WI: The Dutch in 1940 hold out but France, Belgium collapse as OTL. What next?

I was kind of curious about what exactly the Dutch would have done, if they managed to beat off the first Nazi attacks, but France falls as OTL.

It just doesn't seem to be a good defensive position to hold. Once all German grounded forces are finished with France, I don't think you could possibly hold it barring ASB. Not to mention unwanted attention of German air forces.

Do the Dutch just use the time to wreck everything and evacuate? Do they try to hold out and get overrun? How defensible is the Netherlands anyway (you can answer based on whatever defensive line makes the most sense). Perhaps they may just sign an armistice?
 
Well, it wouldn't be fun to take, but flooded fields are no English Channel. Combined air and ground attack could probably breach it and in the mean time bombing would probably be ongoing. My guess is that they would evacuate, but that is just supposition.
 
The Luftwaffe and the artillery gradually reduce all of their cities to matchsticks and brickdust until they surrender probably. Even if their army can hold a defence line against the Heer their air force can't hope to stop the Luftwaffe, the RAF will make a lot of sympathetic noises while desperately trying to build up Spitfire/Hurricane numbers in the UK ready for the far more important battle to come and eventually there's enough dead Dutch civvies to force the Dutch government to surrender no matter how strong the army thinks their defence line is.
 

Emperor_Coz

Banned
The Luftwaffe and the artillery gradually reduce all of their cities to matchsticks and brickdust until they surrender probably. Even if their army can hold a defence line against the Heer their air force can't hope to stop the Luftwaffe, the RAF will make a lot of sympathetic noises while desperately trying to build up Spitfire/Hurricane numbers in the UK ready for the far more important battle to come and eventually there's enough dead Dutch civvies to force the Dutch government to surrender no matter how strong the army thinks their defence line is.
The dutch never properly surrendered,and Wilhelmina fired the PM that tried to.In this situation,they may evacuate,but if they held out till December 7,then maybe it could be used as a lift-off for Montgomery and Eisenhower.The former is much more likely though.
 

Dolan

Banned
Now, what if the Dutch is essentially a Sweden-like Neutral that could be said to be Nazi Sympathizer from the start?

Maybe some political POD caused the 20s and 30s Netherlands ended up being somewhat closer to become a fascist state and ended up supporting Germany instead of France.

They didn't exactly joined the Axis, but pretty much being Axis sympathizer, to the point that they keep trading and supplying the Nazis, and the Nazis understood their neutrality is to protect their colonies (so no attack on Netherlands). Maybe the Dutch tried to offer joining the Axis in exchange of Belgium, but Hitler rejected it, and they keep being neutral?
 
Now, what if the Dutch is essentially a Sweden-like Neutral that could be said to be Nazi Sympathizer from the start?

(1) If it's a "Nazi Sympathizer" it's not "Sweden-like." Of course the Swedes made substantial concessions to Germany to avoid invasion but that is not the same thing as being Nazi sympathizers.

(2) A Nazi or Fascist Netherlands? Good luck with that. The Narional Socialist Movement got 4 percent in the 1937 elections. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1937_Dutch_general_election
 
You will have to change Dutch policy before the war for this to even happen. Modernize the Dutch equipment. In OTL the Dutch had about 9 divisions facing 22 German divisions.
 
The Dutch can delay the Germans and slow down their advance, but if France and Belgium fall they can't hold out for long. All they could do would be to evacuate as much as they can to Britain and destroy as much of what has to be left behind as is possible.
 
Maybe they could evacuate some ships and men, but other than that a delay is only a delay.

Remember what the Nazis did to Rotterdam. Any delay in surrender will just cause more destruction.
 
The Dutch managed to do significantly better than anyone expected and were still beaten in 5 days. There is no way the Dutch would be able to defeat or hold of Nazi Germany.

The only way I think it could happen is if the Germans completely ignore the Betherlands, simply use the South East of the country as a road towards Belgium and France and simply ignore the rest of the country since it is no threat to the Germans only to finish it off the moment France is defeated.
 
I think that IF.... the dutch could prevent the link-up with paratroopers (Blow-up/ retake the Moerdijk bridges), hold the Grebbelinie, and Kornwerderzand (afsluitdijk), the Germans would seal the dutch off (if there first assault failed) and go on with their plan for France, sealing the dutch off will take the least troops, also the Luftwafffe would put their main effort in francen and not an backwater. (They ARE on an strict timetable for that) . After the Fall of France they would return to deal with the Dutch, but first had to take sometime to sort the Army/Airforce out after an long/hard campaign, transport units back to the Netherlands etc .. The biggest change would be less panic with Britsh Goverment (Airborne assaults can be defeated) after Dunkirk. I Think that the fear of an German Invasion would be less because the Germans where not in complete controle of the continent yet. And every day that the Dutch hold out, is a day closer to Autumn and zero chance that the Germans can invade in 1940
 
They managed to evacuate a significant part of their navy in OTL even part completed ships so extra time may have seen more ships escape
 

Dageraad

Donor
There is a very well researched and documented timeline about the situation were:
- The Dutch do not expect the French to race north and come to the rescue
- They blow the Moerdijk bridges
- The French do not race to the north and blunt the German sickle strike,
 
The dutch never properly surrendered,and Wilhelmina fired the PM that tried to.In this situation,they may evacuate,but if they held out till December 7,then maybe it could be used as a lift-off for Montgomery and Eisenhower.The former is much more likely though.

