Wrapped in Flames: The Great American War and Beyond

[EnglishCanuck]

Which again brings me to my point: the worst thing they could do is win the war. Their ideology blinds them to obvious facts that will do them harm later on....which, given human nature, means doubling down on the things that make other nations see them as barbarous oafs who need humbling.

The worst thing for the Confederacy is indeed winning the war. The clock on their independence gets ticking from that point on. Or, I suppose I should say, the clock on their nation existing as they know it is ticking from then on.

I have my doubts that after a period of prolonged separation the United States would want them back wholesale.

 

[Ironshark]

also just realized

America has proxies or potential proxies on all of its borders

Republicans in the southeast irish to the northeast and the USCT to the south

cloak and dagger time!

especially with the underground railroad which most time lines pretend disappears

 

[EnglishCanuck]

In 1870 iTTL you could still argue that the United States even with a quarter of its land and a third of its population ripped away, defeated in a continent spanning war had still had a better 19th century than Spain. The question is how the CSA can interact with the groups fighting for Cuban Independence, can *any* of them be convinced that being part of the CSA is good thing, or would it be straight conquest with those groups that were massively opposed to each other over Cuba independence from Spain working together. (But the pressures that lead to the Glorious Revolution are still there for Spain.)

Cuba is an interesting case when it comes to the slave and plantation economy. Without question the sugar and tobacco industry on the island was extremely lucrative and productive, but it did not necessarily need slavery to function. This was something the Spanish authorities realized, but you also had a healthy core of rich slave owners who wholly rejected that idea (blink and miss reference to this with 1865 Havana mayor Julián de Zulueta in Chapter 111) but there was a West/East divide on slavery on the islands. The East was where most of the successful slave rebellions happened (and where most of the plantation owners did free their slaves during the 1868-78 Ten Years War) while in the West - where the rebellion did not spread - the plantation owners didn't abolish slavery until compelled to by the Spanish government and fought to keep the institution.

So there is a creole elite who wholeheartedly support slavery and coincidentally can be convinced to throw off Spanish rule if it doesn't suit their interests. The Western part of the island might, in the right circumstances, wholeheartedly welcome joining a slaver republic, but the Eastern part would most likely not do so. There were real debates in the Cuban independence movement about either full independence as a republic or joining the United States. In Wrapped in Flames you might see the slavocrats of Cuba arguing for joining the Confederacy.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

also just realized

America has proxies or potential proxies on all of its borders

Republicans in the southeast irish to the northeast and the USCT to the south

cloak and dagger time!

On that you can count! There's people in every cardinal direction who want to get back a bit of their own at Britain and the Confederacy, and the US isn't going to be completely willing to stop them. If local officials turn a blind eye, well who really minds?

(McClellan in fact, does mind).

especially with the underground railroad which most time lines pretend disappears

The most overt phase, with the Great Disturbance, is going to peter out by early 1867, however, the clandestine escape lines are going strong. With in many cases slaves just having to make it over the Ohio (or past the Maryland border and into Pennsylvania) then its a much shorter escape route.

One of the reasons the Confederacy wanted some kind of clause in the peace treaty that would essentially enshrine the Fugitive Slave Act into an agreement between nations is they knew this would happen. Of course the United States told them in oh so diplomatic language to simply go **** themselves!

 

[PaulJones202718]

The worst thing for the Confederacy is indeed winning the war. The clock on their independence gets ticking from that point on. Or, I suppose I should say, the clock on their nation existing as they know it is ticking from then on.

I have my doubts that after a period of prolonged separation the United States would want them back wholesale.

I would imagine that the Union, France and the British would spend the twentieth century pitting a collection of fiefdoms against one another. The Great Game would be in what Mencken called The Hookworm Belt.

 

[Ironshark]

what does the US think of the mexican empire?

is it on the enemy list?

 

[basileus]

Cuba is an interesting case when it comes to the slave and plantation economy. Without question the sugar and tobacco industry on the island was extremely lucrative and productive, but it did not necessarily need slavery to function. This was something the Spanish authorities realized, but you also had a healthy core of rich slave owners who wholly rejected that idea (blink and miss reference to this with 1865 Havana mayor Julián de Zulueta in Chapter 111) but there was a West/East divide on slavery on the islands. The East was where most of the successful slave rebellions happened (and where most of the plantation owners did free their slaves during the 1868-78 Ten Years War) while in the West - where the rebellion did not spread - the plantation owners didn't abolish slavery until compelled to by the Spanish government and fought to keep the institution.

