WI: Vladimir Arutyunian assassinated George Bush?

[Gan]

On May 10th, 2005, Vladimir Arutyunian attempted to assassinate US President George Bush and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili with a hand grenade. The attempt failed when the grenade didn't detonate.

What if it had succeeded? What would happen in the aftermath?

 

[James G]

Say hello to the new boss.

 

[Forcon]

Say hello to the new boss.

I have never seen such an ominous grin before

 

[James G]

I have never seen such an ominous grin before

It's the eyes that do the most for me. Look at the other pictures on his Wikipedia page.

 

[Heliogabalus]

All it really says on Wikipedia about the assassin's motivations is that he was against American influence in Georgia and used to be a member of a pro-Russian party, so I'm not sure if that would have any effect. In general, Bush would likely be remembered more positively, as no one likes to insult assassinated leaders. I can't imagine President Cheney being popular in any way, shape, or form, though.

 

[El Speculador]

It would be very likely to raise US-Russia tensions, as his connection to a Pro-Russia party would quickly be considered a connection to Russia itself. Dick Cheney, if not going to war with Russia, would probably support more weapons going to everyone even remotely opposed to them. It is quite likely that the increase in tension would lead to international problems, and hinder Cheney's ability to win reelection. Sympathy from the assassination could help the republicans not lose congress in 2006, as it would be closer to the assassination. 2008 will probably go more or less as OTL, with Obama winning and democrats taking congress, possibly with a mandate to cool international relations.

 

[Heliogabalus]

It would definitely be bad for US-Russian relations, but I doubt America would go to war over a single Georgian who happened to be pro-Russian. This was also around the time that the Bush administration started suffering fallout from the Iraq War, which Cheney probably wouldn't be able to weather very well. Given his general negative public perception and his lack of support among the Religious Right, I'm not sure if he would even run for a second term.

 

[El Speculador]

It would definitely be bad for US-Russian relations, but I doubt America would go to war over a single Georgian who happened to be pro-Russian.

The incident itself will not start a war to be sure, however, it is possible that it could lead to more militarized boarders, which could set off a chain of escalations that eventually results in armed conflict. Not guaranteed by any stretch of the imagination, but a distinct possibility.

This was also around the time that the Bush administration started suffering fallout from the Iraq War, which Cheney probably wouldn't be able to weather very well. Given his general negative public perception and his lack of support among the Religious Right, I'm not sure if he would even run for a second term.

Very accurate, although him not running won't save the Republicans in 2008.

 

[Asp]

It would be very likely to raise US-Russia tensions, as his connection to a Pro-Russia party would quickly be considered a connection to Russia itself. Dick Cheney, if not going to war with Russia, would probably support more weapons going to everyone even remotely opposed to them. It is quite likely that the increase in tension would lead to international problems, and hinder Cheney's ability to win reelection. Sympathy from the assassination could help the republicans not lose congress in 2006, as it would be closer to the assassination. 2008 will probably go more or less as OTL, with Obama winning and democrats taking congress, possibly with a mandate to cool international relations.

Cheney wouldn't run for reelection. His health was terrible; it's frankly a medical miracle that he's alive today. He had already had four heart attacks and numerous procedures by the time of the POD. In OTL he wasn't trying particularly hard to be VP, Bush convinced him to because he was associated strongly with HW and he liked him.

 

[thekingsguard]

George W Bush becomes the GOP version of JFK, a below average President who was killed at his peak, before the consequences of some of his policies would come to fruition.

The stress of the job of the VP came close to killing Cheyney in OTL. The promotion may be fatal, so who he appoints as VP will be critical.

One thing a President Cheyney might impact is that he was pro-LGBT rights. Maybe he can lurch the GOP on the issue a bit ahead of schedule.

Jeb Bush likely runs in 2012, and maybe even wins due to sympathy over Dubya.

 

[Queeney]

Incidentally, I made a DBWI thread about this a while ago!

 

[Sevarics]

George W Bush becomes the GOP version of JFK, a below average President who was killed at his peak, before the consequences of some of his policies would come to fruition.

The stress of the job of the VP came close to killing Cheyney in OTL. The promotion may be fatal, so who he appoints as VP will be critical.

One thing a President Cheyney might impact is that he was pro-LGBT rights. Maybe he can lurch the GOP on the issue a bit ahead of schedule.

Jeb Bush likely runs in 2012, and maybe even wins due to sympathy over Dubya.

Cheney McCain?

 

[thekingsguard]

Cheney McCain?

I am guessing either a compromise pick - like Powell or McCain - or a rising star - like George Allen.

 

[Blair]

There's a pretty good TL about this premise that I would recommend.

 

[Utahwriter15]

There's a pretty good TL about this premise that I would recommend.

Gonna second this. "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" is one of the best post-2000 TLs I've seen 'round here. Long story short, the assassination against Bush succeeds, leading to President Cheney. After a while, the US and Iran go to war under Cheney's watch, and the consequences are...something less than pretty around the globe. Anyone interested in this POD should check that TL out.

 

[Timmy811]

All it really says on Wikipedia about the assassin's motivations is that he was against American influence in Georgia and used to be a member of a pro-Russian party, so I'm not sure if that would have any effect. In general, Bush would likely be remembered more positively, as no one likes to insult assassinated leaders. I can't imagine President Cheney being popular in any way, shape, or form, though.

It was before Hurricane Katrina debacle and the Banking Collapse, so yeah, I think he'd be remembered a lot more positively.

 

[Andrew G Reese]

Odds are he would die within six months and Dennis Hastert would become POTUS.

 

[Heliogabalus]

Odds are he would die within six months and Dennis Hastert would become POTUS.

To be fair, he would probably find a vice president within those six months. But I would love to see a President Dennis Hastert timeline. That would make Watergate seem like nothing.