Yom Kippur War - Suez Canal Crossing Fails
- Thread starter lucaswillen05
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20 October Sinai Desert 5.54pm Operation Sampson
Shortly after 5.30pm a flight of four F-4 Phantoms took off from Megiddo Air Force base. Two of these carried 1 Kilotonne At the same time dozens of supporting jets took off from bass in Southern Israel, the Negev and Sinai Deserts with the mission f suppressing SAM defenses hat might potentially interfere with the first nuclear attack since 1945 or to carry out secondary bombing missions, Egyptian air defense around the target area was intense
At 5.54 PM there were two nuclear detonations just to the south if the Great Bitter Lake in the area of the pontoons bridges where General Shazli was personally coordinating he move It will never be known how many Egyptians died but the numbers of dead are believed to b 5000 - 8000 including General Shazli himself. Thousands more were wounded or incapacitated by radiation sickness within a few hours
Th nuclear strikes and Shazli's death had the immediate effect of bringing the movement of Egyptian reserves over the canal and a breakdown in the high command
Shortly after 5.30pm a flight of four F-4 Phantoms took off from Megiddo Air Force base. Two of these carried 1 Kilotonne At the same time dozens of supporting jets took off from bass in Southern Israel, the Negev and Sinai Deserts with the mission f suppressing SAM defenses hat might potentially interfere with the first nuclear attack since 1945 or to carry out secondary bombing missions, Egyptian air defense around the target area was intense
At 5.54 PM there were two nuclear detonations just to the south if the Great Bitter Lake in the area of the pontoons bridges where General Shazli was personally coordinating he move It will never be known how many Egyptians died but the numbers of dead are believed to b 5000 - 8000 including General Shazli himself. Thousands more were wounded or incapacitated by radiation sickness within a few hours
Th nuclear strikes and Shazli's death had the immediate effect of bringing the movement of Egyptian reserves over the canal and a breakdown in the high command
Sinai Desert 20 October 6 pm - 21 October 3AM
Following the nuclear strikes by the IAF heavy overnight combat continued in the El Tasa and Mitla/Giddi passes areas. The Egyptians were become increasingly exhausted and casualties increased. Without reinforcements the Egyptians became increasingly fatigued and morale plummeted owing to fears over radioactive fallout. In fact her was little fallout due to the Isrealis sting of the bombs to air burst
In the meantime the Soviet manned Scud Brigades awaited orders for retaliatory nuclear strikes. Would these orders be issued and what would the consequences be if and when the orders came?
Following the nuclear strikes by the IAF heavy overnight combat continued in the El Tasa and Mitla/Giddi passes areas. The Egyptians were become increasingly exhausted and casualties increased. Without reinforcements the Egyptians became increasingly fatigued and morale plummeted owing to fears over radioactive fallout. In fact her was little fallout due to the Isrealis sting of the bombs to air burst
In the meantime the Soviet manned Scud Brigades awaited orders for retaliatory nuclear strikes. Would these orders be issued and what would the consequences be if and when the orders came?
1) It would be SAMSON, not SAMPSON. (And USS Sampson, not Samson.)
2) The Israeli nuclear force was for use only when the destruction of Israel was imminent. That was arguably true in the first days of the war, when Syrian forces were on the verge of breaking through the Golan Heights. (So it was plausible in Tom Clancy's The Sum of All Fears for an Israeli nuke to be brought out.)
But this is a very different situation. The Egyptian attack across the Canal succeeded, then the Israelis crushed the further attempted advance. They were confident enough on the Egyptian front to counterattack, days earlier. If ITTL the renewed Egyptian attack took advantage of Israeli losses in that counter-attack to reach the Mitla Pass, the Egyptians would still be 180 km from the Israeli border and another 100 km from any significant Israeli habitations. Israel has command of the air. Israel has won decisively on the Syrian front.
So the use of nuclear weapons is not necessary.
And there would be enormous risks. Israel could be expelled from the UN, lose all US support. alienate previously friendly or neutral countries, lose most or all of its foreign fund-raising. ITTL, Israel has reports of Soviet nuclear weapons in Egypt. By using its nukes, Israel opens the door to Soviet/Arab nuclear attack on Israel.
I would note the Israeli code name for using the nukes: Operation SAMSON. What was Samson noted for? Pulling down the Philistine temple, destroying them and himself.
They never got as far as the Jordan river. They might've reached it had they not stopped their advance on the 7th. But there was no way they could've destroyed Israel. That was pure propagandistic fantasy.
Of course not.
In view of the risk of WWIII I don't know if the Soviets would've gone that far. But thanks for injecting some real world sense into this thread.
