Without the rise of the Nazis, would the Weimar government have fallen to the anti-democratic monarchists instead?

Without a prominent Nazi party, would another far-right group have just done the same thing?


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Assuming that Hitler and his Nazis never rise to power is a common game. Yes, Hitler harnessed a unique blend of charisma and violence to get what he wanted, but the frustrations with democratic rule were something which grew even without his influence. Even during the infamous 1932 vote which gained Hitler the Chancellorship, several other political parties--including the Zentrum and the DNVP--were distrustful of democracy and craving a change in the system. This sympathy for non-democratic rule could have been harnessed by any capable politician, of which there were many.

I am currently working on a story idea wherein Hitler dies in the Beer Putsch and the Nazi Party never rises to prominence, but despite this the democracy comes under attack by far-right forces who seek to dismantle democracy, albeit to return to what existed before rather than creating a new form of despotism like National Socialism. As such, I am looking for opinions on what people think the most likely result of such an attack would be. Would they succeed? Would they just inspire another, more capable group? Or would the people be unwilling to accept such a change and revolt?
 
I think there are two realistic options in such a scenario:

Either the Weimar Republic muddles through the years until 1934 and then, after Hindenburg's death, elects a republican-democratic president who again more strongly promotes coalition building at the government level.

Or the military coups in 1933/1934 and unites the various right-wing forces in a situation like what happened in Austria at the same time with the Vaterländische Front. However, this state is not likely to last forever either.

A return to the monarchy is completely unrealistic: At that time, no one was a convinced monarchist anymore. The former monarchists already accepted a non-dynastic state and longed only for a strong executive that could eliminate parliament. The Hohenzollerns had discredited themselves for them by fleeing in 1918 and, moreover, had a dispute at the time because the crown prince's son entered into a marriage that was not in keeping with his status. And Wilhelm II had forbidden his son to restore the empire via the presidency (and a subsequent self-coup) because he considered this "not befitting of a gentleman."
 
I think there are two realistic options in such a scenario:

Either the Weimar Republic muddles through the years until 1934 and then, after Hindenburg's death, elects a republican-democratic president who again more strongly promotes coalition building at the government level.

Or the military coups in 1933/1934 and unites the various right-wing forces in a situation like what happened in Austria at the same time with the Vaterländische Front. However, this state is not likely to last forever either.

A return to the monarchy is completely unrealistic: At that time, no one was a convinced monarchist anymore. The former monarchists already accepted a non-dynastic state and longed only for a strong executive that could eliminate parliament. The Hohenzollerns had discredited themselves for them by fleeing in 1918 and, moreover, had a dispute at the time because the crown prince's son entered into a marriage that was not in keeping with his status. And Wilhelm II had forbidden his son to restore the empire via the presidency (and a subsequent self-coup) because he considered this "not befitting of a gentleman."
Those were essentially the core options that I had considered, too. Though in regards to the second one, I actually went a step further. I envisioned (as one of the two likely scenarios) the "old guard" like Hugenberg and von Papen actually taking a step to restore the Kaiser forcibly upon achieving dictatorial power, but winning immense unpopularity with the German people for pushing this through. Essentially the idea is that it sets Germany up for many years of internal struggle and takes them out of meddling in their neighbours for a decade or so as conflicts emerge between the people, the state, and the new Kaiser who may or may not be entirely into the ideas for Germany held by the arch-conservatives. I dislike stories where the Kaiser returns and somehow the German people DON'T erupt in protest.
 
Those were essentially the core options that I had considered, too. Though in regards to the second one, I actually went a step further. I envisioned (as one of the two likely scenarios) the "old guard" like Hugenberg and von Papen actually taking a step to restore the Kaiser forcibly upon achieving dictatorial power, but winning immense unpopularity with the German people for pushing this through. Essentially the idea is that it sets Germany up for many years of internal struggle and takes them out of meddling in their neighbours for a decade or so as conflicts emerge between the people, the state, and the new Kaiser who may or may not be entirely into the ideas for Germany held by the arch-conservatives. I dislike stories where the Kaiser returns and somehow the German people DON'T erupt in protest.
I did vote democracy would eventually win out, because there were strong democratic forces in Germany. Problem is those democratic forces considered themselves weaker than they actually were. That's IMO the reason they didn't protest so much when undemocratic events like the Preussenschlag happened pre 1933. There are also clues that in 1934 the economy would have improved.
 
