WI: The Soviet Operation Osoviakhim (their Operation Paperclip) included all German POWs?

[Deleted member 97083]

What if instead of returning most of the surviving German prisoners of war at the end of WW2, the Soviets forcibly recruited not just those with rocketry knowledge in Operation Osoviakhim, but almost all of the German POWs, aviation knowledge or not, to gain 2 million extra industrial workers?

Those with significant technical knowledge would be recruited into Soviet scientific testing centers like the conscripted rocket scientists and aerospace engineers, but for non-aviation related fields, too.

Those without much technical knowledge would be settled in planned cities along the Volga, or in Kazakhstan, for Soviet heavy industry. Alternatively they would be settled in collectives.

How would this affect the Soviet Union?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

German PoWs were not kept idle in work camps, as it was several memoirs I've come across from German PoWs in Russia describe the hard labor they were put to and the high mortality rate. So you'd have to seriously change Soviet policy and I'm not sure it would make much of a difference, plus am not sure that most PoWs had the requisite skills to work in industry or that the Soviets trusted them to do so.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_prisoners_of_war_in_the_Soviet_Union
As it was it is likely that the Red Army killed about 1 million Germans that are currently listed only as MIA in the last 6 months of the war that may have been capturable and used for labor in the East. They Soviets also used a lot of forced German civilian labor too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forced_labor_of_Germans_in_the_Soviet_Union

 

[Deleted member 97083]

German PoWs were not kept idle in work camps, as it was several memoirs I've come across from German PoWs in Russia describe the hard labor they were put to and the high mortality rate. So you'd have to seriously change Soviet policy and I'm not sure it would make much of a difference, plus am not sure that most PoWs had the requisite skills to work in industry or that the Soviets trusted them to do so.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_prisoners_of_war_in_the_Soviet_Union
As it was it is likely that the Red Army killed about 1 million Germans that are currently listed only as MIA in the last 6 months of the war that may have been capturable and used for labor in the East. They Soviets also used a lot of forced German civilian labor too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forced_labor_of_Germans_in_the_Soviet_Union

I know the Soviets sentenced forced labor on German POWs. My question is, what if they decided to free those POWs after the war and keep them as a closely watched, but theoretically equal to Russians (or non-Russian Soviets), force of scientists, tradesmen, laborers, and farmers? After the many casualties sustained by the USSR, 2 million extra people could have been a significant benefit.

 

[TheSpectacledCloth]

Stalin probably wouldn't permit it to go forth. Germany caused so much damage to the Soviet Union that it honestly be disrespectful to give leniency to Germans when establishing East Germany.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I know the Soviets sentenced forced labor on German POWs. My question is, what if they decided to free those POWs after the war and keep them as a closely watched, but theoretically equal to Russians (or non-Russian Soviets), force of scientists, tradesmen, laborers, and farmers? After the many casualties sustained by the USSR, 2 million extra people could have been a significant benefit.

So continue keeping them as forced labor? They wouldn't stay if truly freed.

 

[Deleted member 97083]

Stalin probably wouldn't permit it to go forth. Germany caused so much damage to the Soviet Union that it honestly be disrespectful to give leniency to Germans when establishing East Germany.

At least theoretically, that could be ignored.

And keeping Germans in the Soviet Union as basically state property, over a thousand miles away from their western comrades who they can't ever hope to meet again, seems a lot less lenient than simply repatriating them to East Germany.

Stalin, 1942:
"The foreign Press sometimes carries such twaddle as that the Red Army pursues the aim of exterminating the German people and destroying the German state. This, of course, is a stupid lie, and a senseless slander against the Red Army. The Red Army has not and cannot have such idiotic aims. The Red Army’s aim is to drive the German occupants from our country and liberate Soviet soil from the German-fascist invaders. It is very likely that the war for the liberation of Soviet soil will lead to the exile or destruction of Hitler’s clique. We would welcome such an outcome. But it would be ludicrous to identify Hitler’s clique with the German people, with the German state. The experience of history indicates that Hitlers come and go, but the German people and the German state remain.

