How late could Nazi Germany have turned the tide of war?

Just doing some uni coursework when the question came to me. Would some kind of victory as late as 1944 be possible? Defining victory as a stalemate or an armistice-something that allows Nazi Germany to survive instead of falling completey-but not a victory on the "Nazi domination of Europe" scale.
 
Last chance of a good outcome in WW2 for Germany? August 31, 1939.

Nazi economy can not survive without looting. Nazi Germany can not loot workout war. Nazi Government can not survive war.
 
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Just doing some uni coursework when the question came to me. Would some kind of victory as late as 1944 be possible? Defining victory as a stalemate or an armistice-something that allows Nazi Germany to survive instead of falling completey-but not a victory on the "Nazi domination of Europe" scale.
Short of a literal Deus Ex Machina, no. There was no way they could turn the tide in 44. The Wallies and Soviets wouldn't accept any peace where Hitler and friends remained in power.
 
While I understand the idea about the Nazi needing loot to help with the Economy I am not convinced it is IMPOSSIBLE for the Nazi government to continue without it. They would have to make changes yes but that is not 100% sure to topple them. A lot of dictators and totalitaria governments have over the years survived by the simple method of give them what they want until we have power then cut back and use the power to keep control. I think they have enough fanatics and the people have such a bad situation that they could stay in power by force.

As for the latest time they had a chance? I personally think that if they had played their cards differently they could have survived with a minor or major POD set about the time of Dunkirk. If they had just sat in France and defended Mainland Europe without attacking England. Make a show of making peace with France. Try to get on good terms with the US (yes the president won’t help but they could have played the game) I think they had a chance (not a good one but a chance).
if Germany stops attacking England a lot of people in the Empire are going to start asking why thier sons are dying to defend France when France broke the agreement and signed a separate peace with Germany. If you give those folks long enough they may very well force a de facto peace.

Reember that Churchill abd FDR can only do so much against the will of the people before they are tossed out. And n e Germany had control of France and Most of Europe they had time and territory to play a waiting game. They didn’t NEED to attack the USSR instantly as they did NEED the room. Of course the problem is getting Hitter to see it that way.
perhaps if Hitler dies of a heart attack while celebrating his victory in France?
Dont get me wrong I think it is a long shot. But it is sure a better chance then Fighting Great Brittain and the USSR and then declarein war on the largest industrial power in the world all at the same time.
 
Last chance of a good outcome in WW2 for Germany? August 31, 1939.

Nazi economy can not survive without looting. Nazi Germany can not loot workout war. Nazi Government can not survive war.
They could win with a POD in 39. This whole thing " Huuu the nazis were bad so they couldn't win" is bullshit. Poland has basically no chance. France is difficult but they did win with luck. I know that Operation Sea Lion is crazy but they could've made a good peace(for them) with the british if they had made some progress in the Mediterraneum before going east.
 
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I suppose if the Nazis had withdrawn from the West in late 1940 or early 1941, after making sure the French and others had signed up to non-agression pacts and military limits and stopped hostilities against Britain...

Churchill would have wanted to continue the fight of course but maybe he would have come under pressure to accept a white peace. However i don't see Hitler wanting that.
 
When Churchill was elected, the Nazis lost. A weaker British PM might have sought an earlier, brokered western peace, and the Nazis could have put full focus on the East.
 
The latest pod I can see is in 1941. Italy does not invade Greece so Germany does not have to intervene. That would let Barbarossa go off a few months earlier. It would find a less prepared and less organized Soviet military. If they can take Moscow and take out Stalin and enough top Soviet officials in Moscow, the remaining Soviet government weakened by infighting might agree to an armistice.
Unfortunately the Nazis are doing themselves to decades of guerrilla warfare. Eastern Europeans were not stupid once they realize General plan Oust was going into effect, everyone who could hold a gun would fight.
 
I would say that the Nazi's lost the moment they invaded rump Czechia. That was the moment everybody knew they were unreliable and they could not be trusted. That means noone wanted to make peace with them, because you could not rely on the nazi''s keeping peace. And you need to be able to make peace to win a war.
 

nbcman

Donor
The latest pod I can see is in 1941. Italy does not invade Greece so Germany does not have to intervene. That would let Barbarossa go off a few months earlier. It would find a less prepared and less organized Soviet military. If they can take Moscow and take out Stalin and enough top Soviet officials in Moscow, the remaining Soviet government weakened by infighting might agree to an armistice.
Unfortunately the Nazis are doing themselves to decades of guerrilla warfare. Eastern Europeans were not stupid once they realize General plan Oust was going into effect, everyone who could hold a gun would fight.
The Rasputitsa says hello.

Also, you may want to see the very significant amount of resources that were delivered by the Soviets in the April-June 1941 time frame that the Germans would be missing out such as the following from Wiki:

Soviet willingness to deliver increased in April, with Hitler telling German officials attempting to dissuade him of attack that concessions would be even greater if 150 German divisions were on their borders.[191] Stalin greeted Schnurre at the Moscow railroad station with the phrase "We will remain friends with you – in any event."[190] The Soviets also deferred to German demands regarding Finland, Romania and border settlements.[190] In an April 28 meeting with Hitler, German ambassador to Moscow Friedrich Werner von der Schulenburg stated that Stalin was prepared to make even further concessions, including up to 5 million tons of grain in the next year alone, with Acting Military Attache Krebs adding that the Soviets "will do anything to avoid war and yielded on every issue short of making territorial concessions."[190]

Stalin also attempted a further cautious economic appeasement of Germany, shipping items in May and June for which German firms had not even placed orders.[185] German officials concluded in May that "we could make economic demands on Moscow which would even go beyond the scope of the treaty of January 10, 1941."[185] That same month, German naval officials stated that "the Russian government is endeavoring to do everything to prevent a conflict with Germany."[185] By June 18, four days before the German invasion, the Soviet had even promised the Japanese that they could ship much greater totals along the Trans-Siberian Railway.[185]

Soviet rubber shipments greatly increased in later months, filling up German warehouses and the Soviet transports systems.[192] 76% of the total of 18,800 tons of vital rubber sent to Germany was shipped in May and June 1941.[193] 2,100 tons of it crossed the border only hours before the German invasion began.[192]
Germany would have almost no rubber stockpile if they attacked in April.
 
