Could WWI start in 1913 over Albania?
- Thread starter raharris1973
- Start date
Germaniac
Donor
Fine, I'll play... the Great Powers stepped in to prevent Serbia from running ruffshot over non-Serbian ethnic groups in the region... because allowing Serbia to seize non-Serbian lands would destabilize the region to a far greater extent than allowing the Albanians statehood... because the Serbians would have little stopping them from committing the same atrocities they claim to have suffered under Ottoman rule... because Austria-Hungary and Italy would never allow it and would inevitably lead to further armed conflict... because Serbia's very existence was a result of the great powers allowing it to exist as an independent state with the treay of Berlin...
I'll patiently wait your reply to my entirely reasonable question...
we're in agreement by jo were in agreement
some damn fool thing in the Balkans and that thing was Serbia I'm trying to put Serbia in a position where if it does anything stupid it will get destroyed that's the whole goal and no one will come to their aid because Russia will have Bulgaria
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Well there's the thing, they could have easily fought in it. Austria was actually a pen stroke away from invading Serbia over the matter. If anything the diplomatic process saved Serbia's skin.
Austria and Italy both had adamant interest in creating an independent Albania- mainly to keep it "on ice" for them to fight over later, and secondarily to keep Serbia et al from taking it. Insisting on annexing the province (which the Serbs were stubborn over) would be all but guaranteed to trigger both Austrian and Italian intervention- which is why the Russians eventually forced Belgrade to back down.
IOW if Russia et al felt Albania was worth going to war over the war would have happened in 1913, but with Italy in the Central Powers from the beginning. IF Russia DoWs Austria over Albania, Germany mobilizes and Italy will probably feel the need to intervene as well- the chief of staff at this time, Alberto Pollio, was a strong proponent of the Triple Alliance, and Italy was as mentioned willing to go to war to stop Serbia from unilaterally annexing the territory, so there would be a strong compulsion to intervene if only to stop Russia+France from getting an outpost almost within sight of the Italian coast (this is how it would have seemed to decision makers in Rome).
The question becomes- why would Russia risk this when OTL they clearly avoided the risk?
IOW if Russia et al felt Albania was worth going to war over the war would have happened in 1913, but with Italy in the Central Powers from the beginning. IF Russia DoWs Austria over Albania, Germany mobilizes and Italy will probably feel the need to intervene as well- the chief of staff at this time, Alberto Pollio, was a strong proponent of the Triple Alliance, and Italy was as mentioned willing to go to war to stop Serbia from unilaterally annexing the territory, so there would be a strong compulsion to intervene if only to stop Russia+France from getting an outpost almost within sight of the Italian coast (this is how it would have seemed to decision makers in Rome).
The question becomes- why would Russia risk this when OTL they clearly avoided the risk?
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
So you're saying Serbia and Greece would never push it to the point where it comes to war?
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
I dunno - maybe the Russians are just extra sore over the Bosnian affair of the years before, and stupidly confident for some reason. Or they decide the risk of offending Austria and Italy is worth it, to be able to keep *both* Serbia and Bulgaria as happy clients.
Or maybe the Austrians (& maybe Italians) accelerate the crisis by pushing for a showdown with Serbia, and their vehicle for doing so is insisting on some terms that Serbia absolutely cannot accept, for example, there must not only be an Albania, but it must have all of Kosovo. And in turn, the Russians feel that is a step too far so they have to back up the Serbs. The Germans meanwhile feel like they need to 'blank check' the Austrians and Italians, after all, when else could there ever be a crisis again where Austria and Italy are on the same side?
marathag
Banned
Russians had just completed that on the Circassians in the 1860, and killed a half million of them, expelling the rest to the Ottoman Empire
and the rest of the world was still perfectly fine except in Cotton from the United States from slave labor and the British Empire was currently the biggest drug exporter in history yeah let's try to find something in 1890-1913 please the world was a completely different place then
Germaniac
Donor
None of that excuses your attitude towards the forced subjugation of Albanians for the economic benefit of Serbia.
They were fairly sour over that already- and the crisis was a couple months, nearly two years if one counts the Italo Turkish War and Balkan War.
Maybe have Bulgaria manage to take Constantinople, or a Maine style incident with an Austrian vessel sent to Durres, or move up the assassination attempt on Franz Ferdinand. IF Russia decided to go to war, then that would set off the chain reaction as OTL- but not quite the same, as Russia did partially mobilize during the crisis to keep Auatria from intervening.
Actually maybe have Italy either suffer more during the war (sticking in longer) or do better and push for gains in the Balkans. Something with the Dardanelles? The Italians made a raid on Gallipoli IIRC. Really I think constantinople or Armenia would have to be the dealbreaker pressing the russians not to back down- that or Serbia, Greece, or Bulgaria looking on the verge of defeat/occupation by the Ottomans and/or Austrians (maybe Greece tries to take Rhodes, causing a clash with Italy? The Balkan league losing the Greek navy to the Italians doing a drive by could be enough to allow the Turks to win the war) since somehow I doubt the Young Turks would be happy with status quo ante if they managed to push the Serbs back over the border. There is no immediate impetus to war, nor insult to bonor- no perceived existential threat to Russian interests in the Balkans- quite the contrary!
lol!
what did I just say to you I want to put Serbia in a position where they can't act crazy and if they do they don't cause a World War they are rogue nation that gets tooken down by a coalition of Nations.
Germaniac
Donor
If you want to prevent Serbia from causing WW1 then let the Ottomans win the Balkan War. But thats not what the op asked about.
here you are trying to protect the poor minority albanians and now you want the Ottoman Empire to win they would carry out Mass executions of people if they won the Balkan War you don't make any sense and I'm done you're just arguing for the sake of arguing now.