So there is a creole elite who wholeheartedly support slavery and coincidentally can be convinced to throw off Spanish rule if it doesn't suit their interests. The Western part of the island might, in the right circumstances, wholeheartedly welcome joining a slaver republic, but the Eastern part would most likely not do so. There were real debates in the Cuban independence movement about either full independence as a republic or joining the United States. In Wrapped in Flames you might see the slavocrats of Cuba arguing for joining the Confederacy.

Cuban civil war incoming!

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I would imagine that the Union, France and the British would spend the twentieth century pitting a collection of fiefdoms against one another. The Great Game would be in what Mencken called The Hookworm Belt.

Probably not. I think the concept that the CSA would fall apart in peace time is dramatically overrated. Not one state retroactively rejoined the Union voluntarily during the war and they had to be pounded flat back into the Union. It makes me think that they'd choose staying together with white supremacy rather than splinter and have to give it up for concessions.

Essentially one nasty white supremacist republic that will leverage its main cash crops for money as long as they can.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

what does the US think of the mexican empire?

is it on the enemy list?

It's ambivalent, or at least the McClellan administration is. Many don't care, but there's men committed to the Monroe Doctrine who view Mexico as a enemy now.

 

[Icedaemon]

Personally, I like the idea of Emperor Maximilian actually succeeding in making (or at least putting) Mexico into a (path towards being) a functional and successful constitutional monarchy, a wealthier, more respected and safer nation than at least the Confederacy, if not the US. If only because I do not see that happen in many timelines.

Would his pro-native policies indicate that his title is referred to as the Tlatoani by some people?

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Personally, I like the idea of Emperor Maximilian actually succeeding in making (or at least putting) Mexico into a (path towards being) a functional and successful constitutional monarchy, a wealthier, more respected and safer nation than at least the Confederacy, if not the US. If only because I do not see that happen in many timelines.

Would his pro-native policies indicate that his title is referred to as the Tlatoani by some people?

Tragically, being safer than the Confederacy is a low bar. However, he would indeed be referred to as Tlatoani by some people! He made it so that many proclamations were written in Nahuatl OTL in order to try and keep the Indigenous peoples in the know for what was happening, in stark contrast to previous governments. Maximilian did have a soft spot for the Indigenous peoples of Mexico, which in turn gives me a bit of a soft spot for him.

 

[username5243]

It's ambivalent, or at least the McClellan administration is. Many don't care, but there's men committed to the Monroe Doctrine who view Mexico as a enemy now.

I would agree this seems likely, and of course that might depend on how relations across the Americas develop further - I do not think that in any future US/CS round two a Mexican entry on he tside of the CS would be inevitable or even necessarily likely. Not to compare TTL with "Cinco de Mayo" but that one took a very specific set of circumstances to get Mexico and the CSA aligned, and it was pretty much reader and in-universe consensus that if the anti-US bloc had won the local WW1 analog the two countries would have immediately fallen out over the spoills of war.

And with us having seen most of North America, I wonder what else we will be seeing in 1866. The main thing I am curious to see for the rest of the world is if the Austro-Prussian war still happened in a similar way to OTL.

 

[Teiresias]

The most overt phase, with the Great Disturbance, is going to peter out by early 1867, however, the clandestine escape lines are going strong. With in many cases slaves just having to make it over the Ohio (or past the Maryland border and into Pennsylvania) then its a much shorter escape route.

There were also a few slaves which historically escaped into Mexico, which I imagine Maximilian will be happy to continue.

One of the reasons the Confederacy wanted some kind of clause in the peace treaty that would essentially enshrine the Fugitive Slave Act into an agreement between nations is they knew this would happen. Of course the United States told them in oh so diplomatic language to simply go **** themselves!

Apparently there was an attempt OTL by the US to get Mexico to agree to return fugitive slaves, which fortunately Mexico declined.

