I'm surprise the Soviets haven't left Xinjiang with the civil war, or the KMT just march right in. I doubt the Russians station there would put up much of a fight.
Twilight of the Red Tsar
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I'm surprise the Soviets haven't left Xinjiang with the civil war, or the KMT just march right in. I doubt the Russians station there would put up much of a fight.
The KMT will be at the height of it's power: no warlords, no Communists, decimated opposition. They would be just as or even more domineering than the CCP IOTL, wih the closest parallel being Vietnam (but even more burnt to the ground) so I think chances of democratization would be slim to say the least.
Of course, China might just get lucky if the Chiangs relent and China has a Hu Yaobang-style period of liberalism and reform. There is no definite scenario, but I imagine reconstruction would take 20, 30 years to complete, with democratization (if any) be further back in the 2000s/2010s barring some Peteroiska style event that comes with an expanded intellectual class.
I think the KMT would like to reconstruct/expand it's traditional mainland Han Chinese social elite, rather than Chiang Ching-kuo's OTL opening up of the KMT to Taiwanese Hans. Maybe a Hong Kong style "democracy" where plutocrats are woven into the political system.
Given the OTL treatment of the Taiwanese aboriginals...Probably not very nicely. If Chiang wants to reunify China, he reunifies China.
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The Americans could always make some level of democracy a requirement of the new Marshall Plan. The post-war Chinese government would likely be dependent on foreign aid so they'd have to compromise.
Given how weakened China would be after the war I doubt they're in any position to reincorporate anyone who doesn't want to be part of China.
Certainly a secondary concern. Given US/Western foreign policy in the Middle East and beyond, I think something like China being a cheap source of rare earth minerals/counter to Japan's economic dominance (by the by, I certainly wonder how Japan is doing ITTL) would be of far greater concern.
They are marching into Siberia so I'd contest that.
So the Chinese just put up the facade of democracy just to satisfy a clause thrown in almost as an afterthought. But that facade could eventually become more real than Chiang and his cronies ever intended.
The Tibetans could've gotten help from the Indians. Or the British. There was a chaotic period in the wake of Communist China's collapse. They could have gotten help while Chiang and the Nationalists were solidifying control over China Proper.
The possibility is always there--I'm not disputing that. I just don't see how China's chances for democracy under the resurgent Chiangs would be any better than OTL.
I don't think that having the Chinese be somewhat more democratic than the OTL PRC by 2018 isn't much of a stretch. Having elections, even somewhat corrupt elections, is a massive improvement over having only one choice. And having actual opposition parties, even ones more weak and anemic than what's optimal, is an improvement over having a single party state.
What are your thoughts on Japan? I don't think them removing Article 9 would cause a full backslide into Fascism, though.
I wonder about something, praising Nazi-killers is common while Communist killers are hold to a higher standard. ITTL, how they would be seen? Who would be see as the biggest small-time Anti Commie hero and heroine?
Frankly, I'm hoping that even with Communism being justly vilified for the crimes of Stalin people can still see McCarthy's trials as the paranoid witch hunt they were.
I'd say there are a million ways for "Chinese Democracy" to end up. The Chiangs might well choose not to democratize and weave the KMT into China's national fabric; or they might undergo a Tiananmen style incident and become a representative, liberal democracy. They could also be anything in between these two extremes. For a KMT-led China to be more liberal and democratic than the 2018 PRC is certainly not implausible, but basing my thoughts on what's been written so far for the ROC, I don't think we have enough material to reach a definitive conclusion. Updates on China have been largely military-oriented (for obvious reasons), and we know next to nothing on civilian life.
Despite my argument against historical determinism, I still do stand by what I've said: it's going to be extraordinarily hard for the ROC to liberalize, and any Zhao Ziyang or Hu Yaobang analogue is facing an uphill struggle against the power of the Chiang clan.
Ah. If this was in response to my comment here,
think I might need to clarify. I don't mean Japan would revert to militarism, rather that the Japanese economic miracle might become even more successful than OTL. The Korean War gave Japan quite a boost in our own history, and with the pure anarchy in mainland China, I imagine Japan's military-industrial complex is the backbone of the KMT's arms production. Japan's strategic industries might well become the strongest on the planet (the PLA had 4 Million men and women under arms in the 1970s--I shudder to think how many men and material the KMT would need in their reconquest).
If Japanese heavy industrialization is pushed even further than OTL, the US might start worrying that their erstwhile allies might be buying up the world very soon. I think a counterbalance in the form of the ROC is an objective Washington would do well to pursue.
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Oh I don't mean McCarthy. I mean the people in Eastern Europe. People killing Soviets is going to be seen as heroic as killing Nazis, so I imagine that "Resist Both Sides" stories would be highly popular.
