Eisen, Blut und Fernhandel -German Unification in the 1860s

katchen

Banned
And oh, yes, maybe support an independent Poland against Russia. Poland will be rebelling in 1863.While if the British do, Russia (possibly with the help of Prussia or another German state) is free to return the complement by smuggling arms to the Fenians in Ireland.
 
And oh, yes, maybe support an independent Poland against Russia. Poland will be rebelling in 1863.While if the British do, Russia (possibly with the help of Prussia or another German state) is free to return the complement by smuggling arms to the Fenians in Ireland.

There's already a timeline going about what happens if Germany tries that. Es Geloybt Aretz.
 

Beer

Banned
Hi!

Thank you for the continiuing comments! Here is the next chapter. I hope, it will clear some things up a bit more.

3. Die große Diskussion (The great discussion)

"Prussia showed her true colours now. You can see it clearly, your majesty, that they did not think one minute about Germany at large. If they had, they would have tried for a treaty for us as well. They know that we cannot sail there ourselves in the momentary situation. They want a confrontation and we have to prepare for that.
Our ambassador in Berlin sent a report that even Bavaria is beginning to waver. We have to do something. Only we can unite Germany, we cannot let the upstarts in Berlin get away with their impertinence."
Ludwig von Biegeleben, inner-german politics advisor of Emperor Franz Josef of Austria

"I met Gustav Schmoller first in 1869. When I thanked him, he asked me what for, as he could not see how he helped me. I just said: For helping Austria´s goals by proxy."
Bernhard von Rechberg, austrian foreign minister

"When the first happiness at getting a trade treaty which Bavaria could not have gotten alone had settled down, I thought about the consequences ... if the result was worth the price. I knew most other states had reservations as well.
On the personal level, I had no problems with our new friends when they visited our country. Very polite, looking rather exotic, bit of a Seichtmagen (lit. shallow stomach = cannot hold the liquor well) after two Maß, but beside that I was positively surprised."
Luitpold von Bayern, later Prince-Regent of Bavaria

"My first voyage to the german states and Europe was a neverending sequence of good and bad surprises. We were greeted very warmly in the german states, no matter how different and still similar they were... their manners were a bit barbaric and strange, but their hearts are in the right place. Bad surprises were the recognition how far Nippon lagged behind in industry. Visiting the Ruhr valley or London drove that point home. The doitsu themselves are on a catch up run to Britain in industry, but culturally they are in front of the British. At times it seemed to me that the Germans are in the end phase of their own Sengoku Era. Personally I feel pride for my home country that we could show the Germans that unity can be reached even after such a strife-rich time."
Yasunobi Takeuchi, leader of the first japanese envoy group to Europe

Palais Radziwill, Berlin, March 1861

Gustav Schmoller thought that he had not talked so much in his life before as he had in the last time. He sipped on a new cup of herbal tea, but his throat still felt a bit raw. For one and a half week the expedition leaders, but he himself the most, were "grilled" by the delegations of the various german states about the treaties with Japan.
The general result of the treaties made was not questioned, all were happy that the first negotiations in such an exotic area went so well. Maybe Austria was less happy, considering the scathing remarks, but that was a different story as they were not in the Zollverein.

The first meeting of the german states ambassadors with the Japanese delegation weeks back here in Berlin had been very positive and the East Asians were on a first class round trip through all the states which now had a treaty with Edo. As far as Gustav had heard, they were in Bavaria at the moment, soon to be travelling to Württemberg, his home country.

What the represented delegations wanted to know was what had ridden the expedition to give the Japanese a probationary Zollverein membership, hoping that the capitals would ratify it and if they had thought of the consequences.
At first, most delegations had been frosty about that, fearing some adventures far away, but the tables full of maps, charts and the boards full of chalk writing attested to the battle of the economists in the last week.
"It will not be an instant 'we are the mightiest traders now' situation. In fact we have to use the coming years to steadily upgrade industry, railways and our shipping. Japan needs and wants a lot of goods. Some they will still buy from others, but for most stuff, we can now underbid any competition. But to use this bonus, we have to be able to deliver it. And this upgrading of our capabilities alone will be a boost for all our industries."