I voted for different far right movement wins but I don't think that is a majority chance, just a plurality one. Obviously depending on the PoD the odds of different possibilities alters but with a Beer Hall Putsch PoD I think the odds of some sort of far to extreme right takeover are about 40% because of the long term negative effects of the hyperinflation which had fundamentally damaged support for the Weimar Republic and empowered the fringes.
 
I did vote democracy would eventually win out, because there were strong democratic forces in Germany. Problem is those democratic forces considered themselves weaker than they actually were. That's IMO the reason they didn't protest so much when undemocratic events like the Preussenschlag happened pre 1933. There are also clues that in 1934 the economy would have improved.
That's actually something I haven't heard before (the bit about them thinking themselves weaker than they were). Could you elaborate more?

At the moment, at least in regards to my story idea, I envisioned a technically restored imperial system but one where the democratic backbone refuses to give in and which causes a stalement between the centre and centre-right.
 
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That's actually something I haven't heard before (the bit about them thinking themselves weaker than they were). Could you elaborate more?

At the moment, at least in regards to my story idea, I envisioned a technically restored imperial system but one where the democratic backbone refuses to give in and which causes a stalement between the centre and centre-right.
That's my strong impression. Look at the Prussian Referendum of 1931, where all undemocratic forces united. The prussian government played it right here by making absolutely clear where it stood and that the choice was democracy or dictatorship. And the population said that they were not ready for that.
At national level the democratic forces have always felt they were dependent on the undemocratic forces on the right. They certainly were at occasions, but not at enough for the level of kowtowing at other occasions. The SDP should have said at a certain point at Hindenburg (and von Papen): "Stop trying to screw us by diluting the democratic system further and further, or the civil war you so fear will indeed come." Not that the SPD really would want a civil war, in which they would be doomed.

I also think a return to an imperial system is near impossible. Of the possible autocratic regimes that had the least popular support.
 

Crazy Boris

Banned
I think the Weimar government is going to fall sooner or later, but to who is completely up in the air. I don’t think the monarchists are particularly likely, the sentiment of “I sure do like crowns” doesn’t havve the same pull in the instability of the Weimar era where violent radicalism is on the rise as “X people are the cause of all your problems, vote for us and we’ll kill them for you”.

I’m leaning more towards the communists taking over, since in the absence of the Nazi party, I’m not sure if there’s any fascist group that would be able to pull off what they did.
 
I initially thought the military or some authoritarian right-wing party would have taken over absent the Nazis, but after reading the discussion I now lean towards Weimar muddling through. The economy was going to recover before long - one only has to look at the UK and Canada, which saw their economies mend despite doing far less to fight the Great Depression than the US did. That would bolster the forces fighting to keep the status quo and deprive radicals of oxygen. This does raise interesting questions about where things would go in Europe afterwards - I don't think Stalin would have been bold enough to get too aggressive with his neighbors absent Nazi Germany to hold the attention of the British and French. Perhaps Mussolini starts meddling in Yugoslavia eventually.
 
Assuming that Hitler and his Nazis never rise to power is a common game. Yes, Hitler harnessed a unique blend of charisma and violence to get what he wanted, but the frustrations with democratic rule were something which grew even without his influence. Even during the infamous 1932 vote which gained Hitler the Chancellorship, several other political parties--including the Zentrum and the DNVP--were distrustful of democracy and craving a change in the system. This sympathy for non-democratic rule could have been harnessed by any capable politician, of which there were many.

I am currently working on a story idea wherein Hitler dies in the Beer Putsch and the Nazi Party never rises to prominence, but despite this the democracy comes under attack by far-right forces who seek to dismantle democracy, albeit to return to what existed before rather than creating a new form of despotism like National Socialism. As such, I am looking for opinions on what people think the most likely result of such an attack would be. Would they succeed? Would they just inspire another, more capable group? Or would the people be unwilling to accept such a change and revolt?
The NSDAP achieved something which had been deemed impossible in German politics for several decades - a unification of the German right. Before and especially after 1918, everyone kept talking about how the right, constantly run over by the reformist and democratic forces, will be eaten alive unless it unites and presents a common platform - this was why the DNVP was founded in 1918 in the first place - but nobody succeeded.

