So for those who don't know, the Flight to Varennes was significant episode in the French Revolution in which King Louis XVI, Marie Antoinette, and their immediate family attempted unsuccessfully to escape from Paris in order to initiate a counter-revolution at the head of loyal troops under General François Claude Amour, Marquis de Bouillé concentrated at Montmédy near the frontier. They escaped only as far as the small town of Varennes, where they were arrested after having been recognized at their previous stop in Sainte-Menehould.
So what if the Royal family successfully reached the fortress of Montmédy? Either the Royals aren't discovered or they're able to delay long enough for the troops of General de Bouillé to rescue them, though the how doesn't really mater. Also, for the sake of argument lets say the 10,000 or so troops at Montmédy are reliable. What happens next? Do we see the beginnings of an armed counter-revolution? Does Louis XVI keep to his promises and return to the concessions and compromises contained in the declaration of the Third Estate before the storming of the Bastille? Will France fall into civil war? Or would this merely lead to an early end to the monarchy?
So what if the Royal family successfully reached the fortress of Montmédy? Either the Royals aren't discovered or they're able to delay long enough for the troops of General de Bouillé to rescue them, though the how doesn't really mater. Also, for the sake of argument lets say the 10,000 or so troops at Montmédy are reliable. What happens next? Do we see the beginnings of an armed counter-revolution? Does Louis XVI keep to his promises and return to the concessions and compromises contained in the declaration of the Third Estate before the storming of the Bastille? Will France fall into civil war? Or would this merely lead to an early end to the monarchy?