. in the West, loss of all German colonies (and *maybe* Lorraine), and recognition of Brest-Litovsk. Luxembourg either remains German or is traded for Lorraine.
Click to expand...

You think that Germany will lose all of the colonies? This depends on the outcome of this alleged offensive, beyond that, an italian exit from the war liberates 7 German divisions and about 40 for the Austro-Hungarians.

These troops can do many things, especially with the russian exit from the war shortly thereafter. It would be wise to split these troops to assist at Salonika Front and the Western Front. The most likely scenario would be a general S.q.A, since the power of that offensive will be considerably greater than OTL, and the Vardar Offensive probably would fail.

Beyond that, what you think that would happen in Italy after this?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Talus I of Dixie said:
You think that Germany will lose all of the colonies? This depends on the outcome of this alleged offensive, beyond that, an italian exit from the war liberates 7 German divisions and about 40 for the Austro-Hungarians.

These troops can do many things, especially with the russian exit from the war shortly thereafter. It would be wise to split these troops to assist at Salonika Front and the Western Front. The most likely scenario would be a general S.q.A, since the power of that offensive will be considerably greater than OTL, and the Vardar Offensive probably would fail.

Beyond that, what you think that would happen in Italy after this?
Click to expand...
By 1917-1918 nothing short of taking and holding Paris would prevent Germany from losing all of its colonies.
 
TimTurner

TimTurner

M79 said:
If Italy loses Venice she likely breaks, especially if *any* sort of secure beachhead exists across the Po. From there Austria can reinforce Germany (or restore her own economy somewhat) but unless it causes additional panic among the French or organize a massive Germano-Austrian joint offensive in early 1918 then maybe it delays the war but won't win it.

Most likely you get a peace conference and a S.q.A. in the West, loss of all German colonies (and *maybe* Lorraine), and recognition of Brest-Litovsk. Luxembourg either remains German or is traded for Lorraine.
Click to expand...
what is an S.q.A?
 

M79

S.q.A. is indeed status quo antebellum. And any recognition of Brest-Litovsk by the West is still a victory for the CP in the long run. Without Italy to soak troops, Austrian reinforcements in the West and the critical morale shifts that result on both sides will have them probably coming to the table. Negotiations could still fizzle out but a Spring offensive with combined forces and a lighter peace treaty for Italy mean the Spring Offensive is likely to hit harder and potentially meet its objectives. If the CP can manage it then the resulting peace in the west will be tough if not ruthless
 
Last edited:

BigBlueBox

Banned
At this point of the war, Germany will either win in early 1918 or not at all. Knocking out Italy could certainly make the Spring Offensive successful, but if it doesn’t then Germany is screwed. With more German divisions on the Western Front the Hundred Days Offensive will not happen, but time is on the Entente’s side as the numbers of American, Brazilian, and colonial troops on the frontlines increase and Germany’s supplies decrease. Ultimately, the Entente will not accept Brest-Litovsk unless they have no choice, so if Germany fails to deal a a decisive blow it will have to either accept giving up the Brest-Litovsk gains for peace or fighting to the bitter end, with similar results to OTL.
 

lukedalton

Talus I of Dixie said:
What if the Austro-Hungarian-German army under Otto von Below could take advantage of his numerical superiority and seized Monte Grappa, thereby breaking the left flank of the Piave front and opening doors for the capture of Venice, beyond the capture of the Fourth and (which left over from the) Second Italian Armies.

What would be the repercussions of such a disaster for the Italians? They would have lost 2 armies and probably the CPs would be advancing to the Po River. Would the collapse of the Piave forehead be a war ender?

Moreover, what would be the repercussions for the Central Powers and the Entente? They have just seen their enemies/allies being completely destroyed in a single offensive. In addition, it must be a great morale booster for the austro-hungarians, who were from a desperate situation, to be well within italian territory. What would be the subsequent operations of the CPs after this?
Click to expand...


Taking in consideration that the victory was a total surprise for the italian command and that the A-H were at the limit of their logistic line, meaning that even in case of the creation of the pocket, their capacity to hold it will not be strong, expecially with the arrival of the Entente reinforcements (that OTL have seen little or not fight).
 