"Ships and associated industries I can see, but how will the landlocked states profit?"

"Ships alone are pretty useless if nothing is there they can carry. So combined railways through all our states are essential to bring all needed goods to the harbours and to transport the overseas goods throughout our lands."

"This sounds very nice, but you say it yourself, that it will take some time until all will be really profitable. Why bother?"

The days were filled with these questions, some good, some bad, from the reactionaries to the ultraliberals. Still, Schmoller and minister von Delbrück, who backed the initiative of the Eulenburg expedition, could feel that each day more states saw the possible benefits. It was on the sixth day that even the notoriously skittish, independence-safeguarding, Austria-friendly Bavarians were won over. That was the game-changing moment. With Bavaria in favour, the ratification was assured, but the questioning not fully over.

"Yes, it will be costly, it will take time and for some years the imports from Japan will mostly be just basics and essentials, but as my late colleague Friedrich List was fond of saying: We need to look into the future, not only the short-term.
If our honourable governments ratify the membership of Japan in the Zollverein, we create the third most populous economic zone on this planet after only the British and French Empires. I say third largest, because Russia or China might be bigger, but neither is really industrializing, same as for Spain and his colonies. With Nippon in the Zollverein our direct 'homezone' counts 60 million people and more, in Nippon we have a jumpboard to other markets without tariffs and tolls. Look at the markets here in Europe. Be it Austria, France or Britain, all are protected by tariffs as we have to protect the Zollverein with it. Nippon has great potential, many simply have not the knowledge to see that and we are the first to have the foot really in the door. No tariffs, no tolls, few competition and the chance to influence their further development and not only the industry at that, in our direction. If we just take the chance we were given by fate."

"Let´s take that at face value for a moment, but if what you have told us is true, then it will be a time until Japan will be able to fully pay her bills they accrue. While parts can be offset against things we import and if the potential is as big as implied, our government would accept some debts from the Japanese, since someday it would be finally paid off, but I know that some honourable colleagues prefer more material payment. What about that?"

"On this Herr von Brandt has an idea, which could be used."

"Your Graces, honourable colleagues, on the way back from the Far East I developed an idea after seeing the circumstances ion Japan. In the last weeks, I refined it together with our foreign and trade ministries in light of the way our relations with the Japanese seem to develop. As a material payment for our help and goods, let me tell you about an island called Ezo or Hokkaido..."

Von Brandt´s report and idea fanned the discussion anew. The consequences of that idea, if implemented, were clear to all delegations, but for a full two days everybody did not speak out loud what all members thought. You simply cannot partition an island of that size into over thirty bits, that would help nobody. Beside that, some years downstream, the German states would make their presence know on the big stage if the potential of the new Zollverein was true. And there you had to speak with one voice...
It was finally the foreign minister of the Grand-duchy of Baden, Anton von Stabel, who spoke out what all delegations thought about. "If I may take the word, it is amusing to see us all dancing around, but I think we need to stop this egg dance. In the Southwest, we pride ourselves on the ability to speak out clearly what we want. So following that tradition: We have to begin first talks about a unification of our nations back into a united Germany. At the latest by the coming developments in Europe and elsewhere we will be forced to stand tall against our rivals and for our new friends. And God alone knows what Austria or the other Great Powers will do when faced with that prospect. So we better prepare for that."

For a moment the hall was silent, then the discussion broke loose, full steam ahead. With those still friendly to Austria and those preferring Prussia as the leader locked in a heated debate, Gustav Schmoller was glad that this was a talk he did not need to chip in much. And what he recognized early as a mostly spectator, was that the youngest developments, which he played a part in, had changed the balance. It became clear that even Bavaria was drifting away from Austria on the question of leadership in Germany, their arguments obviously political manoeuvring unlike just a few years back. Austria´s influence in Germany had eroded in the last years due to political events, their non-membership in the Zollverein and Vienna´s different focus and now the success and the promises of the Eulenburg expedition had tipped the balance into Prussia´s favour. Not that a unification was close, but now there was at least an earnest talk about it.
 

