What If The Red Army Captures Warsaw in 1920?

[Faeelin]

I thought that was the British ones who struck.

Dockworkers in Danzig struck. The Poles so appreciated German efforts to aid a Communist conquest of their nation so much they built their own port, with blackjack, and hookers.

 

[Faeelin]

Did German dockers not strike instead of help load supplies bound for Poland, I doubt there'd be much enthusiasm for a Euro-Soviet war that involves French troops moving though Germany, I'd say a German-Soviet deal is more likely.

The idea of France just shrugging and saying "let's be friends" to Germany is IMO unlikely, alas. This is less than a year after a war which saw the Germans almost take Paris, and now they are getting the chance to rearm with a pat on their head?

Far more likely is the French try to send troops through Germany; railroad strikes hinder their transit, leading to tensions. Perhaps the French try to occupy the Ruhr, while things escalate....

 

[LOTLOF]

The immediate acceptance of his resignation had caught von Seeckt totally by surprise. Being an officer of the old school though he could not reverse himself and admit the resignation had been nothing more than a bluff. An officer did not go back on his word, ever. Holding firm to his dignity he saluted and marched out of the office.

The action had come as almost as great a surprise to Stresemann and Noske, thought they kept silent until von Seeckt had departed.

“What are you thinking?” Stresemann demanded. “He is the most respected man in the entire Reichswehr. How can you dismiss him at a time like this?”

“It had to be done,” Ebert said wearily. “We have to either reign in the military now or they will become the masters not us. The army has to understand that they are the servants not the masters. The army can no longer be a state within a state any more. We are going to have to purge the officer corps of its most conservative elements and make the military more democratic minded.”

“Purge?” Stresemann sounded disgusted. “You mean like the Russians have been doing to their officers?”

“No! We are civilized men not barbarians!” Ebert said. “When I say purged I mean they must be removed from the Reichswehr, nothing more. We need to promote officers and men who will be loyal to the government.”

“Didn’t you pledge not to interfere with the Heer and its traditions?” Stresemann asked.

“I did,” Ebert nodded. “And in return the generals were supposed to support us. I kept my part of the bargain. They are the ones who broke the agreement.”

“We should do whatever we need to to survive,” Noske said. Ever the pragmatist the one time butcher was not concerned with niceties. “I say we should form a committee and review the records of every officer with the rank of captain or higher. Also have all the men and officers swear a new oath to the constitution and lawful government. Any man who refuses to swear is automatically forbidden to serve in the military.”

Ebert liked that idea. Germans took the swearing of oaths very seriously. The officers especially would be very hesitant to openly break such a vow.

“Wonderful idea,” Stresemann said dryly. “You realize anyone who does not want to serve need just refuse to swear.”

“What’s the matter with that?” Noske demanded. “We’re better off with the cowards and the traitors out in the streets. We need to make sure the soldiers are with us.”

“I agree with your ideas,” President Ebert said. “Form your committee and get to work immediately. The men you remove will be put on an inactive list or allowed to retire with full benefits. That should make things a little bit easier for the military to tolerate.”

“All this still leaves the problem of what to do about the Russians.” Stresemann said. “We simply cannot proclaim a conscript army, that is much too likely to restart the war.”

“We can’t sit still either,” Noske said. “They gave us just enough soldiers to maintain order, not enough to fight the Russians. The Entente has to see that.”

“The British I think may be reasonable,” Stresemann said. “The French would have to see the Reds in Berlin or perhaps even on the Rhine before they would agree to it.”

No one bothered to mention the Americans. They were gone from Europe and in spite all of Mr. Wilson’s grand words they seemed to want no part of Europe’s problems.

“We will try a middle course then,” Ebert said. He already had some thoughts in that direction. The key was to not push things too far. He was certain the Allies did not want a new war. They had suffered even more than Germany had in the Great War. They would not be eager to go through that again. So long as they were careful there was bound to be some leeway.

He discussed his plans with Stresemann and Noske and outlined what he had in mind and what roles they would play.

That afternoon he met with several other people aiming to get their support for his plans.

