World War III starts in 1945

CalBear

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I would urgently suggest that the fact that a flight sim, designed around a specific Soviet aircraft and meant to be played by the average joe is a rather lousy way of determining the capacity of the respective air forces in question.

To wit:

The MiG-9 didn't even fly for the 1st time until the spring of 1946 and it didn't reach squadrons until December 1946 and then in low numbers due to a chokepoint in engine production. There is zero chance of moving this time line because the aircraft was powered by copies of captured German BMW 003 engines (the engine used in the He-162 and late version of the Ar-234). The Soviets didn't get the YaK-15 into even single squadron prodiction until Spring of 1947 (the aircraft was also only about 30MPH faster than the Late model Mustdang and P-47N). Since we are talking about mid-late 1945 these aircraft are less than ready.

It also needs to be noted that the YaK-9, probably the best high altitude Soviet design, was woefully underarmed to deal with Allied (especially U.S.) heavy bombers. Most of the aircraft had ONE 20mm Cannon and ONE 12.7mm (.50 cal) machine gun, with even the later up-gunned version only having 2 12.7mm. This is the armament American aircraft had in 1940. Even the La-7 was generally armed with 2 20mm guns (and couldn't fly as high as a B-29 in any case). If you are going after a B-29 with that sort of armament it is best to pack a lunch.

Unescorted fighter are, indeed vulnerable to enemy fighters. That is why American bombers would be escorted by long range fighters flown by men with several years experience at the task. A Mustang or P-47N is a great solution to enemy fighters (for that matter a P-80 flying from France could escort well into the Ukraine and across Eastern Europe, where the Supply lines and supply dumps would located).
 
Good points.

There was Yak 9U that had a 37mm cannon which could hit a large target at 1km. Just one 37mm cannon round would bring down a B29.

As to the La 7 from what I'm reading it had a ceiling of 31168 ft. The B29 flew at 25000 of lower for maximum range and bombing height. Both the La 7 and the 9U could reach the required height I believe.

There was also the Yak 3R and La 7R. Both rather inexpensive rocket assisted fighters that may have made a difference.

If nothing else they had some captured KI 84 and KI 100 from Manchuria. Both of these models were more than capable of tearing apart a B29. Maybe a little reverse engineering. The also had some captured German TA 152s from what I understand.

My point being that I find it hard to believe that a nation that defeated the German army could not produce a fighter that could catch and shoot down a B29 if the need arose. It did for the Japanese and they made the afore mentioned KI-100.

Another weapon that they might have gotten their hands on was the Ruhrstahl X-4 wire guided missile. As modeled in IL2 Sturmovik 1946 it is devastating to bomber formations.

IMO I don't think that a nation as creative and focused on it's very survival couldn't find a solution to the problem in fairly short order.

"I would urgently suggest that the fact that a flight sim, designed around a specific Soviet aircraft and meant to be played by the average joe is a rather lousy way of determining the capacity of the respective air forces in question."

And I would disagree.

If properly modeled I can think of no better way to determine if something is possible than to model it on a computer if you can't recreate the actual machine. I hardly think that spouting a few numbers is a better way then using a computer model that hopefully takes into account all the variables which IL2 1946 does.

From wind buffeting to prop wash every relevant variable that I know of is simulated. On maximum settings this is not a game for the average joe.

I can't personally keep a plane in the air in a dogfight on maximum settings with having to remember when to hit the turbo charge or close or open the radiator or setting the trim while trying to aim while the wind and head shake is throwing your aim all off, while keeping an eye on the gauges to make sure you oil pressure and engine pressure are in the black, while experiencing black out because you turned too sharp etc.

Now if you show me that the flight model is wrong that's a different matter.

I'm just inquiring...are you familiar with IL2 1946 at all? Maybe you know something I don't about it's flight modeling. As far as I know it is very accurate but I maybe wrong.
 

CalBear

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A proper flight modeling program would be useful. Unfortunately, a proper flight sim model would sell less than 10 copies because, well, that is about how many pilots of Il-2 or P-51D would buy them. What is available it a game, one that is designed for game play, not accuracy. The fact that it doesn't even spell the name of the aircraft (it is Shturmovik not Sturmovik when you translate it into English) is also interesting as well as an illustration of the "playability over accuracy" of any game.