Btw did you see my thread about a possible Egyptian strategy for beating the IDF crossing operation?The reason the IDF used nuclear weapons in this scenario because they had already suffered heavy losses in the failed canal crossing and because they felt that they could not hold the Egyptian offensive being mounted on October 20. They are also under heavy pressure from the Arab offensive in Syria. The IDF had already committed all the available reserves. The sector being attacked by the Egyptians was only just holding as it was and Shazli was committing three new reserve divisions which would have broken through. While the IDF do not know that Shazli's attack ITTL was a limited offensive (with a much better plan than the failed October 14 offensive - the plan is based on Dupuy's analysis in Elusive Victory) it was possible that Shazli might have exploited success ITTL had he been given the opportunity. On top of that is the two Soviet nukes the Soviets have deployed to Egypt which is why the Israelis have prepared 12 Jericho missiles for use. If the Soviets use nukes on Israel the Israelis might will retaliate against Cairo, the Aswan Dam. Damascus, Amman and the Soviet manned Scud Brigades. Brezhnev will know this would be the start of WW3
Isreal also does not have complete command of the air at this point. Sufficient to mount the nuclear attack by air though several IAF jets were shot down in the mission as will be revealed in one of the next updates
The IDF used very small weapons ITTL to badly disrupt the movement of the Egyptian reserves and to send a political message. However the Israelis only used small nukes against strictly military targets and nowhere near a city (eg Suez City) using airbursts to minimize fallout and minimize the possibility of provoking Soviet retaliation. Jericho missiles have also been readied for use in case the Soviets do use nukes against Israel
The Israeli nuclear strike has been successful but, as will become clear in due course there will be a steep price to pay for this including some or all of the options you have mentioned. I have however hinted that WW3 will be avoided but I have also hinted but will be a very close call, even more so than October 1962. Henry Kissinger will be playing a decisive role in resolving the crisis. Israel will still suffer the consequences of using nukes
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The Battle of Souda Bay 20 October 5,36 PM - 9.38PM
In the Mediterranean elements of 5th Eskadra fired upon ships from the Independence Carrier Battle-group without orders from Moscow while vessels from both sides were engaged in rescue operations related to the earlier incident. During the ensuing battle the Soviet cruiser Grozyni was sunk and the gun destroyer Plammynni was severely damaged (the ship would later be abandoned due to uncontrollable fire and flooding overnight. The Carrier USS Independence suffered some fire damage due to a Soviet missile hit and several escorts suffered minor to moderate damage. Later in the evening aircraft from the USS Independence engaged the Soviet vessels the Volga, Naporistyi, and Murmansk but with little damage on either side due to darkness.
The situation in the Mediterranean was deteriorating rapidly towards all out war
In the Mediterranean elements of 5th Eskadra fired upon ships from the Independence Carrier Battle-group without orders from Moscow while vessels from both sides were engaged in rescue operations related to the earlier incident. During the ensuing battle the Soviet cruiser Grozyni was sunk and the gun destroyer Plammynni was severely damaged (the ship would later be abandoned due to uncontrollable fire and flooding overnight. The Carrier USS Independence suffered some fire damage due to a Soviet missile hit and several escorts suffered minor to moderate damage. Later in the evening aircraft from the USS Independence engaged the Soviet vessels the Volga, Naporistyi, and Murmansk but with little damage on either side due to darkness.
The situation in the Mediterranean was deteriorating rapidly towards all out war
20 October Late evening Moscow and Washington DC
In the Kremlin Leonid Brezhnev issued orders for all Soviet military forces to war alert \and fr Warsaw Pact forces to deploy to war positions. Two Soviet airborne divisions were ordered to deploy to Egypt and a third to deploy to Syria. The Hotline was used to warn President Nixon to order US forces to cease military action or fact war. Brezhnev indicated that Soviet forces would not us nuclear capons firt against either the US or Israel on condition that no further nuclear strikes were launched. If however either country used more nuclear weapons it was hinted that the Soviet Union might launch a full retaliatory attack against both countries
Fortuitously. Henry Kissinger had been in Moscow for talks about the Arab Israeli war and was in his hotel room when news of the escalating situation A hasty meeting with Brezhnev was arranged in a last ditch effort to prevent a nuclear World War 3 which now seemed almost inevitable
Shorty after midnight Kissinger and Brezhnev met in the Kremlin. This was a meting that would determine the ntire future of the World
In the Kremlin Leonid Brezhnev issued orders for all Soviet military forces to war alert \and fr Warsaw Pact forces to deploy to war positions. Two Soviet airborne divisions were ordered to deploy to Egypt and a third to deploy to Syria. The Hotline was used to warn President Nixon to order US forces to cease military action or fact war. Brezhnev indicated that Soviet forces would not us nuclear capons firt against either the US or Israel on condition that no further nuclear strikes were launched. If however either country used more nuclear weapons it was hinted that the Soviet Union might launch a full retaliatory attack against both countries
Fortuitously. Henry Kissinger had been in Moscow for talks about the Arab Israeli war and was in his hotel room when news of the escalating situation A hasty meeting with Brezhnev was arranged in a last ditch effort to prevent a nuclear World War 3 which now seemed almost inevitable
Shorty after midnight Kissinger and Brezhnev met in the Kremlin. This was a meting that would determine the ntire future of the World
They never got as far as the Jordan river. They might've reached it had they not stopped their advance on the 7th. But there was no way they could've destroyed Israel. That was pure propagandistic fantasy.
