DBWI: Alexander II of Russia assassinations succeeded
- Thread starter ryhs
- Start date
Probably the first attempts at a constitution would have been abrogated for another 25 years.
Well if Alexander II dies you don’t get the Duma and Russia doesn’t industrialize in the late 19th century (because you have no duma to push for laws to modernize the country). Russia could fall under a fascist regime, but would never become socialist like some other nations...
Agree. AII's reforms towards parliamentarism probably saved monarchy. Just imaginate how badly Alexander III and Nicholas II would had managed things if them would had have absolute power. AIII just tried sabotage all what duma was doing and Nicholas II was just weak religious ruler who couldn't stand with parliamentarism. Fortunately his son Alexei II* was able learn his role in democratic and parliamentarist Russia.
*OOC: ITTL Alexei II hasn't hemophilia so it helps much.
Saving the monarchy is a bit much; Fascism did historically have a strain evidenced in Kodoha Japan of Absolute Monarchism, so the Stars could have rallied around that. To be fair, the Yamato Dynasty have an element central in Japanese culture that the Roman's just don't for Russia, but its not impossible. I mean, we know from history how the American-backed Republic of Japan went...
I do think that's also a harsh way of looking at Alexander III. While his attempts to reverse his father's reforms probably did more harm than good it is worth noting that when he intervened it was generally for the better. It was he who stuck with Witte and Stolypin against the pushing of the liberals, and without them I doubt Russia could have taken Germany.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
I don't think you can blame Alexander III for trying to slow the rate of reform somewhat though. Sure, he probably ended up being too cautious, but you have to remember his father BARELY managed to keep the conflict between the Duma and provencial nobility (with their allies in the Church and military as well as decentralization advocates from the non-Russian minorities) from exploding into Civil War. Yes, in the end it turned out alright; enriching Russia's populace and expanding education, but only after decades of slower reform to integrate the old elites into the new power system and essentially stepping out of the international arena and Great Power politics until the Danubian Crisis of 1902. It was wise of him to follow the "Tanzimat Model" of gradual change that was proving so successful to the south rather than botched, radical "Transformismo Model" that lead to the hot mess called late 19th century Italy
Without Russia industrializing when it did OTL, World War 1 could have gone very differently than it did OTL. How does this affect the rest of Europe? Specifically which countries go faciast and which go communist?
Well, without Russia to save their bacon on land, I imagine the German puppets would've invested more in their army, less in the navy. So you get less embarrassing German defeats in the early months against the French in the Elzass, and less embarrassing British defeats against the Germans in the North Sea.
But in the end, Germany and Russia together are bound to beat France and its continental allies eventually, so you still get essentially the same Germano-Russian versus British-USA blocks, plus or minus a few colonies (and who knows, the British might keep Iberia in their orbit if they don't fear actually losing at sea - they never did, but those early defeats caused several invasion scares).
British-USA? The USA sold weapons to the British and French but never joined WW1. And in WW2 they actually joined the Central Allies (lead by Germany and Russia) against the commune (which was lead by Britain and the Turks)
The United States of America was politically Anglophile in alignment up until the Long presidency, it was the British Revolution and the growing influence of the German-American and Irish-American voting bloc that persuaded America to join the Central Allies in WW2. Even after WW2 the Americans were strongly opposed to Germany and Russia's dismantlement of Britain and for a long time continued to push the claim of the British government-in-exile.
Given the Pan-German policies pursued by Wilhelm II onwards I'm not sure how long such an alliance would last until Germany attempts to turn on its ally especially after it becomes apparent that Austria-Hungary is a paper tiger.
AIII already had autocratic tendencies. He probably would have sought revenge if one of those attempts had succeeded (better question is what if they had never been made - would A3 have been less paranoid?)
Well, what does Austria-Hungary have to offer? For starters you have to butterfly Wlhelm II’s ambition for Austria and the Sudetenland. Without his ambitions being butterflies away you just have Germany wanting German lands, and Russia wanting Slavic lands leading to the same alliance OTL. But if you manage to get Austria-Hungary instead of Russia on Germany’s side you can add the Ottomans because whatever side Russia is on they are probably going to be on the opposite side (due to Russia wanting Constantinople, and the Turks wanting land in Russia) This also could mean no collapse of the Ottoman Empire with Russia not being strong enough to defeat them along with being occupied fighting against Germany.
The main thing is that Austria would have been utterly dependent on Germany, to the point where it could have been reduced to a de-facto puppet state. While initially Russia was the weaker partner in the Russo-German Alliance, that had definitely changed by the 20s.
True. Especially since Russia had to grow it’s navy to secure control over the Bosporus. Also without russia’s Navy helping the Germans you would have had no B-Day (especially with the PRC* still attacking New York bringing the US into the war)
OOC: PRC=People’s Republic of Canada
While it was used as a justification for US entry on the side of the Central Allies there's no proof that the Brooklyn Navy Yard bombers Sacco and Vanzetti were actually agents of the Canadian government. The explosives they used might have been sourced in Canada but few in the Commune wanted a war with the US while they were also struggling in Europe.