You had several different currents which seemed entirely incompatible with one another. The traditional elitist Prussian Protestant constituency that was the backbone of the DkP before 1918; the interests of far-right Ruhr coal and steel business which pursued a platform of unabashed colonial expansionism and hardline free market policies and were represented by Hugenberg; the populist, "Bonapartist" national revolutionaries that were born out of the Navy League and sought to downplay sectarian differences in favor of an all-national militaristic dictatorship; the highly conservative and often Ultramontanist right-wing Catholic leadership that took control of Zentrum in the late 1920s; reactionary regionalists who despised all attempts at state centralization as seen in Bavaria and partially in Hanover; revanchist officers who were inspired by modern ideas of total war and wished for a militarized totalitarian dictatorship; modern extremists who arose from the radicalized middle class and despised the old aristocracy while also wishing for an authoritarian nationalist regime; former socialists turned to the nationalist camp for one reason or another; all forms of racialized nationalism and esotericism, so on and so forth.

The NSDAP was important because it was the first which managed to unite almost all of these (not the regionalists, of course) and was also the first right-wing political party which managed to transcend the class and religious barrier. That's something you never saw in the DNVP, which never managed to gather any significant support among Catholics, or the workers, or the urban electorate in general.

What I'm getting at is that without the NSDAP, the right probably can't win. It will be consumed by its own differences and conflicts and would have probably ultimately floundered. The DNVP, for example, detonated itself into several groups by 1930, well before the Nazis rose to become the strongest party and could siphon their support into the brown mass that eventually overtook Germany. Papen was a failure who couldn't hold a government together. Schleicher was a failure who couldn't hold a government together.

A military putsch is possible, but it also runs into the issue of who they would support. Schleicher wasn't much of a putschist, though to be fair he is so much of a "question mark with epaulettes" that people kinda guess what his actual goal was to this day.
 
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For information about the large range of the Weimar German right beyond the NSDAP, from apolitical aristocrats and old-fashioned military officers who just wanted power to the Conservative Revolution which "disliked Christianity, too, for Nietzschean reasons," to outright neopagans and National Bolsheviks of different origins who historically were far fewer in number than internet memes would make you think, check out the discussion in this thread:


It was all over the place, but very informative to me, and I guess this conclusion is as good as any:

You put a lot of effort into trying to combine the very boring, very old-regime aristocratic-political, yesterday's Junker-type DNVP with some crazy and potentially slightly intellectually stimulating lunatic fringe group, mix it together, throw it against the wall and see if some sort of dictatorship sticks.

I'm not saying it couldn't have been done, but it looks very different from OTL history.

What it would have taken would be less some colourful intellectual, and more of a really cunning, clever, scheming strategist, who was also charismatic and driven by political zeal. Which was what Hitler was. None of the other right-wing types possessed that combination. Combining it in different persons, well - if you want to write a TL, you might probably have to make it plausible on the personal level.
 
Assuming not to many butterflies until 1930 and Hindenburg still appointing Brüning as chancellor there is a good chance of getting the 2/3 majority to get him elected for a second term by the Reichstag.
Without the shame of being elected by the wrong people, Hindenburg would have not broken his promise that Brüning would be his last chancellor.
Brüning would have gotten at least the same deal to end reparations than Papen got, likely better.
With those out of the way and the schemes of hiden deficit spending that were well on the way before the Nazis took over, the economic recovery in 1933/34 could have easily been enough to stabilise the country. When Reichstag and presidential elections come around in 1934, democratic ( and halfway democratic) parties will be strong enough.
Acceleration of the crisis was a very tough economic policy, but it worked.
 
I would say 45% chance of a right wing take over from either a different nazist strain, strasserism or plain fascism. These right wingers might be willing to back a small level of monarchism as a compromise to help rally the country, think Italy's fascist relationship with the House of Savoy.

35% chance of commie take over. The commies never got over the fact their Spartacist uprising in 1919 got BTFO by the Freikorps and constantly tried again. Good chances of covert Stalinist help as well given how good a foothold in Germany would be for the USSR.

20% chance of a general collapse of the government into anarchy and declaration of a new republic after some strong chaos. May or may not involve UK and French intervention, might end up spiralling.

Weimar was never gonna last. Too many issues at the same time.
 
I mean IIRC, throughout much of Hindenburg’s presidency, wasn’t he operating as a de facto dictator? Weimar democracy was dead before Hitler was close to any power. If Hitler was killed in the war, people like Göring would rally behind the DNVP, the rightist socialists like Röhm and Goebbels make their own party, and the fringe esoteric types like Ludendorff and Hess go into one of the obscure Volkische parties. The last one I doubt anyone gets close to power as most Germans would be averse to open Paganism, but the DNVP most likely becomes the largest of the far-right parties in Germany,

The issue becomes the monarchists. Would Hugenberg be willing to trade off a return of the Kaiser in exchange for more votes? Or would the OTL Nazis in his ranks accept the return of the throne? I could see the latter happening more likely. Wilhelm II or a newly crowned Wilhelm III would be more constitutional than the old Kaiserreich, while the Chancellor takes over political and military affairs with an iron grip.