As an example, how long does an Il-2 survive in one-on-one combat with any German fighter? If the time exceeds 60 seconds, it is inaccurate as a real sim. If it manages to shoot down the attacker in anything more than once in a hundred encounter it is unrealistic. While remarkably well armored from ground fire, the Shturmovik was quite vulnerable to fighter attack if the attacker came in from a high angle of attack and hit the crew compartment or the engine (there is also some evidence from post-war interrogation of German pilots that the plane was vulnerable to attack from below and behind due to its non-retractable oil cooler; Soviet veterans dispute this). For that matter how long does the rear seater survive in the game. In real combat, the Soviets actually came up with a spring that kept the rear gun in the up position so Luftwaffe pilots would not know when the killed the gunner since they died so often. A good number of the gunners were punishment troops. They were offered freedom if the made it through 10 flights as a gunner. Since Stalin was loath to let punishment troops earn freedom, I think the math is pretty clear (of course any of the poor souls who survived 9 missions were than transferred to mine clearance units for their last month of service; Stalin was not a good person).

I'll go even further. How difficult is it to take off in a P-51 in the game? Or land it? If it is anything less than the most difficult part of the game, it is unrealistic. How does the Mustang handle before you use up the 40 gallons of fuel in the tank behind the pilot? If it is anything other than a total pig, or if the game doesn't consider it, it isn't realistic. How difficult is it to adjust the propeller pitch? What about choke settings?

How does the La-7 handle at 31K compared to 25K? The same? Vastly different, with a pronounced problem in banking and a lot of sideslip while in level flight? How about throttle response at 31K? How much does the speed fall off? If it doesn't drop by at least 20% (more likely 30%) the sim isn't modeling actual performance.

Just the idea that you could hit a target a kilometer away with a 37mm cannon with anything other than blind luck is also instructive. Simply doesn't happen in real life unless you mange to settle in directly behind the target, and even then the turbulence from the bomber box is going to bounce you around by 10-12 feet until you get close to an individual aircraft. How much bucking does the sim model in when you are approaching a bomber box from behind? How often are you shot down by the gunners? IRL the Luftwaffe lost more aircraft in air-to-air combat with B-17s than any other type of aircraft flown by any of the Allies. If you aren't shot down as often as you are successful the sim is designed for enjoyment, not realism.

The B-29 flew at 25K in the PTO because going higher put it into the teeth of the Jet Stream over Japan, the Jet Stream was commonly at 110 MPH (sometimes up to 160mph), with it the B-29 would have ground speed of over 400 mph, against it, it would max out at about 200 knots, usually much less. The B-29 also didn't need to fly over 25K because most of the Japanese fighter were total pigs at that height or higher. Actually, for the most part, B-29s flew at 5,000-6,000 feet, the better to create firestorms. Nonetheless it was rate for and could hold 33K with reasonable performance and solid control, something that was lacking in most fighters at that height.

How long do you think it would take to reverse engineer the death traps that the Japanese flew? The IJA's best attack method against the B-29 was a Kamikaze attack. Tends to use up your airframes and pilots, but it was effective (see the recent book Whirlwind for some useful information on this tactic). It is important to recall that the POD calls for a 1945 war, not 1947 or 48. The Red Air Force was going to have to play the hand available, not the hand it would have two years later. If one goes into that mode, the U.S. will have the potential for both B-45 and B-36 bombers and F-84 fighters while the USSR will not have the RR Nene that they got IOTL so no MiG-15 is on the horizon.



Good points.

There was Yak 9U that had a 37mm cannon which could hit a large target at 1km. Just one 37mm cannon round would bring down a B29.

As to the La 7 from what I'm reading it had a ceiling of 31168 ft. The B29 flew at 25000 of lower for maximum range and bombing height. Both the La 7 and the 9U could reach the required height I believe.

There was also the Yak 3R and La 7R. Both rather inexpensive rocket assisted fighters that may have made a difference.

If nothing else they had some captured KI 84 and KI 100 from Manchuria. Both of these models were more than capable of tearing apart a B29. Maybe a little reverse engineering. The also had some captured German TA 152s from what I understand.

My point being that I find it hard to believe that a nation that defeated the German army could not produce a fighter that could catch and shoot down a B29 if the need arose. It did for the Japanese and they made the afore mentioned KI-100.

Another weapon that they might have gotten their hands on was the Ruhrstahl X-4 wire guided missile. As modeled in IL2 Sturmovik 1946 it is devastating to bomber formations.