 

[Nenshou Yuuki]

It's ambivalent, or at least the McClellan administration is. Many don't care, but there's men committed to the Monroe Doctrine who view Mexico as a enemy now.

I imagine relations will very much depend on who succeeds McClellan. You could see someone who's more of a warhawk and makes threatening moves to their neighbours, forcing Mexico to seek closer ties to France and potentially the CSA to secure their safety. Or you could see a president far more concerned with fixing the nation and seeking closer ties to Mexico to isolate the CSA.

 

[Shnurre]

Thank you for all this! I've been perusing it for a few days now as its given me quite a lot to think about. I will be extremely curious on more of your thoughts after I post more of the 1866 world in review section, mostly because the route that will be taken is, in essence, the same, but will have two Pacific terminus for Russia that they consider!

Thank you and sorry if I went a bit overboard with my suggestions. If it is not off topic here are a couple of further thoughts (if it is offtopic, please just say so and I will stop):

1. The privately owned Ural Railway mentioned in my previous post (first going from Perm to Yekaterinburg built in 1875-1878 and then from there to Tyumen built 5 years later) is extremely important as it connects Kama-Volga basin in European Russia and Ob-Irtysh basin encompassing basically whole Western Siberia.
If ITTL it is build a few years earlier it could potentially lead to massive consequences in regards to China. IOTL in 1862-1878 there was massive Dungan Revolt and Qing government among other things completely lost control over Xinjiang.
Most Xinjiang was ruled by Yakub Beg (and his state Yettishar was even recognized by several states including Ottoman Empire).
Russia in 1871 invaded Xinjiang and occupied a substantial part of it (Ili Valley around Kulja aka Yining). While in theory it was done in Qing name, Russia was extremely reluctant to return territory to China even after the governmental army defeated rebels in 1875-1878. This lead to so called Kulja Crisis and eventually Russia backed down (although retaining around 20% of occupied territory as well as getting monetary compensation and trade concession from China).

If ITTL the railroad is completed by 1878 or better yet by 1875, it could potentially make Russian position way more hawkish, perhaps even leading to a border war with China.
IOTL Russia could project very little power into Xinjiang as it lies far from Russia territory. But having a railway connecting Volga and Ob-Irtysh basin could potentially improve Russian logistics quite a bit as it is possible to sail up Irtysh River all the way to Chinese border in Northern Xinjiang (Russia by 1870s had a substantial steamer fleet in Ob-Irtysh basin and of course in Volga basin, but moving men and cargos from one to the other was extremely costly before the railroad was completed).
Though it is still a few hundred kilometers from territory occupied IOTL it still makes Russian logistics and thus military position in the region. Moreover, Russia could potentially increase its zone of control in Northern Xinjiang to include the Chinese portion of upper Irtysh basin and the territory between it and Ili Valley basically encompassing north-western half of Dzungaria (if the railroad is built in early 1870s Russia can possibly even conquer Yakub Beg’s state before China, but this seems a bit too early and too smooth for Russia).

This greatly strengthens Russian position in the region thus making potential conflict with Qing a lot less dangerous. In the Far East Russia had a relatively modern and large Siberian Military Squadron based in Vladivostok and an ability to bring there reinforcements from overseas (as well as population in the border regions comparable to Chinese population in Northern Manchuria and thus an ability to beat local Chinese forces with the help of far superior military technology and organization; China bringing a massive army from China Proper is logistical nightmare).

All this together probably makes Russia a lot more adventurous in regards to China. If China can swallow the bitter pill and recognize the Russian rule over North-Western Dzungaria or if this leads to a war between Russia and China is anybody’s guess. But if the war happens, I don’t think China has a good chance defeating European power in 1870s and thus such a war probably ends in another treaty of humiliation for China with China potentially losing large part if not all Xinjiang and probably also northern Manchuria aka Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces (where unlike Xinjiang there is a substantial Han population, but at most 600-700 thousand i. e. equal to Russian population of bordering regions thus making the region integration into Russia possible)

