The Duchy of Saxony was a decent power within the northern HRE, but was torn apart due to messy successions. But what if it was able to survive past the 1200s and into the 1500s or even 1600s? Based on its geography I could see it wanting to gain more power on the north sea and pose a significant challenge to the Prussians in their east. Could we see a major colonizer from the HRE? or would it be pulled into conflicts with the Emperor and France, ruining their chances?
WI: The Duchy of Saxony Remained In Tact?
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The Duchy of Saxony was a decent power within the northern HRE, but was torn apart due to messy successions. But what if it was able to survive past the 1200s and into the 1500s or even 1600s? Based on its geography I could see it wanting to gain more power on the north sea and pose a significant challenge to the Prussians in their east. Could we see a major colonizer from the HRE? or would it be pulled into conflicts with the Emperor and France, ruining their chances?
It's potential is huge given the amount of sailors and it's role in the North Sea Trade, and potentially even the Baltic too. Colonies are almost inevitable, they'll have interests in the cod trade (hence East Coast of North America) and have the manpower and economy to back Caribbean and African colonies. They could pretty much be a mix of the Netherlands and Austria (or Prussia) geopolitically and unlike those countries they don't even have any major threats on their border and can fight any wars against a major threat like France or another major HRE power within someone else's borders.
And remember, before Saxony was broken up they also held Bavaria too and their family (the Welfs) were hugely powerful all over the Holy Roman Empire. They'd be perpetual competitors for the position of Emperor and I could see them achieving it for decades or even centuries like the Hapsburgs.
I think they'd need to worry about conflicts with their wealthy cities and likely also religious wars. France will likely be a major enemy so I think England would be a frequent ally.
And remember, before Saxony was broken up they also held Bavaria too and their family (the Welfs) were hugely powerful all over the Holy Roman Empire. They'd be perpetual competitors for the position of Emperor and I could see them achieving it for decades or even centuries like the Hapsburgs.
I think they'd need to worry about conflicts with their wealthy cities and likely also religious wars. France will likely be a major enemy so I think England would be a frequent ally.
The welfs holding saxony and Bavaria simultaneously would be interesting, but they're at the opposite ends of Germany with very different interests, so I could see them fracturing. If the dynasty holds it all that long anyway.
I am also surprised that you pegged France as their foe. If they're competing with Austria for the Empire, then I think they would naturally fall in line with Austria's competition- france. Especially if they're major players in the north sea, given the complicated relationship between England and Ntherlands, I could see a similar situation here. Would it shift during Welf or Saxon emperors? Maybe. Depends on how focused they are on Germany compared to the atlantic
Considering they have less resources than the other main colonizers but more than the Netherlands, how big an empire could they reasonably build? I'm guessing something around Maine and northeastern America, some of the western Caribbean islands (other than Haiti and cuba), but then what? Where could they establish themselves in africa and asia?
Perhaps keep the Billungs dynasty going or at least prevent inheritance by the Bavarian Welfs.
Alternatively have Henry the Lion more successful and split Bavaria and Saxony in whole between his sons.
Alternatively have Henry the Lion more successful and split Bavaria and Saxony in whole between his sons.
With the Duchy of Saxony and Bavaria, could they build a contiguous Kingdom comprising most of modern Germany? Or would they simply prefer to claim the HRE for greater prestige, even if it had less hard power?
Or would such a thing be ruinous and it would be better to keep them under different dynasties?
Or would such a thing be ruinous and it would be better to keep them under different dynasties?
The Welfs would either become emperor or fail like OTL there would be no reason to secede while being in the core and holding two of the most important duchies of the empire. However I don't know if Saxony could survive the Welfs if they're the emperors. The duchy of Swabia stopped existing after the imperial dynasty of the Staufens died out. I agree with this:
Saxony and Bavaria together are too strong and a more succesful Welf dynasty would probably more mean them succeding the Staufens in a time where the territorialisation of the princes and the decentralization might be averted. So you end up with a Welf HRE rather than a strong Saxony.
I believe pushing their borders/influence east is fairly inevitable as they exert control over their fellow low Saxons, I believe this would make their interest lie in dominating Baltic and north sea trade, this would likely put theylm into conflict with significant Scandinavian powers and Poland.