IMO I don't think that a nation as creative and focused on it's very survival couldn't find a solution to the problem in fairly short order.

"I would urgently suggest that the fact that a flight sim, designed around a specific Soviet aircraft and meant to be played by the average joe is a rather lousy way of determining the capacity of the respective air forces in question."

And I would disagree.

If properly modeled I can think of no better way to determine if something is possible than to model it on a computer if you can't recreate the actual machine. I hardly think that spouting a few numbers is a better way then using a computer model that hopefully takes into account all the variables which IL2 1946 does.

From wind buffeting to prop wash every relevant variable that I know of is simulated. On maximum settings this is not a game for the average joe.

I can't personally keep a plane in the air in a dogfight on maximum settings with having to remember when to hit the turbo charge or close or open the radiator or setting the trim while trying to aim while the wind and head shake is throwing your aim all off, while keeping an eye on the gauges to make sure you oil pressure and engine pressure are in the black, while experiencing black out because you turned too sharp etc.

Now if you show me that the flight model is wrong that's a different matter.

I'm just inquiring...are you familiar with IL2 1946 at all? Maybe you know something I don't about it's flight modeling. As far as I know it is very accurate but I maybe wrong.
 

backstab

Banned
A proper flight modeling program would be useful. Unfortunately, a proper flight sim model would sell less than 10 copies because, well, that is about how many pilots of Il-2 or P-51D would buy them. What is available it a game, one that is designed for game play, not accuracy. The fact that it doesn't even spell the name of the aircraft (it is Shturmovik not Sturmovik when you translate it into English) is also interesting as well as an illustration of the "playability over accuracy" of any game.

As an example, how long does an Il-2 survive in one-on-one combat with any German fighter? If the time exceeds 60 seconds, it is inaccurate as a real sim. If it manages to shoot down the attacker in anything more than once in a hundred encounter it is unrealistic. While remarkably well armored from ground fire, the Shturmovik was quite vulnerable to fighter attack if the attacker came in from a high angle of attack and hit the crew compartment or the engine (there is also some evidence from post-war interrogation of German pilots that the plane was vulnerable to attack from below and behind due to its non-retractable oil cooler; Soviet veterans dispute this). For that matter how long does the rear seater survive in the game. In real combat, the Soviets actually came up with a spring that kept the rear gun in the up position so Luftwaffe pilots would not know when the killed the gunner since they died so often. A good number of the gunners were punishment troops. They were offered freedom if the made it through 10 flights as a gunner. Since Stalin was loath to let punishment troops earn freedom, I think the math is pretty clear (of course any of the poor souls who survived 9 missions were than transferred to mine clearance units for their last month of service; Stalin was not a good person).

I'll go even further. How difficult is it to take off in a P-51 in the game? Or land it? If it is anything less than the most difficult part of the game, it is unrealistic. How does the Mustang handle before you use up the 40 gallons of fuel in the tank behind the pilot? If it is anything other than a total pig, or if the game doesn't consider it, it isn't realistic. How difficult is it to adjust the propeller pitch? What about choke settings?

How does the La-7 handle at 31K compared to 25K? The same? Vastly different, with a pronounced problem in banking and a lot of sideslip while in level flight? How about throttle response at 31K? How much does the speed fall off? If it doesn't drop by at least 20% (more likely 30%) the sim isn't modeling actual performance.

Just the idea that you could hit a target a kilometer away with a 37mm cannon with anything other than blind luck is also instructive. Simply doesn't happen in real life unless you mange to settle in directly behind the target, and even then the turbulence from the bomber box is going to bounce you around by 10-12 feet until you get close to an individual aircraft. How much bucking does the sim model in when you are approaching a bomber box from behind? How often are you shot down by the gunners? IRL the Luftwaffe lost more aircraft in air-to-air combat with B-17s than any other type of aircraft flown by any of the Allies. If you aren't shot down as often as you are successful the sim is designed for enjoyment, not realism.

The B-29 flew at 25K in the PTO because going higher put it into the teeth of the Jet Stream over Japan, the Jet Stream was commonly at 110 MPH (sometimes up to 160mph), with it the B-29 would have ground speed of over 400 mph, against it, it would max out at about 200 knots, usually much less. The B-29 also didn't need to fly over 25K because most of the Japanese fighter were total pigs at that height or higher. Actually, for the most part, B-29s flew at 5,000-6,000 feet, the better to create firestorms. Nonetheless it was rate for and could hold 33K with reasonable performance and solid control, something that was lacking in most fighters at that height.

