Without the rise of the Nazis, would the Weimar government have fallen to the anti-democratic monarchists instead?

[Crazy Boris]

Anyways, if there's a successful military coup, do you think Germany is going to go to war against Poland (after of course rearming sufficiently to launch such a war) to try to reacquire the pre-WWI German territory?

That's going to depend heavily on who exactly comes to power. That would definitely be a goal for a lot of potential German leaders, but it won't be the number one priority for a lot of them, and by the time they're able to act on it, the time to do so may have passed.

 

[Garrison]

You say that while assuming that someone must successfully unite the German right.

Who said unite? The Nazis didn't unite the right so why would any other party. I'm just suggesting some other party would fill their role. The kind of people who would gravitate to the Nazis will be drawn to some other party and the establishment will look for some other party to latch on to.

 

[Lalli]

Anyways, if there's a successful military coup, do you think Germany is going to go to war against Poland (after of course rearming sufficiently to launch such a war) to try to reacquire the pre-WWI German territory?

Possible but not likely. It of course depends about leadership of the military junta. But even that would think carefully how France and Britain would react even if it would be just war over Polish Corridor.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Almost certainly. But it will stay a limited war, because the German objective will be to secure a landbridge to East Prussia.

It won't be limited thus as for Poland it won't be different than losing Warsaw and with 2000 kilometers long Polish-German border and need to make deal with Soviet Union result would be same as in OTL September 1939.

 

[KaiserKatze]

Anyways, if there's a successful military coup, do you think Germany is going to go to war against Poland (after of course rearming sufficiently to launch such a war) to try to reacquire the pre-WWI German territory?

I imagine yes, but it wouldn't happen until the 1940's at the earliest. Additionally I don't see either a Conservative Weimar Government or a military dictatorship being so stupid as to attack directly. More likely I'd see them backing, say, Lithuania against Poland's demands so that their interference seems more legitimate. Plus they wouldn't be in a rush; there is room for growth in every direction.

Though without Hitler, I don't imagine the Anschluss happening on the same timeline. A world without the Nazis and with Germany more divided would see Austria more heavily invested into the Italian sphere of influence. While Germany is sorting out its internal issues, Italy would be making friends in the Balkans. Heck even Poland might be swayed to Italy's side; a Catholic league with plans to split Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia.

Another interesting question is France. Without WW2 and Hitler, would the Communists in France be as strong as they were, or maybe even stronger?

 

[Augenis]

Who said unite? The Nazis didn't unite the right so why would any other party.

The Nazis absorbed far right industrialists (Kirdorf, Thyssen) in spite of being economically populist; Protestant agrarian reactionaries (Artaman League) in spite of being led by Bavarians and Catholics; various esotericists and völkisch extremists in spite of remaining electable; Tirpitzian national revolutionaries (Trotha, Levetzow) in spite of also managing to absorb the arch-reactionaries and racial antisemites that they were opposed to (Paul Bang, Heinrich Claß, etc.), and so on.

The Nazis did (at least, I'd certainly claim that they did) unite the German right. It's why they managed to balloon into such enormous size in the 1930-1933 period. It's what made the Nazis such a unique specimen, because nobody had managed it before.

Yes, the Great Depression period would create a niche for a saviour, from whatever political direction, to draw in the disenfranchised, but considering just how much of a close call the Nazi takeover was OTL (it would take just a few wrong moves, even in 1932, for the Nazi rise to come crashing down, everything from party splits to alternate moves by the chancellors in power or simply some people (Schleicher) being less stupid), taking away the Hitler element and the Nazi big-tent element makes a far-right takeover far, far less likely, in my opinion. Hitler was genuinely a savvy political operator who managed to both be appealing to the masses and good at political maneuvering. Someone like, say, Strasser, who viewed the moderate right with far more naivete than Hitler, would have fallen for Schleicher's traps, for example.

 

[H.Flashman(VC)]

Not sure that is true, but psychologically there is a world of difference between losing a war on someone else's soil and losing a war on your own.

I can confirm how confusing this was to some with contemporary sources.

Left in Weimar Germany was splinter and odds with each other
KPD were loosing there member to other parties like
the Kommunistische Arbeiter-Partei Deutschlands (KAPD) or Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands (Opposition), generally abbreviated KPD(O)

The SPD were loosing voters since 1919 and went down to 18% in Reichstag in 1933
to make matter worst internal conflict let Separation
like in 1931 founded the Sozialistische Arbeiterpartei Deutschlands (SAPD).
next to the Unabhängige Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (USPD) founded 1915 in protest of WW1.
and Alte Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (ASPD) founded 1927.