They might have won if they and the USSR had made a genuine alliance in 1939 but that would be ASB with the OTL Hitler, who was obsessed with conquering the USSR.
 
While I understand the idea about the Nazi needing loot to help with the Economy I am not convinced it is IMPOSSIBLE for the Nazi government to continue without it. They would have to make changes yes but that is not 100% sure to topple them.
It is hard to overstate how bad the German economy was. The Nazi economy was running on glorified IOU's like the MEFO Bills prewar, only the gold and currency seized from Austria and Czechoslovakia prevented the collapse of Germany's overseas trade. The Reichsbahn was teetering on the brink of collapse before the Germans looted rolling stock from France. The only change they can make to stave off collapse is to slash military spending and that isn't happening in Nazi Germany.
 
Just doing some uni coursework when the question came to me. Would some kind of victory as late as 1944 be possible? Defining victory as a stalemate or an armistice-something that allows Nazi Germany to survive instead of falling completey-but not a victory on the "Nazi domination of Europe" scale.
Had the Wehrmacht taken Moscow in 1941 or Fall Blau in 1942, yes, victory was possible as it would've allowed for the collapse of the USSR and the reorientation of the German economy towards fighting the Anglo-Americans to a stalemate. Had the Germans switched to the defensive in 1943 and the March 1943 assassination attempt on Hitler been successful, it is possible that the Germans could've pulled off an armistice along 1940 lines, as Stalin had peace feelers out and the end of the Eastern Front could've still allowed, with a much narrower margin, for the Germans to exhaust the Anglo-American political capital to a stalemate.

No conventional means existed, however, of winning the war in 1944. PoDs going back a few years could've allowed for a victory in 1944 via the development of nuclear weapons, though:
May 1, 1939 - Francis Penin in Paris publishes a calculation of the minimum mass of natural uranium for a chain reaction: 40 tons of uranium oxide, possibly reducible to 12 tons with a neutron reflector. In a paper two weeks later he concludes that a slow-neutron chain reaction will require only 5 tons.

December, 1939 - Rudolf Peierls in Birmingham publishes an improved calculation of the critical mass, extending Perrin's results to neutron multiplication not small compared to 1; results are stated as general formulas. The article presumably did not reach Germany due to the onset of the war, and the calculations led directly to the realization of about 10 kilograms or less of U235 was needed for bombs.

February 29, 1940 - Heisenberg submits to German Army Weapons the second part of his report dealing with slow neutron chain reactions; he rejects graphite as a moderator.

January 20, 1941 - Walther Bothe and Peter Jensen in Heidelberg measure the neutron absorption cross section of graphite and mistakenly conclude that graphite can not be an effective moderator.

August, 1941 - Fritz Houtermans submits to the German Post Office a report including a critical mass formula like Perrin's but without quantitative estimates, and the suggestion that fissionable plutonium will be generated in a reactor. Houtermans' work gains little attention.

1941 was clearly the decisive year of German nuclear research, as they doubled down against graphite with the ultimate ramifications that being known and Houtermans work, which very nearly came close to solving both the critical mass errors made as well as putting them on the path to a plutonium bomb, was ignored. Given the resource/funding issues, it's questionable if both errors being corrected then would yield a bomb in time for usage in WWII; as noted by Carl, the irony of ironies would be for the Germans to finally get a hold of them in April of 1945. So, that means the easiest way would be to go further back. Basic idea for the ATL could go something like this:

May, 1939 - Paul Harteck stumbles upon Perrin's article and is able to figure out critical mass like Peierls essentially did; the information is shared with Heisenberg. The adopting of the neutron reflector also allows for safety procedures to enter into the nascent German program.

September, 1939 - Heisenberg's first report is submitted, and immediately raises the interest of the German ordnance bureau due to the bomb appearing far more likely. The need to consider a moderator leads to them making the funds available to test for such.

February, 1940 - Walther Bothe and Peter Jensen at Heidelberg are able to confirm that ultra pure graphite can be used as a moderator. With this confirmation, intensive funding and research begins.

Summer, 1940 - Fritz Houtermans produces the research needed to make the plutonium design possible.

May, 1941 - German reactor, in the same vein as Chicago pile, comes online.

June, 1944 - First German nuclear bomb.
 
>before Churchill gets kicked out
And replaced by Labour who are actually rabidly anti fascist rather than opposed to merely German imperialism.
 
Not if Churchill's in 10 Downing they won't.
Even if Churchil stays, Hitler could've contacted the japanese and proposed a joint plan to attack the USSR. The nazis didn't even gave japan a warning about the whole Operation Barbarossa, really short-sighted.

"oh but excuse me, even with the japanese and the germans attacking together the soviets would still keep fighting" Yeah...they could still fight til the end, but there's no guarantee that they will.
 
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