Would constant external competition have done the Qing Dynasty good ?

Excerpted from Peter Perdue’s “China Marches West: The Qing Conquest
of Central Eurasia”

Pp 563-565


“R. Bin Wong argues hypothetically that if, say, the successors to
Zheng Chenggong, the powerful mercantile adventurer whose empire
briefly occupied Taiwan in the seventeenth century, had created a
powerful southeastern merchahnt empire in China and held out against
the Qing through the eighteenth century, Qing officials would have
been much more interested in articles of trade, such as weaponry, that
the British had to offer. The British, in turn, would not have had to
push opium to offset their silver outflow, and China could have
resisted pressure to open treaty ports. “In short, a politically
powerful China more able to resist militarily the British demands of
the 1830s and 1840s could have resulted from a successful Southeast
Chinese merchant empire.” Wong does not claim that this outcome was
likely but offers the possibility as a way to envisage alternative
futures for China in the nineteenth century.


But one could argue for the same outcome if a Mongolian state had held
out in the northwest. (This scenario is more plausible than Wong’s, in
fact, since such a state did last for nearly a century { }, while the
Zheng regime held Taiwan only from 1661 to 1683.) Then the Qing
rulers would also have been interested in getting modern arms for
their military expeditions, just as they had contracted for arms
production from Jesuits in the seventeenth century. They could have
used British military experience, and might even have invited the
British to observe their campaigns, like the Jesuits who observed the
eighteenth century wars. Chinese armies had, in fact, come in contact
with British arms during their incursions into Burma in the late 18th
century but failed to borrow any new military technology from the
experience. Had there been a strong Mongolian state, it to possible
to imagine greater Sino-British military cooperation. The Chinese,
aware of the British presence in India, likewise might have realized
potential British influence in Tibet, concerned as they were with
keeping Tibet out of Mongol hands. This hypothetical argument
highlights the openness of China’s relations with foreign powers
created by its frontier expansion, and points to the possibility of
more fluid geopolitical alliances, each of which had effects on
military balances, technological reform, and the political economy of
trade.


In sum, a view from the frontier shows why the the completion of
territorial expansion removed the dynamics of state building, policy
debates, and institutional formation that responded to a competitive
geopolitical environment. Four interacting processes opened the Qing
to western European penetration in the nineteenth century.: new
challengers appeared on the south coast shortly after the defeat of
the Mongols; policies that were effective against steppe nomads failed
in the martime environment of the south; the negotiated settlements
that balanced Qing central interests with local power-holders began to
shift toward decentralization; and commercialization underway since
the sixteenth century undermined loyalties to the center.”


thoughts?
 

Faeelin

Banned
This is actually pretty clever, and I want to respond in depth shortly. But I think this wouldn't just affect military technology; the Qing state was "inefficient", in terms of taxation, in many respects.
 
And also that "southeastern empire" would have some problems with the Spanish, the Dutch and the French and the North one with the Russians, very difficult to pull ...
 
And also that "southeastern empire" would have some problems with the Spanish, the Dutch and the French and the North one with the Russians, very difficult to pull ...

Though speaking of Russia...is it possible to have a recurring conflict between them and the Qing starting in the 17th or early 18th centuries? I doubt Russia would be able to inflict any serious damage to the Qing, but the experience might demonstrate the need to modernize the Qing armies.

EDIT: Now that I think about it, the Spanish, Dutch, or British would also work...before the 19th century, someone needs to give the Qing a bloody nose so they can realize just how much they need European weapons and technology
 
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Russia and other power

Mirza Khan
EDIT: Now that I think about it, the Spanish, Dutch, or British would also work...before the 19th century, someone needs to give the Qing a bloody nose so they can realize just how much they need European weapons and technology

Imbalances of power (the intimidating size of the Qing empire) and Europeans being really busy with each other helped prevent Chinese-European warfare until 1839, as did the peculiar defensive requirements of the Qing.

But its not like it couldn't have happened. If the Spanish or Dutch tried to gain back some of Taiwan when the Qings were taking it? Or if Koxinga's pirate state took up a bit of Luzon and then both the Qings and Spaniards went to reover it.

Or, if the Qings had reasons to expand a little to the southwest. What if the Burmese shelter Ming pretenders instead of handing them over, and the Qings acquire an interest in Burma the same time they got involved in OTL Tibet? This could, if you kept playing with it, lead them to have some strategic interests in adjacent parts of India like Bengal, where they could fight the British or French during the 7 Years War.



Mirza Khan
Though speaking of Russia...is it possible to have a recurring conflict between them and the Qing starting in the 17th or early 18th centuries? I doubt Russia would be able to inflict any serious damage to the Qing, but the experience might demonstrate the need to modernize the Qing armies.