Anyways, back on topic. Yes, Weimar Democracy was pretty much destined to fail. Its Constitution was weak and political radicals were the norm since 1919. The right-wing would have a major advantage over the German left due to the fears of Soviet-styled communism and the Reichswehr heavily favoring the right over the left. If not the DNVP, then Hindenburg would probably declare martial law and hand things over to Schleicher or Papen as de facto dictator.
 

Typho

Banned
I am currently working on a story idea wherein Hitler dies in the Beer Putsch and the Nazi Party never rises to prominence, but despite this the democracy comes under attack by far-right forces who seek to dismantle democracy, albeit to return to what existed before rather than creating a new form of despotism like National Socialism. As such, I am looking for opinions on what people think the most likely result of such an attack would be. Would they succeed? Would they just inspire another, more capable group? Or would the people be unwilling to accept such a change and revolt?
Was the Kaiserreich far-right? It wasn't a dictatorship or a totalitarian state?
If saying the people who want to return to the previous KR system are far right, doesn't that make 1914 Germany far-right?
What would that make 1914 Russia, even futher right?
 
I would say 45% chance of a right wing take over from either a different nazist strain, strasserism or plain fascism. These right wingers might be willing to back a small level of monarchism as a compromise to help rally the country, think Italy's fascist relationship with the House of Savoy.

Anyways, back on topic. Yes, Weimar Democracy was pretty much destined to fail. Its Constitution was weak and political radicals were the norm since 1919. The right-wing would have a major advantage over the German left due to the fears of Soviet-styled communism and the Reichswehr heavily favoring the right over the left. If not the DNVP, then Hindenburg would probably declare martial law and hand things over to Schleicher or Papen as de facto dictator.

Was the Kaiserreich far-right? It wasn't a dictatorship or a totalitarian state?
If saying the people who want to return to the previous KR system are far right, doesn't that make 1914 Germany far-right?
What would that make 1914 Russia, even futher right?
What I'm getting at is that without the NSDAP, the right probably can't win. It will be consumed by its own differences and conflicts and would have probably ultimately floundered. The DNVP, for example, detonated itself into several groups by 1930, well before the Nazis rose to become the strongest party and could siphon their support into the brown mass that eventually overtook Germany. Papen was a failure who couldn't hold a government together. Schleicher was a failure who couldn't hold a government together.

Without the shame of being elected by the wrong people, Hindenburg would have not broken his promise that Brüning would be his last chancellor.
Brüning would have gotten at least the same deal to end reparations than Papen got, likely better.
With those out of the way and the schemes of hiden deficit spending that were well on the way before the Nazis took over, the economic recovery in 1933/34 could have easily been enough to stabilise the country. When Reichstag and presidential elections come around in 1934, democratic ( and halfway democratic) parties will be strong enough.
Acceleration of the crisis was a very tough economic policy, but it worked.
There seems to be an overall slant towards the idea that the democratic forces would eventually win out, but that the strength of the far-right and military would remain highly dangerous and might still have the ability to undo what progress is being made. This roughly lines up with what I was thinking, since, in the OTL 1932 elections, there was an anti-democratic slant in all the major right-wing parties, even the Zentrum under Ludwig Kaas.

Without a figure like Hitler, I could see Streichler's Chancellorship lasting longer or perhaps a figure like Hugenberg snatching power (I am honestly not sure which is more likely). Then all they have to do is stay in power until Hindenburg's death and the drama begins. As some have stated above, a monarchic restoration wasn't entirely out of the cards as a way to win over the more extreme groups, but the chance of said monarch being truly powerful or influential are naught. Additionally, any such restoration would win the immediate ire of the SPD, KPD, and the unsupportive moderates in the Zentrum and beyond.

