June 15, 1941 without earlier POD. After that the Reich required a defeat of the USSR simply to survive. That is, while not impossible, extremely unlikey, and requires a couple additional POD related to the Med. If the Reich leave Mussolini to his own devices, maybe, at most, providing enough stiffening to keep the Greeks from stomping his ass, that might provide enough additional combat mass to allow the capture of Moscow before the first serious snows. That, in turn might cause a series of strategic errors by Stavka as Stalin stops listening to anyone but the voices in his hear.
Of course even the above noted POD is insufficient if Hitler declares war on the U.S. Once the U.S. in all in and on track it's over.
IMO, the best chance the Reich had was to flat stop after they reached the Channel and North Sea in June of 1940. No BoB, no Sealion discussion, nada. Purely defensive activity by the Luftwaffe, no air attacks on the UK at all. Very public offer of a cease fire in place, including exchange of any prisoners wishing to return home, with the British, end of the U-Boat campaign and demilitarization, if not outright scuttling of all French warships overseen by the U.S. and the Swiss
Churchill will, of course, smell a rat, but as Bomber Command and merchant marine losses mount with zero Nazi aggression eventually the voters will get sick of fighting alone when the Reich has clearly decided it has achieved its goals and either turn Churchill out or the Government will have to accept the cease fire. This, of course, requires Hitler to actually have a lick of sense, so the odds are REALLY long, but it would give the Reich a good year to refit, train, stockpile, and prep for taking on the Bolsheviks (there is zero chance Hitler allow the "Jewish dominated" USSR to survive).
Of course even the above noted POD is insufficient if Hitler declares war on the U.S. Once the U.S. in all in and on track it's over.
IMO, the best chance the Reich had was to flat stop after they reached the Channel and North Sea in June of 1940. No BoB, no Sealion discussion, nada. Purely defensive activity by the Luftwaffe, no air attacks on the UK at all. Very public offer of a cease fire in place, including exchange of any prisoners wishing to return home, with the British, end of the U-Boat campaign and demilitarization, if not outright scuttling of all French warships overseen by the U.S. and the Swiss
Churchill will, of course, smell a rat, but as Bomber Command and merchant marine losses mount with zero Nazi aggression eventually the voters will get sick of fighting alone when the Reich has clearly decided it has achieved its goals and either turn Churchill out or the Government will have to accept the cease fire. This, of course, requires Hitler to actually have a lick of sense, so the odds are REALLY long, but it would give the Reich a good year to refit, train, stockpile, and prep for taking on the Bolsheviks (there is zero chance Hitler allow the "Jewish dominated" USSR to survive).