WI: *Thirty Years' War with Catholic Sweden?

[Alkahest]

Deciding to follow the advice to "write what you know", I have begun sketching on a TL where the POD is that Gustav Trolle, Archbishop of Uppsala, dies before Gustav Vasa becomes the king of Sweden. This would remove the main tension between the king and Rome, allowing Sweden to remain Catholic. (Gustav Vasa might of course make up another excuse to break with the Church and seize its assets, so I would also like your opinion on if my POD is sufficient to create such a major change.)

Now we skip forward to the *Thirty Years' War, assuming a similar conflict arises ITTL. What would be the effect of a Catholic Sweden on the outcome of that war? Could a Swedish-Polish union crush the Protestant German forces? What would happen to the Holy Roman Empire? Could the Habsburgs keep a firm grip on Europe? Since I am partial to both Sweden-Poland-wanks and Spainwanks I might be seeing the changes that I want to see, and I would very much like your educated opinions on the matter.

 

[Errnge]

Well, from what I know, Sweden was something of a power-house back then. I don't think Germany would fair well against such a powerful foe. The Holy Roman Empire might very well collapse, being divided between the Swedes, Poles, and Austrians, with a few independent states left over here and there.

However, I wonder what would happen if the Swedes ended up fighting the French! That would be one nasty battle!

 

[PoeFacedKilla]

Well, from what I know, Sweden was something of a power-house back then. I don't think Germany would fair well against such a powerful foe. The Holy Roman Empire might very well collapse, being divided between the Swedes, Poles, and Austrians, with a few independent states left over here and there.

However, I wonder what would happen if the Swedes ended up fighting the French! That would be one nasty battle!

Yes but I believe that the 30 years war made Sweden a powerhouse. Morale helped them a lot, fighting a sort of crusade against there Catholic counter parts.

 

[Codae]

Would Catholic Sweden make the attempted personal union with Poland workable?

 

[King Henry]

Would Catholic Sweden make the attempted personal union with Poland workable?

And at least as important, would a Catholic Sweden mean no Deluge?

 

[Alkahest]

Well, from what I know, Sweden was something of a power-house back then. I don't think Germany would fair well against such a powerful foe. The Holy Roman Empire might very well collapse, being divided between the Swedes, Poles, and Austrians, with a few independent states left over here and there.

And thus, the Swedish-Habsburgian hegemony began. I like it! Though I am not entirely sure why Sweden was as powerful, military speaking, as it was. It was an underpopulated, backwards place in the 17th century.

However, I wonder what would happen if the Swedes ended up fighting the French! That would be one nasty battle!

Well, there's a lot of German towns to pillage and plunder, so the Swedes could be pretty busy. But yeah, things don't look good for the French.

Yes but I believe that the 30 years war made Sweden a powerhouse. Morale helped them a lot, fighting a sort of crusade against there Catholic counter parts.

True, but crusades work against Protestants, too.

Would Catholic Sweden make the attempted personal union with Poland workable?

And at least as important, would a Catholic Sweden mean no Deluge?

A kind of Catholic Baltic Commonwealth is part of the plan I have, yes.

 

[Henriksson]

And thus, the Swedish-Habsburgian hegemony began. I like it! Though I am not entirely sure why Sweden was as powerful, military speaking, as it was. It was an underpopulated, backwards place in the 17th century.

I see five things:

Bureaucracy: Sweden got a headstart on expanding the influence of the crown. Not only that, but Sweden is a really extreme example of a State harnessing all of its resources towards their goal. They took such drastic measures as looting the charities for Stockholm's poor. I believe keeping Catholicism might clash a bit with this, as the riches of the church will be above taking advantage of.

Consensus: Related to the above, the great powers of the country generally could get along with each other, agreeing to sacrifices for a common goal, the greatest of which would be dominium mari balti. This is partially because of the very small nobility of Sweden. The Catholic church might throw a couple of wrenches into the wheel, I'm not sure.

Parasitism: I'd say it's generally accurate to describe Sweden as a parasitic state. During the 17th century, armed neutrality was impossible. Armies are grasshopper swarms of steel, and once they have formed, one must quickly put them in foreign countries, so they can sustain themselves cheaper through looting. Keeping large armies in one's own territory is like waging war against one's own country. Sweden was lucky in that her neighbours were so weak (see: Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth).

Copper: Falu copper mine supplied the vast majority of Europe's copper needs.

 

[Philip]

I don't think Germany would fair well against such a powerful foe. The Holy Roman Empire might very well collapse,

Why would this happen? Catholic Sweden would presumably intervene on behalf of the Emperor. If Sweden intervenes for the Protestants, we get OTL.

However, I wonder what would happen if the Swedes ended up fighting the French! That would be one nasty battle!

No, it wouldn't. The Swedish army at the time relied on French subsidies. France can defeat the Swedish army by simply turning off the payments.

Now we skip forward to the *Thirty Years' War, assuming a similar conflict arises ITTL. What would be the effect of a Catholic Sweden on the outcome of that war? Could a Swedish-Polish union crush the Protestant German forces?

If Sweden can remain in the field, it will be very bad for the Protestant Union. However, I doubt France will allow this to happen. France will not help Sweden if Sweden is strengthening the Habsburgs' position.

I think it more likely that Catholic Sweden would invade Lutheran Denmark once *Christian IV intervenes in the War. Or, perhaps the threat of a Swedish invasion keeps Denmark on the sidelines.

 

[von Adler]

Gustav wanted and needed the church's assets and land, and I doubt he would have stopped short of getting them. He needed to pay off the debts to Lübeck for cannons and ships during the war with Denmark, raise a permanent army (he faced lots of revolts early in his reign) and build many institutions in a country where the peasants were used to rising and burning the local tax collector's fort once every two years or so. Going protestant was one of the easiest ways to get all that church land.

 

[PoeFacedKilla]

I don't know if a catholic Sweden would be as powerful, but either way they just came out of 100 years of war with Denmark-Norway and no country comes out of 100 years of war weak.

But lets just say that they are at least close to as strong as IOTL, I think that the protestants will be crushed but then this brings up an interesting question.

Could this 30 years' war prevent the rise of Prussia and ultimately the German empire? I know Prussia was a protestant state and proud of it, but if its predecessor states never become fully protestant would the Kingdom of Prussia even form?

I don't think it would, but I've always like and been more interested in Austria than Prussia.

Maybe, without Prussia we would see a Großdeutsches Reich?