So how does this hypothetical sound: Following the death of Hindenburg, the Chancellor (Hugenberg or Streichler) pushes to restore the ceremonial head of state role in the Kaiser, granting themselves the majority presidential powers to essentially mimic the dictatorial-monarchist pairing like in Italy alongside a mostly figurehead ruler. There is initial success but then comes a massive pushback by the democratic forces who refuse to allow themselves to be sidelined. Much of the military sides with the far-right government and gives them the ability to enact some initial changes, but protests and strikes begin to paralyse the nation, while the government is unable to properly handle them due to infighting on their own end about the exact shape that the new system will take. Germany is absolutely paralysed until the chosen new Kaiser, Louis Ferdinand (Wilhelm III had already sworn off his succession rights and only the most extreme idiots were willing to take Wilhelm II; Louis Ferdinand was hugely popular and quite liberal) voices his support for the democratic processes. This hurts the Chancellor's credibility but also prevents a full dictatorship, as many in the military respect the monarch enough to not try and defy him outright. In the long-run Germany remains a democracy, but spends most of the 1930's incredibly unstable with the democratic parties barely clinging to power until the right finally collapses from infighting.
 
how does this hypothetical sound: Following the death of Hindenburg, the Chancellor (Hugenberg or Streichler) pushes to restore the ceremonial head of state role in the Kaiser, granting themselves the majority presidential powers to essentially mimic the dictatorial-monarchist pairing like in Italy alongside a mostly figurehead ruler. There is initial success but then comes a massive pushback by the democratic forces who refuse to allow themselves to be sidelined. Much of the military sides with the far-right government and gives them the ability to enact some initial changes, but protests and strikes begin to paralyse the nation, while the government is unable to properly handle them due to infighting on their own end about the exact shape that the new system will take. Germany is absolutely paralysed until the chosen new Kaiser, Louis Ferdinand (Wilhelm III had already sworn off his succession rights and only the most extreme idiots were willing to take Wilhelm II; Louis Ferdinand was hugely popular and quite liberal) voices his support for the democratic processes. This hurts the Chancellor's credibility but also prevents a full dictatorship, as many in the military respect the monarch enough to not try and defy him outright. In the long-run Germany remains a democracy, but spends most of the 1930's incredibly unstable with the democratic parties barely clinging to power until the right finally collapses from infighting.
In my opinion neither Schleicher nor Hugenberg (if by some freak occurrence he *somehow* managed to take power - I find it effectively impossible) were interested in restoring the monarchy. Schleicher was a pragmatist who largely worked with the republican system and I don't really know of any proof that he held any interest in monarchist restoration. Hugenberg was a powermonger who was only interested in seizing control for himself, imo his commitment to monarchism was about as strong as Hitler's. He was, after all, affiliated with the far-right circles in WWI who considered overthrowing Wilhelm II or declaring him incapable in order to establish a nationalist military dictatorship.

Did Crown Prince Wilhelm renounce his succession rights? I know he was passed for his children Wilhelm IV and Louis-Ferdinand by the Oster Conspiracy plotters, but that was because he was seen as pro-Nazi, I think. 🤔
 
In my opinion neither Schleicher nor Hugenberg (if by some freak occurrence he *somehow* managed to take power - I find it effectively impossible) were interested in restoring the monarchy. Schleicher was a pragmatist who largely worked with the republican system and I don't really know of any proof that he held any interest in monarchist restoration. Hugenberg was a powermonger who was only interested in seizing control for himself, imo his commitment to monarchism was about as strong as Hitler's. He was, after all, affiliated with the far-right circles in WWI who considered overthrowing Wilhelm II or declaring him incapable in order to establish a nationalist military dictatorship.

Did Crown Prince Wilhelm renounce his succession rights? I know he was passed for his children Wilhelm IV and Louis-Ferdinand by the Oster Conspiracy plotters, but that was because he was seen as pro-Nazi, I think. 🤔
As far as I recall reading, Wilhelm III opted to marry a non-noble and so had to renounce his rights to the Prussian (and imperial) throne.

This is true regarding the military dictatorship. However, I also know that a lot of the anti-democratic factions, while not desiering any kind of autocratic monarch, still felt that it was an important backbone of Germany, not to mention the military which had a lot of sympathy. Hence why I imagined one of them restoring a technical monarch--not only would it allow them to absorb the Presidential power, it would also enshrine their legitimacy and create a loyal puppet monarch. The restoration of the monarch isn't something I consider a necessity for the story, but I personally feel that there was enough romanticisation for the old Empire--if not for the Kaiser himself--that they would wish to restore it on paper but just to provide a cover for their dictatorship.

However, if this truly feels completely implausible, I can strike it. A large point in this story is removing a revanchist Germany from major European power plays for an extra decade to shed more light on Italy and the "lesser" Authoritarian powers within Europe. The Kaiser is just an addition.
 
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As far as I recall reading, Wilhelm II opted to marry a non-noble and so had to renounce his rights to the Prussian (and imperial) throne.
That is Wilhelm IV, the Crown Prince's son. (Blame the Hohenzollerns for giving the same name to three generations of heirs, I guess.)
 
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