Chapter 4
“Continuous effort - not strength or intelligence - is the key to unlocking our potential.”
__________________________________________________
(Taken from ‘Lord Randolph Churchill’ by Timothy James, Picador 1978)
“Hearing that Parliament had been dissolved, Churchill cut short his expedition to India and rushed back to Britain[1]. He arrived to find himself in a position of massive popularity; Punch had published a series of cartoons urging his return, and it was generally agreed that the election campaign had been made duller by his absence. Churchill’s arrival was also regarded with some relief by his colleagues in the Party. Gladstone had spent the campaign crisscrossing the country in a self-conscious attempt to emulate his ‘Midlothian campaign’ of five years previously, and Stafford Northcote’s oratory was no match for that of the Prime Minister; indeed, now that Salisbury had withdrawn from public life only Balfour was capable of drawing the crowds.
Almost as soon as he had disembarked, Churchill threw himself into the campaign. His face was known throughout the country; the cartoonists made his shaggy moustache and large wing collars famous; people grinned and raised their hats when they recognised him. His speeches, repeated verbatim in the press, were read by an enormous audience, and as his reputation spread and increased, that of the unfortunate Northcote and his colleagues declined...”
(Taken from ‘Britain, from Churchill to Chamberlain’ by Peter Moorcroft, Star 1983)
“The Election of 1885 was a strange one; the absence of Randolph Churchill for much of the campaign and the supine leadership of Sir Stafford Northcote meant that at times, the struggle seemed to be more between different wings of the Liberal Party and the Irish Nationalists rather than the traditional Tory-Liberal contest of previous years. One of Gladstone’s ulterior motives for calling an election that spring was to paper over the cracks in policy that were beginning to appear in his party; not only over Ireland, where the need to renew the Coercion Bill passed in the wake of Earl Spencer’s murder was approaching, but also over local government and finance.
In this, he was not particularly successful. In late April, Joseph Chamberlain and Charles Dilke split from the Liberal leadership and began to campaign on a platform of Local Government reform in Ireland and on the mainland, combined with national councils for each constituent nation of the United Kingdom[2]. In a speech in Newcastle Chamberlain outlined his vision;
‘I cannot admit that five million Irishmen have any greater inherent right to govern themselves without regard to the rest of the United Kingdom then the five million inhabitants of London... I for my part would concede the greatest measure of local government to the Irish as I would concede to the English and the Scotch’
Chamberlain’s call for ‘Home Rule all round’ angered the Nationalists, and in early May the rupture between the Irish and the Radicals was confirmed. Speaking in Dublin, Parnell declared for ‘national independence’ and urged Irish voters in Britain to support ‘Whig or Conservative candidates over the Radical’[3]. Churchill, by now back in the country, looked on with astonishment; when Lord Hartington expressed his own dismay at the Liberal infighting, he opportunistically made a speech in Sheffield inviting him to ‘come over and join us’. When Hartington asked who ‘us’ was, Churchill cheerfully replied ‘’us’ is me!’.
For Churchill, the augur of Conservative fortunes in the campaign came on the day before the polls, when the Tory leader in the Lords, Earl Cairns, died suddenly[4]. When he was told the news, Churchill rolled his eyes. ‘How can they tell?’ he asked...”
(Taken from “The Encyclopaedia of British Politics”, ed Fred Timms, Star 1976)
1885 ELECTION: General Election held in April 1885 after W E Gladstone’s Liberal Government opportunistically dissolved itself following the rescue of General Gordon from Khartoum. After a campaign where Liberal divisions over Ireland were exposed and the Conservatives barely contested the election at all, the result was a narrow Liberal victory; however the real winners were the Irish Nationalists, who gained many seats thanks to the extension of the franchise and redistribution of seats.
The results were as follows:
Liberal: 334 (-22)
Conservative: 233 (-4)
Irish Parliamentary: 85 (+22)
Independent Liberal: 9 (+9)
Crofters’ Party: 3 (+3)
Independent Conservative: 2 (+2)
Independent: 1 (+1)[5]
(Taken from ‘The Fall of the Liberal Party’ by Steven Dyson, Peterson 1964)
“At first glance, it appeared that Gladstone had won a famous victory. The Tories had been humiliated, and the Irish advance, while impressive, had been blunted before Parnell could hold the balance of power in the Commons[6]. However, beyond the raw figures a rather more worrying picture emerged. Joseph Chamberlain’s ‘unauthorised programme’ had proven surprisingly popular with the new electorate, and electoral success had considerably strengthened his position[7]. On the Conservative benches, the failure of Northcote had only strengthened the hand of Lord Randolph Churchill and his notion of ‘Tory Democracy’.