First he met with Wilhelm Groener, former Deputy Chief of the General Staff and current Minister of Transport. When Ludendorff had resigned Groener had been the one to replace him and had served under Field Marshal von Hindenburg. In the chaotic days at the end of the war Ebert and Groener had come together to form a pact. Ebert would maintain the army as it was and Groener had promised the Army’s loyal support. Groener was the one general Ebert trusted above all others and who President believed might faithfully work towards preserving the republic.

When Hindenburg had stepped down Groener had appeared to be his replacement. Unfortunately he had resigned in protest against the signing of the Versailles Treaty. Thus Hans von Seeckt had been elevated to the supreme command.

When Ebert first explained the situation Groener was shocked and argued in favor of restoring von Seeckt. The President made it clear that would not be done and called on Groener’s sense of duty. The Fatherland was in danger; this was a time when all loyal soldiers needed to rally. Ebert needed him as did all of Germany.

Though hesitant, Groener finally agreed and was reinstated as generaloberst and commander of the Reichswehr.

Ebert met with the current Chancellor Constantin Fehrenbach who was a member of the catholic Centre Party. He went over the radical changes he had in mind as well as his reasoning for them. Fehrenbach was caught off guard by the sudden dire situation, but pledged his support and the support of his party. He had always been a firm believer in parliamentary government and had openly opposed the army’s maintaining a state within a state.

Ebert met with members of his own party, the SPD, as well as representatives of the other democratic parties the DDP and DVP. He understood that the Nationalists would oppose him as would the Communists. He would do what he could to maintain as much political support in Germany as possible. He also wanted to stress that the radical actions that he would be taking were absolutely necessary to assure the long term survival of the nation and the government.

He also strongly hinted that if the situation worsened he would not hesitate to take any steps necessary to preserve the republic.

August 16, 1920

President Ebert stood before an emergency session of the Reichstag.

There was a nervous energy among the members waiting to hear him. The majority had some idea of what was coming while the members of the other parties wondered what was about to happen.

From the rostrum Ebert spoke. “Due to the dangers of a foreign invasion from the east as well as the likely internal disorders such an event would produce I am invoking Article forty eight of the constitution. To safeguard the public welfare I shall issue Presidential decrees aimed at putting down all threats whether external or internal in nature.”

There were angry shouts by a number of conservative members, but these were mainly drowned out by the applause of the democratic parties who were in the majority.

“As my first Notverordnungen (emergency decree) I am suspending articles 114, 115, 117, 118, 123, 124, and 153 of the constitution. These articles shall be fully restored once the crisis has passed.”

Those were the articles that guaranteed personal liberties. What Ebert was indirectly saying was that for as long as the emergency powers were in place the citizens were liable to arrest without access to the courts.

“As my second I am ordering that all officers of the Reichswehr submit to examination to confirm their professional competency. In this hour of crisis it is vital that the men who lead our brave soldiers be of the highest ability. There is no place for favoritism or elitism in the Reichswehr!”

Again there was more applause while the minority shouted their objections.

“As my third I am also ordering all members of the judiciary and the teaching professions submit to examination within twelve months’ time. They shall also be required to submit to an examination of their professional conduct once every five years.”

That had been Noske’s idea.

“If we’re going to sweep out the army we may as well sweep everything clean while we’re at it.”

Many of the judges were monarchists and had been giving defendants convicted of treason ridiculously light sentences. Likewise many of the teachers from grade school to University were deliberately poisoning their students against the republic and painting them as November criminals.

It was time for that to stop.

Individual citizens had the right to speak out against the republic and to oppose it within the limits of the law. Teachers and judges though were state employees. So long as they served the state they did not have the right to act against its best interests.

Here the applause was much more scattered and uncertain.

Ebert pressed on. “As my fourth, all current or future members of the military shall be required to swear an oath of loyalty and obedience to the constitution and the lawful government of Germany. Any individual who is unable or unwilling to take this oath shall permanently be denied the privilege of serving in the armed forces. Any soldier who knowingly and deliberately breaks this oath shall be subject to execution following trial by court martial.”

