WI: Tupac Amaru II captures Cuzco, Spanish possessions in the Americas collapse decades earlier?

Tupac Amaru II was an indigenous noble and political leader who claimed to be descended from the last emperor of the Neo-Inca state, Tupac Amaru, who was captured and executed in 1572. The indigenous population in the colonies had long been oppressed, with conditions not exactly great. Tupac decided on rebellion and after attending a banquet in which the local governor was present, captured him and hanged him, after an unsuccessful escape attempt. Letters were written to several Spaniards and kuracas, who witnessed the execution. Tupac went on to raise a large army, but he failed to link up with the Aymara rebels, failed to instill discipline in his troops after Sangarara, alienating almost all criollos, and failed to seize on an opportunity to seize Cuzco before the Spanish reinforced it. He was eventually caught and executed, though the rebellion would continue some time after. What if he had been able to instill stricter discipline, and captured Cuzco, starting a chain-reaction of events that leads to a Spanish withdrawal from Peru, as well as boosting the morale of other concurrent movements in the Spanish Americas at the time? If the revolt starts draining Spanish manpower, then there is a chance for more rebellions to sprout up, perhaps from the elite of Buenos Aires, discontented from the Bourbon reforms? It would also allow the revolt of the Comuneros in New Granada to succeed as well. Furthermore, it's not impossible that Tupac had heard of the cause of the Americans and some of the ideals of the Enlightenment, considering how radical it appeared at the time. He may also have been hinging on some support from the British, which has the potential to drastically increase if Tupac can gain access to the coast, and the two powers of Spain and Britain had been at war concerning the former's support of the American rebels, so the motivation is there. That would be the height of irony, Spain supporting a war that started because of taxes now having to deal with a rebellion motivated by taxes supported by the nation that had it's own rebels that it had to fight a war against. Anyway, this post has been far too long, but I await your thoughts.
 
After following his wife's advice and capturing Cusco instead of going into the countryside, Túpac Amaru's next move should be for him to go south (leaving a big enough garrison to protect Cusco from Spanish counterattacks of course) and link up with Túpac Katari, another indigenous rebel leader, who had at that point raised a big army and was besieging La Paz. This needs to be done ASAP, since Katari was a hardcore nativist who would never accept cooperation with criollos who could otherwise be receptive to the rebel message.

Once La Paz is captured and Katari sidelined, the rebels at this point would hopefully have control of the entire Altiplano and be able to spend some time organizing their leadership and training their troops properly, which could help keep the looting under control.

If everything goes right for the rebels and wrong for the Spanish, expect the former to spread throughout the Andes like wildfire. Lima would be in serious danger, while places like Santiago and Tucumán would likely be captured as well.
 
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this premise fails because the man didnt want independance or to kick the spanish out the general rebellion was against the Lima financial bourgeoisie (which for centuries controled many things via stric monoplies and acted like fuedal land lords in the city ) and not against the Spanish crown, the latter for the most part was ignorat of the things that occured here but did give permision and where for the vicerroys making the place dependant (this is why i call the spanish empire or really the vicerroyalty a helicopter as well as an abusive parent) it did not aim towards independence, but rather to repeal a system of unfair taxes and "bad ways of gaining wealth of the Viceroyalty.

at best i can see the spanish making more reforms to deal with the issue if he does succeed and the spanish give up on trying to kill him,this could save the spanish empire as the king would know fully the decadent state the vicerroyalties where in and actually care to fix them .
 
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this premise fails because the man didnt want independance or to kick the spanish out the general rebellion was against the Lima financial bourgeoisie (which for centuries controled many things via stric monoplies and acted like fuedal land lords in the city ) and not against the Spanish crown, the latter for the most part was ignorat of the things that occured here but did give permision and where for the vicerroys making the place dependant (this is why i call the spanish empire or really the vicerroyalty a helicopter as well as an abusive parent) it did not aim towards independence, but rather to repeal a system of unfair taxes and "bad ways of gaining wealth of the Viceroyalty.

at best i can see the spanish making more reforms to deal with the issue if he does succeed and the spanish give up on trying to kill him,this could save the spanish empire as the king would know fully the decadent state the vicerroyalties where in and actually care to fix them .
The Mexican War of Independence also started with the cry of "long live the king, death to the bad government". Madrid would never give in to the rebels under any circumstances, pushing them to declare independence. Add some in some British meddling and voilà, a new Inca Empire that stretches from Quito to Santiago.
 