As Chamberlain had made it plain in his campaign that he would only enter a Liberal Government if it promised free schools, graduated taxation and compulsory acquisition of land by local authorities for allotments and smallholdings, Gladstone was left with a potential dilemma. If Chamberlain was left in the cold then his supporters could be relied upon to vote with the Government for the time being, but if they abstained or even voted against Government proposals then the Liberals would have to depend on Parnell’s Irish votes. Forced to decide on which was the better prospect, Gladstone resolved to negotiate with Chamberlain as his first choice. However, as early as June 1885 Gladstone made tentative contacts, through his son Herbert, with the elusive Parnell...”
(Taken from ‘Lord Randolph Churchill’ by Timothy James, Picador 1978)
“For Churchill, although the election was a disaster for the Conservatives, it was a personal triumph. ‘The Tories’, said The Times on the 24th April, ‘have to thank Mr Churchill not only for their few victories at the polls but also for the good parts of the organisation of the party’. After the election, the first priority for Churchill was the matter of the vacant leadership of the Lords, caused by the death of the Earl Cairns just before the poll. A series of names were put forward for the role; it was rumoured that Northcote favoured ennobling his ally R A Cross for the purpose, a suggestion that Churchill reacted to with horror, exclaiming that ‘Cross is even more Goaty than the Goat!’ In fact, to his surprise and amusement, Churchill’s mischievous suggestion that Northcote should be raised to the Peerage and lead the Party from the Lords was actually seriously considered for time[8]; however the appeal of escaping Churchill’s scornful asides in the Commons was outweighed by Northcote’s realisation that abandoning the Lower House would only give his rival a further powerbase, and so the plan was abandoned...
There followed a complex series of negotiations between Churchill, who adamantly resisted the prospect of Cross, and Northcote, who disliked Churchill’s proposal of the Earl of Cranbrook[9]. Eventually the Earl of Carnarvon was settled on as a compromise, but an element of farce entered proceedings when the Earl declined the honour, wisely realising that his growing convictions towards Irish Home Rule might prove embarrassing for the Party. With their compromise dashed the Duke of Richmond seemed the obvious alternative; his installation as Leader of the Lords was marked by very little enthusiasm from anyone but himself...”
(Taken from “The Encyclopaedia of British Politics”, ed Fred Timms, Star 1976)
PANJDEH INCIDENT: War scare between Britain and Russia in early summer 1885. On March 30th 1885 the Russian commander General Komarov successfully attacked and occupied Panjdeh in Afghanistan, breaking an agreement signed less than a month before by the British Government. The incident brought Britain and Russia to the brink of war; only the expert negotiation of Lord Dufferin, the Viceroy of India, enabled a settlement in which Russia kept Panjdeh itself but relinquished the furthest territories it had taken in its advance[10]...
(Taken from ‘The Fall of the Liberal Party’ by Steven Dyson, Peterson 1964)
“Chamberlain’s stay at Hawarden Castle was not a success. Neither man was particularly inclined to make concessions in their respective programmes; Chamberlain’s desire to be appointed Chancellor was utterly unacceptable to the Prime Minister, while his offer to Chamberlain of the Presidency of the Local Government Board was taken as a calculated insult[11].
Yet even as Chamberlain and Gladstone half-heartedly groped towards a deal, the Prime Minister was looking elsewhere for a majority. Parnell’s support would initially cost more than Chamberlain’s, it was true; however, if the stark choice was between governing on Parnell’s terms or that of the Radicals, Gladstone increasingly leaned towards the former. Faced with the prospect of temporarily depending on Irish votes, the Prime Minister shrewdly noted the consequences of a form of Home Rule so drastic as to eliminate the Irish representatives from Westminster. In Great Britain alone the Liberals still had a heavy majority; accepting Parnell’s price for continued Government in the short term could make Chamberlain irrelevant in the long term once Home Rule was enacted. The alternative was continued instability, or even a Tory settlement with the Irish, neither prospects that the Prime Minister found tempting.