How long do you think it would take to reverse engineer the death traps that the Japanese flew? The IJA's best attack method against the B-29 was a Kamikaze attack. Tends to use up your airframes and pilots, but it was effective (see the recent book Whirlwind for some useful information on this tactic). It is important to recall that the POD calls for a 1945 war, not 1947 or 48. The Red Air Force was going to have to play the hand available, not the hand it would have two years later. If one goes into that mode, the U.S. will have the potential for both B-45 and B-36 bombers and F-84 fighters while the USSR will not have the RR Nene that they got IOTL so no MiG-15 is on the horizon.
CalBear,

I've got the game and can back your comments up by saying, while its a great PC Flight Sim ... its NOT realistic. If it was, then it would not sell. Its a GAME ! and comparing it to real aircraft is like comparing MW2 to real combat !
 
The thread hasn't moved on for years.

Soviet view: Soviets smash through allied lines in Germany, destroying or capturing most of the forces there. They proceed to mop up mainland Europe, with the still fragile post-war states capable of only limited resistance and not capable of anything like total war. Without any real opportunity for another invasion peace is effectively declared with the US abandoning Europe.

American view: Airpower shatters Soviet supply lines almost immediately and as a consequence the first Soviet offensive campaign entirely fizzles out. Airpower proceeds to grind down the Soviets as Allied armies advance more or less as they did in 44-45 in Europe. Nuclear suns appear over Moscow and the key industrial sites in the Urals either further enabling advances or causing immediate and unconditional Soviet surrender.

Bizzare view: Entire world allies against the Soviets. Mysteriously equipped, fed and morally charged German and Japanese armies swarm into Allied ranks without massive outcry from almost everyone involved. Moscow disappears early and despite the Soviets ruling huge swathes of territory and having huge armies in the field they immediately surrender unconditionally. Oh, because its always amusing, I shall never forget AMBOMB's suggestion that B-29's could be used to tactically bomb Soviet formations, presumerably even as those formations are on the advance right on top of Allied positions.

Anyway, the debate all hinges on how effective an equivelent to the Soviet Invasion of Manchuria would be against the respective Allied forces in Western Germany. The Japanese were obviously significantly inferior, in every respect, to the Allied forces, however the Soviets are also quite a bit superior* to anything the Allies have faced in recent years. I guess you could try and create some extremely accurate simulation, but I suspect it will never be resolved. One thing I think is for sure is that this opening campaign shall be on a larger scale than anything the Western Allies have yet seen in WW2, dwarfing the Battle of the Bulge, and even if victorious Allied casulties are likely to be in the hundreds of thousands rather than tens. While I think most would agree the Red Airforce was good for little beyond acting as mobile artillery, I wonder whether the very fact of challenging the skies, even if in an extremely suicidal way, would place an entirely different slant on the situation compared with 1944-45 where Allied Supremacy was fairly unchallenged.

*Okay, I guess some Wehrmacht fanboy just had a heart attack, but taken as an entire organisation, rather than breaking it down into a handful of divisions and incidents, I think this is a justified claim, certainly by late 44-45.
 
If this happens because Stalin opts to Punish Patton for racing into Berlin then:

-The USA will nuke the Soviet Union at least a handful of times
-The Soviet Politburo will depose Stalin; given the state of affairs in Eastern Europe, I could see this desperate cadre willing to throw the scorched lands of Ukraine and Belorussia if that's what it takes to earn a peace deal. The USA's initial demands might be 1939 borders, but I could see a vengeful USA increasing its demands.
-The USA will selectively choose friends from Eastern Europe. Czechoslovakia and Poland will definitely be included, and a case could be made for Finland, the Baltics and perhaps a Free Ukraine. I'm not sure whether nations like Romania, Hungary or Bulgaria would be accepted.
-This war is hopeless for the Soviets. Even a drive to the Atlantic in Europe, the Persian Gulf in the Middle East and the Sea of Japan in Asia would do little to diminish the resources of the United States, nor would it preclude nuclear bombardment. The question of when the Soviets fold, and on what terms, is pretty much the crux of this scenario.