Well, one thing Perdue points out in the second book as that a persistent independent Mongol state under the Dzhungars (ruling over Xinjiang and western Mongolia) could have served that function as a continental enemy as Russia did for China in the 1920s and 1960s-1980s. The Dzhunghars were incorporating European military technology wherever they could.

But back to Russia.

I've tried to game this out. I pulled together a very rough outline of the periods where the Russians might not have had too much on their plate to mess with China. As it turns out, Sino-Russian relations between the 1689 expulsion of the Russians from the Amur, until the late 19th century, were very peaceful. Russia did not attempt territorial gains again until 1856.


The Qings were fighting their "war to end all wars" against the Mongols in the 1750s, and got testy with the Russians for not turning over the remains of the last Mongol ruler, Amursana in the 1760s.

In 1771, Qing officials enticed back Mongol Kalmyks from the Volga to Qing territory, which let the Mongols escape tax and military service obligations to Tsar, something Catherine the great could have made into a casus belli if she had wanted to.

Still, the overwhelming picture of Russian history between 1689 and 1856 is that it has got its hands full in European and western Asian wars and revolts.


Chronology of Russia’s wars - see when they might have had time to get into China.

1720, Bering expeditions through 1840s, demonstrating precociousness in North America that might have been paralleled in Asia.

Tsarina Anna – 1730s – regained Azov, gained leverage on Poland.

1730s – 1740s ? However, Trade Treaty of Kiakhta was a sweet deal, they probably wouldn’t want to mess with for some time.

1740s early 1750s?
Russia had involvement, at least on the periphery, in the war of Austrian Succession, on Austria’s side I believe.



Prior to 1756 – involvement in last Amursana campaign?


Tsarina Elizabeth, 1740-1762

So, it was Elizabeth in charge when Russia participated in the 7 years war (and the earlier war of Austrian succession) and which were contemporary with the Qing campaigns against Amursana

Russia in 7 Years War from 1756 to 1762
1762-1796, Catherine the Great – (what if she was into China?) 1772, first partition of Poland - 1788, Ottoman war against Russia – 16 years if peace between, some of which was consumed by the American Revolution – Perhaps though there was an Ottoman war 1773-1775, 1773, also Pugachev rebellion. Suvorov in China?

Perhaps early 1760s 1762-1768, an opportunity to fight China. Perhaps Chinese interest in importing French or British arms, as a consequence.

1768-1774 Russo-Ottoman war,Suvorov wins victories by the end.

Contemporaneous with American Revolution might have been longest opportunity for a Russo-Chinese war.

1775-1783 – (fairly free window of opportunity for the Russians to mess around in Asia, while the American Revolutionary war rages on).

1783 – conquest of Crimea

1788 – 1792 whatever, additional war with Ottomans
Brief war with Sweden

BTW, Joseph was to attack the Ottomans but hardly got anywhere.

Maybe 1790s, after MacCartney expedition, might be a good time to fight in China, while Polish partitions were going on, but before war of 2nd coalition. Russia would not be able to concentrate for long.

2nd and 3rd partitions of Poland 1792-1795

Tsar Paul 1796- 1801 participated in war of 2nd coalition and Caucasus campaigns.

Chronology notes – the last war of Qianlong versus Amursana – 1756-1757, with Turkestan campaigns till 1765

Initial war aims, recovery of Amur country, or trade concessions.

Period of Russian tensions over Amursana- 1758 until some time afterwards – Qing threatened to cut off trade and besieged monks.

1770-1771, flight of the Torghuts from the Volga to Qing territory -

MacCartney’s mission – 1793

Reign of Qianlong 1735-1799 -

He finished conquests by about 1765 or so. By his last decades, a time of revolts began. The revolts of the late 1700s all seemed to be deep in the interior, in core north or central China.

(Wiki – Russian explorers, anglo-russian war, russo-chinese relations, chronology of Qing wars).

19th century opportunities – 1815-1829 (though Greece will command attention from 1821 onward) – 1830-1853 – Nicholas I or Alexander.
 
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broader societal shifts?

This is actually pretty clever, and I want to respond in depth shortly. But I think this wouldn't just affect military technology; the Qing state was "inefficient", in terms of taxation, in many respects.

I was intrigued about what Faeelin had in mind for a response.
 
Though speaking of Russia...is it possible to have a recurring conflict between them and the Qing starting in the 17th or early 18th centuries? I doubt Russia would be able to inflict any serious damage to the Qing, but the experience might demonstrate the need to modernize the Qing armies.

EDIT: Now that I think about it, the Spanish, Dutch, or British would also work...before the 19th century, someone needs to give the Qing a bloody nose so they can realize just how much they need European weapons and technology

The Vietnamese did.
 
When actually?

I'm forgetting if and when the Qing and Vietnamese fought.

