With no America and no lend lease could Germany win on the eastern front?
- Thread starter Darzin
- Start date
The Soviet Union was buying weapons from the US and receiving some Lend Lease prior to the attack on Pearl Harbour, the loose alliance between Germany and Japan had little to do with it.
LL from the US was not significant until 1943. Through the critical months of 1941 the USSR was paying cash for items from the US. Britain was also sending Mtl. after June 1941, but that was not directly part of the LL program.
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FillyofDelphi
Banned
Its possible: if the Americans decide that they need to retain their entire supply of "vital war material" like aluminum, rail stock, refined fuels, ect. for the war effort against the Japanese, the Soviets could start running into some bottlenecks which would limit their ability to rebuild vital aspects of their military-logistics machine. For example, American aluminum was vital for building up the Red Air Force, and copper and various other metals were imported in fairly large amounts which allowed the Soviet factories to turn out vehicle engines (and thereby functioning tanks/motorized forces). If the Soviets weren't able to purchase these, even with cash, the war might drag out long enough that the underlying Soviet "sinews of war" starts to break down from lack of raw materials, wear and tear on her logistics network, and simple lack of calories. Granted, this would resemble a "victory" more along the lines of the Western Front in WW I, with the Germans more "Not losing" rather than completely wiping out Soviet military capabilities and only slowly slogging forward.
Deleted member 1487
It was always significant. It just didn't reach the truly massive proportions that really made Soviet enormous offensives of 1943-45 possible until 1943. The 1941 amounts that were paid for were tiny in comparison and the October 1941 and on LL that was free was critical to filling in the critical gaps in Soviet production given the losses of 1941-42. http://www.o5m6.de/redarmy/ll_routes.php
The Soviets had halted the ill-prepared* Germany army short of Moscow by early 1942, Barbaross had failed its last stages. Beyond that, no matter how bad the Soviets are going to get it, the Germans are going to get it worse. Even without lend-lease the Soviets won't back down, but the Germans won't be able to break them, not with what they had left by the time of Stalingrad.
*with that i mean not equipped and not suspecting a long fight.
*with that i mean not equipped and not suspecting a long fight.
By no America do you mean America is not in the war? If so, then yes, Germany could most definitely win in the east. The massive amount of supplies and material from Lend-Lease allowed Soviet production to become as large as it did.
If Russia gets caught spying, say someone defects before Stalin can purge him and tells everything in order to save his life.
The Soviet Union would still win on the Eastern Front, the price would just be a lot higher with a far weaker and more resentful and paranoid Soviet Union post war.
The Soviet Union would still win on the Eastern Front, the price would just be a lot higher with a far weaker and more resentful and paranoid Soviet Union post war.
Doesn't make a lot of sense, they'll be fighting with the Commonwealth in the Pacific and presumably they'll still want the Soviets to enter at some point.
According to Harrison the USSR reached bankruptcy in May 1942 , and the only thing that allowed them to remain solvent was the on going 'value added' component of the LL program. It might be just like 1917 without LL.
Deleted member 1487
Except with worse starvation:
http://www.iupress.indiana.edu/product_info.php?products_id=807522
http://councilforeuropeanstudies.or...ning-in-the-soviet-union-during-world-war-ii/
Without LL food things get real ugly once the Kuban is lost.
BlondieBC
Banned
If USA is not in the war and does no LL, then the Nazi likely win. It is not just Lend Lease, even though that may be enough. It is the lack of the daytime bomber offensive forcing the Germans to redeploy large amounts of the Luftwaffe to counter. It is also things like no Torch. Likely not invasion of Italy anytime before 1944. The Germans/Italians might hold out in Italy for a long time.
BooNZ
Banned
Are the British receiving Lend Lease? If not, they are likely to tap out prior to Barbarossa.
I very much doubt that the UK will sign a peace treaty that legitimizes the National Socialist victory.
Maybe Taft became President and slammed the door shut on the communists: no cash-and-carry, no lend lease for the USSR. Japan attacks America somehow (Pearl Harbor still makes the most sense), but Germany never declares war on the USA. The USSR is going to be in a real pinch, and though the Russians will have hopefully moved their factories behind the Urals without the various materials, trucks, and food from America then the USSR will not be able to mount a good counteroffensive. If Stalin is overthrown then the Russians may opt for an armistice. If Stalin, or a Stalin like figure, retains control of the USSR then they will fight on in a lower tempo warfare. Germany reorganizes its positions in Eastern Europe and probably demobilizes a chunk of their army to help stabilize their economy.
My guess;
The American nuclear bomb project may be delayed up to a year later, and the British-Canadian project up to five years delayed. Taft's Pacific War will quarantine the Japanese Home Islands: Taft can either get a surrender with assurances for Hirohito, or they will begin firebombing until Operation Downfall or Hiroshima is greenlighted. Churchill is going to consider dropping chemical weapons on German cities. It may not need to get to that point though, as I expect Americans will eventually declare war against Germany due to their attacks on our merchant ships. America will begin building up supplies in Great Britain as it had in OTL for a long range bombing campaign and a continental invasion. With no very active Soviet front the Allies will probably try to force their way into Europe from multiple paths. The longer the National Socialists hold out against the Allies, the more likely a wide scale nuclear barrage. Maybe a 1947 time frame?