So, when the shooting stops in 1947, it is Brest-Litovsk in the East once again.
 
Oh, because its always amusing, I shall never forget AMBOMB's suggestion that B-29's could be used to tactically bomb Soviet formations, presumerably even as those formations are on the advance right on top of Allied positions.

Well in Cobra they used B17 and B24 in that sort of mission and it worked, so well that did wipe out some of the allied troops but the German division, simply disappeared ...

And while really tough, I think the Red Army is always overvalued, the AA faced in Overlord almost as many armored German divisions than the Soviets in the entire east front, and broke their backs, that speaks clearly that the German took seriously the west allies ... and that they delivered

But all of this is a bit futile, Stalin was ruthless and cruel, and make some blunders but it was not a fool like Hitler by any means, he know that the Soviets need time to recover, and also his relation with Roosevelt was not bad at all, he distrusted Churchill but not the American president ...
 
I guess some of us have to agree to disagree on many points.

I still contend that the Soviets would have put up quite a fight and the war would not have been over in a matter of weeks with the USAAF decimating the Red Army.

I have a number of historical US Joint Chiefs of Staff studies. While they all start their plans in 1946 you can extrapolate a number of their conclusions to the end of 1945.

Not one predicts a cake walk into Moscow behind a rolling carpet bombing campaign.

I agree with their assessments.

We also have to agree to disagree on the worth of using a commercial flight sim to predict the unpredictable. In my opinion it is far more useful to base a theory on a well thought out three dimensional model than on a bunch of graphs and charts.

As to the assessment of the IL2 Sturmovik I defer to the Soviet side of the story on this plane. the build over 36000 of them and Stalin commented on there indispensable role numerous times.

Why would they make so many of them if they were as worthless as intimated in some of the earlier posts? Hitting the cockpit area while slamming around at 300 kph while being buffeted around and shot at yourself, while your target is dodging and weaving, was not so easy.

Try it for yourself in the "easy" IL2 Sturmovik 1946 flight simulator on the PC.
 
As to the assessment of the IL2 Sturmovik I defer to the Soviet side of the story on this plane. the build over 36000 of them and Stalin commented on there indispensable role numerous times.

Why would they make so many of them if they were as worthless as intimated in some of the earlier posts? Hitting the cockpit area while slamming around at 300 kph while being buffeted around and shot at yourself, while your target is dodging and weaving, was not so easy.
They built them as ground attack. The 'worthless' comments were for their role as fighter planes.

They could fly off just about any strip, even mud, and were great at ground attack. Both of which abilities were vital to the soviets. That doesn't make them Spitfires or Mustangs. Different plane, different role.
 

CalBear

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The Il-2 was not worthless, and do not recall anyone in the thread saying it was useless.

It was, however, a single dimensional weapon, greatly limiting its utility. The Typhoon, P-47, and P-51 (and might as well toss in the Corsair here) were accomplished ground attack aircraft yet they were also exceptional fighters, as good, if not better than any piston engine fighter of the war.

The Soviets would not be defeated in weeks. They would, however, be defeated decisively and totally, due in large part to the crushing impact of heavy and super-heavy bombers used in tactical roles against supply lines, command and control nodes and artillery parks. Soviet doctrine called for, and used, huge artillery parks, sometimes totally over 1,000 total guns of differing calibers. That sort of concentration is a perfect target for WW II era high level bombing since it covers a couple square miles and is simply chock full of things that will react to bombs with secondary detonations and features large number of troops and even draft animals who can be scythed down by shrapnel.

In conducting these attacks the Western Bombers would have, in addition to the already excellent P-51 and late model Spitfire, several different operational jets, notably the P(F)-80 which had the range to escort as far east as Minsk with use of drop tanks. The first Soviet jets, are a full year in the future and do not match the Shooting Star, the Meteor F.3, or Vampire in performance even when they do appear (by which time the U.S. has the F-84 in service (with the F-86 in advanced flight testing by late 1947 while the RAF had advanced to the F.4 and was about to get the F.8 into service) Without the RR Nene being gifted to the Soviets, there won't be a MiG-15, at least not with the performance of OTL's aircraft.

The Red Army might, might, even get to and slightly past, the Rhine before its supply line was snapped by the bombers. It would have been a massive battle, both in the air and on the ground, but it would have ended with a Western Allied "victory", if one can consider such a bloodletting to no good purpose to have a winner.