RavenMM

Banned
Beer, I have some more questions after reading more about the Zollverein and the History of the 1860s.
The yearly payments to the Zollvereins member states are based on the population, right? If so, is it really profitable for everybody when Japan joins? With 25 Million people living there, it should get the biggest slice of the cake. How did Schmoller convince the others that it will be a good thing if Japan joins? Do the numbers really add up?
And with the meeting place of the Zollvereinskonferenz cycling through all memeber countrys, will we see an update someday with the members meeting in Japan? That would be really cool :)
IIRC, the conservative factions in germany saw the Verein only as an economic tool, not anything to further german unification. They should have upwind now. I think the liberals are somehwat shocked, as the support free trade on the one hand, but they were pretty nationalistic too. So... do the other political fractions see this?

It will be exciting to see the development of the german unification. Von Rechberg neither favored the klein- nor the großdeutsche Lösung, afaik, but something else which satisfied both prussia and austria. Btw, really like the little quotes on top of your chapters :)

I really like to read more of your story!
 
Our ambassador in Berlin sent a report that even Bavaria is beginning to waver. We have to do something. Only we can unite Germany, we cannot let the upstarts in Berlin get away with their impertinence."
Ludwig von Biegeleben, inner-german politics advisor of Emperor Franz Josef of Austria

"I met Gustav Schmoller first in 1869. When I thanked him, he asked me what for, as he could not see how he helped me. I just said: For helping Austria´s goals by proxy."
Bernhard von Rechberg, austrian foreign minister

Awesome update and apparently discording couple of quotes! cannot wait to see how this plays out! :cool:
 
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Beer

Banned
Hi!

Thank you all for the continuing comments again! Please keep it up!

@RavenMM
In 1860/61, which is a bit before the next great jump in population everywhere, all big nations are well below the numbers we are used to. The US had no more than 31-32 million people, a tenth of today. France, which still was helped by a kind of breadbasket status, had 37 million people. The UK had 28 million people, both naturally without their colonies. Prussia and Japan both were roughly equally populated, with around 25 million each.
The Zollverein net incomes were based on population, that is correct, but not only for who get´s what, but for other things as well.
Now Japan joining means that the Zollverein states 1861 had nearly the population of Russia. This is a big factor, because of the drastic trade barriers with which the nations (even those nominally for free trade) sheltered their industries. So you needed quite a headcount to grow, because at that time a lot of growth came from the inner market. In addition in the mid 19th century a lot of tolls came from agricultural products and stuff, this changed only a while later.
Japan joining not only meant that Edo/Tokyo got the biggest change of cash together with Prussia, but the general influx of money into the Zollverein rose quite a lot. Esp. the medium states would profit per capita from that.

Yes, as a member, Japan will one day host the conference. And it will be a far-reaching one, because for many Zollverein states and the host nation it will open the eyes for many things, especially cultural.

As for the political parties in Germany: At that moment in time, in Southern Germany (Baden in special), the liberal forces have the upper hand. The internal problems of Prussia like the Army reform are due to a power struggle between conservatives and liberals. As said, the ATL Eulenburg expedition is tipping the scales slightly, but surely onto the side of "klleindeutsche Lösung" and the "liberals", because the general circumstances are in alignment at that time in history, not mainly because of the vision behind the proposals. I singled out this time frame for the PoD for a reason.
(As an aside, when Bismarck formed the Kaiserreich OTL, in wide areas he modelled it on liberal ideas, despite what the mainly later made anti-propaganda tries to project)
 

katchen

Banned
Beer, I have some more questions after reading more about the Zollverein and the History of the 1860s.
The yearly payments to the Zollvereins member states are based on the population, right? If so, is it really profitable for everybody when Japan joins? With 25 Million people living there, it should get the biggest slice of the cake. How did Schmoller convince the others that it will be a good thing if Japan joins? Do the numbers really add up?
And with the meeting place of the Zollvereinskonferenz cycling through all memeber countrys, will we see an update someday with the members meeting in Japan? That would be really cool :)
IIRC, the conservative factions in germany saw the Verein only as an economic tool, not anything to further german unification. They should have upwind now. I think the liberals are somehwat shocked, as the support free trade on the one hand, but they were pretty nationalistic too. So... do the other political fractions see this?