The measure seemed to get good support.

Ebert paused just a moment before going on to the last and most important. “As for my fifth I am declaring the creation of the Landwehr. This shall be a voluntary militia which will be subject to a call up only in times of national emergency or foreign invasion. It will not be incorporated into the Reichswehr, its duration of service shall be limited to a maximum of ninety days unless extended byNotverordnungen or by vote of the Reichstag, it will be forbidden to act on foreign soil, or to be used as a garrison beyond a strict ninety day limit. The Landwehr shall be an instrument of national defense only. I call on the men of the Fatherland, and especially on our veterans to volunteer for this new force and to help defend our country from the red hordes that menace it. Thank you.”

With that President Ebert departed a divided and stunned Reichstag.

Despite heated argument and opposition from the left USPD, KPD, and from the nationalists DNVP when the vote was finally taken the Reichstag declared its support for the President by a vote of two hundred and sixty six to one hundred and nine with eighty four abstentions.

What the Allies would think of this would shortly be seen.

 

[loughery111]

What the Allies would think of this would shortly be seen.

The French will howl, whereupon the British will turn, slap them across the face, and tell them to STFU. Without British support in stopping Germany, France can do nothing. And the British will not support keeping Germany disarmed only to see the USSR become the Continental hegemon. And see Europe, to at least the Rhine, become Communist states.

 

[Faeelin]

The French will howl, whereupon the British will turn, slap them across the face, and tell them to STFU. Without British support in stopping Germany, France can do nothing. And the British will not support keeping Germany disarmed only to see the USSR become the Continental hegemon. And see Europe, to at least the Rhine, become Communist states.

Why can France do nothing? Remember the Ruhr occupation?

 

[loughery111]

Why can France do nothing? Remember the Ruhr occupation?

This is true. I suspect, though, that Germany and Britain between them will be able to play up the Red threat until France decides that this is the lesser of two evils.

 

[informationfan]

well, if poland will fall the question is what happens to the former german areas, esp. the industrialized upper slesia?

I bet the germans, or some freikorps, will liberate em and create "independent german areas, seeking Anschluss to germany"

And the allies - i bet - will be happy to have these areas not in russian hands.

After the great war, the communists really were seen as great danger - without the western ally poland nobody would say a word, not even the french. So the german eastern border would change a bit, esp. the "korridor" would be closed, so the new born communist poland has no good access to the sea. maybe the brits would even support the german army in this

 

[Faeelin]

This is true. I suspect, though, that Germany and Britain between them will be able to play up the Red threat until France decides that this is the lesser of two evils.

Why on Earth would that work? Remember, the Germans are the ones who want to ally with the Reds; the ones who sent Lenin back to Russia; and who encouraged strikes in Danzig to stop aid from going to Poland.

 

[Franks]

@Max Sinister

Ebert was president. The chancellors were heads of government.

Yes, but the Weimar Republic had a semipresidential system, so the president had considerable influence over the government.

@HJ Tulp

Conscription would be a bad idea anyway. You would get a lot of communists and other hard-leftists in who could very well defect or at least a bother as they couldn't be trusted. The best thing would be to call up the Freikorps again. They are experienced, organized and eager to fight the Soviets.

The officer corps and nco corps would be recruited from traditionally conservative or loyal parts of the population (rural areas, upper and middle class). Also anybody with known links to the extreme left would probably be mustered out.

@LTLOF
Minor nitpick: Volkssturm is the wrong term. The correct term would be either Landwehr or Landmiliz. Volkssturm or Landsturm describes a paramilitary force used as a last resort usually consisting of the old and the young. Other good terms would be Heimwehr, Heimatwehr or Heimatschutz.

 

[LOTLOF]

Franks

Thank you for the information. I have decided to use the term Landwehr.

 

[stevep]

Why on Earth would that work? Remember, the Germans are the ones who want to ally with the Reds; the ones who sent Lenin back to Russia; and who encouraged strikes in Danzig to stop aid from going to Poland.