The strength of the Red Army lies, finally, in the fact that it does not and cannot feel racial hatred for other peoples, including the German people; that it has been trained in the spirit of equality of all peoples and races, in the spirit of respect for the rights of other peoples. The Germans’ racial theory and the practice of racial hatred have caused all freedom-loving peoples to become enemies of fascist Germany. The theory of race equality in the U.S.S.R. and practice of respect for the rights of other peoples have caused all freedom-loving peoples to become the friends of the Soviet Union."

So continue keeping them as forced labor? They wouldn't stay if truly freed.

Well, "freed" to the extent that Kazakhs were free or Estonians were free in the Soviet Union, which is to say, not really that free.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Well, "freed" to the extent that Kazakhs were free or Estonians were free in the Soviet Union, which is to say, not really that free.

Right, so long term forced labor, which will piss off the west and make east Germany untenable economically.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

I recall reading that the Soviets did go out of their way to snag some German nuclear physcists and chemical weapons scientists, in addition to the rocket guys. I don't remember anything about them shanghaiing any aircraft engineers though.

 

[BooNZ]

Right, so long term forced labor, which will piss off the west and make east Germany untenable economically.

The idea of using the POWs as slaves was aired at Moscow in 1943. The originators of the proposal were the British. At Yalta it was decided that the men could be made to repair the damage Germany had caused to the Allies. They were to be a ‘work force’ and were to be retained for an indefinite period. It was at that moment that it became clear that their status would have to be changed to get round the Geneva Convention. PG 393
...
Another novelty was the leasing of prisoners to other powers. The Anglo-Americans handed over around a million German soldiers to the French to help rebuild their country. The Belgians were given 30,000 by the Americans and another 34,000 by the British, the Dutch had 10,000 and the Luxembourgeois 5,000.8 The Soviet Union gave about 80,000 Germans to the Poles, who hung on to some of them until as late as 1953. PG 394
...
At the Moscow Conference in 1947 it was decided that the Allies would send all prisoners home by the end of 1948. At that point the Soviets admitted to holding 890,532 (although the real figure might have been nearer to three million), the French 631,483; there were 435,295 in British hands, 300,000 in the Balkans, 54,000 in Belgium, 30,976 in American custody and 10,000 in Holland. PG 395

After the Reich - Giles MacDonogh

 

[Deleted member 97083]

The idea of using the POWs as slaves was aired at Moscow in 1943. The originators of the proposal were the British. At Yalta it was decided that the men could be made to repair the damage Germany had caused to the Allies. They were to be a ‘work force’ and were to be retained for an indefinite period. It was at that moment that it became clear that their status would have to be changed to get round the Geneva Convention. PG 393
...
Another novelty was the leasing of prisoners to other powers. The Anglo-Americans handed over around a million German soldiers to the French to help rebuild their country. The Belgians were given 30,000 by the Americans and another 34,000 by the British, the Dutch had 10,000 and the Luxembourgeois 5,000.8 The Soviet Union gave about 80,000 Germans to the Poles, who hung on to some of them until as late as 1953. PG 394
...
At the Moscow Conference in 1947 it was decided that the Allies would send all prisoners home by the end of 1948. At that point the Soviets admitted to holding 890,532 (although the real figure might have been nearer to three million), the French 631,483; there were 435,295 in British hands, 300,000 in the Balkans, 54,000 in Belgium, 30,976 in American custody and 10,000 in Holland. PG 395

After the Reich - Giles MacDonogh

So this basically happened already until 1948.

 

[BooNZ]

So this basically happened already until 1948.

I don't have the resource at hand, but I believe it mentioned almost a million former German combatants had still not been repatriated by the end of 1948 and some sources suggest 70,000 remained in the Soviet Union into the 1970s. I will check/confirm with source this evening.