Of course not.
In view of the risk of WWIII I don't know if the Soviets would've gone that far. But thanks for injecting some real world sense into this thread.
I always planned that the scenario would develop along the lines it is now going. Note that ITTL the escalation has occurred for two reasons. First the accidental and now escalating naval clash in the Eastern Mediterranean Second the use of nuclear weapons by the Israelis to stop the three Egyptian Divisions that had been crossing the Suez Canal. The IDF is likely now going to stop the Egyptian attack dead in its' tracks and probably some sort of counter attack on the morning of the 21st.
In Syria the Arab attack will likely also be repulsed and I will be turning to this fairly soon.
Militarily, as long as the Kissinger - Brezhnev meeting prevents WW3 the Yom Kippur War will be ending in a military stalemate. However ITTL the situation, politically and militarily will be far less favourable to Israel than OTL. Despite the failure of Shazli]s offensive Sadat still looks much more like a winner ITTL and he will get lot of political sympathy due to Israel's nuclear attack. There will be a lot of political fallout for Israel's use of nuclear weapons quite possibly including Israel being expelled from the UN and withdrawal of US aid at least temporarily until Israel makes some big concessions, In Israel itself there will be much more criticism and soul searching. The findings of the Agranat Commission are likely to be far more critical ITTL. Sharon will be held responsible for the Suez Canal Crossing and Meir/Dayan's heads may very well roll over Israel's resort to nuclear weapons
The Yom kippur War itself still has at least another day or two to run assuming WW3 is avoided... Israel will end up with the historical penetration into Syria but Sadat has a viable bridgehead over the Suez Canal and ITTL there is going to be no West Bank Bridgehead. Sharon will get the blame for the failed canal crossing and thus "losing" the war - being dead he is the perfect scapegoat for the Agranat Commission Meir and Dayan will also pobably not survive politically
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Sure. I suspect the Israelis would've just set off an A-bomb in empty desert near the front as a warning before actually nuking Egyptians. But even in this scenario, if Cairo retains its bridgehead and is still mobilized, Israel will have to make major concessions just to get a ceasefire and disengagement agreement.
Btw a few days ago I posted a new thread on how Egypt might've defeated a crossing attempt, albeit west of the canal. Don't you have any comment on it?
That is not the reason the Israelis used nuclear weapons. Bear in mind that the IDF suffered such heavy losses in the failed canal crossing that they had to combine two shattered divisions into one. It was on this division that the Egyptian offensive fell. This time Shazl concentrated his assault on that narrow sector as Dupuy argues should have been done on 14 October. The IDF was, at the same time under very heavy pressure in Syria. While a demonstration shot might have been considered another three Egyptian divisions were being moved up towards th El Tasa, Mitla//Giddi passes sector, Furthermore the Soviets had deployed two nukes to Scud Brigades manned by Soviet advisers in Egypt The Israelis could not have known that Shazi's offensive was limited and were likely motivated o use two small nukes on the Egyptian reserves moving across the canal to prevent their intervention during a critical moment of the battle and perhaps as a warning to Brezhnev and Sadat.
As suggested the Israeli decision is likely to backfire on them at last politically. Possibly also militarily if the Soviets go nuclear against Israel which may happen n 21 October if Kissinger cannot talk Brezhnev out of it Given the clashes between 6th Fleet and 5th Eskadra off Crete WW3 is looking like a real possibility at his moment. It would take very little now for full scale hostilities on a global scale between NATO and the Warsaw Pact to become a reality - this would swiftly escalate into a strategic nuclear exchange. Which only the Kissinger - Brezhnev meeting could now prevent
Nevertheless, if WW3 is avoided, yes, as you say, Israel will have to make significant concessions. The Superpowers, if thy avoid WW3 will have to force a ceasefire on both sides. And, with both the Arabs and Israelis suffering heavy losses and with dwindling supplies (th US and Soviets would probably cut off aid) both sides will be forced to agree a ceasefire
Regarding the thread you mention was it the Wadi Mabouk thread I am supposed to be looking at? Did you game this out as a table top war game? I gamed out the Sinai portion of the battle in my timeline using the GMT board game Crisis Sinai 1973. The Syrian front offensive is loosely based on the pannd Arab Offensive for October 21 - an attack which never took place IOTL
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The thread isn't in my blog but here in AH:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...epares-for-idf-crossing.426947/#post-15709867
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...epares-for-idf-crossing.426947/#post-15709867
Mediterranean 10pm 20 October 1973 - 6AM 21 October
Overnight the military situation in the Mediterranean continued to deteriorate to all out war Across the area Soviet and 6th Fleet forces closed with each other and several engagements were fought throughout the night with losses on both sides.
