WI:The first US air strike during Midway had been perfectly coordinated?

How about Hornets dive bombers actually finding their target, but they will arrive first since they had already turned for Midway when Enterprise found the japanese carriers. So what if Hornets dive bombers arrive at the same time as one of the torp squadrons or just before? Same result?

My scenario has everyone there at once. As you describe, the Hornet TP and fighters seemed to have stuck together. Going SE after hitting the rendezvous was the cautious choice, because it meant that they could land at Midway if they found nothing else. Fortunately, the DB commanders of Enterprise and Yorktown were made of sterner stuff. OTOH, the Hornet did have the greenest air crew in the fleet.

How the Hornet's DBs arriving in your scenario will depend of several factors:

Do their escorts, which should have been with the torpedo planes, stick with Hornet's DBs?
What is the exact timing for their arrival compared to all the other (historical) strikes?
Unless they turn NW before they reach the rendezvous point (ahistorical), but bollix up their navigation (VERY historical:rolleyes:) so as to put them NE of Nagumo (which will put them right in front of a Hiryu in its historical position) I don't see them doing much beyond totally polishing off Akagi to the point where considerations of saving her quickly becomes moot (*BOOM!*).


Glad to see usertron is back.

:confused:Where did I go? Too much time in Chat & ASB I guess.

air group can probably account for a carrier, maybe two depending. They will be followed closely by VT-6 and they may do better with the CAP being a bit easier. How things go depends on what carriers they get. If they get Nagumo's carriers, Yamaguchi is on his own and he just might decide to put priority into launching his carriers' dive bomber squadrons as quickly as possible. Good chance they get into the air before McCluskey and Leslie arrive.

Launching immediately, however his planes were armed, was what Yamaguchi had argued all along. Even to the point of signaling Nagumo to that effect. (1)

Now, in the Battle of Leyte Gulf, when distress calls were being sent by Kinkaid to Halsey-IN THE CLEAR!-begging for help against the entire Japanese battle line of Kurita's fleet? Halsey managed to convince himself that fleets hundreds of miles away at Surigao or coming all the way from Ulithi would be able to give Kinkaid all the help he needed. After all, Halsey had a far more important (and in a tactician's mind like Halsey's, ONLY important) job to do: SINK THE MOST ENEMY SHIPS!

It got to the point where desperate staff officers onboard Admiral Marc Mitscher's (the fleet air commander) flagship Enterprise woke him up to beg him to speak directly to Halsey to request the fleet turnaround. He responded: If Halsey wants my advice he can ask for it! And he promptly went back to sleep. IOW, you don't tell your superior officer he's being a doofus. Especially on a signal that will carry over the fleet!

1) And if was disrespectful to your commanding officer in the US Navy, in the Imperial Japan Navy it was suicidal effrontery! It showed how desperate things were that Yamaguchi was willing to throw his career away in order to impress upon his commander the dire nature of their circumstances. But instead, Nagumo seemed to reply to the professional insult by doing the exact opposite: Land all his planes, refuel them, rearm them for a naval strike, and then launch an attack with all massed might. But all this will take time. Precious time...:eek::evilsmile: NOTE: All in blue highlight is a direct quote from Herman Wouk's "War & Remembrance".
 
Just this. Every land-based strike aircraft from Midway, combined with every torpedo plane, dive bomber, and (assigned) escort fighter from TF 16 & 17, had arrived over the Kido Butai all at once? Feel free to pick a time. I'd say you have to cancel Fletcher's useless aerial scout missions to the north, and have all of the three US carriers with fully working elevators. Also, I'd have to rule that the critical hit knocking out the fuel pumps at Midway misses.

Opinions? Ideas for scenarios?

Wadda think happens? Nagumo gets totally hammered. All four carriers blown away.
 
Wadda think happens? Nagumo gets totally hammered. All four carriers blown away.

OK.

Beyond that, how quickly does Yamamoto decide to run for it?

Does he still set up an ambush for a surface battle?

Does Fletcher, after turning around at sunset (which if Spruance did Fletcher DEFINITELY will do so!)?