Faeelin

What do you mean by want to ally with the Reds? Are you referring to the military links that were established in following years OTL, when both nations were to a degree pariah states. It's different now as communist Russia is a direct threat to Germany and there is no Polish buffer between them.

The army sent Lenin to Russia several years back but that was under drastically different circumstances and it's probably something a lot of the German military think was a bad idea in hindsight.

I'm not sure of the details of the actions by German dockers? They may have been left wing militants in which case they could still be a problem but I suspect there would be a lot of others who were less hostile with a Russian army on the doorstep.

Overall France won't be happy about Germany rearming to any degree. However it is also worried about the growth of communist Russia and it's intentions. Some may argue for action against the Rhur as a way of 'punishing' Germany but there will be a lot of other worried about what that would do in weakening Germany and inciting further support for the communists.

I think the best bet would be joint action, with some French forces supporting a mainly German force to drive the Russians out of Poland. This would give both sides some security. Whether this is what will happen is another question.

Steve

 

[historyfool]

While I think the basic POD of your timeline is interesting, the reactions of the German goverment seem rather unlikely to me:
I cant see the German goverment starting to "purge" the army in this situation. Rather they will try to reach an agreement with the british and french for the growth of the army (which in this case is likely) and than try to get democrats into this army. For example they can call up mainly city population (The Kaiserreich drafted before the Great war mainly the rural population because they were or appeared at least more conservative than industrial workers). Even if the allies dont see reason or as a stop gap solution I can´t see the official forming of an army reserve like your Landwehr, which will anger the French as much as an official growth of the Reichswehr. They are not only opposed to a antidemocratic army of GErmany, they are opposed to any form of German armed forces. Rather they will try to hide rearmament by an early and state funded forming of political "veteran groups" like the (democratic) Reichsbanner Schwarz-Rot-Gold or the (right-wing) Stahlhelm or by supporting the forming of paramilitary plant security for big industrial firms. This the western allies can officially ignore if they do not support the rearmament of Germany.

 

[LOTLOF]

Rather they will try to hide rearmament by an early and state funded forming of political "veteran groups" like the (democratic) Reichsbanner Schwarz-Rot-Gold or the (right-wing) Stahlhelm or by supporting the forming of paramilitary plant security for big industrial firms. This the western allies can officially ignore if they do not support the rearmament of Germany.

I would agree that would be a good solution provided they had the luxury of TIME. Slowly building up a trained reserve in the guise of a political organization would be the safest solution in regards to avoiding Allied notice.



The problem of course is that they have no time; they are going to have to fight a major war with an army that was deliberately made too weak for one. Whatever the inherent weaknesses of the enemy the Germans feel they cannot take the chance of letting the Reds invade without doing everything in their power to defend themselves.



Also keep on mind that when Ebert learned of the harshness of the Versailles Treaty his reaction was to NOT sign it. He asked the army High Command if it would be possible to resist and it was the Army that insisted the treaty be signed.



Ebert and the others are every bit as opposed to the Versailles Treaty as the conservatives are. The only difference between them is that being in power they were forced to acknowledge the reality that they had no other alternative. Given a realistic opportunity for success they will try to break or at the very least amend the treaty.



Also it is very important to remember the time frame where all of this is occurring. World War One had been over for less than two years. Even the victors are exhausted and in no position to start a major war. Most of Europe is unstable and seething with revolt. Germany has had to deal with mutinies, uprisings, revolts, and a full on military Putsch.



This is a time of revolutions and extreme measures are called for if the government is going to survive. Are they risking attack by the Allies? Yes. But given the situation and what is at stake it might well seem a worthwhile risk to take.

 

[Faeelin]

Faeelin

What do you mean by want to ally with the Reds? Are you referring to the military links that were established in following years OTL, when both nations were to a degree pariah states. It's different now as communist Russia is a direct threat to Germany and there is no Polish buffer between them.

Well those links existed in the leadup to the battle of Warsaw as well. Certainly, Trotsky was pushing for them. And note that in April of 1920, the German government assured the Soviets that they would not allow the French transfer of troops across their territory.