2. IOTL there was a fierce debate what railways to build in the region and in what order. Three main options were Ural Railway mentioned above and two variants of the railway connecting Ural and Siberia to the main Russian railway network: northern (going from Vologda to Vyatka and then to Perm) and southern (going from Nizhny Novgorod to Kazan and from there to Yekaterinburg and Tyumen).
IOTL it was decided to first build Ural Railway (connecting main factory districts of northern Ural) that was built in 1875-1878 and in 1875 Alexander II signed the order to start building the southern variant of Siberian railway. The first one was built but the second one got delayed because of emerging crisis with Ottoman Empire (and the related massive military spending). When Russia was ready to get back to building railway to Ural and Siberia in early 1880s it was decided to first build the most crucial section of the railway connecting Yekaterinburg and Tyumen (which was completed in 1882-1885). But by that time the situation has changed since a new option emerged further south (were a railway to Samara and crucially a bridge over Volga was built in the meantime) and thus the initially agreed upon railway never fully emerged.

If IOTL Russia is in a better financial situation and/or has more investment from abroad (as I think is currently alluded; but we have to wait till 1866 world in review is posted as @EnglishCanuck suggests) years long debates of what is more important connecting Ural factories together or connecting European Russia to Siberia can potentially be avoided. If Russia can afford both options, the construction of both railways can begin at least in early 1870s thus making Perm-Yekaterinburg-Tyumen railroad a reality by 1875.
Section further west may take a bit more time (though if the money is there it can be built quickly as it close to Volga and Kama rivers and thus the railway may be built from several points simultaneously and men and supplies can be easily transported wherever necessary).

So if Russia has a bit more money, then Perm-Yekaterinburg-Tyumen railroad can be built by mid 1870s with the connecting railway following when the opportunity presents itself. However, if Russia has substantially more money available, the section from Nizhny Novgorod to Kazan and from there either to directly to Yekaterinburg or to Perm can be built simultaneously (second option is cheaper as it is ~250 km shorter and requires less bridges, second option shortens the distance to Siberia by ~150 km). So western Siberian navigable river system can potentially be connected to Moscow and St. Petersburg by railway by mid-1870s, thus making logistics in Siberia a lot cheaper and easier.

3. If Russia completes Perm-Yekaterinburg-Tyumen railway by 1870s it would dramatically increase the settlement of Western Siberia. IOTL in 1888-1894 that is after this railway was completed and became fully operational and before the western section of the Trans-Siberian railway was completed on average there were 65 thousand settlers per year into Siberia peaking at 92 thousand in 1892 (compared to 200 thousand settlers a year on average traveling by Trans-Siberian in 1897-1917 peaking at 665 thousand in 1908 and compared to less than 10 thousand per year on average for 1861-1880). While not all these settlers used Perm-Tyumen railway, most did (in 1888-1891 70-80% settlers to Siberia passed through Tyumen, in 1892-1894 85-90% did).

Thus the completion of the Perm-Tyumen railway while on average brings 3 times less settlers to Siberia than completed the Trans-Siberian railway (on peak the difference is larger, but in 1908 when 665 thousand settlers arrived to Siberia was also the peak of agrarian reform and massive governmental program to encourage the resettlement), it is at least 20 times more than resettled to Siberia before this railroad was completed.

Thus, if Perm-Tyumen railroad is finished in 1875 by 1885 the population of Siberia should increase by at least 500 thousand people compared to IOTL (assuming the first 5 years of railroad operating would bring 30 thousand additional settlers and from the 6th year onwards it would bring 65 thousand additional settlers). To compare in 1885 the total population of Siberia and Steppes District roughly corresponding to modern Kazakhstan was 5902 thousand people).

This alone could potentially bring important changes to the demography over-the-Urals part of Russian Empire.
Of course the railroad connecting the Ural Railway to the other Russian railways can potentially increase this stream of settlers (perhaps to 100-125 thousand per year) and continuing this road further at least to Tomsk would increase the stream of settlers to close OTL numbers for 1897-1917.

 

[SultanArda]

Most Xinjiang was ruled by Yakub Beg (and his state Yettishar was even recognized by several states including Ottoman Empire).
Russia in 1871 invaded Xinjiang and occupied a substantial part of it (Ili Valley around Kulja aka Yining). While in theory it was done in Qing name, Russia was extremely reluctant to return territory to China even after the governmental army defeated rebels in 1875-1878. This lead to so called Kulja Crisis and eventually Russia backed down (although retaining around 20% of occupied territory as well as getting monetary compensation and trade concession from China).