It will be exciting to see the development of the german unification. Von Rechberg neither favored the klein- nor the großdeutsche Lösung, afaik, but something else which satisfied both prussia and austria. Btw, really like the little quotes on top of your chapters :)

I really like to read more of your story!
What nobody in the Zollverein realizes yet (but the Nipponese delegation know quite well) is that Japan is quite wealthy in terms of koban of gold and can easily pay it's Zollverein dues that way. Japan, after all, sits on the volcanic Ring of Fire and still is discovering new gold mines.
 
A joint investment in Russia is an excellent way of making sure that Russia DOSEN"T become the rival of Japan and the German Zollverein. Over the course of the 19th and 20th Century, Great Britain and later the United States have put a lot of energy into manipulating events so that Russia and Germany ARE rivals and enemies and stay that way. And they both experience a great deal of angst when Germany has rapproachments with Russia and any blocs that Russia is a member of.
Germany supports Russia to roll back China's taking of Liaotung Peninsula after Sino-Japanese War of 1895 OTL. Britain allies with Japan in 1901. By 1904, Great Britain is allied with both Russia AND Japan despite their being at war with each other. And allied with Russia against Germany. And with France against Germany. And after WWII with Germany against Russia in NATO.
Both the British and the Americans show dismay at Willy Brandt's Ostopolitk and especially at Russia's deal with Germany to export natural gas to Germany. Which sets up the current conflict in which Russia builds Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines direct to Europe (Nord Stream under the Baltic direct to Germany and the US argues in favor of pipelines from the former Soviet Republics of Azerbijan, Turkomanistan --and Saudi Arabia--Nabucco. Some say that the current struggle in the Middle East is all about rival pipelines between Iran via Russia and Syria vs Saudi Arabia via Syria and Turkey. In both cases, German depandence on or investment in Russia gives the US Government fits. So what else is new?
Of course the British will try to get between Japan, Russia and the Germanies. Especially since the British just fought the Crimean War to keep Russia in line.
What I would do if I were the British at this point in time---would be to try to break up the Zollverein.

And oh, yes, maybe support an independent Poland against Russia. Poland will be rebelling in 1863.While if the British do, Russia (possibly with the help of Prussia or another German state) is free to return the complement by smuggling arms to the Fenians in Ireland.

There are a lot of things Britain and Russia can do to each other though, but with the idea of Germany-Russia-Japan as a trio, the British would only be too happy to prop up China, the Ottoman Empire and perhaps Spain. Here's why:

- Britain propping up Turkey can be quite useful in stopping Russia from reaching the Balkans and the Caucasus. That is what the Crimean War was for, in which Britain was successful in containing the Russians.

- Qing China as a British ally is also possible due to the fact that the Qing and Russia both share a very long border.

- Spain as a British ally is necessary since the Spaniards have the Philippines and Britain will do anything to prevent the Spanish East Indies from falling under German or Japanese control.

If Bismarck and the Japanese are smart enough, they'll have to consider where Russia's sphere of influence may be located. It will also help if Austria-Hungary is drawn into the German-Russian-Japanese trio, or France if they don't want to become Britain's sidekick. Russia on the other hand, can only threaten Britain in Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
 

Beer

Banned
Hi!

@Katchen, MarshallBraginsky
Very nice scenarios and possibilities, even if the "british connection" about the Phillipines is a bit big on hindsight bias. These are the 1860s, not the 1940s!
At this ATL time the British Empire did several things right, but some things like a coherent economic strategy lacked and their political arrogance was worldclass. Anything not British was automatically inferior (e.g."Made in Germany" or other labels of this kind were devised by London to bring the people to buy British, just that it became an own goal due to the quality of german products), even worse if non-white.
Until the potential of the coming united Germany and Japan in one boat becomes clear to London, which will be a time away, the British will rather pity the Germans for letting themsleves "being duped" by Almond-eyes and snigger about them for their "incompetence".