In a speech on August 7, 1920, he asked, "Can Europe be restored without Russian raw materials, without Russian grain? Can Europe be restored without German technology, without the German working class? It is not possible." But in order for Germany to revive, she must be permitted to live, eat, and work." Trotsky hinted at a German-Russian alliance, and alleged that Germany was being crucified. (An ironic image for an atheist Russian jew, but shhh).

Von Seeckt meanwhile pushed for German-Russian ties, and in a memorandum from July of 1920 argued that Russia should encourage the Corridor to "petition" for German annexation in return for neutrality.

I would also like to note the following:

1) French troops in southern Russia in 1919 had mutinied rather than fight the Bolsheviks.

2) Apparently the French did try to move supplies across Germany in 1920 to aid Poland, and these shipments were stopped by striking workers.

3) The Czechs were also refusing to aid Poland.

4) There was also opposition in Britain, including the threat of a General Strike, to aid to Poland.

5) Millerand proposed occupying the Ruhr due to German intransigence this early, and to move across the Rhine in the event of German actions.

 

[historyfool]

I still think the Germans would not dare to anger the western powers. They are going to need their support should a war with the USSR break out, not least because they can´t pay a war and reperations at the same time. And after the Great war everybody including the army will see it as paramount to avoid a two fronts war or a new blockade.
Furthermore I don´t see a panicked reaction as likely: Every sane man with a bit of understanding for logistics will understand fast that the red army can´t support a prolonged war in western poland and police the polish territory, which will be hostile to the occupation. The Weimar goverment mostly will see the crisis mostly as a good way to press for changing Versailles
The third thing we don´t agree is the pressure of time. First the Germans can rely on a rather large standing army as the disbanding of the Freikorps will stop for the time being. Furthermore I think you understate the grade of organization most bigger parties in Weimar had. The mobilization orders simply wont go through official channels but through party offices. And the overhelming majority of Germans actively supported the Weimar republic before the rapid inflation of the following years and with the memory of war time fresh in the mind - despite Versailles. Therefore even an inofficial mobilisation will find a large body of veteran troops volunteering. Add that for once all parties aside of the communists will work together the loss of time will be shorter than you think.

 

[loughery111]

Why on Earth would that work? Remember, the Germans are the ones who want to ally with the Reds; the ones who sent Lenin back to Russia; and who encouraged strikes in Danzig to stop aid from going to Poland.

France can act on its own, yes, and did IOTL. However, it cannot afford to act in direct opposition to Britain's strongly expressed will, and will not do so. The fact that the United States is likely going to support using Germany against Russia is just icing on the cake, frankly. Even if it persists, stupidly, in viewing Germany as the threat here, the French government isn't going to risk alienating its closest ally and largest creditor just to occupy the Ruhr. Provided Germany manages to keep the payments up, and the US will, as IOTL, figure out a way for that to happen or to settle the debt, France will do nothing against Britain and America's wishes.

And what in hell are you talking about with the rest of this? Germany doesn't want to ally with the Reds ITTL (and didn't IOTL, a few weapons projects aside), the second comment is irrelevant entirely, and while I know the strikes described in the third occurred, I've never before heard that they were encouraged by the government. Source?

 

[historyfool]

France can act on its own, yes, and did IOTL. However, it cannot afford to act in direct opposition to Britain's strongly expressed will, and will not do so. The fact that the United States is likely going to support using Germany against Russia is just icing on the cake, frankly. Even if it persists, stupidly, in viewing Germany as the threat here, the French government isn't going to risk alienating its closest ally and largest creditor just to occupy the Ruhr. Provided Germany manages to keep the payments up, and the US will, as IOTL, figure out a way for that to happen or to settle the debt, France will do nothing against Britain and America's wishes.

And what in hell are you talking about with the rest of this? Germany doesn't want to ally with the Reds ITTL (and didn't IOTL, a few weapons projects aside), the second comment is irrelevant entirely, and while I know the strikes described in the third occurred, I've never before heard that they were encouraged by the government. Source?

