What If The Red Army Captures Warsaw in 1920?

August 14, 1920

The city of Warsaw falls. Red Army forces under the command of Marshal Mikhail Tukhachevsky storm into the Polish capital as defenses collapse into chaos. It is the decisive moment in the Soviet – Polish war. More than two hundred thousand Polish soldiers are killed or captured with the remainder routed. For all effects the Polish Army has been destroyed and all of Poland is now at the Red Army’s mercy. Marshal Pilsudski along with most of his staff and much of the Polish government is captured and summarily executed. The Soviet Socialist Republic of Poland is proclaimed.

A war weary and exhausted Europe is now open to communist invasion.
 
Certainly. Their logistics are also fragile and they lack heavy industry. However they have just put down the Whites and defeated the Poles. And unlike just about all the other nation states the Soviet Union sees itself as getting stronger. Lenin would have seen this as a golden opportunity to bring on the communist deluge and would have pressed forward no matter the difficulties. He wouldn't have only been relying on the Red Army's strength but on communist supporters in other states wekening them and supporting the invasions from without by revolt from within. It doesn't really matter how weak you are so long as your enemy is weaker.

The sudden fall of Poland and the very real threat of communist invasion will have very interesting effects in Weimar Germany as well as in England and France.
 
August 15, 1920

In the Wilhelmstrasse an emergency meeting was being held with just four individuals. Friedrich Ebert, first President of the Weimar republic, Gustav Stresemann the Foreign Minister, and Gustav Noske Minister of Defense were the men in control of the government. Standing there rigidly was Generaloberst Hans von Seeckt; commander of the Reichswehr.

It was telling that this meeting had not been called by President Ebert but by the general. Since before the end of the Great War Germany had been wracked by revolt. In Kiel, in Berlin, in Bavaria, in Saxony, and elsewhere there had been calls for revolution. Not far from where they were meeting the Spartacists had tried to incite a red revolution similar to the one in Russia. The deaths of Rosa Luxemburg and Karl Liebknecht had stopped it, but had also given the cause a couple of martyrs.

The harsh and humiliating terms of the Treaty of Versailles had incited immense anger and hatred throughout Germany, especially by members of the right. They blamed the current government for accepting the treaty rather than blame the previous regime that had initiated and lost the Great War.

The fact was none of the men present felt the treaty was just. They all agreed it was a diktat that the Allies had forced upon them, something to be resisted and opposed if at all possible. The fact was they had accepted the terms not because they agreed with them but simply because their military and economic position had been such that there had been no choice. Had they not agreed the French, the British, and the Americans would have conquered all of Germany within six months at most. They had signed the treaty to save Germany.

The people refused to see it that way.

Those of the extreme left felt the republic was betraying the workers by not creating soviets and handing over power to them. Those of the right loudly shouted that the war had not been lost in the field but instead that the army had been stabbed in the back. There were semi-independent Freikorps made up of armed veterans that were roaming the eastern provinces and openly hostile to democracy and to the republic. Just last March five thousand of them had occupied Berlin during the failed Kapp Putsch.

The Putsch had been put down thanks to strikes by the working class not by the Reichswehr. Von Seeckt had been in command then as well and had done nothing, refusing to either aid or put down the attempt. "Reichswehr do not fire on Reichswehr." He had said.

This was the reality Ebert and his compatriots faced. They were trying to hold together a fragile republic in a country with no democratic tradition with enemies on all sides while forced to rely on an army whose loyalties they could not be sure of.

“Gentlemen,” general von Seeckt began. “The Poles have been defeated and we stand in mortal peril. I must state most clearly that the Reichswehr is no condition to hold our frontiers, never mind repel this enemy. To defend our beloved fatherland I am here to demand recreation of a conscript army.”
 