Even under good circumstances it will be at least 20-30 years until the ATL PoD boosts the new friends well beyond OTL levels. Bismarck, who will take over soon, has time to think about alliances, because the consolidation of Germany and Japan will take time and should not be done too hasty.
Only then the various scenarios get important. Germany and Japan have to look what offers the best deal, on Sea and Land.
But on the Sea, I think I have a nice surprise in the bag, not necessarily for a military alliance, but for trade.
 

Tyr Anazasi

Banned
For the time being I could see a stronger influence on naval spending. This is an interesting time for the German navy as now the fleet was built up (indeed since 1848, but it was still very slowly. Just now, except Austria, Prussia is the only state having warships and these are mostly small.) OTL Prussia was building up her forces solwly. Here it would be a bit faster. As this is de facto weakening the French, the British will support the Germans like they did before. Furthermore I could see Prussian orders at British (and French!!!) yards buying new armoured ships. I guess, baring a war happen, the Prussian fleet could have about 6-8 armoured frigates and about 4-6 monitors in 1870.


P.S.: Beer, some days ago I sent you a PM. Did you get it?
 
Hi!

@Katchen, MarshallBraginsky
Very nice scenarios and possibilities, even if the "british connection" about the Phillipines is a bit big on hindsight bias. These are the 1860s, not the 1940s!
At this ATL time the British Empire did several things right, but some things like a coherent economic strategy lacked and their political arrogance was worldclass. Anything not British was automatically inferior (e.g."Made in Germany" or other labels of this kind were devised by London to bring the people to buy British, just that it became an own goal due to the quality of german products), even worse if non-white.
Until the potential of the coming united Germany and Japan in one boat becomes clear to London, which will be a time away, the British will rather pity the Germans for letting themsleves "being duped" by Almond-eyes and snigger about them for their "incompetence".

Even under good circumstances it will be at least 20-30 years until the ATL PoD boosts the new friends well beyond OTL levels. Bismarck, who will take over soon, has time to think about alliances, because the consolidation of Germany and Japan will take time and should not be done too hasty.
Only then the various scenarios get important. Germany and Japan have to look what offers the best deal, on Sea and Land.
But on the Sea, I think I have a nice surprise in the bag, not necessarily for a military alliance, but for trade.

I'm guessing that the British would also look down at items that have "Made in USA" on them as well. Bismarck will have to be extremely clever and poker smart about choosing Germany's allies as well since Germany and Japan are very far away and Russia is the only nation that connects the two nations by land and sea. (Russia and Japan are neighbors at sea though)
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Now ATL, the coming Germany´s most important far trade partner is Japan, which can be reached more comfortable via Suez Channel, the austrian Med ports and then railway to Germany. So what would a crafty guy like Bismarck do now? ;)

So you envision Venice being the main port with major railroad built into the German core? I guess this implies you have Austria and Prussia find a way to make peace in the Greater Germanic Reich? If you don't have very, very good relations between Austria and Prussia, Hamburg will be the main port. Even IOTL, seems like Hamburg imported more into Vienna than the Adriatic ports. There are some real cost issues about building a RR over major mountains. And water is much cheaper than rail for transport.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Hi!
That depends on the max range of the steam ships. Since I am no expert on the ships of the mid/late 19th century, I have to look into it first. Or if some maritime fans can tell me, that would be great.

Even in 1914, 30% of ships and 10% of tonnage was sail. So you really should think in terms of sailing, then they will convert to Coal later. The spacing of major/minor ports should tell you about the right spacing. If you assume Hamburg is the main port, you will need to go around Africa. You have to keep either France or the UK as a friendly power. Basically you need at one base, probably two in the Atlantic. Think how Portuguese had Atlantic Islands then Angola. British had one big West African colony and Cape town. Both have one on east coast of Africa, at least one Indian port. One port in Indonesia area. One in China. This is probably pattern Germany follows. These bases may not be big, at first. May or may not get major investments earlier. I would think these areas would be tempting.