Does Fletcher sail all the way back to Midway to cover the island (and refuel, of course:rolleyes::confused:)?

Does Fletcher turn around after dawn and pursue Yamamoto's fleet (Nagumo's battleships, cruisers, and destroyers)? (1)(2)

1) Too ASB?:winkytongue:

2) Pretty much in any scenario short of a first round IJN victory/standoff, and perhaps an attempt to take/invade Midway, the Saratoga will never arrive in time for the battle.

The oncoming Zuikaku is a whole lot further away than the Saratoga, the Hiyo & Junyo in the Aleutians have half the (stormy) North Pacific to cross, and the aircraft complements of the Hosho (with Yamamoto's "Main Battle Force") and the Zuiho (with Kondo's invasion forces) aren't worth considering.
 
To Clarify...

..Does Fletcher sail all the way back to Midway to cover the island (and refuel, of course:rolleyes::confused:)?

Did you mean Hawaii? The two TF were operating east of Midway. Was there a advantage in refueling @ Midway?

2400 5 June.png


Note how TF 16 ran through the rain squalls between 04:20 & 9:30. How thick was this cloud cover - how much concealment would it have provided against the air reconnaissance of the enemy? The rendezvous point of the Second Fleet and residual Mobile Force is fairly close to the Yorktowns position. If the Japanse spot the crippled Yorktown what will the decision be? Certainly a group will be sent to run her down, but will the entire combined force head off straight east to search for more US ships in that direction? When the Yorktowns salvage group spots the enemy fleet there is better than a 50% chance TF16 will pick up radio messages warning them of enemy spotted in that area. If the rain/overcast has concealed TF16 the it can either launch strike, or flee south east, or both.
 
To Clarify...



Did you mean Hawaii? The two TF were operating east of Midway. Was there a advantage in refueling @ Midway?

View attachment 374827

Note how TF 16 ran through the rain squalls between 04:20 & 9:30. How thick was this cloud cover - how much concealment would it have provided against the air reconnaissance of the enemy? The rendezvous point of the Second Fleet and residual Mobile Force is fairly close to the Yorktowns position. If the Japanse spot the crippled Yorktown what will the decision be? Certainly a group will be sent to run her down, but will the entire combined force head off straight east to search for more US ships in that direction? When the Yorktowns salvage group spots the enemy fleet there is better than a 50% chance TF16 will pick up radio messages warning them of enemy spotted in that area. If the rain/overcast has concealed TF16 the it can either launch strike, or flee south east, or both.

The reference to Fletcher heading to Midway to "refuel" was strictly tongue-in-cheek. I am NOT a fan of Fletcher. His obsession with fighting only when he had topped off fuel tanks was legendary. Regarding Midway, I could imagine Fletcher using the direct defense of Midway as an excuse for his falling back in the face of the enemy.

Also, ITTL, Fletcher isn't making his northern scouting run, so he can keep closer to Spruance.

In the scenario of a perfectly coordinated attack of ALL US aircraft, Midway + TF 16 + TF 17, Fletcher's only real excuse for falling back is avoiding the enemy's surface fleet. Which to be honest, by nightfall was the only card Yamamoto still had left to play. OTL, while the crews of Spruance's task force may have been calling him a coward for withdrawing after pummeling Nagumo, naval historians have overwhelmingly come down on Spruance's side.
 
OK.

Beyond that, how quickly does Yamamoto decide to run for it?

Immediately. It's not like the historical case where he can imagine 2 out of 3 US carriers are sunk or crippled. .

Does Fletcher, after turning around at sunset (which if Spruance did Fletcher DEFINITELY will do so!)?

Yes. Fletcher was a good carrier commander, IMO.

Does Fletcher turn around after dawn and pursue Yamamoto's fleet (Nagumo's battleships, cruisers, and destroyers)? (1)(2)

During daylight hours, I'd say yes, he does.

