Before the War, the Germans were not buying so much as bartering. The RM wasn't convertabke, and with the Germans hitting Autarky really hard, they did deals, trading tooling for Oil with Mexico, for example.It's been pointed out but it is worth mentioning again, without the RN blockade, Germany can buy supplies from abroad.
what are we assuming the other Axis powers are doing? Italy is always disparaged but they could have replaced the poorly armed Romania/Hungary forces here for a massive improvement and Japan might enter also?
I think the Germans have a good shot, as they can get the Oil they need temporarily from foreign sources. Also, 35 more divisions for the drive on Moscow cant hurt.
Plus, with no Lend-Lease, the Soviets will have a severe truck shortage. Combining these factors, I say it is 50-50 they win or lose.
what are we assuming the other Axis powers are doing? Italy is always disparaged but they could have replaced the poorly armed Romania/Hungary forces here for a massive improvement and Japan might enter also?
Unlikely. In 1940, Mussolini was out to make his own "parallel war", and that had to gain ground at the expense of France and Britain, not the USSR. If the Franco-British not only offer an armistice but also, rather quickly, peace terms, that Germany obviously accepts, then the Italians have gained little or nothing. A blueprint is the meager result of the armistice with France.
Mussolini will also construe this as Hitler deciding on his own solely what's good for Germany, ignoring Italy's "rightful" claims. It's entirely possible that, in a fit of pique, he does not send one soldier to the Eastern Front, unlike in OTL.
A further possibility is that he does declare, once Hitler has his hands full in the East, his own personal war against Greece (more probably) or Yugoslavia. A consolation prize based on the assumption that the Franco-British caving in means they have generally lost appetite for any confrontation. This might go better than in OTL for several reasons, but even so, it's instability on Germany's Southern flank and closer than they'd like to Ploesti. And, on the contrary, it might go almost as badly as in OTL.
OTOH, it's possible that the Finns, seeing that they have nothing to fear from anybody else but their old Russian foe, are even more enthusiastic in this ATL.
After Mexican owned Oil Tankers were sunk by U-boats, un likely for them to restart trade.I think the Germans have a good shot, as they can get the Oil they need temporarily from foreign sources.
I’ve never really believed that. Entire factories and millions of workers had been moved beyond the reach of the Heer and the Luftwaffe behind the Urals. They also had a significant manpower advantage and they managed to outproduce the Germans in key areas. Hitler and the German High Command had severely underestimated the manufacturing power of the Soviet Union, the quality of their equipment, the number of troops that they could put in the field, the treachery of terrain and the weather and the patriotic fervor of the Russian people. They were fighting a war of annihilation. To add to their problems, the Germans were brutal with the Eastern Europeans that were under their occupation. People that might have otherwise supported the Germans to free themselves from the Soviet Union, became partisans instead.Once the full might of the Soviet Union was in play, you'd be right.
But we're looking at here is the decisive moment of the fall of 1941. At that moment, the point is not the obvious long-term staying power of the Soviets; the Germans might just achieve a first-round KO victory. And you'll have to admit that in 1941, the Germans had had their share of Western and Southern distractions.
My guess would be Venezuela for Oil, not sure for others ressources.Their position is improved once they starting looting captured countries for Gold and such, but that's temporary reprieve, and for others, like Sweden or Switzerland, who else were they to drade with?
years back, of all the Latine american countries Oil, only Mexico did any deals, and those started before FDR's 'Good Neighbor' policy, when Mexico had just nationalized all the foreign Oil concessions, and the US Majors blackballed them in sales over most of the globe. The Fascist powers were the only ones who wanted Oil, and made a deal that Cardenas couldn't refuse.My guess would be Venezuela for Oil, not sure for others ressources.
Would USA still lend lease with Britain out of war?
No. It was a minor concurrent factor at most.
The delay? Was going to happen anyway, because of the weather and, frankly, because of incomplete preparations.
The allocation of troops? Well, this allows us to consider the downside of having, say, the 2. and 5. Panzerdivisionen participating in Barbarossa from day one, not mention the other two that were in Africa. Fine, I read in posts above, more strength available, bad news for the Soviets.
Now, does anybody remember why the Germans stopped and twiddled their thumbs every now and then in 1941? Was it because of a shortage of tanks?
No, it was because of a shortage of supplies.
More tanks = more fuel needed.
Having four more Panzerdivisionen means hitting that wall earlier on.
"Had i knew how big the Soviets force were, i never had started this War [operation Barbarossa]"
Where? OTL British losses before Dynamo were perhaps fifteen thousand dead.The oil would come up through Persia instead. Considering in this scenario, the British have already lost hundreds of thousands dead to the Germans, I think their anti-Nazi sentiment would be pretty strong.
Where? OTL British losses before Dynamo were perhaps fifteen thousand dead.
Most of whom would have been captured; there would not have been "hundreds of thousands dead".I can’t imagine a world where Britain peaces out without Dynamo failing and the BEF getting killed or captured.