Maybe have a PoD far enough back that a united Italy forms as a result of the war in question with France and Austria using Lombardy and Venetia as their proxy battlefield?
WI: WWI has Germany, UK, and Russia on same side
- Thread starter TimTurner
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Maybe have a PoD far enough back that a united Italy forms as a result of the war in question with France and Austria using Lombardy and Venetia as their proxy battlefield?
This basically requires some sort of Napoleonic-era power balance, where France + Spain feel comfortable taking on the entire world. So you have to avert French demographic collapse, as someone already said. Rework the 1800's so there's never a British-American alliance and the French and Americans remain united. Somehow keep Spain going strong - perhaps Latin America is a commonwealth-type nation (so our PoD is stretching further and further back now). Massively reduce Britain's power so they're not a global superpower and they're not contesting Asia with Russia. Keep Italy disunited - divided into French and Austrian spheres of influence.
The problem is that the great powers of Europe are always going to be jockeying to try to get on the "winning side" of any alliance so long as they think they can still satisfy their political goals to some degree. There's no sensible reason why Austria-Hungary would align with France in this scenario unless it thought it thought, and reasonably so, that France could sweep Germany out of the way and contest British naval dominance long enough to ensure a victory on the content. Otherwise, alliance with France against everyone else is an insane gamble. That's a pre-1800's type balance of power, unless, as stated above, we totally rework Spain and France into a dominant and united force whose military is guaranteed to sweep Germany on the continent. It requires trends set in motion centuries earlier to be handled completely differently somehow.
The problem is that the great powers of Europe are always going to be jockeying to try to get on the "winning side" of any alliance so long as they think they can still satisfy their political goals to some degree. There's no sensible reason why Austria-Hungary would align with France in this scenario unless it thought it thought, and reasonably so, that France could sweep Germany out of the way and contest British naval dominance long enough to ensure a victory on the content. Otherwise, alliance with France against everyone else is an insane gamble. That's a pre-1800's type balance of power, unless, as stated above, we totally rework Spain and France into a dominant and united force whose military is guaranteed to sweep Germany on the continent. It requires trends set in motion centuries earlier to be handled completely differently somehow.
*Napoleon accepts Frankfurt Proposals in late 1813, ending Napoleonic Wars with him still on the throne
*Spain makes peace via the Treaty of Valencay as per OTL but the British misinterpretation of the Frankfurt Proposal leniency causes British troops to linger in Spain
*British looting later blamed on 18th Hussars given their situation after the Battle of Vitoria, Ferdinand VII is psychologically broken after Napoleon fails to escape responsibility and the Spanish jewels stolen by Joseph Bonaparte are never recovered.
*Ferdinand repeals the Constitution of Cadiz in early 1814 and loses popular Basque support as their autonomy is lost in favor of a more central absolute monarchy, the popular reaction against him furthers his depression.
*Carlos V of Bourbon (he has the latter added to avoid confusion with the more famous ancestor) takes over as regent in 1814 and full king on his brother's 'mysterious' death in 1815, many theories somehow involve 'the French'. Carlos is more pragmatic and feels abandoned by his former English allies while but Spain avoids the Carlist Wars altogether.
*Carlos takes a more direct but less firm hand in those areas of South and Central America still under Spanish control while advocating for peace, he retains OTL Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru, Uruguay, and retaking Argentina by an invasion of Buenos Aires. Paraguay remains independent as a border state and becomes a hotbed of activity for pro-independence movements throughout South America (This leads to Carlos and Pedro of Brazil isolating the province and its return to Spain via the Treaty of Lisbon in 1844). Chile is brought back into the hegemony with a treaty respecting 'autonomy' but realistically is made part of the renewed Viceroy of La Plata. Each colony is given more autonomy under local control but answers to a royal governor and royal council located on the shores of Lake Titicaca. Interestingly, Carlos opts to attract more European settlers here during this time, especially in areas controlled by his supporters in Spain and other Catholic countries.
*Mexico, Central America, and the rest of Gran Colombia are allowed to leave but close economic ties to Spain itself emerge over the next decade.
*Carlos stands aside as the Liberal Wars in Portugal rip the country apart then moves his own forces in to take command of Portugal itself in 1835. Decried by much of Europe, the unpopular monarchs of both sides are unable to rally much against Carlos outside of Porto which finally falls entirely in 1836. Brazil sanctions the country until its own Treaty less than a decade later, fears of civil war broil to the surface but Carlos squashes any potential organized opposition in the Peninsula early. Portugal's colonies also come under Spanish control, but Carlos is careful to actually listen to his Portuguese part of the Cortes.
*Spain makes peace via the Treaty of Valencay as per OTL but the British misinterpretation of the Frankfurt Proposal leniency causes British troops to linger in Spain
*British looting later blamed on 18th Hussars given their situation after the Battle of Vitoria, Ferdinand VII is psychologically broken after Napoleon fails to escape responsibility and the Spanish jewels stolen by Joseph Bonaparte are never recovered.
*Ferdinand repeals the Constitution of Cadiz in early 1814 and loses popular Basque support as their autonomy is lost in favor of a more central absolute monarchy, the popular reaction against him furthers his depression.
*Carlos V of Bourbon (he has the latter added to avoid confusion with the more famous ancestor) takes over as regent in 1814 and full king on his brother's 'mysterious' death in 1815, many theories somehow involve 'the French'. Carlos is more pragmatic and feels abandoned by his former English allies while but Spain avoids the Carlist Wars altogether.
*Carlos takes a more direct but less firm hand in those areas of South and Central America still under Spanish control while advocating for peace, he retains OTL Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru, Uruguay, and retaking Argentina by an invasion of Buenos Aires. Paraguay remains independent as a border state and becomes a hotbed of activity for pro-independence movements throughout South America (This leads to Carlos and Pedro of Brazil isolating the province and its return to Spain via the Treaty of Lisbon in 1844). Chile is brought back into the hegemony with a treaty respecting 'autonomy' but realistically is made part of the renewed Viceroy of La Plata. Each colony is given more autonomy under local control but answers to a royal governor and royal council located on the shores of Lake Titicaca. Interestingly, Carlos opts to attract more European settlers here during this time, especially in areas controlled by his supporters in Spain and other Catholic countries.
*Mexico, Central America, and the rest of Gran Colombia are allowed to leave but close economic ties to Spain itself emerge over the next decade.
*Carlos stands aside as the Liberal Wars in Portugal rip the country apart then moves his own forces in to take command of Portugal itself in 1835. Decried by much of Europe, the unpopular monarchs of both sides are unable to rally much against Carlos outside of Porto which finally falls entirely in 1836. Brazil sanctions the country until its own Treaty less than a decade later, fears of civil war broil to the surface but Carlos squashes any potential organized opposition in the Peninsula early. Portugal's colonies also come under Spanish control, but Carlos is careful to actually listen to his Portuguese part of the Cortes.
In favor of France, the posts above mine were discussing how it would be difficult for Italy to ally France and Austria Hungary as long as Italy had claims on both.
Nice and the Savoy would once more be part of an alliance treaty.
Italy joining Germany etc would be just like they were joining when the war was won.
There's a lot of issues with that, but the greatest is that neither France nor A-H would be willing to give what Italy could get by joining in the curbstomp. Trieste would be pretty hard to receive from A-H, and the same would go for Tunisia or Corsica from France. And all this for the low low price of getting curbstomped as well - I love Italy, but it's not going to save the Franco-Austrian alliance against that list of enemies.