Maybe Taft became President and slammed the door shut on the communists: no cash-and-carry, no lend lease for the USSR. Japan attacks America somehow (Pearl Harbor still makes the most sense), but Germany never declares war on the USA. The USSR is going to be in a real pinch, and though the Russians will have hopefully moved their factories behind the Urals without the various materials, trucks, and food from America then the USSR will not be able to mount a good counteroffensive. If Stalin is overthrown then the Russians may opt for an armistice. If Stalin, or a Stalin like figure, retains control of the USSR then they will fight on in a lower tempo warfare. Germany reorganizes its positions in Eastern Europe and probably demobilizes a chunk of their army to help stabilize their economy.
My guess;
The American nuclear bomb project may be delayed up to a year later, and the British-Canadian project up to five years delayed. Taft's Pacific War will quarantine the Japanese Home Islands: Taft can either get a surrender with assurances for Hirohito, or they will begin firebombing until Operation Downfall or Hiroshima is greenlighted. Churchill is going to consider dropping chemical weapons on German cities. It may not need to get to that point though, as I expect Americans will eventually declare war against Germany due to their attacks on our merchant ships. America will begin building up supplies in Great Britain as it had in OTL for a long range bombing campaign and a continental invasion. With no very active Soviet front the Allies will probably try to force their way into Europe from multiple paths. The longer the National Socialists hold out against the Allies, the more likely a wide scale nuclear barrage. Maybe a 1947 time frame?
Darzin
Banned
Yes I'm thinking of a point of departure where Germany and Japan are not allies or are even hostile to each other so America is in the war but in the Pacific rather than the Atlantic.
I was thinking something like IOTL lend lease but then refocusing after Pearl Harbor.
Yeah this is why I specified the Eatern front. Sooner or later it's likley Germany will loose. See the AANW.
Respectfully, I disagree. With an isolationist as the American President, if Germany does not ally with Japan, and shows some restraint in the conduct of war against Britain then it opens up a way for Churchill to be replaced with a peace minded government.
How do you get the National Socialist to show some restraint? I don't know maybe some junior cook slips Adolf and Rudolf Hess some psilocybins in a salad. They hug it out and realize that ticking off the British isn't a winning strategy. :: shrug ::
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You do realise the 'Germany first' strategy by the US hadn't much to do with the Axis alliance or the DoW by Germany right? The US would support its ally the UK and USSR, therefor they would help against Germany. For them to not give LL to the USSR would mean a big government change, one that is hugely isolationist but also leaning towards Fascism or with the UK knocked out.
How about this:
-Japan takes Indochina but it goes pear shaped. Suddenly Japan is in a war with GB+Dominions, France and the Netherlands. Thus has no time for any silly holidays around Hawaii.
-Japan captures enough oil in the DEI and Borneo to at least not completely cripple their industry when the embargo hits.(Maybe with the extra naval assets they can move fast enough to capture the fields intact.)
-Russia runs out of Gold and Cash in beginning 1942 so US stops delivering.
Without the supplies from US:
-Spring 42 Russia starts starving to death.
-Things like electronics, optics, and ball bearings run out mid 42.(Also little things like welding rods and gaskets.)
-Any fighting more than 50 km away from a railhead can't be supplied for the crippling lack of trucks.
-The engine for the T-34 and KV-1 needs a massive redesign for lack of Aluminium. Production would probably have to stop around Jan 42.
-Wounded are less likely to return to the front as medicine runs out.
-The soviets start running out of locomotives Sept.42.
-During the winter of 42-43 all russian engines go belly up, due to lack of sub-zero lubricant.
Germans at the Urals end of 42.
-Japan takes Indochina but it goes pear shaped. Suddenly Japan is in a war with GB+Dominions, France and the Netherlands. Thus has no time for any silly holidays around Hawaii.
-Japan captures enough oil in the DEI and Borneo to at least not completely cripple their industry when the embargo hits.(Maybe with the extra naval assets they can move fast enough to capture the fields intact.)
-Russia runs out of Gold and Cash in beginning 1942 so US stops delivering.
Without the supplies from US:
-Spring 42 Russia starts starving to death.
-Things like electronics, optics, and ball bearings run out mid 42.(Also little things like welding rods and gaskets.)
-Any fighting more than 50 km away from a railhead can't be supplied for the crippling lack of trucks.
-The engine for the T-34 and KV-1 needs a massive redesign for lack of Aluminium. Production would probably have to stop around Jan 42.
-Wounded are less likely to return to the front as medicine runs out.
-The soviets start running out of locomotives Sept.42.
-During the winter of 42-43 all russian engines go belly up, due to lack of sub-zero lubricant.
Germans at the Urals end of 42.
Since most Wallies were anti Stalinist long before they were anti Hitler, they would gladly let commies die. From what I remember America was more anti Stalinist ,don't see them being allies...hell America had to be convinced to support Britain, most polls reported no interest in another European war.
If Germany stays supporting China in the 1930s and ignores Japan they would have American support before the war even begins.
If Germany stays supporting China in the 1930s and ignores Japan they would have American support before the war even begins.
See, thats what i don't get. Sure the transportations would be abysmal since they lacked trains and railroad and trucks. But the Soviets had their own reosurce production of aluminum, copper and tungsten(or whatever), so they don't actaully need that delivered by LL or Cash and Carry.
Why would the USSR go bankrupt and not be able to cash and carry trains and food into the country?
Plus, even if that all would fall apart people are forgetting Germany wasn't doing so well in the USSR either, their troops and equipment had basically the same problems. The winter of 1941/1942 literally froze the offensive to the core.
Why would the USSR go bankrupt and not be able to cash and carry trains and food into the country?
Plus, even if that all would fall apart people are forgetting Germany wasn't doing so well in the USSR either, their troops and equipment had basically the same problems. The winter of 1941/1942 literally froze the offensive to the core.