As Chamberlain left Hawarden without the agreement he wanted, Gladstone made a pointed remark; ‘An instinct blindly oppresses me with the likelihood that Ireland may soon shoulder everything else aside.’ Realising what the Prime Minister was hinting at, Chamberlain promised to give his full support to a Home Rule scheme, but only if it ‘was decided on the basis of four bodies resembling the States Governments in the United States’. Gladstone simply smiled and replied that ‘That is, I presume, a speculation upon my views’...”
(Taken from ‘Britain, from Churchill to Chamberlain’ by Peter Moorcroft, Star 1983)
“Gladstone genuinely seems to have believed that Northcote and the Conservatives could be persuaded to embrace a separate Parliament in Dublin, or at least allow a Liberal Government to set one up without serious opposition. W E Forster once said that Gladstone ‘could convince most people most things, and himself of anything’, and the Prime Minister’s reasoning did have a certain amount of logic. Not only had the Tories passed Catholic Emancipation, the repeal of the Corn Laws and the Second Reform Act, but they had also shown their willingness to compromise the previous year over Reform and the Redistribution of seats. Gladstone was sure that Stafford Northcote, his former Private Secretary[12], would see reason and ensure the Tories fell into line with his new course; and if he did not, then he was certain that the ever-opportunistic Randolph Churchill would alight on Home Rule as a popular policy position and force Northcote to concede. Indeed, one of the few things that Gladstone had not counted on was Conservative unity on the issue; and combined with the divisions in his own Party this would be a recipe for division and struggle...”
(Taken from ‘The Fall of the Liberal Party’ by Steven Dyson, Peterson 1964)
“On the fourth column of page six of the Times on July 15th 1885, there appeared a short, 152 word letter from Gladstone’s son Herbert, dated July 4th and postmarked from Gladstone’s country seat, Hawarden Castle. ‘Nothing could induce me to countenance separation’ wrote Herbert, presumably on his father’s behalf, ‘but if five-sixths of the Irish people wish to have a Parliament in Dublin for the management of their own local affairs, I say, in the name of justice and wisdom, let them have it!’[13] These simple words changed the face of modern British politics, and were the spark for the once of Westminster’s greatest- and most enduring- political crises. With a simple stroke of the pen, the Prime Minister’s son had made the previously remote spectre of Home Rule a real possibility. Things would never be the same again.”
__________________________________________________
[1] OTL as ITTL, Churchill spent the first months of 1885 in India; his trip was rather similar ITTL, so it does not require that much description.
[2] OTL the ‘unauthorised programme’ was developed in the summer of 1885 and comprised of Chamberlain’s platform in the election that autumn. ITTL he has been more rushed in putting it together, but it still exists, albeit in a looser sense.
[3] This is still better for the Liberals then OTL, when Parnell advised Irish voters to vote Conservative.
[4] Cairns had poor health OTL and died of pneumonia on April 15th; ITTL the strains of campaigning take him off a few days earlier.
[5] These results are rather different from OTL; most notably the Liberals have done a lot better, and the Tories a lot worse. ITTL the Liberals can now theoretically rule without needing the votes of any other party, a major change. The reasons for the poor Tory performance are a combination of the absence of Salisbury for all the campaign, Churchill for part of it, and Northcote’s poor leadership, all of which mean that 1885 is a disaster for the Tories ITTL rather than a slight defeat.
[6] The main consequence of the 1885 Election OTL were to give Parnell this balance of power.
[7] This is also a major change from OTL, as there the 1885 election damaged Chamberlain’s standing.
[8] OTL, this is exactly what Lord Salisbury did to Northcote, who became the Earl of Iddesleigh and took the title ‘First Lord of the Treasury’ while Salisbury was Prime Minister.
[9] Cranbrook was not a fan of Northcote, having been passed over as Leader of the Commons in favour of him in 1876, when Disraeli gained his peerage.
[10] All of this occurs largely as OTL.
[11] Gladstone offered Chamberlain this post OTL, and he accepted; ITTL, Chamberlain’s stock is far higher thanks to the election and so he feels a similar offer is unacceptable.
[12] Northcote had been Gladstone’s PPS when the latter was at the Board of Trade in the 1840s during the Peel premiership.
[13] Herbert Gladstone used similar wording OTL, although in that case the letter was sent in December.