They didn't surrender as a nation although the bulk of their military did. There's no chance they're going to hold out until December 1941, the Germans can't afford to have an enemy ground force in their rear before Barbarossa starts and they will just do what they did to Rotterdam to every other Dutch city that continues to hold out. Even if they're commanded by someone who can ignore all those dead women and children (and who inspires enough respect or fear from the men to have them ignore their families being killed), there's no way the UK can supply the entire Dutch nation with food and arms through 1940 and 1941.

You're looking at Leningrad on a national scale if they do try and hold out, except there's no massive army outside trying to relieve them and no ice bridge that's going to bring supplies in and get some evacuees out.
 
I was kind of curious about what exactly the Dutch would have done, if they managed to beat off the first Nazi attacks, but France falls as OTL.

It just doesn't seem to be a good defensive position to hold. Once all German grounded forces are finished with France, I don't think you could possibly hold it barring ASB. Not to mention unwanted attention of German air forces.

Do the Dutch just use the time to wreck everything and evacuate? Do they try to hold out and get overrun? How defensible is the Netherlands anyway (you can answer based on whatever defensive line makes the most sense). Perhaps they may just sign an armistice?

Is this a joke? The Dutch millitary in the Netherlands in may 1940 were quite outdated in equipment and lacked even the most elementary things like munitions for the troops and weapons, as well as artillery. Numerically the Dutch defense force was quite large, containing a large number of conscripts, reserves and auxiliary personel, but in terms of fitting them out the Dutch really lacked behind, mostly as a reaction on the previous defense budgets cuts in the crisis of the 30's.

Besides the numbers, the tactic of scourged earth, later used effectively in other parts of the world, did not work that well in theNetherlands, mostly due to geographical reasoning, as flooding a landsurface was nice to do in times when landarmies were mostly on foot and horseback, but not against a modern more mobile enemy with airpower and amphibian capabilities of some kind, besides an industrial power of significant more output then their own.
 
Is this a joke? The Dutch millitary in the Netherlands in may 1940 were quite outdated in equipment and lacked even the most elementary things like munitions for the troops and weapons, as well as artillery. Numerically the Dutch defense force was quite large, containing a large number of conscripts, reserves and auxiliary personel, but in terms of fitting them out the Dutch really lacked behind, mostly as a reaction on the previous defense budgets cuts in the crisis of the 30's.

Besides the numbers, the tactic of scourged earth, later used effectively in other parts of the world, did not work that well in theNetherlands, mostly due to geographical reasoning, as flooding a landsurface was nice to do in times when landarmies were mostly on foot and horseback, but not against a modern more mobile enemy with airpower and amphibian capabilities of some kind, besides an industrial power of significant more output then their own.
You are correct, but the Dutch are only a sideshow for the Germans in the attack on the West, If for some reason the first assault fails, the won't divert troops from the main attack/schwerpunkt. Only after the have defeated the French/BEF, they will turn their attention on the Dutch. And like I said before, they also need some extra time to rest, reorganize and move their troops first to begin an second assault on the rest of the netherlands. The final outcome is not going to be different, but the extra time it gives to the dutch and Allies could be important.
 
Is this a joke? The Dutch millitary in the Netherlands in may 1940 were quite outdated in equipment and lacked even the most elementary things like munitions for the troops and weapons, as well as artillery. Numerically the Dutch defense force was quite large, containing a large number of conscripts, reserves and auxiliary personel, but in terms of fitting them out the Dutch really lacked behind, mostly as a reaction on the previous defense budgets cuts in the crisis of the 30's.

Well all things considered the Dutch Army was not that big. In 1940 there were 4.400.000 men in the Netherlands. Out of those there were only 280.000 serving in the military. That is 6%. In Belgium that was 16%, almost triple. Now I must admit that I'm not sure if the number of 280,000 includes the Koninklijke Marine (and I'm 100% sure that it does not include the KNIL) but even if we correct for that it implies that there is still an untapped manpower pool of atleast 250,000 to 280,000 men. Manpower-wise one could double the Dutch Army.

Of course, as you said, the big problem was with equipping the Dutch Army. This was a problem OTL let alone in a scenario where the army is doubled. What has always struck me is the level of complacency in the pre-WWII Netherlands. The whole country looked at WWI and concluded that an effective defense was useless as neutrality was good enough, even though the effective defensive measures of taken in 1914 were themselves the reason neutrality was kept. Even after WWII had started in Poland didn't the defense industry work on full capacity, no night shifts or work done in the weekends. Bonkers!