 

[Deleted member 97083]

I don't have the resource at hand, but I believe it mentioned almost a million former German combatants had still not been repatriated by the end of 1948 and some sources suggest 70,000 remained in the Soviet Union into the 1970s. I will check/confirm with source this evening.

Searched it in Google Books. The same source says that the last known German prisoners were sent back from the Soviet Union in 1956, at Adenauer's behest. However, 1.5 million Germans total for all countries, were unaccounted for and remain "missing".

 

[BooNZ]

Searched it in Google Books. The same source says that the last known German prisoners were sent back from the Soviet Union in 1956, at Adenauer's behest. However, 1.5 million Germans total for all countries, were unaccounted for and remain "missing".

In the middle of 1948 the number of POWs yet to come home stood at one million. The return was agreed by the Western Allies, the Czechs and the Yugoslavs (who subsequently reneged on the deal), but not by the Russians and the Poles. That Christmas 1948 date decided the category of prisoner in the minds of the German public: a Spätheimkehrer (late homecomer) was released between 1949 and 1950. A Spätestheimkehrer (latest homecomer) returned between 1950 and 1956. In 1979 there were believed to be 72,000 prisoners still alive in – chiefly Russian – custody.

 

[Deleted member 97083]

In the middle of 1948 the number of POWs yet to come home stood at one million. The return was agreed by the Western Allies, the Czechs and the Yugoslavs (who subsequently reneged on the deal), but not by the Russians and the Poles. That Christmas 1948 date decided the category of prisoner in the minds of the German public: a Spätheimkehrer (late homecomer) was released between 1949 and 1950. A Spätestheimkehrer (latest homecomer) returned between 1950 and 1956. In 1979 there were believed to be 72,000 prisoners still alive in – chiefly Russian – custody.

Oh, I missed that. I was referring to these passages:

"A million and a half [Germans], however, never came home, giving rise to a number of stories of how they met their end." page 392

"It was Adenauer's visit to Moscow that finally brought home almost all the last survivors, at the end of 1956." page 395

 

[fasquardon]

The idea of using the POWs as slaves was aired at Moscow in 1943. The originators of the proposal were the British. At Yalta it was decided that the men could be made to repair the damage Germany had caused to the Allies. They were to be a ‘work force’ and were to be retained for an indefinite period. It was at that moment that it became clear that their status would have to be changed to get round the Geneva Convention. PG 393
...
Another novelty was the leasing of prisoners to other powers. The Anglo-Americans handed over around a million German soldiers to the French to help rebuild their country. The Belgians were given 30,000 by the Americans and another 34,000 by the British, the Dutch had 10,000 and the Luxembourgeois 5,000.8 The Soviet Union gave about 80,000 Germans to the Poles, who hung on to some of them until as late as 1953. PG 394
...
At the Moscow Conference in 1947 it was decided that the Allies would send all prisoners home by the end of 1948. At that point the Soviets admitted to holding 890,532 (although the real figure might have been nearer to three million), the French 631,483; there were 435,295 in British hands, 300,000 in the Balkans, 54,000 in Belgium, 30,976 in American custody and 10,000 in Holland. PG 395

After the Reich - Giles MacDonogh

In the middle of 1948 the number of POWs yet to come home stood at one million. The return was agreed by the Western Allies, the Czechs and the Yugoslavs (who subsequently reneged on the deal), but not by the Russians and the Poles. That Christmas 1948 date decided the category of prisoner in the minds of the German public: a Spätheimkehrer (late homecomer) was released between 1949 and 1950. A Spätestheimkehrer (latest homecomer) returned between 1950 and 1956. In 1979 there were believed to be 72,000 prisoners still alive in – chiefly Russian – custody.

Quotes like these really bring home how miserable WW2 really was.

I wonder how Germany would have done if less PoWs were repatriated (or if the PoWs were returned later).

fasquardon

 

[Jürgen]

I think the interesting part of this POD are to resettle the Germans not as unfree workers, but with the goal of making Soviet citizens out of them. We would likely need to slightly change how Stalin saw the world, and make a long term analyse.