The oncoming Zuikaku is a whole lot further away than the Saratoga, the Hiyo & Junyo in the Aleutians have half the (stormy) North Pacific to cross, and the aircraft complements of the Hosho (with Yamamoto's "Main Battle Force") and the Zuiho (with Kondo's invasion forces) aren't worth considering.

Zuikaku is not a factor. Nor should the carriers in the Aleutians be - they were no match for 3 Yorktown Fleet carriers.
 
Looking over the map in post 24 its looking more & more like a lot depends on the concealment of the rain or overcast area. If I'm interpreting the times correctly TF16 will be in that area when the Japanese air search passes. If TF16 remains undetected a large advantage and second important piece of luck goes to the USN. The Yorktown salvage group will certainly be spotted. If the retiring rump of TF17 is also observed I'm wondering how likely it is Yamamoto & his staff will turn their attention fully east and lose sight of possibilities to the SE ?

Another thought concerns US signal intel. Is there any evidence US signal analysis picked up any indication during the night of any Japanese locations? Or another time during the battle? What about Japanese signal intel on US forces? Not asking about decrypts here, but the other indicators of signal analysis.

Does Fletcher, after turning around at sunset (which if Spruance did Fletcher DEFINITELY will do so!)?

... During daylight hours, I'd say yes, he does. ...

Not sure if this is the same day asked about, but the map shows TF16 turning west at 01:58 5 June & running slowly on roughly 270 degrees until 04:20 when it speeds up & turns south west. This what caused me to ask about the signals intel. TF16 is from midnight making circles in the sea @ approx 34N 175W for two hours, then takes off in the dark on a westerly course. There must have been some confidence they were not going to run into a enemy group in the dark.
 
Immediately. It's not like the historical case where he can imagine 2 out of 3 US carriers are sunk or crippled.

Agreed.

Yes. Fletcher was a good carrier commander, IMO.

We'll just agree to disagree on that.

Zuikaku is not a factor. Nor should the carriers in the Aleutians be - they were no match for 3 Yorktown Fleet carriers.

I have a vague memory of Yamamoto planning to send the AO carrier force south to entrap TF 16 & 17. But IIRC that was before the confirmation of the Hiryu's sinking. AFAIK, considering the capabilities of the Hosho and Zuiho was not in anyone's thoughts.

Its the position of the Zuikaku I find interesting. Does anyone have an exact track on her movements?

When the Saratoga had left San Diego, she finally got rid of her old Vindicators. Her mission to join up with TF 16 & 17 seems to have been for reinforcing the losses for Spruance IOTL.
 
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When the Saratoga had left San Diego, she finally got rid of her old Vindicators. Her mission to join up with TF 16 & 17 seems to have been for reinforcing the losses for Spruance IOTL.

Thats correct. She left Oahu with extra aircraft to replace losses of the other two carriers. One author described her as carrying a double deck load tho that sounds a bit exaggerated.
 
Zuikaku's Trom on Combined fleet says she sortied on June 15th to join Kakuta at Ominato, then to the Aleutians on the 28th of June, then homeward bound on July 6th.
 
Zuikaku's Trom on Combined fleet says she sortied on June 15th to join Kakuta at Ominato, then to the Aleutians on the 28th of June, then homeward bound on July 6th.

Thanks for straightening me out. One source I no longer recall said she was heading for Yamamoto &/or Nagumo, but the reference wasn't clear. WTF was the idea of sending a fleet CV to reinforce a diversion that was already known to have failed!? Command inertia?
 
Thanks for straightening me out. One source I no longer recall said she was heading for Yamamoto &/or Nagumo, but the reference wasn't clear. WTF was the idea of sending a fleet CV to reinforce a diversion that was already known to have failed!? Command inertia?

No, I think the date she managed to sortie was an emergency ASAP kind of thing. BTW, one of the great snipe hunts of the Pacific War historical community is, what was Zuikaku's air group during that sortie...

In terms of the purpose, I'm not sure.
 
IIRC she was docked in PH taking on fuel, ammo, aircraft & crew. Had been completing refit in May & made a hasty finish & departure for Oahu. Joined TF16 on the 8th
 
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