Actually the probability of the A-Bomb rose to just about 100% in 1942 once the U.S. and UK agreed to pool resources and the Americans decided that money was, quite literally, no object (unlike the USSR or UK, or any other player, the U.S. could literally spend all the money required, it helps a lot if your country isn't hip deep in Panzer Divisions). The B-29 was also (or B-32), by 1942, a given. (As an aside, the B-29 program was
more expensive than Manhattan) Oppenheimer in existence or not, the Bomb project, at least the U-238 weapon, was going to happen once the Chicago pile went critical. If there is a person who was critical, and even he was replaceable, it would be General Groves.
Adding in a new person, however likely or unlikely, to Stalin's inner circle, with a result that the person gets unlimited funding (BTW: since every ruble this fellow spends is one fewer ruble to build Il-2 or T-34/85, or YaK-9, or Katyusha launchers, one has to wonder if the Soviets can still win the war), greatly alters the T/L, well beyond the scope of the OP or the POD, both of which rely on OTL as a starting point (the poor soul would also be more likely to get a 7.62 Tokarev headache in 1939 or early 1940 than a design bureau named after him). It would make, perhaps, for an interesting story in the Writer's Forum (God knows more than a couple of us have used POD at least as large to generate the proper starting point) but it isn't really according to Hoyle here. This is more of a "run what ya' brung" scenario than a "how do we build a Soviet AF capable of shredding the USAAF in 1945" situation. I understand your desire to meld the outcome to a desired result, but it is a game that can easily be played both ways, to the point where the original T/L is nothing but a memory.
As an example, there are two, fairly easy, changes (at least compared to creating a new, entirely different, aircraft and an individual who the paranoid Stalin gives unlimited power) in American construction history that will make the scenario change radically and to the point that they negate the changes you have in mind. The first is the B-36 gets support from the beginning of the project, not the series of delays in priority of the project that hit the aircraft for the first two years. You now have a fully functional 48,000 foot ceiling bomber that carries four times the payload of the B-29 available in large numbers. The other project is the B-45, which is now begun in early 1943 instead of late 1944. Everything to complete both projects exists without any need to create a new person who radically changes the American production of weapons during the war, with all the butterflies that come with that sort of change. That is just the Bombers, and the two easiest at that. There is also any number of interesting fighter designs the U.S. could have proceeded with quite easily, ranging from the F8B to the XF-88 & XF-90 which would create a circumstance that would massively increase the capacity of the USAAF.
This would, of course, push the discussion from alternate history to an alternate universe, although the changes are, even in total, far less than what your scenario requires (unlike the re-engineered and massively modified Ki-100 or the addition of German wire-guided missiles to Pe-8 bombers, all five of the aircraft I have mentioned were actually constructed and flew at least in prototype configuration).
I do not have any delusions about the engineeing prowess of the Stalin pruged Soviet Union. I do recognize a possible alternative history that has just a whiff of enough plausibility to pass the maybe meter without intervention from god or space aliens. That is the kind of thing I'm going to keep discussing.
Is my Soviet solution at all probable? Of course not. Was the invention of the V2 Rocket probable in 1939? . Was it probable that the Atomic bomb would be operational before the war ended, or that even if they did produce it that there would be a plane big enough to carry it? What if Oppenhimer was in a car accident or never was born or had a head injury at the age of 19 while playing football. That is the beauty of alternate history.
My scenario depends on just a few twists to history.
How about this. An up and coming party member catches Stalins eye at a party. He gains Stalin's confidence. This advisor is obsessed with the war in the air. He could not become a pilot because of a heart murmur. His only dream as a child was to fly. He lives and breaths anything that has to do with flight. Let's name this advisor Hairogski.
Hairogski feverishly studies all things air warfare related. Through Stalins spy network he gains all sorts of knowledge on allied bombers and their capabilities. He becomes convinced that airpower would be the key to any conflict with the Western powers. He knows every flight specification and nut and bolt of the B29 and any other allied plane being flown or on the drawing board.
He convinces Stalin that the Allied bomber force is a huge threat and that the crazy wack jobs Churchill and Patton are going to force a confrontation and the allied heavy bomber will be the major weapon that can defeat the Soviet Union in a straight up fight.
Stalin listens and gives Hairogski all the resources he needs.
Hairogski springs into action starting in 1944. He gathers all the former scientists, intellectuals etc. that are currently in prison of any race, creed or religion. He puts out the word that any mechanically tallented member of the soviet society or th military are to be transfered immediately to his control. As Germany intellectuals and scientist are captured they are turned over to him. All blue prints, plans, models, captured weapons, prototypes etc. are transfered immediately to his care. He scours the Soviet society for talented teenagers and gathers them all in secrete production facility behind the Urals. He is named the Technology Czar.
He is given an unlimited budget.
With this unlimited budget he has to take a handful of promising weapons from the prototype to production. Production with the best and most capable work force in the Soviet Union and possibly the world. He has unlimited power to chose any personnel he wants.
A minute would be all it would take. Plus the Pe-8s would be escorted by swarms of Soviet fighters who want nothing better than to draw the fighters away from their charges.
I believe earlier that you said the veteran US pilots would never be decoyed away from their duties. You can't have it both ways.
The fighter force with the PE-8s would be the same or greater than the escorting fighters. The fighter forces would initially be dead even of even tipped to the Soviet side in sheer numbers. The US fighters could not just zip over and shoot down the PE-8s at their leisure. They would have to fight ther way through them. In the mean time the KI-100s would be swarming the un-escorted bombers. Just one of the objectives that the Soviets wanted in the first place. The two volleys of missiles would have achieved their desired effect.
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What I said was that escorts wouldn't go chasing after fighters that were not attacking. I also said that the strike would have veterans in command. Veterans HATE the unusual, it means something bad is about to happen. You prevent the bad thing by eliminating the unusual.
How many fighters do you think the Soviets will have available? You can's have a thousand fighters to attack the bombers, another thousand to defend the Pe-8, and have any aircraft left to defend the rest of the USSR and Red Army. This is part of the problem with the scenario. Real life has lots of different things happening at the same time. That is why the USAAF, as an example, had different commands to perform different tasks, all occurring at the same time.[/quote]
Thank you for the information on Cobra. It was quite an extreme tactic.
Now we will see if Hairogski can figure out a counter strategy armed with the full knowledge of what the allies did during Operation Cobra in the summer of 1944. He has lots of time and a few captured German scientists, plans and prototypes at his disposal.
According to one of his newly captured scientists a very interesting prototype was successfully launched on March 8th, 1944.[/QUOTE]
It seems we are back to the video game. You don't have the resources you are discussing
Our Soviet friend will not have plans, prototypes, or scientists in hand until the Fall of Germany in May of 1945. It will be, at the earliest, June before he can get anything back to the USSR. He now has, at a maximum, six months to work his magic since the POD requires the war to start in 1945. It takes three months to retool a factory for the new model year cars, much less the sort of radical effort you are discussing.
You have your position, as do I. As I said, I fear we will need to agree to disagree on this since I can not see the scenario under discussion as being remotely plausible with the POD and conditions as set by the OP.