Is interesting think how this os going to affect historiography. The McCarthy trials are going to be seen as paranoic, but with some sympathy. But the old Communists that praised the URSS...they're going to be mocked a lot. At best.
Tankies even exist here? People that still believe the URSS talk about Equality. Not just Neo Nazis with a fondness of Hammers and Sickles.
Tankie Argument #1 is usually saying "The Soviets beat the Nazis! You can't critique us or comparing them with the Nazis or you're just a Nazi in disguise!".
Here? That argument is going to anger Jews, Eastern Europeans and especially Chineses.
Maybe some "The chinese deserved it and Stalin just was trying to save them from Mao" from the survivors of the Communist Left.
Is interesting think how this os going to affect historiography. The McCarthy trials are going to be seen as paranoic, but with some sympathy. But the old Communists that praised the URSS...they're going to be mocked a lot. At best.
Tankies even exist here? People that still believe the URSS talk about Equality. Not just Neo Nazis with a fondness of Hammers and Sickles.
Tankie Argument #1 is usually saying "The Soviets beat the Nazis! You can't critique us or comparing them with the Nazis or you're just a Nazi in disguise!".
Here? That argument is going to anger Jews, Eastern Europeans and especially Chineses.
Maybe some "The chinese deserved it and Stalin just was trying to save them from Mao" from the survivors of the Communist Left.
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You mention Tiananmen, so how about this.
Would it possible for the KMT themselves to drop the ball, and when they venison of Tiananmen comes around, it works and the KMT and Chiang Clan collapses in on themselves?
Me and @Joshua Ben Ari talked a few things for this so I figure I post some of it here.
1: Major amount of emigration to Canada, France, or Brazil from China and Eastern Europe. In OTL, a lot of Hongkongers moved to Canada before 1997 to avoid Chinese rule; so there definitely be a lot of Chinese immigration to Canada - particularly Vancouver, Victoria, and Toronto. Britain is closer, so you could see Hungarians, Poles, and Romanians moving to Britain to escape Communism and the collapse of the USSR.
2: Churchill's idea to invade the USSR after the war will be getting a lot of credence. Basically, Churchill saw Stalin's evilness but FDR was unable to see it and blinded by idealism. FDR is ruined by Yalta and giving too much to Stalin while Churchill would be a prophet with his Iron Curtain speech.
3: Almost all the villains will be Russians or Communists (or even a collaboration between ex-Nazis and Communists).
4: Japan will become a military power in East Asia with it the backbone of the KMT and to counter Soviets and Reds in the region.
5: TTL, Magneto take the role of damaged hero, survived the Nazi Holocaust as a child, the Soviet Holocaust as a young man, and he became a Nazi and Stalinist hunter in the late 1950s after escaping to Israel to help Nazi Holocaust survivors.
Israel becomes a haven for Middle Eastern and Russian Jewish mutants who are fleeing persecution in the Arab states and former Soviet Union, with Magneto becoming a sort of anti-hero Professor X preaching a kind of Mutant Pride-style Jewish Pride movement.
Xavier, a syndicalist (or dyed-in-the-wool liberal), believes that people are fundamentally good but that mutants need to integrate and assimilate into society. The Soviets and Nazis are aberrations in mankind, that Man has been progressing forward. Essentially, Xavier is an idealist and seen as a bit too youthful and inexperienced compared to Magneto.
6: Future Space Race between America, Japan, the UK/France, and maybe Brazil. China and Russia too down the line.
1: Major amount of emigration to Canada, France, or Brazil from China and Eastern Europe. In OTL, a lot of Hongkongers moved to Canada before 1997 to avoid Chinese rule; so there definitely be a lot of Chinese immigration to Canada - particularly Vancouver, Victoria, and Toronto. Britain is closer, so you could see Hungarians, Poles, and Romanians moving to Britain to escape Communism and the collapse of the USSR.
2: Churchill's idea to invade the USSR after the war will be getting a lot of credence. Basically, Churchill saw Stalin's evilness but FDR was unable to see it and blinded by idealism. FDR is ruined by Yalta and giving too much to Stalin while Churchill would be a prophet with his Iron Curtain speech.
3: Almost all the villains will be Russians or Communists (or even a collaboration between ex-Nazis and Communists).
4: Japan will become a military power in East Asia with it the backbone of the KMT and to counter Soviets and Reds in the region.
5: TTL, Magneto take the role of damaged hero, survived the Nazi Holocaust as a child, the Soviet Holocaust as a young man, and he became a Nazi and Stalinist hunter in the late 1950s after escaping to Israel to help Nazi Holocaust survivors.