I wouldn't really call it splintered. You're right about the great divide between KPD and SPD, which made a united left front impossible, but f.i. the USPD you mentioned stopped functioning as a separate party in the 20's and it's members in the end ended up in the KPD or SPD.
Another thing that is wrong about your story is that the SPD wasn't constantly losing voters since 1919. In fact they won considerable in both dec 1924 and 1928 raising the number of voters from 6 to 9 million.

The German Conservatives like Zentrum Partei, Bayerische Volkspartei, Christliche Volkspartei and Deutschnationale Volkspartei with others,
Manage to build coalition with same goal, they could get majority in Reichtags elections over SPD and KPD in 1933.

Premise is that Zentrum goes as right as it did after 1928 OTL, which i can see happening because of the Depression, but what i don't consider guaranteed, as it was certainly partly an incredible pragmatic reaction to the big succes of the NSDAP. The split between the BVP and Zentrum in 1918 was mostly because the BVP considered the rheinlandische Zentrum too progressive.

Yes, the Great Depression period would create a niche for a saviour, from whatever political direction, to draw in the disenfranchised, but considering just how much of a close call the Nazi takeover was OTL (it would take just a few wrong moves, even in 1932, for the Nazi rise to come crashing down, everything from party splits to alternate moves by the chancellors in power or simply some people (Schleicher) being less stupid), taking away the Hitler element and the Nazi big-tent element makes a far-right takeover far, far less likely, in my opinion. Hitler was genuinely a savvy political operator who managed to both be appealing to the masses and good at political maneuvering. Someone like, say, Strasser, who viewed the moderate right with far more naivete than Hitler, would have fallen for Schleicher's traps, for example.

Also the thought that Hitler could be 'handled' and thus the heavy underestimation. I also think the Reichtagsfire was a gift from heaven hell for the Nazi's

 

[Belschaft]

Hindenburg had effectively destroyed the Weimar democracy long before Hitler came to power, and the emergence of a right wing dictatorship in 1930's Germany is pretty much innevitable in the circumstances the country found itself in.

 

[Greg Grant]

A combination of barons, bayonets and blackshirts takes over.

Goering had about half dozen different "and that's how I met Hitler" myths, depending on his mood and the setting, but the one his earliest post-war serious biographers mention it happened when Goering went to a park in Munich to listen to 23 different far right parties holding a rally to decide which of them would have the supreme honor of having him join them. As he walked about, trying to get a feel for the things, one man caught his eye - it was the Austrian corporal haranguing the organizers for not letting him speak first and refusing to share the platform with the other parties, whom he called "bourgeois pirates." Hitler then took his ball and went home and Goering, intrigued by this display, inquired further.

There were 23 far-right parties there that day, of which only one were Nazis. Without the Nazis, those other 22 still hang about. But without Hitler and the Nazis, what would have happened is what happened to most of those 22, they allowed themselves to be absorbed into a right-wing umbrella organization which then fell apart because too many cooks, not enough stew. Something like that would have happened ITTL as well, but a single party or a narrow-enough yet broadly appealing coalition of blackshirts could have risen just as the Nazis did.

There is still the Great Depression. There are still no easy answers to Germany's troubles. And there is still the feeling parliamentary democracy is an alien thing forced upon the German Empire after its destruction. Democracy was not associated with peace and prosperity in post-WWI Germany, it was seen as a decadent thing foisted upon a shattered nation in its defeat, by quite a few in the electorate. The appeal of a strongman, whether wearing a Brown Shirt or fieldgrau would have been strong. I don't think monarchy, however, because the Kaiser was also be associated with a horrific defeat and downfall of a great nation.

Given the fear among a certain class of people about what is happening the Soviet Union and the threat of Communist and Social Democratic voters at home changing the way of German life, there would be money to be had to give to some general or some loon in a homemade uniform or both to restore German honor by chasing away the Weimar Criminals who signed the Shameful Peace.

I vote for another far-right party, in combination with barons and bayonets.

 

[Nivek]

The commies take over with no Hitler

 

[Lalli]

The commies take over with no Hitler

Not really sure. They were strong faction but not sure if strong enough to take power. Tried that already in 1919 and failed epically. If KPD manages to take majority at Reichtag, I doubt that army is going to accept that. So either military coup or civil war.