Taiwan is of interest to both Japan and China. Probably try to cut some deal with dutch. I might look at some Island near Wallace straights to stay away from Singapore. India one is harder, but UK might sell single, small port area. Or maybe Maldives. Or maybe something on Arabia. Is Aden taken at this time. The pick open areas up and down African coast. Might match OTL German colonies, might not.

If going Suez route, need shares in Suez canal. Then one near mouth of Red Sea. One around India is nice. One in Indonesia. One at Taiwan.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Hi Ridwan!

Max von Brandt was an early Far East expert. He wrote a lot of books about China, Japan, etc. ,which were one, two notches in quality above most other works of his time. And unlike many would-be colonists, he knew what a potentially successful colony for Germany (or other Europeans) should look like.
a) climate acceptable for Europeans
b) agriculture possible and space for industrial development, bonus points if resource rich
c) outside the main colonial inroads, making it easier to hold and less problems with neighbours
d) cheap to get
e) if possible, keeping good relations with the guys you took/bought it from

While this may look good on paper, and i like TL where people make mistakes, I doubt Germany will get major population flows to this Island without major subsidies. Sure some merchants may come. Sure some people may want to build factors staffed by East Asian workers, but who will really want move their to work. The factory workers or farmers. Places like Brazil, USA, and other good land will suck in the people. There is a big pull element to immigration, and this Island lacks a lot. I really see a failed colony here, that requires major subsidies that will be hated. But the butterflies in German unification and relations with Japan, Austria and Russia are fascinating.

If Germany moves earlier, faster, and harder in the colonial game, there are better places for a colony, closer by. Angolian Highlands, East African Highlands, linking up with Boer republics if you beat the gold discovery. A lot of the colonies/stations in Africa are quite trivial at this point. Not sure the UK has much of an issue with a good German settler colony some where, this early in history.
 

Beer

Banned
Hi out there!

@BlondieBC, MarshallBraginsky,Tyr
Yes, the British did look down on "Made in USA","Made in Germany", both OTL and ATL at that time in history. The Merchandise Mark Act was explicitely done to show the world that british was top and discriminate against others. This legislation was mostly successful, with a few shots in the knee, the most obvious "Made in Germany".

Germany (and in the time before unification Prussia) will do more on naval spending, because the incentive is there. And as Tyr said, at that point in time Britian will see that as usable against France.

No, I do not envision Venice or any other austrian port as the main ones for the Far East trade, but as a bonus you should use. And it is important to mention that Austria already is building a railway link to their main ports at that time. So for Bismarck his Austria policy will change a bit. ;)

Well, Max von Brandt at least did some calculations what a nice colony might look like, even if in a bookish way. His approach is refreshingly different from the typical one everywhere in that age: "If there is land, plant a flag, no matter how useless that soil is."
I do not say that it will be easy at first, but Ezo/Hokkaido can become a great success since Germany and Japan will develop it together. OTL Prussia saw the difficulties of that Island quite well and this is a reason why Bismarck only wanted to do it if a cooperation in development could be done.
I think you underestimate Hokkaido´s pull for colonisation in that Era. During that time, even small benefits could change the stream of emigrants and if Berlin is savvy enough to give enough of those, a sizeable number of immigrants to Ezo is rather cheap to get.
 
With Germany and Japan luring Russia into their side, it seems that Ezo might also benefit as a station for Russian goods to pass through before they can make it into either the rest of Asia or North America. At the same time, how in the world is Korea going to be affected by all of this?
 
Generally, I would say that this timeline moves to a very balanced point, where I can agree with most major assumptions concerning the developments of trade, colonialism and German unification.

While this may look good on paper, and i like TL where people make mistakes, I doubt Germany will get major population flows to this Island without major subsidies.

I also agree that subsidies will be necessary. The United States as the major pull factor for immigrants has so many factors in favour, not least of all the regular and short connection from Europe to New York and other ports in the New world. The travel costs would ultimately be much higher- at least unless an Alt-Transsib is ready.

One should also bear in mind that migration patterns in most cases follow personal networks. Immigrants follow other immigrants. That is the pattern how a lot of the 19th century German migration to the US worked.