The Mexican War of Independence also started with the cry of "long live the king, death to the bad government". Madrid would never give in to the rebels under any circumstances, pushing them to declare independence. Add some in some British meddling and voilà, a new Inca Empire that stretches from Quito to Santiago.
peru was even more royalist than mexico most of the power elite where not pro indpendance why would they be? they benefited a lot from the spanish empire at the expense of everyone
as for madrid they can still make some sort reforms because its unlikely that the letter he sent to him got to him and even if he did he had more pressing matters assuming it does and it convices him this is why i say best case scenario what tupac wanted ie the fixing of the corrput system migth be undone if the king discovers just how bad the sittation got in peru of course tupac himself at best is most likely exiled (most likely killed) and charles makes actual referoms instead of crakcing down its a possibilty to avoid any further revolt.

a more realistic scenario is that he wins and the king sent a larger army to deal with them and then crushes them simply put peru got its indepdance after most of latin america and it took armies of the south and north to defeat the peruvians and this was with british support in the independance movements and even then it nearly failed misarably as late as 1825 where had things gone slightly diferent bolviar and his cavarly would have died on junin .

so yeah tupac has few chances and if he does win he is not going to conquer from quito to santigao tupac would face a lot of oppsostion from the royalist in lima and the whole of peru if he ever declared independance
 
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Peru became a royalist stronghold because of this rebellion. I wouldn't be surprised if the rebel army grew into a force of more than 100.000 men. The big challenges for the rebels are winning enough criollos over and capturing a port through which the British could send weapons and money to them. And sending soldiers overseas takes time, especially with the Royal Navy in the way.
 
Peru became a royalist stronghold because of this rebellion. I wouldn't be surprised if the rebel army grew into a force of more than 100.000 men. The big challenges for the rebels are winning enough criollos over and capturing a port through which the British could send weapons and money to them. And sending soldiers overseas takes time, especially with the Royal Navy in the way.
peru was already a loyalist stronghold before tupac amaru was not the first rebellion Juan santos atahualpa who actually wanted to restore inca rule tupac amaru marching down to the coast would be a big no no if he does he would have to take a port arica and ilo are the biggest ones but any spanish fleet from lima or valparaiso could take it he would also have to march from cuzco if he wants arica he would have to take Tacna if he wans ilo or take or by pass arequipa.
 
peru was already a loyalist stronghold before tupac amaru was not the first rebellion Juan santos atahualpa who actually wanted to restore inca rule tupac amaru marching down to the coast would be a big no no if he does he would have to take a port arica and ilo are the biggest ones but any spanish fleet from lima or valparaiso could take it he would also have to march from cuzco if he wants arica he would have to take Tacna if he wans ilo or take or by pass arequipa.
What's keeping him from doing exactly that? It's not like the Quechua and Aymara are strangers to hostile environments, considering they're from the Andes and the Altiplano. They would outnumber the defenders of these ports massively, and in their campaigns to places like Cusco, Puno and La Paz they likely get at least a few decent artillery pieces that could help them break through any fortifications.

And Juan Santos Atahualpa was a guerrilla fighter who, by the way, was never defeated, with the rebellion he led petering out after his death from natural causes. Túpac Amaru was an entirely different beast.
 
What's keeping him from doing exactly that? It's not like the Quechua and Aymara are strangers to hostile environments, considering they're from the Andes and the Altiplano. They would outnumber the defenders of these ports massively, and in their campaigns to places like Cusco, Puno and La Paz they likely get at least a few decent artillery pieces that could help them break through any fortifications.

And Juan Santos Atahualpa was a guerrilla fighter who, by the way, was never defeated, with the rebellion he led petering out after his death from natural causes. Túpac Amaru was an entirely different beast.
because he fled to the jungle somewhere the spanish would not follow him tupac amaru attacked areas where they could and worse yet he is marching to the coast an area where the the spanish would have an advantage as the spanish navy from lima or valparaiso (unless the royal navy comes) could quickly sent supplies to said defenders this is also not consdifering that they would have to either by pass some key cities or put them under siege both of which are not good for him since leaves him exposed and the other waste time and he would also have leave a garrison of men there
 
because he fled to the jungle somewhere the spanish would not follow him tupac amaru attacked areas where they could and worse yet he is marching to the coast an area where the the spanish would have an advantage as the spanish navy from lima or valparaiso (unless the royal navy comes) could quickly sent supplies to said defenders this is also not consdifering that they would have to either by pass some key cities or put them under siege both of which are not good for him since leaves him exposed and the other waste time and he would also have leave a garrison of men there
The Spanish navy was very overstretched by the early 1780s. They were busy fighting the British in the Caribbean and Gibraltar and, besides, there's the Comunero rebellion in Colombia distracting any potential reinforcements. Paraguay would probably rise up as well (they revolted twice in the 18th century), further diverting any royalist forces.

As for garrisons, the rebels have one hell of a lot more men to spare than the royalists had. Give them some half decent weapons and training and they could probably hold their positions until the main army arrived in case of a Spanish offensive.
 
The Spanish navy was very overstretched by the early 1780s. They were busy fighting the British in the Caribbean and Gibraltar and, besides, there's the Comunero rebellion in Colombia distracting any potential reinforcements. Paraguay would probably rise up as well (they revolted twice in the 18th century), further diverting any royalist forces.