In Europe NATO and Soviet forces were placed on full War Alert with forces starting to move to war positions. IS air forces in Greece and Italy were ordered to prepare for operations in the Mediterranean, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Bulgaria. Soviet air forces also were ordered to be ready to initiate war operations against NATO in Europe and the Mediterranean. Shortly after midnight Turkey declared that i would honour its' NATO commitment.
At airbases in Southern Russia and the Crimea Soviet Paratroops filed onto their transport aircraft ready for flight to reinforce Syria and Egypt under strong fighter escort, If Turkish or NATO fighters attempt to intercept them this would certainly be the starting gun for the Third World War
World War 3 appeared imminent, if not inevitable by the early hours of the morning of 21 October. It was highly probable that the conflict would escalate to a full strategic nuclear exchange within hours or a few days at most,
All, and perhaps even the survival of the human race itself now depended on the last ditch talks between Kissinger and Brezhnev
Overnight the military situation in the Mediterranean continued to deteriorate to all out war Across the area Soviet and 6th Fleet forces closed with each other and several engagements were fought throughout the night with losses on both sides.
In Europe NATO and Soviet forces were placed on full War Alert with forces starting to move to war positions. IS air forces in Greece and Italy were ordered to prepare for operations in the Mediterranean, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Bulgaria. Soviet air forces also were ordered to be ready to initiate war operations against NATO in Europe and the Mediterranean. Shortly after midnight Turkey declared that i would honour its' NATO commitment.
At airbases in Southern Russia and the Crimea Soviet Paratroops filed onto their transport aircraft ready for flight to reinforce Syria and Egypt under strong fighter escort, If Turkish or NATO fighters attempt to intercept them this would certainly be the starting gun for the Third World War
World War 3 appeared imminent, if not inevitable by the early hours of the morning of 21 October. It was highly probable that the conflict would escalate to a full strategic nuclear exchange within hours or a few days at most,
All, and perhaps even the survival of the human race itself now depended on the last ditch talks between Kissinger and Brezhnev
Washington DC The White House 20 October
President Nixon was dangerously drunk. Again. The stress of the Watergate Scandal was unbearable, Earlier in the day the President had sacked Special Prosecutor Archibald Ellis, a move that had resulted in the resignations of Attorney General Elliot Richardso and Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelshause. The President "steadied" his nerves with a bottle of whisky
Then the first reports began to come in of the two nuclear detonations in Egypt, the outbreak of naval combat in the Mediterranean and the mobilization of NATO and Warsaw Pact forces. More whisky followed.
It was anybody's guess how Nixon would respond to further escalation of the crisis or indeed if he would respond at all. Normally, if the President were declared incapable the Vice President would take over but following the resignation of Spiro Agnew on October 10 over the Watergate Affair the position was officially vacant. If Nixon were declared incompetent the decision to take the United State to war would have to be taken by the House Minority Leader Gerald Ford. With massive anti war demonstrations against the war in Vietnam a war against the Soviet Union would be deeply unpopular to say the last and the US army, in the immediate aftermath of Vietnam was in no fit state to fight. NATO, facing a Warsaw Pact juggernaut in Europe would most likely be forced to escalate quickly to the use of nuclear weapons
President Nixon was dangerously drunk. Again. The stress of the Watergate Scandal was unbearable, Earlier in the day the President had sacked Special Prosecutor Archibald Ellis, a move that had resulted in the resignations of Attorney General Elliot Richardso and Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelshause. The President "steadied" his nerves with a bottle of whisky
Then the first reports began to come in of the two nuclear detonations in Egypt, the outbreak of naval combat in the Mediterranean and the mobilization of NATO and Warsaw Pact forces. More whisky followed.
It was anybody's guess how Nixon would respond to further escalation of the crisis or indeed if he would respond at all. Normally, if the President were declared incapable the Vice President would take over but following the resignation of Spiro Agnew on October 10 over the Watergate Affair the position was officially vacant. If Nixon were declared incompetent the decision to take the United State to war would have to be taken by the House Minority Leader Gerald Ford. With massive anti war demonstrations against the war in Vietnam a war against the Soviet Union would be deeply unpopular to say the last and the US army, in the immediate aftermath of Vietnam was in no fit state to fight. NATO, facing a Warsaw Pact juggernaut in Europe would most likely be forced to escalate quickly to the use of nuclear weapons