While the Danzig strikes were supported by Germany to put pressure on Poland and the Germans and the Soviets worked together, I mostly support your POV. They did not work together because they liked each other. Both were international Pariahs for most of the 20s and used each other because they both benefitted from it. But with Poland controlled by the USSR, the Germans are in a much weaker position and have at the same time the chance to benefit from the russian success. They have some skillful diplomats (esp. Rathenau and Stresemann) which can play with the fears of the allies, while they can at the same time bargain with the USSR ("Your industry was devasted by the civil war, we help you rebuilding if you give us some of our land in Poland back). If they don´t overplay their cards producing a preemptive strike by the French, they can revoke some of the more serious parts of the Versaille treaty

 

[Faeelin]

France can act on its own, yes, and did IOTL. However, it cannot afford to act in direct opposition to Britain's strongly expressed will, and will not do so. The fact that the United States is likely going to support using Germany against Russia is just icing on the cake, frankly. Even if it persists, stupidly, in viewing Germany as the threat here, the French government isn't going to risk alienating its closest ally and largest creditor just to occupy the Ruhr.

See, this is why I hate these threads. The French are not stupid in viewing the Germans as a threat. Some 1.3 million Frenchmen died as a result of a German desire to break France as a great power and establish hegemony over the continent.

And of course the US was opposed to the Ruhr occupation in OTL. (And by the UK). Meanwhile, Germany already fell behind on reparations (notably coal) in 1920.

And what in hell are you talking about with the rest of this? Germany doesn't want to ally with the Reds ITTL (and didn't IOTL, a few weapons projects aside),

I'm not trying to be snarky here, but what of the Molotov Ribbentrop Pact?

Yes, it was decades later. But Rappallo IMO was more than just "a few military projects."

the second comment is irrelevant entirely, and while I know the strikes described in the third occurred, I've never before heard that they were encouraged by the government. Source?

The third is not about striking workers.

Anyway, for sources, I was looking at the following articles: General Hans von Seeckt and Russia, 1920-1922, Soviet Policy Toward Germany during the Russo-Polish War, 1920, The German General Staff and Russia, 1919-1926, Anti-Bolshevism in French Foreign Policy: The Crisis in Poland in 1920, Sir Maurice Hankey and the Inter-Allied Mission to Poland, July-August 1920, and Victorious Nationalism Beleaguered: Alexandre Millerand as French Premier in 1920.

 

[historyfool]

Of course the french had good reasons to fear the Germans, after all they were the bigger hostile neighbor. But the conflict between the two was not only caused by the German politics. The base of French politics before the Great war was dominated by the desire to pay the Germans back for 1871 and return to being the dominant continetal power.
On the reperations there is only to say that the original plan was utterly lunatic, at least on the French part driven by the desire to crush Germanys economy although the central position of Germany in Europe means it is necessary for Frances economic ties to big parts of eastern Europe.
On an alliance between Germany and the USSR: Both of them worked together, but that does not mean they liked each other. They had common interests like the dislike of Polish borders and diplomacy and being international pariahs. But both were not friends. Especially the Germans would rather have allied with the British, even if not the French, but the treaty of Versailles made this impossible in German eyes. Hell, even the Nazis were prepared to accept the western border changes in favour of new lands in the east.
The imminent dangers of a common German-soviet border in western poland might have made possible the lifting of restrictions and the softening of reperations thereby leading to a more stable democracy in Germany and provide the opening for reapproachment with the west, although it would start only out of neccessity.

 

[stubear1012]

What about refugees?

I am interested in how Germany will be able to handle the refugees from both Poland and then later eastern Germany. With the Russian army living off the land, there will be no food for the civilians. I am assuming that there are columns of refugees on the roads west with what is left of the Polish army and national guard fighting a rear guard action so the refugees can keep ahead of the Soviet army.

Also a large number of refugees crossing into Germany will put pressure on the French and English to let Germany take some of the reparation payments and use that to feed and clothe the refugees from Poland. Pictures of Germans feeding Polish women and children make it hard to justify taking money out of Germany.

I will also be interested in seeing if Germany uses any of the remaining Polish army units that do a fighting retreat to the border to help defend the border.

Stubear1012