As for garrisons, the rebels have one hell of a lot more men to spare than the royalists had. Give them some half decent weapons and training and they could probably hold their positions until the main army arrived in case of a Spanish offensive.
the spanish dont need to bring a fleet from spain to peru the port of callao and others have ships it migth not be overwheliming but its still signficant enougth to send supplies to the ports and reinforcments which means they could hold of specialy if tupac waste some time in taking tacna or arequipa and some crazy royalist hold him for at least some time a 1 week or two is already a lot and most of his force (the new ones that would form the 100 000) are not trianed and would those who are i doudt know the statergy of siege warfare
unless you say the bulk of them are trianed in which they would need time to do this and time is not on his side .
because of course numbers alone help you but as prove many times when said numbers are mostly normal people vs a proffesional army its a slaugther waiting to happen unless they go for guerrila warfare which is not the case.

the comunero revolt in the otl was crushed with them killing themsevs due the spanish agreeing (at first to their demands ) and later revolts being much smaller so no great attention would be need it unless the success of tupac amaru inspires them to do so
 
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I question the ability to take North Peru, but South Peru and "Upper Peru" (Bolivia) may be possible.

The Rio de la Platans considered making an Inca their monarch OTL, right? Might this "Kingdom of Cuzco" be able to conquer the Rio de la Plata?
 
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I question the ability to take North Peru, but South Peru and "Upper Peru" (Bolivia) may be possible.

The Rio de la Platans considered making an Inca their monarch OTL, right? Might this "Kingdom of Cuzco" be able to conquer the Rio de la Plata?
Unlikely, the place was too far away. Rio de la Plata would likely become a mess of warring caudillo statelets.

As for the rebels taking North Peru, who's to say that a fair number of the local natives wouldn't rise up on their own after hearing the news that Cusco and La Paz fell? While Lima would obviously never fall to such an internal uprising (the city would have to be taken from the outside), maybe a place such as, say, Cajamarca, could.
 
On a more regional note, I wonder how the Mapuche will react to the sudden reappearance of their ancient enemy.
The New Inca Empire would likely be so huge (assuming everything goes right for them of course) and have so many internal and external issues to deal with that they may leave the Mapuche alone.

Would be nice to have them be propped up by Cusco, but even if relations are friendly I don't think they would be that friendly.
 
The Spanish did few if any reforms to placate the Peruvian population. If anything, the Spanish went out of their way to ban the Quechua language, initially spread to a much wider area by Spanish missionaries than under the Inca, and expressions of native culture. If Tupac Amaru is successful, Peru would be under the control of an political class that isn't so hellbent on Europeanizing its own population of some sense of inferiority.


peru was even more royalist than mexico most of the power elite where not pro indpendance why would they be? they benefited a lot from the spanish empire at the expense of everyone
as for madrid they can still make some sort reforms because its unlikely that the letter he sent to him got to him and even if he did he had more pressing matters assuming it does and it convices him this is why i say best case scenario what tupac wanted ie the fixing of the corrput system migth be undone if the king discovers just how bad the sittation got in peru of course tupac himself at best is most likely exiled (most likely killed) and charles makes actual referoms instead of crakcing down its a possibilty to avoid any further revolt.

a more realistic scenario is that he wins and the king sent a larger army to deal with them and then crushes them simply put peru got its indepdance after most of latin america and it took armies of the south and north to defeat the peruvians and this was with british support in the independance movements and even then it nearly failed misarably as late as 1825 where had things gone slightly diferent bolviar and his cavarly would have died on junin .

so yeah tupac has few chances and if he does win he is not going to conquer from quito to santigao tupac would face a lot of oppsostion from the royalist in lima and the whole of peru if he ever declared independance
 
The Spanish did few if any reforms to placate the Peruvian population. If anything, the Spanish went out of their way to ban the Quechua language, initially spread to a much wider area by Spanish missionaries than under the Inca, and expressions of native culture. If Tupac Amaru is successful, Peru would be under the control of an political class that isn't so hellbent on Europeanizing its own population of some sense of inferiority.
that was only the case for the relgion and during the intitial conquest then they let the inca nobilty survive the church even made a quechua scrpit that was used by Inca Garcilaso de la Vega it was not after the revolts (because tupac amaru was not the only one) during the late 18th century since they cracked down in fear of more revolts the spanish had a system that gave no one not even the white spanish a say in their goverment so it was not discrimination in that regard .
the rebellion migth drag on for an insufrable long time that (even thougth unlikely) charles III listens to tupac amaru and finds out the truth about the viceroy of peru (not that he abused natives he wouldnt care) but all the corruption in the name of the king that would make him change things to avoid another revolt because the spanish colonies where horribly admistrated and tupac amamru (if he still stays with the original plans ) would be fine since that was his purpose reform the system not overthrow it.
 
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