 

[oberdada]

The commies take over with no Hitler

That is a myth that has to die.

 

[DougM]

Why is this a myth? The Communist Party was not exactly n known in Germany before the Nazi’s came to power. There is a reason why they were chosen as scape goats by the Nazi’s for various things.
If the Communist party survives long enough they may get support from Russia and make a power grab.
Or if the Republic falls they may be the last party standing. Much like what happened in Russia itself.
I am mot saying the Communist are the inevitable power block to take over Germany if the Nazi’s don't, but I sure. don't think it is unlikely, much less impossible.

 

[tus3]

35% chance of commie take over. The commies never got over the fact their Spartacist uprising in 1919 got BTFO by the Freikorps and constantly tried again. Good chances of covert Stalinist help as well given how good a foothold in Germany would be for the USSR.

I do not see that happening. The Communists would be opposed by everybody from the SPD to the far-right lunatics, from moderate politicians to the military.
Should the KPD try to take over through armed rebellion, France and the UK would likely oppose them as well; they do not want both Russia and Germany being Communist and allied with each other.

Anyways, if there's a successful military coup, do you think Germany is going to go to war against Poland (after of course rearming sufficiently to launch such a war) to try to reacquire the pre-WWI German territory?

I doubt it.
The Nazis had spend so much on the military that they basically found themselves forced to invade and plunder Poland or their economy would collapse. An actually sane German dictatorship would likely not go that far in military deficit spending and would thus likely not feel confident enough in their military strength to simply invade Poland because of fear of France and Britain intervening.
Though they might still try to expand more 'diplomatically' like how the Nazis had gained the Sudetenland.

 

[Augenis]

The commies take over with no Hitler

The KPD doesn't stop shooting itself in the foot just because there's no Hitler.

Nor does it have the ability to get over the class barrier like the NSDAP had.

 

[TRH]

Why is this a myth? The Communist Party was not exactly n known in Germany before the Nazi’s came to power. There is a reason why they were chosen as scape goats by the Nazi’s for various things.

The Communist Party wasn't unknown in the United States despite its chances of taking over being so low that a snowball in hell would be offended by the comparison. The Nazis used them as scapegoats because they were hated and they were weak, same as all their other scapegoats.

 

[Lalli]

Why is this a myth? The Communist Party was not exactly n known in Germany before the Nazi’s came to power. There is a reason why they were chosen as scape goats by the Nazi’s for various things.
If the Communist party survives long enough they may get support from Russia and make a power grab.
Or if the Republic falls they may be the last party standing. Much like what happened in Russia itself.
I am mot saying the Communist are the inevitable power block to take over Germany if the Nazi’s don't, but I sure. don't think it is unlikely, much less impossible.

That something is existing not mean that it has any chances to take power. And KPD was generally hated by everybody else outside of the party and most loyal communist voters.

 

[KaiserKatze]

Thanks to everyone who replied to this post! The story based on this idea has now been posted here

 

[Michel Van]

Anyways, if there's a successful military coup, do you think Germany is going to go to war against Poland (after of course rearming sufficiently to launch such a war) to try to reacquire the pre-WWI German territory?

The priorities would something like that:

1. Build new government in Germany, eliminate political enemies (mostly communist)
2. Restore German territory in 1914 borders (means trouble with Belgium, France, Poland and Sudetenland.)
3. Abolish Treaty of Versailles
4. Revenge on France and England
5. Return of German Colonies in Reich.

You see this perfect recipe for second world war.
But that's depends how the new German Government deal with the situation.
I think they could with Chamberlain find peaceful solution for Sudetenland and other
Belgium is willing to sell Ostkantone to Germany if price is right. (They try it in 1920s, but France intervene)
Poland could give Danzig and Corridor to east Prussia in exchange free access to Baltic Sea and Protection against USSR.
On Colonies, i think that Chamberlain is willing to give Namibia back to Germany as gesture of Peace (between England and Germany)

Left Treaty of Versailles and France
Germany will Abolish Treaty of Versailles stop payment and rearm there Military.
France will intervene, try march into Rheinland and get bloody nose by Germany Army.
now this could could escalate into War between France and Germany (like one of 1870)
Here depends if England under Chamberlain & co remains neutral in this (so long Germany not take detour true Belgium).

 

[Xgentis]

I wonder about that, the economy was recovering so without the Nazis all could be possible. Democracy could still have a shot.