I know the Vietnamese fought off the Mongols, and successfully won independence from the Ming Chinese.
 
Check out for Nguyen Hue. It was late 18 century. The Qing eventually managed to exploit Vetnamese internal divisions to get an outcome acceptable to them, but it was not very satisfactory.
Edit: after a quick search, I can't find reference to Qing militarily supporting Gia Long when he defeated the Tai Son, so yeah, the Qing were defeated by Nguyen Hue, period. Well, I guess China was favorable to the Nguyen overthrowing the Tai Son in any case.
 
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Faeelin

Banned
I was intrigued about what Faeelin had in mind for a response.

Gah, sorry, sorry. I need to pick up a book on the history of firearms. But the long and short of it is that even into the 18th century, steppe armies were doing pretty well against those armed with guns.
 

Faeelin

Banned
I promised raharris I would comment on the idea of a more innovative China which used more firearms and kept up with the Joneses (the e Joneses who worked for the East India Company, at any rate).

So, here it is.

First, the thing to understand is that geography seems to have been key to the development of firearms in China. Firearms first came into use in the 10th-13th century, when China was divided among warring states. Indeed, the firesst use of firearms in the 1100s coincided with a period fo disunity between 1127 and 1276, which was ended when the Mongols took over.

The fall of the Yuan also saw rapid innovation in firearms, as the Ming, the Wu, the Han, and the Mongols struggled for control of China. Dozens of cannons have been excavated from the territories of the Wu regime, and they mention prominently in military treatises form this period. The Ming used firearms to methodolically demolish Wu fortifications at Suzhou and Hangzhou, and the Ming turned to face the Mongols.

Now, how are firearms gonna help against the Mongols? They had no walled cities to take. They had flocks and herds, and the threat they posed was their ability to invade China, not the other way around. There were probably fewer men in Mongolia than there were soldiers in China, but every Mongolian knew how to use a compound bow. Given the difficulty of feeding an army along the Northern frontier, and the advantage the Mongolians had in training, the number of Mongolians who could fight may have been equivalent ot the entire size of the Ming army.

A campaign in 1410 gives an idea of the problem. It took 3 months to reach Outer Mongolia, three months to return, and the Ming armies had to be supplied over land each way. The Ming did bring firearms with them; but they were not the problem. The problem was getting anywhere and fighting. This problem lasted into the 16th century, and the Chinese did grope towards problems. In the 1560s and 1570s the Chiense began organizing infantry brigades with wagons which they could fight on. In other words, rather like the laagers of Eastern Europe.
What about in invading Vietnam? Well, early firearms were ineffective against the Vietnamese; the Chinese, after all, held the walled towns. Early firearms were not useful in combating guerilla warfare, either in China or in Europe (as the Europeans would learn in the Americas).

So by 1500, the Europeans were ahead of the Chinese in firearms. But the Chinese were familiar enough to recognize that there was a difference between European and Ottoman muskets, viewing the latter as having more stopping power. And it's noteworthy that when the Portuguese, in 1522, sailed to China to force trade open at gunpoint, they were forced to retreat when one of their vessels was blown up by a hit from a Chinese cannon. After the battle, the Chinese officers present presented the captured Portuguese weaponry to the court, and were given responsibility for copying them. The fact that immediately after taking them the Chinese set about copying them should indicate, I think, that the Chinese were not hostile to foreign innovation.

By the 17th century, of course, the Ming faced another threat. The Manchus. In response firearm use increased (the Mign defeated a Manchu incursion in 1626 through the use of heavy cannon), and the Ming made efforts to train men in the Portuguese style. Unfortuntaely, the unit was wiped out by mutineers. (Survivors of the massacre escaped to Manchuria to give the new weapons to the Manchus).

So how did the Qing conquer the steppes when the Min g failed? The Manchus were simply better at diplomacy, perhaps due to their quasi-nomadic orrigins. For instance, the Manchus adopted Tibetan Buddhism because it was the Buddhism of the Mongols, not the Buddhism of the Chinese.

Would a surviving Dzungar state have encouraged firearm development? Perhaps, but history shows that firearms were not what the Chinese needed to conquer the steppes. And the Russian experience also suggests firearms were not a cureall solution. As the Russians adopted more and more firearms in the 17th century, they faced increasing challenges fighting the Crimean Tatars. When the Russians tried to assault the Crimean in 1687, they simply failed to reach it, because the Tatars set fire to the grass and made it impossible to reach it.

A Southern Ming state would have posed a more interesting challenge. But the Dzungars? I don't see how they would have encouraged the development of firearms anymore than OTL's Mongols did(n't).
 
Another recommendation for Peter Perdue's book.

IMO the most plausible "external" competition would have to come from within, namely the restive southern Chinese who chaffed at Manchu occupation.