Ebert looked stunned, as though after so many internal crises this external threat might be enough to finally shatter him. He was not a revolutionary. ‘I hate it like sin.’ He had said. Yet by a cruel twist of fate he’d found himself forced to bring the monarchy to an end and help establish the republic. He had never sought power, it had been forced on him and he had reluctantly accepted it to prevent his country from slipping into the abyss. Now, again, he was being forced to determine his country’s fate.

Ebert was given a moment to compose himself and gather his thoughts as Stresemann spoke. “Generaloberst are you aware of what you are asking? There is no possible way we could disguise such a thing. It would be a blatant violation of one of the key clauses of the Versailles Treaty. The Entente would never tolerate it.” Stresemann was well aware that certain aspects were already being violated. For example Germany was no longer permitted to have a General Staff. It still existed; it was being called the Truppenamt (Troop Office). However they could only get away with violations that could be hidden.

“Nevertheless, on behalf of the Army I must insist.” Von Seeckt said rigidly.

“And how exactly would we justify this to the Allies?” Stresemann asked.

“That is not my concern,” Von Seeckt replied. “Diplomacy is a matter for the government. My responsibility is solely the defense of the nation. I expect the government to do whatever is necessary to preserve the state.”

And the Army, Ebert thought bitterly. The words and the attitude reminded him of November 1918. Back then Ebert had had no idea just how serious the situation on the Western Front was. Though he had been Chancellor the military had managed to keep the truth hidden from him and from the rest of the Kaiser’s government. He had believed the propaganda that they were winning the war. When general Groener had called him with the Army’s demand for an armistice it had come as a shock.

The Army had been defeated.

The Army had called for an end to the fighting.

The Army had insisted it could not continue the war and that the treaty be signed.

Yet somehow they had managed to avoid all responsibility. They were once again coming to him with demands and expecting him to satisfy them and take all the risk. If this provoked an Allied invasion and brought about the end of Germany everyone would point to him. The generals would not take any of the blame. Just like in November they would walk away with clean hands.

That needs to change. Ebert thought. He had originally agreed that the Army should be allowed to maintain all of its traditions without any interference. Since then though he’d watched the generals remain silent about the situation at the end of the war. As he and the other Socialists were being branded traitors not one general had stepped forward to admit the Army had been beaten in the field. Despite the loyalty he had already shown, von Seeckt and the generals had stood by and done nothing during the Kapp Putsch. Now he was being pushed to violate the Versailles Treaty for the benefit of those same generals. He had no illusions as to who would receive the blame if things went badly.

There needs to be change. He thought once more. The idea did not make him happy. Just as with the November revolution he did not want such deep fundamental change. Yet, just as with the founding of the republic he believed now that it was necessary. The Army felt itself to be above the state and not a servant of it. If this attitude remained then the republic could not survive in the long term.

“Is the situation really so bad?” Stresemann asked as Ebert was still in thought.

“With the fall of Poland the enemy will literally be at our border.” Von Seeckt coolly began to outline the situation. “East Prussia is already cut off and will have to be abandoned. In the case of invasion we shall have to fall back to the Oder.”

The three faces looking at him were completely stunned. What the commander of the Reichswehr was calmly suggesting was that they abandon a quarter of their country! For all the great battles on the Western Front the Allies had never placed a single foot on German soil. In the east the Russian army had only managed it at the very start of the war before being permanently expelled. What von Seeckt described would be a disaster not seen since the days of Napoleon.

“The Bolsheviks can’t be that strong!” Noske said.

“My staff estimates Russian strength in Poland to stand at about seven hundred thousand.” Von Seeckt said with a lecturing tone. If he felt fear at such a number he did not show it. “What additional reserves the enemy has are unknown. We estimate they have about one hundred airplanes of various models. As we currently have no planes at all this will give them another major advantage. Given the Reichswehr is limited to one hundred thousand men without tanks, without heavy artillery, deficient in light artillery and in machine guns I cannot even guarantee you that we will be able to hold on the Oder.”

The generaloberst stopped to allow the information to penetrate. He wanted these men well and truly scared of the impending red menace. While everything he had just told them was true he had very carefully chosen to omit a few details.

