Mrstrategy
Banned
What if Wilhelm Marx wins the election of president of Germany 1925 would Germany still be nazi or have ww2?
Wilhelm Marx president of germany
- Thread starter Mrstrategy
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Two things, that come on my mind for that :
- The BVP might be convinced to go again with the Centre party, at least for this election. For most of the Weimar time they acted together (as CDU and CSU of today). For some reasons (does anybody know them ?) they were ... estranged in the mid twenties. Their about 1 million voters could have tipped the tide alone, though it could have been an even closer draw than OTL.
- but if Stresemann could have convinced/forced his party to support once again the 'Weimar Coalition' it could have added at least another million votes, IMO.
... dunno, too many factors and 'critical' situations to count in, I don't have the time to look deeper into atm.
Anyone other than Hindenburg who was pushing methuselah in age and senility could have dampened the hopes of the nazi party. Maybe stressman could have won, that would be the ideal solution.
I'm not as studied as I would like to be on Weimar in the late 20's so I will defer to others.
Hittler hit the jackpot on the perfect storm of bullshit to get everything in place. And no.. His rise to power was not destined or assured. Hindenburg and Von Papan are most to blame and the depression.
I'm not as studied as I would like to be on Weimar in the late 20's so I will defer to others.
Hittler hit the jackpot on the perfect storm of bullshit to get everything in place. And no.. His rise to power was not destined or assured. Hindenburg and Von Papan are most to blame and the depression.
Regardless of who is president we will still have the depression and the Treaty of Versailles issues that lead to the rise of Nazism. One question is does Marx, or a similar candidate win reelection in 1932. If so, the Nazi rise to power is much harder, short of them achieving a working majority in the Reichstag. They were able to do this in a few Lander, like Thuringia in 1932, but Germany-wide it would be tough for them.
Well, in the 1928 elections the NSDAP won only 12 seats. So if that Reichstag runs a full five years they are stuck at that level until 1933 - by which time they may have passed their peak.
IIRC they were estranged earlier than that as the BVP had a significantly more autonomist faction.
And at one point in 1932 the NSDAP was nearing bankruptcy. Then the Preussenschlag came.
Hmmm, a Reichspresident Marx might have been able to convince via his 'old bargaining ladd' Otto Braun (Marx getting the Reichspresidency for Braun becomming prussian minister-president) the SPD to accept the Brüning-written compromise on the unemployment insurance issue, that led to the demission of the cabinet Müller, that led to the autumn 1930 election, that led to the surprising rise of the NSDAP, becomming the second biggest faction in the Reichstag.
That way the cabinet Müller might have lasted at least sometimes longer.
Perkeo
Banned
The decision was 48,3 % Hindenburg vs. 45.3 % Marx, close enough to assume that Marx did have a chance of winning.
Now 1932: The OTL result of the second ballot was
Hindenburg 53,1 %
Hitler 36,8 %
Thälmann 10,2 %
So Marx wins if 8.1 % or less of OTL Hindenburg voters vote for Hitler instead - once again a managable task.
This means that all the emergency laws that worked against democracy IOTL will be used for it ITTL. There may be another Hitler coup, but this is also a battle that can be won - the officers don't like democracy, but they don't really like the SA either, a problem "fixed" in the OTL Night of the Long Knives.
So I think that with Marx winning in 1925 there is no Nazi dictatorship and no WWII.
Now 1932: The OTL result of the second ballot was
Hindenburg 53,1 %
Hitler 36,8 %
Thälmann 10,2 %
So Marx wins if 8.1 % or less of OTL Hindenburg voters vote for Hitler instead - once again a managable task.
This means that all the emergency laws that worked against democracy IOTL will be used for it ITTL. There may be another Hitler coup, but this is also a battle that can be won - the officers don't like democracy, but they don't really like the SA either, a problem "fixed" in the OTL Night of the Long Knives.
So I think that with Marx winning in 1925 there is no Nazi dictatorship and no WWII.
