WI: "Tsar" Šćepan Mali of Montenegro lived to an old age?

[Deleted member 97083]

Šćepan Mali was a "Tsar" of Montenegro from 1767-1773. As a doctor at a monastery, he was one day proclaimed to have been Tsar Peter III of Russia. Though not actually the Tsar, Montenegrins had an appreciation for the Russian Empire in the time of Ottoman domination and supported Šćepan Mali as the leader of Montenegro.

Tsar Šćepan subsequently fought off three invasions of Montenegro by the Ottomans, the Russians, and the Venetians, while attempting to modernize his army in the style of Peter the Great. In 1772, Šćepan was awarded Lieutenant-General status in the Russian Army by Catherine the Great. However he was assassinated in 1773.

What if Šćepan was not assassinated, continued his tsardom over Montenegro into old age, creating a small militarized state on the borders of the Habsburg and Ottoman Empires just in time for the French Revolutionary Wars?

 

[Halagaz]

Well, in OTL, Montenegro warred against Napoleon's France. One way Scepan (or his successor) could shake things up is by siding with France instead. He could then use the opportunity to have the Porte recognize the existence of Montenegro as a vassal state; and have Montenegro acquire a coastline (around Budva or the Bay of Catarro) a good ~80 years before it acquired one in OTL.
In the best case scenario, Scepan would be able to ride out Napoleon's downfall; preserve Montenegro's access to the sea and the recognition of Montenegro's vassal statehood. In the most undesirable case, Montenegro's gains and its very independence would be threatened by a vengeful Coalition and it might get annexed by Austria or something.

On the other hand, Scepan could choose to preserve (or conveniently return to) Montenegro's special relationship with Russia. In OTL, the Montenegrins (with their allies from Boka and elements of a Russian fleet) managed to give Napoleon's troops a bloody nose. In this scenario, the nose would be even bloodier; the Montenegrins might even take Ragusa from the French, but they might not necessarily be able to hold it.
Now, some bigger opportunities crop up with the progress of the Serbian Uprising. In OTL, the Serbian revolutionaries almost managed to link up with Montenegro, but were forced to pull back. Scepan's Montenegro might be strong enough to complete that link-up. If this happens, it means revolutionary Serbia is generally strengthened and given breathing room on one front; the Ottoman Empire is cut off from Bosnia; and most importantly, it means a Russian army can march down to the Adriatic sea and appear in Napoleon's "Illyrian Provinces" in Dalmatia...

So there could be some interesting consequences. Still, I think there's a limit to what Scepan can accomplish, no matter how competent he may have been. We should probably remember that Montenegro was super small at the time. It had, like, less than 10% of the territory of modern day Montenegro (which is not exactly a giant either).

 

[Alex Zetsu]

One Montenegro brigade is worth three French ones (unless the French are in a fort or personally led by Napoleon)