I guess some of us have to agree to disagree on many points.

I still contend that the Soviets would have put up quite a fight and the war would not have been over in a matter of weeks with the USAAF decimating the Red Army.

I have a number of historical US Joint Chiefs of Staff studies. While they all start their plans in 1946 you can extrapolate a number of their conclusions to the end of 1945.

Not one predicts a cake walk into Moscow behind a rolling carpet bombing campaign.

I agree with their assessments.

We also have to agree to disagree on the worth of using a commercial flight sim to predict the unpredictable. In my opinion it is far more useful to base a theory on a well thought out three dimensional model than on a bunch of graphs and charts.

As to the assessment of the IL2 Sturmovik I defer to the Soviet side of the story on this plane. the build over 36000 of them and Stalin commented on there indispensable role numerous times.

Why would they make so many of them if they were as worthless as intimated in some of the earlier posts? Hitting the cockpit area while slamming around at 300 kph while being buffeted around and shot at yourself, while your target is dodging and weaving, was not so easy.

Try it for yourself in the "easy" IL2 Sturmovik 1946 flight simulator on the PC.
 

Caspian

Banned
I've been doing some thinking about this scenario for the last few days, and so I started wondering how various countries would react to this war, which I'll outline as initially an American-Soviet war. This is just a quick preliminary.

I think the UK would be inevitably drawn into the war - they're too close, they have tons of troops in Germany, and they won't want to be seen to abandon their alliance with the US. I also think France would have no choice but to enter the war on the side of the Allies. Their territorial integrity would be threatened and their troops are in Germany. They also need American aid. I don't know what the French communists will do. I think Italy is in pretty much the same situation as France, though to a lesser degree. They also have significant communist partisans whose actions I can't predict. Belgium and the Netherlands are going to be drawn in.

Switzerland is going to stay neutral and heavily armed. Sweden will probably try to stay neutral - any idea how well the Soviets will advance in Scandanavia, if at all? I don't know about Spain, but I could see them sending troops to aid the Allies, while Portugal might be less likely.

I can't imagine Latin America will do all that much in this war, but I also have a severe deficit of knowledge on that region. I know Brazil and Mexico sent troops to help in the war, and I've heard that Cuba was planning to. If Brazil's troops are still in Italy, could we see them fighting the Soviets?

China will probably remain neutral. My reasoning is that China remains relatively weak, especially politically, and will not want to enter the war, while Stalin will not want to antagonize China and will order Mao to lay low. Correct me if my reasoning here is faulty.

About arming the defeated powers - rearming Germans will probably be a moot point, at least initially, as everyone seems to agree that the Soviets will push the Allies back, probably to the Rhine. This will be really, really bad for the Germans, but it might be a bit too early to realistically suggest rearmament. I can't see Japan being rearmed at that point.

Also, how would American forces in the Pacific react? We have an awful lot of strategic air forces in the region, and a ton of carriers that will have completely open seas, so I can't see Vladivostok being held if the US wants to take it, and Soviet railroads in the region are going to be devastated, dramatically damaging Soviet supply lines. Would we see an American amphibious operation in the Soviet far east, and what effect would it have?

Finally, would the US be forced to raise more combat divisions, in order to deal with the massive Soviet ground forces and occupy Germany and Japan at the same time as major combat operations are ongoing?
 

CalBear

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Interesting points about the "small" nations, they are generally ignored in these sorts of discussions.

The PTO isn't quite empty. The Japanese will have only been defeated in the last few weeks (if Japan is not still fighting, the date of the POD allows for either condition). If the Japanese haven't surrendered you would see them left to suffer from the blockade and bombing, probably from Okinawa by a reduced force of B-29s and some B-17 & B-2s along with the carrier force. Many of the available B-29s, especially any new construction, would be diverted to the ETO to deal with the new Soviet threat. The troops being gathered to invade Japan would instead be heading for the French shoreline to augment the Allied armies.

I've been doing some thinking about this scenario for the last few days, and so I started wondering how various countries would react to this war, which I'll outline as initially an American-Soviet war. This is just a quick preliminary.

I think the UK would be inevitably drawn into the war - they're too close, they have tons of troops in Germany, and they won't want to be seen to abandon their alliance with the US. I also think France would have no choice but to enter the war on the side of the Allies. Their territorial integrity would be threatened and their troops are in Germany. They also need American aid. I don't know what the French communists will do. I think Italy is in pretty much the same situation as France, though to a lesser degree. They also have significant communist partisans whose actions I can't predict. Belgium and the Netherlands are going to be drawn in.

