WI:A Successful Flight to Varennes?

[John Fredrick Parker]

The bigger question is how effective would it have been, and would Louis XVI been able to rally enough support to come back and regain power.

I don't expect the Bourbon Restorationists would be more successful than OTL; if anything, not having an regicide to avenge would take some of the wind out of their sails.

As to how effective the Jacobin Republicans would be, as noted above it does strike me as one of the more likely possible outcomes (moreso than the CNA, much less their successors, negotiating for Louis' return). Actually in both of the two (IMHO) more likely scenarios, the Jacobins would be getting a win, since the Duke of Orleans was close to their club. Coming to think of it -- and this may be a pretty crazy thought -- the Constitutional Monarchist inclined members could, ironically enough, be the ones to find themselves supporting a Republic, to avoid having a Jacobin King.