A promising starting point is Taiwan, and here I reference one of my threads on Koxinga invading the Philippines.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=176846&highlight=koxinga

The Zheng regime stuck on Taiwan was ultimately doomed because it had no strategic depth to withstand the Qing blockade. If Koxinga had lived past age 37 and occupied Luzon history would be very different. Just as Koxinga's son Zheng Jing faced a Manchu-Dutch alliance, Koxinga of this timeline would find the Spanish also allied with the Manchus against him.

To defeat Koxinga, the Manchus would have to build a much larger fleet. IOTL there was already considerable naval action, for example the battle of Penghu were nearly a thousand vessels were engaged, including the use of imported Dutch cannons. We can expect greater European naval influence among both sides in this scenario.

Furthermore, Koxinga's out numbered forces could conceivably copy European flintlocks. It's use could spread to mainland China during the Revolt of the Three Feudatories. With the Chinese rebels using flintlocks, the Manchus would have to upgrade their weapons as well to maintain their grip in southern China.

With such weapons entering into mainstream use, the Manchu frontier expansions under Emperor Qianlong would no doubt see further use and development of these Western arms in the Qing armies.

The longer the Zheng regime holds out in Taiwan/Philippines the more role there would be for European merchants plying trade on both sides of the Taiwan strait.
 

Faeelin

Banned
IMO the most plausible "external" competition would have to come from within, namely the restive southern Chinese who chaffed at Manchu occupation.

The longer the Zheng regime holds out in Taiwan/Philippines the more role there would be for European merchants plying trade on both sides of the Taiwan strait.

Of course, a lot of the Qing opposition to foreign trade and overseas expansion was related to fears of the Southern Chinese being the nucleus for resistance. This is why they were willing to extend protection to Chinese who traveled to Southeast Asia to trade annually, but not to Chinese who settled there.

(Although given the funding for the Kuomintang in the 20th century, I guess they were right).

One imagines that trend would be exacerbated here, no?
 
Of course, a lot of the Qing opposition to foreign trade and overseas expansion was related to fears of the Southern Chinese being the nucleus for resistance. This is why they were willing to extend protection to Chinese who traveled to Southeast Asia to trade annually, but not to Chinese who settled there.

(Although given the funding for the Kuomintang in the 20th century, I guess they were right).

One imagines that trend would be exacerbated here, no?

I would say so. The Qing successfully placed limits on Chinese trade with the west because there was no surviving Chinese Taiwan to do defy them. If there was an ethnic Han competitor off shore that was gaining a technological and economic leg up through foreign trade, that would change southern Chinese attitude toward their Manchu rulers. The Manchus would have to also be forced into this arms race, just as they had to modernize to deal with the Taipings.
 
I would say so. The Qing successfully placed limits on Chinese trade with the west because there was no surviving Chinese Taiwan to do defy them. If there was an ethnic Han competitor off shore that was gaining a technological and economic leg up through foreign trade, that would change southern Chinese attitude toward their Manchu rulers. The Manchus would have to also be forced into this arms race, just as they had to modernize to deal with the Taipings.

How long could such a Southern state survive though? If the Qing modernize, then they'll probbly be able to deal with the puny southern upstart nation. Perhaps the Taiwanese state gains European aid?
 
If they move to Luzon, probably indefinately. Failing to expand from Taiwan doomed them.
I think Brunei protecting chinese settlements in it's empire,OTL/present day Philippines and Borneo would be a start including the hakka state in borneo can create some competitiin.
 
How long could such a Southern state survive though? If the Qing modernize, then they'll probbly be able to deal with the puny southern upstart nation. Perhaps the Taiwanese state gains European aid?

Converting to Catholicism might get them Spanish aid, might make it unnecessary to have to move to Luzon at all.
 

Faeelin

Banned
I would say so. The Qing successfully placed limits on Chinese trade with the west because there was no surviving Chinese Taiwan to do defy them. If there was an ethnic Han competitor off shore that was gaining a technological and economic leg up through foreign trade, that would change southern Chinese attitude toward their Manchu rulers. The Manchus would have to also be forced into this arms race, just as they had to modernize to deal with the Taipings.

Well the Southern Chinese would want to trade, obviously. But the Qing wouldn't want to, and we're talking about a state that tried to depopulate the coast in order to cripple Koxinga...

Why didn't Koxinga's son attack Luzon, BTW?
 

Thande

Donor
The fact that immediately after taking them the Chinese set about copying them should indicate, I think, that the Chinese were not hostile to foreign innovation.

Well, not as far as firearms were concerned, anyway. The Qing recognised that they were falling behind Europe in the late 18th century after observing frontier clashes with Russians, and attempted to obtain more advanced European cannon to copy from Sweden (of all places) but the deal never came off.
 
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