I have a question, as I am really curious about it.
What was Russia’s plans for Xinjiang? Annexation? Finding a pliable leader to “hand over” the governance?
Also, a Russia who focuses on Asia might result in the Russo-Ottoman of 1877-1878 not happening… or it will happen anyways. It was a tradition at this point for both states to go to war, and, at this points, Ottomans losing more territory than they lost in the previous one.

---

Also, what kind of changes might occur in the Ottoman Empire?
Abdulaziz is in its five year reign at this point, and he reformed the the administrative districts (vilayet) , was establishing Western style schools and was spending money (Western credits, mainly) on his new modern navy (which ironically would spend rest of its days slowly dying in the Haliç under Abdülhamid II, as he feared a coup from the Navy, though the fact that the navy was practically burning money in every move did not help) and new palaces, and in fact, would go on an Europe Tour in 1867.
I wonder what changes can occur there?

 

[Shnurre]

I have a question, as I am really curious about it.
What was Russia’s plans for Xinjiang? Annexation? Finding a pliable leader to “hand over” the governance?

It basically was an opportunistic move.
In case China was unable to reconquer Xinjiang, Russia would almost certainly eventually annex the occupied territory (and probably conquer at least part of the remaining East Turkestan). This outcome probably looked quite plausible in 1870s.
In case China was able to reconquer the province (as it happened IOTL) Russia would try to persuade China to accept the Russian overlordship or if it is impossible to give most of it back and receive monetary compensation and/or trade concessions (exactly like happened IOTL: Russia god the concessions, 9 million gold rubles and 20% of the occupied area). If not for Berlin Congress there is little doubt that Russia would get much more.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I would agree this seems likely, and of course that might depend on how relations across the Americas develop further - I do not think that in any future US/CS round two a Mexican entry on he tside of the CS would be inevitable or even necessarily likely. Not to compare TTL with "Cinco de Mayo" but that one took a very specific set of circumstances to get Mexico and the CSA aligned, and it was pretty much reader and in-universe consensus that if the anti-US bloc had won the local WW1 analog the two countries would have immediately fallen out over the spoills of war.

And with us having seen most of North America, I wonder what else we will be seeing in 1866. The main thing I am curious to see for the rest of the world is if the Austro-Prussian war still happened in a similar way to OTL.

I agree. The Confederacy is not destined to end up in a Round 2 with the US either, but if they do there's nothing inevitable about Mexico being dragged into the conflict. I do see that much depends on how the next 50 years shape up, but as of 1866 (and small spoiler, 1870) neither the US or the Confederacy will be seeking any entanglements in the European powers business. The CSA because what happens in Europe outside the economy is foreign to them, while the USA doesn't want any further foreign conflicts to become entangled in.

As for the rest of the world, we will soon be finding out!

 

[EnglishCanuck]

There were also a few slaves which historically escaped into Mexico, which I imagine Maximilian will be happy to continue.

Apparently there was an attempt OTL by the US to get Mexico to agree to return fugitive slaves, which fortunately Mexico declined.

Mexico will now be an alternate destination as well. Though there's less slaves immediately on the border, while the Confederates haven't really figured on what to do about fugitive slaves there. Max, with his liberal tendencies, is unlikely to make any effort to accomodate the Confederacy.

The Confederates overwhelming fear now is the underground railroad going north and having no recompense for property, but also they are terrified of John Brown copycats who want to take advantage of the now simmer freemen population near the border.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I imagine relations will very much depend on who succeeds McClellan. You could see someone who's more of a warhawk and makes threatening moves to their neighbours, forcing Mexico to seek closer ties to France and potentially the CSA to secure their safety. Or you could see a president far more concerned with fixing the nation and seeking closer ties to Mexico to isolate the CSA.

Presently McClellan has a very "live and let live" policy with his neighbors. He views any attempt to antagonize European powers as tantamount to suicide. So he wants to repair relations, but not everyone does. His successors will run the gambit from doves to hawks. It's his immediate successor people ought to be concerned with.