BUT: the years 1861-65 can be an opportunity for a start, as the Civil War makes the preferred destination quite unattractive for a while. Thus, the Zollverein has to act quickly.

Yes, Hokkaido is a cold places, but Germans have also gone to Western Canada, Patagonia and the Dakotas in considerable numbers...

ALSO: it is a place where German migrants could do what one sort of them would like to do at home: build a "Bauernhof" not too different from home and live well from it - exactly what was hardly possible in OTL's African colonies.

I don't see millions of Germans on Hokkaido. But a substantial German colony of a few 100,000 by 1914, with a large cultural influence - why not?

Not sure the UK has much of an issue with a good German settler colony some where, this early in history.

I agree that Britain would raise no eyebrow if Prussia enters the colonial game prior to the unification, or Germany as a hodgepodge of principalities as it is - than the Wilhelminian juggernaut of decades later.

###

Concerning the position of Russia; I am not fully convinced that it would be a natural ally for Germany and Japan, although I would counsel both to uphold good relations with the Tsar's court. Ultimately, though, all "vents" for the growing Russian power will be seen with growing unease from a Japanese or German(/Austrian) perspective: China, Korea, Balkans, Near East, Scandinavia... The only exception are Persia and India, but I think that Russia lacks the possibilities to wrestle it from the British via Afghanistan [sic!].

Germany's natural long-term ally in case of an averted or less bitterly resolved Franco-Prussian war would be France, IMHO.

###

How about a Dutch integration into the Zollverein? The Netherlands lean very pro-German [and actually have been partially part of the German Federation], their trading ports at the Rhine estuary could greatly benefit from increased trade with Germany, their Asian colonies could provide raw-materials for both Japan and Germany.
 
If Austria can get in, they have quite some assets to contribute. Not only the Adriatic ports, Venice, Triest and a lot of smaller ones and the Südbahn they are already building to reach them, but there is also a large amount of Suez channel shares reserved for them (OTL they dropped the ball, which allowed the British to get a controlling interest).

Furthermore, just 2 years ago, they sent the Novara Expedition around the world, in preparation for seizing some colonies on the way to China, a scheme under the patronage of Archduke (later Emperor of Mexico) Maximilian. Among other activities, they did some surveying in the Nicobar Islands, where Austria had a prior claim. However, another nation also has claims there: Denmark. *chuckles evilly*
 

Beer

Banned
Hi!

First, I will update this week again, but if tomorrow is possible, I do not know. Work and the other TLs take their deserved time as well.

@Hörnla
Thank you for the compliment! I always try to be as plausible as possible.

I agree that Prussia/Germany needs to give a bonus to bring settlers to Hokkaido and to offset the pull of the "New World", but it will be far easier than in comparison with DSWA. And you already mentioned an important point on settlement. For the coming years, the US looses quite much attraction due to the ACW. As said in a post above, I took the timeframe for the PoD of this ATL with a reason. The potential of the 1850s/60s with a lot of deft, underused points of divergence is poetry for historians and interested hobbyists. :cool:
The Eulenburg expedition was at a time were just a few differences add up fast due to the general alignment of history at that point. not only for Germany and Japan, but for other lands as well.

Actually I see the situation on Hokkaido at the beginning of the 20th century nearly the same as you. When I talked about the big potential for Germany and Japan it was seen over the roughy 150 ATL years to now. It will be faster than OTL, but it takes it´s time as well. No Great Power ever just fell from the sky. :)

@Hörnla, Josephus
Bringing Austria and the Netherlands into the Zollverein is an interesting idea, but a long-term project.
In the case of Austria it is not only political plotting by Prussia which kept them out historically, but Vienna never moved far on the well-entrenched sheltering of the austrian economy, which naturally negates membership.
 
It could be a spur of the moment retort when the austrian dignitary complains about perfidous nippon and their cheap horse carts dominating the streets of vienna.


"Join the the Zollverein then."

"As if you'd let us."

"Just sign here, it's not like you don't know the conditions, havent changed them..."

Austrian dignitary: *I'm calling that bluff* "Gimme that" *signs* "There, done."

German dignitary: *Well, fuck*
 
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