Israel becomes a haven for Middle Eastern and Russian Jewish mutants who are fleeing persecution in the Arab states and former Soviet Union, with Magneto becoming a sort of anti-hero Professor X preaching a kind of Mutant Pride-style Jewish Pride movement.
Xavier, a syndicalist (or dyed-in-the-wool liberal), believes that people are fundamentally good but that mutants need to integrate and assimilate into society. The Soviets and Nazis are aberrations in mankind, that Man has been progressing forward. Essentially, Xavier is an idealist and seen as a bit too youthful and inexperienced compared to Magneto.
6: Future Space Race between America, Japan, the UK/France, and maybe Brazil. China and Russia too down the line.
Magneto being from the Soviet Holocaust is just going to be interesting. Especially when we got closer to modern day and he's aged way more. He likely would become a child in the Soviet Holocaust for the Late 2010 retellings ITTL.
Don't forget the general Muslim autonomists, as they have their own large region. They are all basically human shields of course, but so long as they act like obedient younger siblings I can see the KMT and others going along with it. Though I think it was mentioned for the Hui and another group that their was a Clique in control of the area. Basically meaning there are some strongmen keeping things in order, doing whatever Nanjing feels should be insisted on.
As a Ignorant in Asian Politics (and a lot of things in history, I came here to read about The Red Tzar and his descend to somehow even darker depths and the human suffering that he would cause. Mass Murder episodes are "fun" to read about, fun as "it makes you cry but also think"), how Democratic is Taiwan OTL?
With the Hui (Chinese Muslim) people being so spread out across China,
It's easy to generalize. Huis in the Northwest of China were those who formed the Ma Clique, and by far the most culturally distinct. They might desire a small degree of autonomy, but would probably be fundamentally opposed to separatism due to their rivalry with the Uyghrs. Huis and Uyghrs are two very different entities. The former is the Han Chinese's doggedly loyal younger brother, and the latter are a Turkic ethnicity with little ties to Han China. Mix in doctrinally different (Sunni) Islamic sects and a history of atrocities, and you've got yourself a rivalry that defines Western China. The Ma Clique being Nanking's trusted strongmen is a pretty accurate description.
Huis across other parts of China (and more so as you head East) can be accurately described as [insert provincial subculture here] Han Chinese, but Muslim.
Pretty democratic, I'd say. Probably the least paternalistic and most liberal of East Asia's democracies. Though it has to be noted it was one of the most totalitarian places in the area during the 40s-70s under Chiang.
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Thanks for the answer!!
Now. I wonder how many media is being affected for this. Chinese media is going to be non existent.
Japan got (predictably) the smaller amount of Chinese refugees (1000? 10000? I don't think enough to leave a cultural impact in media, thought we can get some celebrities IMO), so sadly, we wouldn't get literal Monitos Chinos (Spanish word for "Chinese drawings", a jokey term about anime) even with ITTL Chinese Diaspora.
Chinese-descendents and Asians are going to have interesting talks. I imagine a lot more of Chinese people getting involved in Social Justice. There likely going to be a divide between pre-Mao/Stalin Chinese inmigrants and the Sino-Russian Refugees.
Latin America got many asians too in OTL, with the diaspora, how many of them are going to be there?
I'm not chinese. Is just that the very idea of the Chinese Apocalypse (it was named like that!) is just...shocking. One of my friends (more like a acquaintance that I respect), descends from Chineses running from Mao. ITTL, or his family got uber luckier or they likely died in the Sino Russian war.
A world where My friend didn't exist due to Stalin' madness. Truly a weird way to see it.
Now. I wonder how many media is being affected for this. Chinese media is going to be non existent.
Japan got (predictably) the smaller amount of Chinese refugees (1000? 10000? I don't think enough to leave a cultural impact in media, thought we can get some celebrities IMO), so sadly, we wouldn't get literal Monitos Chinos (Spanish word for "Chinese drawings", a jokey term about anime) even with ITTL Chinese Diaspora.
Chinese-descendents and Asians are going to have interesting talks. I imagine a lot more of Chinese people getting involved in Social Justice. There likely going to be a divide between pre-Mao/Stalin Chinese inmigrants and the Sino-Russian Refugees.
Latin America got many asians too in OTL, with the diaspora, how many of them are going to be there?
I'm not chinese. Is just that the very idea of the Chinese Apocalypse (it was named like that!) is just...shocking. One of my friends (more like a acquaintance that I respect), descends from Chineses running from Mao. ITTL, or his family got uber luckier or they likely died in the Sino Russian war.
A world where My friend didn't exist due to Stalin' madness. Truly a weird way to see it.
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I'm talking about them having autonomy because the timelines SAYS they had it. Unless I misremembered from another timeline. The Mongols were told they would get a similar deal to the Hui State when swallowed up.
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