Switzerland is going to stay neutral and heavily armed. Sweden will probably try to stay neutral - any idea how well the Soviets will advance in Scandanavia, if at all? I don't know about Spain, but I could see them sending troops to aid the Allies, while Portugal might be less likely.

I can't imagine Latin America will do all that much in this war, but I also have a severe deficit of knowledge on that region. I know Brazil and Mexico sent troops to help in the war, and I've heard that Cuba was planning to. If Brazil's troops are still in Italy, could we see them fighting the Soviets?

China will probably remain neutral. My reasoning is that China remains relatively weak, especially politically, and will not want to enter the war, while Stalin will not want to antagonize China and will order Mao to lay low. Correct me if my reasoning here is faulty.

About arming the defeated powers - rearming Germans will probably be a moot point, at least initially, as everyone seems to agree that the Soviets will push the Allies back, probably to the Rhine. This will be really, really bad for the Germans, but it might be a bit too early to realistically suggest rearmament. I can't see Japan being rearmed at that point.

Also, how would American forces in the Pacific react? We have an awful lot of strategic air forces in the region, and a ton of carriers that will have completely open seas, so I can't see Vladivostok being held if the US wants to take it, and Soviet railroads in the region are going to be devastated, dramatically damaging Soviet supply lines. Would we see an American amphibious operation in the Soviet far east, and what effect would it have?

Finally, would the US be forced to raise more combat divisions, in order to deal with the massive Soviet ground forces and occupy Germany and Japan at the same time as major combat operations are ongoing?
 
As usual, Calbear wins the thread:D


I'm brand new to these boards. I guess I didn't realize that this was a competition. Is that what this website is a debating society? If so then I will leave you all alone because that was not what I was looking for.


I had thought that this was a creative exercises in what might have been. All those unanswered questions of history. A place to exchange ideas on alternative history.

If that is the case I will continue. If not please let me know.


In my alternative history the Soviets anticipating the B29 and reverse engineer a captured KI-100. Their captured German scientists mount the Ruhrstahl X-4 wire guided missile on them.


On the ground the Red Army and it's heavy tanks and ground attack aircraft launch heavy attacks all along the front. The British Firefly and US M4A2s are hopelessly out matched by the new T-44 and IS 2 Soviet tanks. Neither side is able to gain air superiority and artillery duels determine the winner and loser on a tactical level.

If the US gains local superiority in these artillery duels the Soviet armor is stopped in it's tracks with heavy loses. The US forces are not able to exploit these local victories due to the inadequacy of their own armored units against the anti-tank guns of the Red Army.

The tale of the tape begins to tell and the sheer number of Soviet divisions and armored units begins to take it's toll on the Allied defenders.

Where the Soviets are able to gain local superiority break outs and classic pincher movements begin to form in three areas. The frontline begins to move at first slowly than with increasing speed towards the West.

The Allies desperately need an answer to the clearly superior Soviet armor. Their two mainstays of dominance over the Germans are negated. They no longer have total air superiority nor is artillery decisively on their side.

It takes the Allies a while to logistically an number of weeks to move the B29s to European theater. They decide to teach the Soviets a lesson and plan a massive raid as a demonstration and warning hoping to intimidate Stalin into rethinking his attack. They hold their Abomb trump card for a later


They are so confident in their Super Fortress that they send a 1000 plane raid deep into Soviet territory during which the last 500 miles is without fighter escort. It is a daylight raid.

The first daylight raid deep into Soviet territory is ambushed by 100 KI-100s each with 4 wire guided rockets. These rockets have a 50% or greater kill ratio


During this first 1000 plane raid 188 B29s are destroyed.


The bombing campaign is halted. A solution is desperately sought. The strategic bombing campaign is pivotal to the Allied war plans.

The Red Army is at full war strength with months of rest and resupplied. With over 200 divisions they push farther and farther West.

The Allied tactical airpower is held at bay as are the Soviet Sturmoviks. It's a tale of who has the best armored forces and it is a mismatch with the Soviets holding the upper hand. The Allies are unable to hold the line and by D+60 are digging in behind the Rhine.
 

