Almost at the same time would be just as good. Say only a couple of minutes apart.
Hmm. Torpedo planes first, THEN the dive bombers? With the fighters sticking to the Devastators, the idea was to nail the enemy ships with the SBDs to degrade their AA, and then use their TBMs to "polish them off". But IMO with the near-complete obsolescence of the Devastators (1), they'd have little chance unless their targets were already truly demolished and the Zeroes distracted by the F4F escorts (2) and SBDs.
1) At Midway no less than three (if not more) US types of aircraft never saw action again after that battle: Devastators, Vindicators, and Buffaloes.
2) I figure in this thread that TF 16 & 17 are sending in their historical numbers of escorts, while using the same historical numbers for CAP.
With that many US aircraft in the area at the same time, Hiryu is probably going to get sunk, as well as the other 3 Japanese CV’s. I’d expect that more of the escorts get damaged as well.
Agreed. At the get-go all four carriers were together, but the USN TBM attacks forced the Hiryu to flee to the north over the horizon to avoid the torpedoes. Also, after the Hiryu was sunk the remaining SBDs did in fact attack the remaining escorts of the
Kido Butai. But the attacks were too dispersed, and they were against the much better protected four
Kongo-class battleships. They did little damage.
The main thing here though is that Yorktown will survive Midway, get a proper repair/refit job, and be available for the Guadalcanal campaign. Which, in my view, could be a game changer there.
Maybe not. It will take a lot longer for the US Navy to discover the fecklessness of Frank "Four Feathers" Fletcher if he brings his task forces home completely intact and totally victorious. It does away with his pusillanimous message to Nimitz during the Solomons Campaign reporting that he was forced to withdraw in the face of the enemy because his fighter force was down from 99 to...78!?
Whenever Fletcher ever so much as stubbed his toe, he would be seized by an irresistible urge to sail away a few hundred miles and refuel.
Though it should be mentioned that both the
Saratoga and the
Zuikaku were racing towards the battle when Yamamoto decided enough was enough. In fact, the Sara was only three days out at the time.
Besides that; Yamaguchi still gets killed, maybe Nagumo (which may not be a bad thing for Japan) (3),
3) If someone can come up with a reason for Nagumo to move his flag to the
Kaga, then he definitely WILL die. Horribly.
and the US is in a position to attack other elements of the IJN.
We're still only talking about three mostly green air wings, not the mighty fleets of Spruance and Halsey in late 1943-45. Unless the strike commanders can get their crews to attack very specific targets, its likely only the battleships will draw fire. So short of a lucky Golden BB, the
Kongo BBs may take some (or a lot) of superficial damage on the superstructure, its likely that they are too fast for the glacial but surviving ITTL TBMs to nail them. The Kongo BBs were almost as fast as cruisers.
I think the US will still err on the side of caution somewhat, so no surface action takes place.
Oh absolutely. it would be madness. The USN had Treaty Cruisers with a set of main guns that fired at half the rate of Japanese CAs. Much more heavily robust built IJN CAs. By mid-war, most of the USN Treaty Cruisers that were still afloat were sent to the Aleutians, just so they wouldn't be sunk. Of the 18 Treaty Cruisers the USN started the war with, one was the Tuscaloosa (humorlessly called the "East Coast Ferry" for never leaving the US East Coast. One was the Augusta, kept in the Atlantic for diplomatic trips. 6 were sent to Alaska, and TEN were sunk!
The Treaty Cruisers were basically very long ranged big gunned super sized destroyers. They could take SOME damage up top, but their torpedo protection was a joke. Only ONE torpedo hit the Indianapolis, and she quickly lost all power and went down in minutes. The story that she didn't send an SOS because "her mission (4) was Top Secret" is a myth. They had no power to send a distress call, and no time before she sank.
4) Delivering The Bomb(s) to Tinian Island.
But if the US finds the Japanese Main Body, then more IJN ships will be sunk or be spending a lot of time in yards (and not available for the coming action down south).
As the classic film "Midway" says, that would put Fletcher between two (or three) forces. The invasion fleet, Yamamoto, and Nagumo's survivors. Also, the further Fletcher goes west, the closer he comes to being within Wake Island's air range. Yamamoto had 50 Japanese Betty medium bombers (trained for maritime strikes) loaded up and ready for the first word that the Americans were coming within their air range. Something that neither Fletcher nor Spruance would ever do.
Without his carriers, Yamamoto wasn't ready to risk what was left of his fleet in broad daylight within air range of Midway.
Yamamoto didn't know the following:
Casualties among the American carrier F4Fs had been moderate.
Casualties among the American carrier SBDs had been heavy.
Casualties among the American carrier TBMs had been nearly total.
The Hornet's SBDs had been displaced to Midway (they'd gotten lost).
Most of the Midway air wing except the PBYs and B-17s had been wiped out.
Empty fuel tanks splashed more enemy planes than did IJN action.
The enemy WOULD NOT advance into Wake's air range.
The enemy WOULD NOT advance towards the enemy after sunset.
The enemy WOULD retreat after sunset.
His vaunted battleships, even the Kongo-class, simply weren't fast enough to pursue the American carriers. Only their cruisers and destroyers could match the American's speed (the Akagi and Kaga were too slow), and only the two Hiryu-class were faster (barely, they be all the way to Hawaii-yikes!-before Yamaguchi would ever "catch up")
Or even worse, if the US finds the Midway invasion force, then all those transports are gone,
That would require Fletcher to move hell for leather to get within striking distance. Its far more likely that Kondo, the invasion fleet commander, will book first. He had a light fleet carrier, the Zuiho, with him. Enough to provide him the means to warn him that he'd been spotted (OTL he knew his force was the first to be seen).
If there's one thing we learned from Savo Island, its that the USN wasn't ready to take on the IJNs destroyers and rapid-fire/stout CAs. Plus, hitting destroyers from the air in 1942 for the USN was tough. I would imagine Fletcher, for reasons of distance and logistics, would prefer whittling down what's left of Nagumo instead.
and alot of Japanese soldiers are gone.
As a matter of fact, those Imperial Japanese Naval (Landing) Forces meant for Midway very much WERE the first troops thrown into Guadacanal after the Ichiki Regiment got slaughtered.
The IJN and Yamamoto lose a lot face and the army is even more unlikely to work with and support the navy.
I'd say that Yamamoto's constant threats to resign will lose their effect, but the IJA will be trapped: Since the gravest threat now is from the USA, what can they do? NOT defend the Empire? This will certainly kill any more offensives, but then OTL the Japanese really didn't let themselves be stopped by the strategic reality of their situation.