Talus I of Dixie

Talus I of Dixie

M79 said:
S.q.A. is indeed status quo antebellum. And any recognition of Brest-Litovsk by the West is still a victory for the CP in the long run. Without Italy to soak troops, Austrian reinforcements in the West and the critical morale shifts that result on both sides will have them probably coming to the table. Negotiations could still fizzle out but a Spring offensive with combined forces and a lighter peace treaty for Italy mean the Spring Offensive is likely to hit harder and potentially meet its objectives. If the CP can manage it then the resulting peace in the west will be tough if not ruthless
Click to expand...

How tough? Like, all of the Septemberprogramm? Or less tough?
 

M79

Talus I of Dixie said:
How tough? Like, all of the Septemberprogramm? Or less tough?
Click to expand...

A German Spring Offensive that can somehow capture Paris in 1918 following a collapse of and peace with Italy gives Berlin (and Vienna) basically carte blanche for the peace treaty. In the extreme and just for the West, look for massive reparations to be paid by France, German annexation of everything east of the Meuse, separation of satellite Flanders aling with Wallonia (the latter getting Nord and Pais-de-Calais so Germany may have naval bases), creation of a German economic council binding its new satellites to Berlin, and probably a good chunk of Mittelafrika becoming s reality. Occupational zones might include the whole of former Belgium and a swath of mortheastern France running from German Lorraine to the North Sea. UK will escape with reparations, the US might not even get that, but France will be broken and her ability to make war all but curtailed. I would not be surprised if France were formally made to permanently rescind any/all claims to Alsace and Lorraine, maybe an independent/special status Franche-Comte, Provence, or Brittany also come about as staging for their separation after the inevitable next war.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
M79 said:
A German Spring Offensive that can somehow capture Paris in 1918 following a collapse of and peace with Italy gives Berlin (and Vienna) basically carte blanche for the peace treaty. In the extreme and just for the West, look for massive reparations to be paid by France, German annexation of everything east of the Meuse, separation of satellite Flanders aling with Wallonia (the latter getting Nord and Pais-de-Calais so Germany may have naval bases), creation of a German economic council binding its new satellites to Berlin, and probably a good chunk of Mittelafrika becoming s reality. Occupational zones might include the whole of former Belgium and a swath of mortheastern France running from German Lorraine to the North Sea. UK will escape with reparations, the US might not even get that, but France will be broken and her ability to make war all but curtailed. I would not be surprised if France were formally made to permanently rescind any/all claims to Alsace and Lorraine, maybe an independent/special status Franche-Comte, Provence, or Brittany also come about as staging for their separation after the inevitable next war.
Click to expand...
They can either expand into Western Europe or get their pre-war colonies back and some French and Belgium colonies. Not both. If Germany doesn’t vacate Belgium and France then Britain won’t give Germany its colonies back. For that matter, if there is no Belgium then the Belgian Congo is now the British Congo. Britain might just take the French colonies too if France completely collapses. Britain won’t pay any reparations to anyone in either case.
 
History Learner

History Learner

Banned
If Germany overruns France above the Somme, the British will have to evacuate much of Southeast England; in that context, allowing the Germans to expand into Western Europe and in Africa both is preferable than the aforementioned.
 

M79

Keep Cardena in charge and lose Diaz as a consequence. Mincio is 60 miles away, together with the Po this is the next available line of defense and probably the last viable one. Italy loses Venice and probably offers peace in December just before Christmas.
 
TimTurner

TimTurner

M79 said:
Keep Cardena in charge and lose Diaz as a consequence. Mincio is 60 miles away, together with the Po this is the next available line of defense and probably the last viable one. Italy loses Venice and probably offers peace in December just before Christmas.
Click to expand...
Wow, so the first time in the war prognostications it would be over before Christmas would actually be accurate.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
History Learner said:
If Germany overruns France above the Somme, the British will have to evacuate much of Southeast England; in that context, allowing the Germans to expand into Western Europe and in Africa both is preferable than the aforementioned.
Click to expand...
And why exactly would they do that? Because Southeast England would be in artillery range? You think the UK will meekly accept Germany becoming the undisputed global hegemon simply because Germany can lob some artillery shells across the channel? Something that they could do whenever they wanted if they were allowed to keep territory in Western Europe?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top