It would be interesting to see what can be done to improve the Dutch military as much as possible in an Interbellum-wank though. Personally I think it should start with getting Colijn to let go of the golden standard at the start of the Great Depression, significantly shortening the economic crisis for the Netherlands, which should allow for a better rearmament in the '30s. To get that to happen one might need to go further back and stop Troelstra from making his greatest mistake in trying to start a revolution in 1918 though.
 
Well all things considered the Dutch Army was not that big. In 1940 there were 4.400.000 men in the Netherlands. Out of those there were only 280.000 serving in the military. That is 6%. In Belgium that was 16%, almost triple. Now I must admit that I'm not sure if the number of 280,000 includes the Koninklijke Marine (and I'm 100% sure that it does not include the KNIL) but even if we correct for that it implies that there is still an untapped manpower pool of atleast 250,000 to 280,000 men. Manpower-wise one could double the Dutch Army.

Of course, as you said, the big problem was with equipping the Dutch Army. This was a problem OTL let alone in a scenario where the army is doubled. What has always struck me is the level of complacency in the pre-WWII Netherlands. The whole country looked at WWI and concluded that an effective defense was useless as neutrality was good enough, even though the effective defensive measures of taken in 1914 were themselves the reason neutrality was kept. Even after WWII had started in Poland didn't the defense industry work on full capacity, no night shifts or work done in the weekends. Bonkers!

It would be interesting to see what can be done to improve the Dutch military as much as possible in an Interbellum-wank though. Personally I think it should start with getting Colijn to let go of the golden standard at the start of the Great Depression, significantly shortening the economic crisis for the Netherlands, which should allow for a better rearmament in the '30s. To get that to happen one might need to go further back and stop Troelstra from making his greatest mistake in trying to start a revolution in 1918 though.

I agree with this mostly, though the term "quite large" means the army, or Koninklijke Landmacht, of early 1940 numbering around 270,000 total in the homeland excluding the troops in oversea territories, was large on a total domestic population of around 4+ million, compared to a normal peacetime size of around 80,000 - 100,000 in this period in history. Even this peace time sized army was not that well equipped with supplies and munitions. In the whole territory of the Netherlands, prior to 1940, there were just 32 armored vehicles of the wheeled type armored car and not a single active tracked tank. (the only one it had possessed had been disposed of in an pre-war test.)

The main problem was the interbellum political climate of passifism, where the succeeding governments refused to invest large amounts of budgets in the defenses of the nation (as well as the oversea territories). With a more military orientated type of government the defenses could have been much more organised, better equipped and prepared for whatever threat there was, though still unlikely to withstand a full blown assault of the much larger neighbor on its eastern border. At best it could have delayed the attack of the Wehrmacht a bit longer, but in the end still succumb eventually due to the much larger military resources Germany could throw in.

The best thing the Dutch could have done was not to split the defense budget between homeland and oversea defenses, this would indicate the homeland would likely be left mostly undefended with military hardware and heavily rely on its diplomacy and its "strength" in neutrality. Focusing on the Dutch east Indies was more logical as the colony was the primary source of the Dutch economy in this time, as well as political thinking. Besides this, a stronger defense in the East Indies was also likely to attract more goodwill with the other colonial powers UK and France (pre-1940). In terms of military strength, the East Indies likely would be taken still by Japan, but with somewhat more difficulties, due to a stiffer potential of the defending Dutch Navy especially.
 
You are correct, but the Dutch are only a sideshow for the Germans in the attack on the West, If for some reason the first assault fails, the won't divert troops from the main attack/schwerpunkt. Only after the have defeated the French/BEF, they will turn their attention on the Dutch. And like I said before, they also need some extra time to rest, reorganize and move their troops first to begin an second assault on the rest of the netherlands. The final outcome is not going to be different, but the extra time it gives to the dutch and Allies could be important.
France collapsed in mid June, by September the Germans will be more than ready to finish the Dutch off. It does mean there's much less of an invasion scare in Britain as without the Dutch canal barges Sea Lion is even more of a non starter and in any case the Germans would want the Dutch dealt with first.
 
The Dutch managed to do significantly better than anyone expected and were still beaten in 5 days. There is no way the Dutch would be able to defeat or hold of Nazi Germany.

The only way I think it could happen is if the Germans completely ignore the Betherlands, simply use the South East of the country as a road towards Belgium and France and simply ignore the rest of the country since it is no threat to the Germans only to finish it off the moment France is defeated.

If they go through Limburg as you suggest, they are not ignoring the Netherlands and they are at war. If the Germans don't invade then the Dutch have the room to retaliate in reponse to German soldiers crossing the border, even if they are only passing through.
 
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