Caspian

Banned
Interesting points about the "small" nations, they are generally ignored in these sorts of discussions.

The PTO isn't quite empty. The Japanese will have only been defeated in the last few weeks (if Japan is not still fighting, the date of the POD allows for either condition). If the Japanese haven't surrendered you would see them left to suffer from the blockade and bombing, probably from Okinawa by a reduced force of B-29s and some B-17 & B-2s along with the carrier force. Many of the available B-29s, especially any new construction, would be diverted to the ETO to deal with the new Soviet threat. The troops being gathered to invade Japan would instead be heading for the French shoreline to augment the Allied armies.

Given Japan's state at the end of the war, I'm guessing it wouldn't have been particularly effective to try and base B-29s on the Home Islands for use against the Soviets, even if that were desired. Assuming Japan has surrendered, though, using those planes to attack Soviet facilities in the East briefly before sending them over to Europe might be a good idea - bomb Vladivostok and the railroads a few times, then pack up and go to France? Maybe leave some of the less effective planes to continue relatively weaker attacks?
 
In my alternative history the Soviets anticipating the B29 and reverse engineer a captured KI-100. Their captured German scientists mount the Ruhrstahl X-4 wire guided missile on them.

If everything goes perfect they will be available by 1947 or something like that. You can't create a totally new production line faster than that. To combine experimental german equipment with soviet production and maintainance is a very, very bad idea. The potential for epic fails is huge. Not to mention the very low level of training that SU gave to their pilots, which would reduce the effectiveness of the missiles.

On the ground the Red Army and it's heavy tanks and ground attack aircraft launch heavy attacks all along the front. The British Firefly and US M4A2s are hopelessly out matched by the new T-44 and IS 2 Soviet tanks. Neither side is able to gain air superiority and artillery duels determine the winner and loser on a tactical level.

Since the US quickly gained air superiority in Korea 1950-53 and "western" air forces always have won against "eastern" air forces after 1945 I wonder why Hairog bases the air superiority on?

The main soviet tank would still be the T34. The US tank destroyers were useless on the offensive against the Germans, but in a defensive battle as this will be they will be very useful - especially due to the bad optics of the soviet tanks.

US artillery were the best artillery during WW2. No other country could deliver fire on target so quick and exactly. Yes, the Soviets cound mass enormous amounts of artillery - but that was very vernuble to conter-battery fire (or air strikes, as have already been mentioned). Not to mention that US artillery would have VT fuzes, which makes artillery far more effective.

The tale of the tape begins to tell and the sheer number of Soviet divisions and armored units begins to take it's toll on the Allied defenders.

Where the Soviets are able to gain local superiority break outs and classic pincher movements begin to form in three areas. The frontline begins to move at first slowly than with increasing speed towards the West.

The sheer number of soviets losses 1941-45 limited the number of divisions/soldiers the SU could attack with. SU took terrifying losses in many attacks against Germans 1941-43. These losses would repeat themselves during 1945.

The first weeks would probably contain some pincer movements, but quickly become impossible. The US-British air forces would repeat what they did against the Germans during the Ardennes. With the difference that it was during winter, against an enemy with fairly good AA.

Why would the Red Army move faster as they move away from their bases and got longer supply lines - supply lines that would be strafed by allied air forces all the time?

I predict a successful first week of offensive (largely depending on the level of surprise), but then a Red Army that is running out of steam in more than one way.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I'm brand new to these boards. I guess I didn't realize that this was a competition. Is that what this website is a debating society? If so then I will leave you all alone because that was not what I was looking for.

Well, we certainly don't sit around agreeing with each other all day, if that's what you mean.
 
Hey guys I'm no fan of the Soviets but your conclusions are just no fun.

Sorry I believe that what I've stated is a credible alternative. It could have happened. I really didn't think from reading all the posts I read that this was a debating society. A healthy discussion is no problem.

If we go with the Soviet military is worthless and they don't stand a chance supposition then the discussion is over. That's just no fun.

I don't believe that the army that defeated the greatest military power on earth at the time would roll over and play dead. That's my opinion. Take it or leave it but I am not spending any more time on military minutia.

If I wanted to debate the effectiveness of the VT fuse over what ever the Soviets had I wouldn't come to an Alternative History site.

Earling: "The thread hasn't moved on for years."

I guess Earling is right.

Now do you want to have some fun or talk about VT fuses?
 
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