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Perkeo
Banned
The status of supreme commander of the armed forces and wide-ranging powers of emergency legislation:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_48_(Weimar_Constitution)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_48_(Weimar_Constitution)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_48_(Weimar_Constitution)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_48_(Weimar_Constitution)
That's just the ... constitutional funding for emergency laws to enable the goverment to act, like the famous/infamous Reichstag Fire Decree which came in 1933 with Hitler already in charge.
I can't remember of any such laws prior to Hitler taking office as chancellor, that delt NOT with purely economical reasons, like the emergency laws of the Brüning time (emergency laws of the mega-crisis-year 1923 aside).
I can't remember of any such laws prior to Hitler taking office as chancellor, that delt NOT with purely economical reasons, like the emergency laws of the Brüning time (emergency laws of the mega-crisis-year 1923 aside).
It does seem that Marx needs a big swing in order to get elected over Hindenburg. What would cause such a large swing? Or does a third candidate draw more votes from Hindenburg than Marx, allowing Marx to get in?
I have to say I don't expect Marx winning to make German politics any more stable. The Great Depression is still coming.
Also, I'd lay good odds on a large European war being started by Germany even if the Weimar government survives. Germany was determined to re-arm and re-join the Great Powers long before Hitler came along (leading to something of a small naval arms race just before the Great Depression took the funding away for everyone). Their was still-broad based political support for "correcting" the Polish border. There was still near-unanimous support for overturning Versailles.
As such, I think a Polish-German war is highly likely at some point from the late 30s on. That could draw the Soviet Union in somehow.
It is also reasonably likely that Franco-German tensions boil over at some point once both have managed to recover from the Depression somewhat. If France is similarly successful in her diplomacy as in OTL (and they do have the advantage of defending the status quo, even against a hostile Weimar Germany) they would have Britain in their corner.
Obviously, a war started by Weimar Germany would be very different from OTL's WW2 and may well not become a general war (for example, I don't think a Weimar Germany would try to pick on the Czechoslovaks, which changes things in a big way). But perhaps not as different as people generally think. The German army would still be the German army.
fasquardon
I don't see any further candidate on the 2nd ballot than the three aleady there, Hindenburg, Marx and Thälmann.
The swing needed wasn't so large, just about 2% of the voters, about 700k to 800k to get even though a very close win for Marx.
- The BVP option I've mentioned already above, admitted : difficult due to 'strained relations' between the two sisters Center and BVP. But maybe a horse-trading could have helped. The ministry for Postal Affairs they got already. Bavaria in that time had always issues with the Reich regarding payments from the Post to Bavaria. Maybe some additional 'rights' for Bavaria in that respect. As an addition maybe the Ministry for nutrition and agriculture, which was 'free' (of a party-member minister) at that moment. Should be interesting for mainly agrarian Bavaria.
- The DVP option ... I skip after having read this link provided by @David T . But this also showed me the possibility of
- A DDP-option. The DDP might be pisssed enough by the rejection of 'their' candidate Otto Geßler to be convinced to run again with the democrats, the 'old Weimer coalition'. OTL they - the party officials - finally went with Hindenburg.
- Maybe a combination of the BVP and DDP options
EDIT : My source for all these numbers : http://www.gonschior.de/weimar/Deutschland/Praesidenten.html
EDIT 2 : I have to correct myself. DDP is NOT an option for the second ballot. In the link mentioned I hit the wrong site due to only partial visibility. The Geßler discussion was about the First ballot. In the second the DDP already supported Marx.
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Hmm. Very interesting...
What do you think could convince the DDP to support Marx?
fasquardon
Due to my edit above :
Therefore only the BVP-option left, from what I can see.
And/or some DVP 'dissidents' campaigning for Marx, supported/encouraged secretly by Stresemann, who for foreign policy reasons was veery unhappy with Hindenburg. That way 'drawing' some votes away from Hindenburg.
Therefore only the BVP-option left, from what I can see.
And/or some DVP 'dissidents' campaigning for Marx, supported/encouraged secretly by Stresemann, who for foreign policy reasons was veery unhappy with Hindenburg. That way 'drawing' some votes away from Hindenburg.