The Russian industrial base was in even worse shape now than it had been when the Czar’s armies collapsed. The Russians had virtually no motorized transport and outside of their cavalry brigades were slow moving and lethargic. They were lacking in artillery and machine guns and had no tanks whatsoever. Their greatest weakness was their lack of logistics. From all reports the Russians were having trouble just keeping so many men fed, they had to swarm through whatever countryside they occupied like locust just to survive. The Russians were chronically short of ammunition; not only for their artillery but for their small arms as well. They’d been forced to rely on bayonet charges in most of their battles with the Poles. As in previous centuries the best weapon the Russians had was their nearly countless number of peasant soldiers.

The Russians had won as much because of Polish weakness as because of any inherent strength. Von Seeckt felt certain that if properly equipped and led the Reichswehr would easily crush this eastern rabble. That was not the impression he wanted to give though.

This was an opportunity to restore the Heer to its former glory. He wanted to maneuver these men into helping him build the army back into what it once was. For that he needed to play on their fears and make the danger as great as possible.

The threat was real; he was only disguising the extent of it. East Prussia really would have to be sacrificed and a retreat to the Oder was possible though he did not deem it likely. All sacrifices would be worthwhile however if the end result was a fully restored Army and nation.

“What of the Freikorps?” Noske asked. “They can help.”

“They are nothing but a militia,” von Seeckt said dismissively. “Good enough for putting down uprisings but not for an actual campaign. We will do well to integrate them into the Reichswehr.”

They were also good enough to occupy Berlin and now you want them as part of the regular army. Ebert thought. The members of the various Freikorps were extremely hostile to the current government. Men who would be eager to stage a coup if told to do so by their commander.

“Generaloberst, what will you do if this provokes an Allied invasion from the west?” Stresemann asked.

“We will form a defensive front on the Rhine and resist their advance as best we can.”

Von Seeckt added nothing more.

The implication was obvious, if the Allies actually invaded Germany would lose.

“I trust you understand that should we proclaim a conscript army we will likely provoke a French invasion while the British will reconstitute their blockade.” Stresemann pointed out.

“Gentlemen we have a hungry bear in front of us and wolves behind us.” Von Seeckt said. “If we move the wolves may attack. If we do not move however the bear will certainly devour us.”

Von Seeckt reached into his coat and produced what he felt was his trump card. He placed a plain envelope on the desk before President Ebert.

“If you refuse my request then you may have my resignation. You will alone be responsible for whatever may come.” Von Seeckt said.

Ebert’s eyes widened as he looked at the envelope. He was sure this was just a maneuver meant to put added pressure on him, but without even realizing it von Seeckt had just given the President an unimaginable gift.

Quickly picking up the envelope Ebert spoke for the first time. “I accept your resignation general, you are dismissed.”
 
Wouldn't the Germans prefer to make sort of deal with the Soviets, a return to their 1914 frontier for instance in exchange for peace?
 
@LOTLOF
Despite the restrictions imposed by Versailles the Reichswehr maintained considerable stocks of ammunition and military equipment and would be reinforced with paramilitary formations in case of war - these formations are also known as Schwarze Reichswehr. The Ebert government was well aware of that.
 
Wouldn't the Germans prefer to make sort of deal with the Soviets, a return to their 1914 frontier for instance in exchange for peace?

I wrote a TL on the Old Board called "Revolution South" in which the Soviets invade Britain after a CP victory in WWI.

My research indicated that this was, on the Soviets' end, considered a likely outcome.

Both of them were "revisionist" states after all.
 
Wouldn't the Germans prefer to make sort of deal with the Soviets, a return to their 1914 frontier for instance in exchange for peace?