In hindsight settling 2 million Germans mostly on the Russian-Kazakh border makes a lot of sense. USSR suffered under the loss of several million men, especially among the Russian population. The average German was in more skilled than the average Soviet citizen. The Germans far from their homeland would also be unlikely to be troublesome, and even if they were the army could be used on them without any public outcry. If they was all placed in Kazakhstan they would also push the Kazakh down to be only the third largest group in their own republic, but even if only half are settle there, it would lower Kazakhs to only 25% of the population.

 

[Deleted member 97083]

I think the interesting part of this POD are to resettle the Germans not as unfree workers, but with the goal of making Soviet citizens out of them. We would likely need to slightly change how Stalin saw the world, and make a long term analyse.

In hindsight settling 2 million Germans mostly on the Russian-Kazakh border makes a lot of sense. USSR suffered under the loss of several million men, especially among the Russian population. The average German was in more skilled than the average Soviet citizen. The Germans far from their homeland would also be unlikely to be troublesome, and even if they were the army could be used on them without any public outcry. If they was all placed in Kazakhstan they would also push the Kazakh down to be only the third largest group in their own republic, but even if only half are settle there, it would lower Kazakhs to only 25% of the population.

If the German POWs were used to Sovietize northern Kazakhstan, then the Russians who were sent to settle Kazakhstan in the 50s and 60s could instead be sent to the Baltic States and Ukraine, having significant effects later on.

 

[John Dusk]

German PoWs were not kept idle in work camps, as it was several memoirs I've come across from German PoWs in Russia describe the hard labor they were put to and the high mortality rate.

How high was the mortality rate?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

How high was the mortality rate?

We aren't sure how many died IOTL so getting a rate is tough, based on official stats it was around 13.2% (381,000 out of 2.88 million). Likely that is an understatement based on very specific criteria if true at all, namely that it only counted people that survived long enough to get to NKVD prison camps, likely with hundreds of thousands dying en route or in 'off books' labor use, while probably hundreds of thousands more died trying to surrender or just in mass slaughters as Soviet forces didn't even try to take prisoners at many points; given how many stories I'm coming across about massacres Wallied forces did in 1943-45, especially in late 1944-45, it is likely the Soviets did it much more often given the nature of the war in the East. As it stands about 1 million Germans did not reappear in some capacity at the end of the war, either as a PoW, died as PoW, or officially reported dead and likely the majority died in or at Soviet hands at some point of the war, even though the death rate in Wallied custody at the end of the war was higher than official records stated. In the end it was a brutal mess.

 

[History Learner]

I think the interesting part of this POD are to resettle the Germans not as unfree workers, but with the goal of making Soviet citizens out of them. We would likely need to slightly change how Stalin saw the world, and make a long term analyse.

In hindsight settling 2 million Germans mostly on the Russian-Kazakh border makes a lot of sense. USSR suffered under the loss of several million men, especially among the Russian population. The average German was in more skilled than the average Soviet citizen. The Germans far from their homeland would also be unlikely to be troublesome, and even if they were the army could be used on them without any public outcry. If they was all placed in Kazakhstan they would also push the Kazakh down to be only the third largest group in their own republic, but even if only half are settle there, it would lower Kazakhs to only 25% of the population.

The significant lack of young men in the USSR Post-War, which is still reflected to this day in how large the elderly female age cohort is compared to the similar male one, raises a serious point. Having large numbers of young German men, overwhelmingly both veterans of the Wehrmacht (And SS, to a far lesser extent give they were usually shot out of hand to my knowledge) and the Ost Front, settle in the Soviet Union on a permanent basis probably will provoke a large amount of cultural backlash due to concerns over "Children of the Enemy" and such; I can't see a lot of Red Army vets taking kindly to their ex-enemies marrying native girls for example. What that would do to Russian culture in the long term would be interesting, to say the least.