The Red

Possible but two things may stand in the way.

a) What is the view of the Soviet leadership? Does it realise how fragile the Red army actually is or is it on a high after this 'great victory' and thinking of the ongoing and expanding revolution that is still it's basic principle of belief? It needs two to tango and the Soviet leadership may not be willing if it thinks matters just need another push.

b) That might be attractive to the Germany government and possibly acceptable to the western powers, but I think Von Seeckt is playing for larger game. Seeking to find an excuse to 'restore' the army and willing to take major gambles with the country to do so.

Steve
 
LOTLOF

Sounds like von Seeckt has over-played his hand. I wonder what Ebert is thinking of. He could always make an approach to the allies saying 'you're limiting us so we need troops from you' or words to that effect. If nothing else it might force them to approve a 'temporary' increase in the German army as none of the western powers want the Bolsheviks storming through Europe but there isn't any great appetite for further conflict.

The other thing is if he's got a military leader he thinks he can trust he can put him in charge and defy the army to object in this period of national crisis. Even possibly reporting what Seeckt said about abandoning E Prussia and falling back to the Oder - although if news of that gets out it could back-fire by encouraging a Soviet attack.

Possibly get the army to recruit as many Freikorps as possible and use them as cannon fodder to bare the brunt of the fighting while the army is reformed and can then push the Soviets back? If as Franks says Ebert knows the situation is not as bad as Seeckt is claiming he could see it as an opportunity to achieve quite a lot in bringing the army to heel, breaking the power of the extreme right and boosting the status of the government.

Steve
 

Faeelin

Banned
The Red

Possible but two things may stand in the way.

a) What is the view of the Soviet leadership? Does it realise how fragile the Red army actually is or is it on a high after this 'great victory' and thinking of the ongoing and expanding revolution that is still it's basic principle of belief? It needs two to tango and the Soviet leadership may not be willing if it thinks matters just need another push.

The Soviets waxed and waned on this. The closer they got to Warsaw, the less generous their proposals to the Germans were.

Of course, the French could always send troops through Danzig, or across Russia...
 
The Soviets waxed and waned on this. The closer they got to Warsaw, the less generous their proposals to the Germans were.

Of course, the French could always send troops through Danzig, or across Russia...

Faeelin

That I suspect would be the most likely action, the French seeking to send forces to revive the Poles. Especially since Poland was seen as an important counter to both Germany and the Soviets. In fact I would be surprised if France wasn't at least thinking about this once it realises that Warsaw is going to fall, regardless of the German reaction.

Steve
 
French troops through Danzig and Lithuania methinks.

An interesting butterfly is that both Weygand and de Gaulle could end up dead (or deported in some Soviet Gulag) if Warsaw falls, as they served in the French military mission that advised the Polish general headquarters.

Another possible (if not entirely plausible) consequence would be a much earlier Franco-German rapprochement. If the Soviets are at Western Europe's door, people in Berlin and Paris might come to terms.
 
One factor everyone seems to be overlooking. In the event of the Soviets continuing their advance in the war, Britain and France would almost certainly get involved.

As things stood in our own time the British threatened aid to the Poles and placed economic stanctions on the Soviets. France was sending advisors.

To say nothing of the fact that if France and Britain get openly involved in the war, Germany very well has much to gain by getting involved should the Allies allow it.
 
Conscription would be a bad idea anyway. You would get a lot of communists and other hard-leftists in who could very well defect or at least a bother as they couldn't be trusted. The best thing would be to call up the Freikorps again. They are experienced, organized and eager to fight the Soviets.

Incidentally a failed Miracle of Warsaw or atleast a less succesfull Polish counterattack has always been my starting point for the TL I've been wanting to write for at least 5 years now ;)
 
Did German dockers not strike instead of help load supplies bound for Poland, I doubt there'd be much enthusiasm for a Euro-Soviet war that involves French troops moving though Germany, I'd say a German-Soviet deal is more likely.
 
Did German dockers not strike instead of help load supplies bound for Poland, I doubt there'd be much enthusiasm for a Euro-Soviet war that involves French troops moving though Germany, I'd say a German-Soviet deal is more likely.

I thought that was the British ones who struck.
 
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