They may persue the title of holy Roman empire or may form a close relationship with the emperors so they may persue their own interests in the north while not having to worry about securing their own western and southern borders as much.
I think a possible union with Denmark would be quite interesting although the demographics could lead to the germanization (saxonization?) of the Danes.
If they do have issues with Poland they could become closely allied with Bohemia who historically desired greater Poland
They may persue the title of holy Roman empire or may form a close relationship with the emperors so they may persue their own interests in the north while not having to worry about securing their own western and southern borders as much.
I think a possible union with Denmark would be quite interesting although the demographics could lead to the germanization (saxonization?) of the Danes.
If they do have issues with Poland they could become closely allied with Bohemia who historically desired greater Poland
Oooh...
Since I'm from Lower Saxony, especially where Henry the Lion reigned and died. He's the first duke of our city of the Welf dynasty that ruled us till the end of the German Empire, he's also the one who developed our city very much and even gave us our cathedral and more important our symbol, his lion as our city symbol and as a statue in the center. So I'm really happy to talk about the duchy of Saxony and Henry. So, Saxony was a big and powerfull stem duchy with a good position for it's time and for the future.
If you want to go with Henry, then either give him more luck againts his older cousin, the Emperor Frederick I (Barbarossa), so first make Barbarossa give Henry the imperial city of Goslar, something Barbarossa often refused, so let's just say that he finally gives in. After that make Barbarossa more successful in Lombardy, because he lost there he blamed Henry for not being good enough to help, thus he invaded Saxony and forced Henry to go to exilled in Normandy for 3 years. So let's make Barbarossa win and praise Henry, shortly before we kill him similar how he died on the crusade. Thus him dying earlier makes his now 11 year old son Henry VI. Now with nobody to really stand in his way neither can Henry VI break up Saxony nor will Bardowick revolt againts Henry, so the city can become bigger.
Now you could either make Saxony and Bavaria slowly unite, thus building an OP Welf base in the Empire, thus we get a much more centralized HRE under the leadership if the Wefs, if this Welfish HRE survives then we can expect Low German to have a bigger influence in German/Dutch or it even replacing High German as the official language of the "German" part (German being Non-Romance areas). We could even expect the Low Lands, Northern East Germany and even maybe Jutland becoming core regions of a bigger Saxony, thus being nearer to the political and economic center of the empire, plus the much more similar linguistic and cultural relations with Low German (or rather Saxon) the Low Lands will probably not leave, so you can expect German colonies, where they start is up to you.
Now if you want a Strong Saxony that isn't integrated into Germany, then just have have them do a bit worse after Henry dies than the scenario above. Let's say that they loose Bavaria and everything below Saxony, they also don't become Emperor because of wide dislike of the Saxons, they become to weak to take controll themself but also are strong enough so that no sane emperor would invade Saxony. They pretty much become a somewhat pariah that is still economical and politically bound to the empire. So they will still probably integrate the regions east of them above the benrath line (which is the border between High and Low German). So Mecklenburg, Brandenburg and depending how the Empire will expand, but considering that Hither Pomerania was added to the Empire shortly after the 1170s, expect the Saxons to also expand to OTL Imperial border to Poland.
To the West I can see Saxony expanding to Frisia and maybe a bit more to the Rhine, maybe till the Sieg if my geography isn't failing. Maybe, but that's just a maybe Saxony can expand to the Netherlands north of the Rhine, that would make Saxony in the long term even stronger and more of a colonial and sea power. Up north maybe they can conquer Jutland from the Danes if the get the chance. So we have Saxony being the dominant power in North Germany, being the only way for the Empire to get to the Baltic and North Sea, with enough power to survive as it's own body and political and cultural differences to the rest of Germany. I wouldn't be surpised if they left the empire around maybe the 1400s if the Empire isn't offering them anything. After that they can make the North and Baltic Sea their Mare Nostrum, influencing Scandinavia even more and giving England much more influence than Dutch and German (both Low and High) ever did OTL. Hell, Saxony could even make it to either conquer or integrate England through a personal union, with a shorter Norman and Parisian French influence English would become much more Germanic than it became OTL, maybe it would stay like Early Middle English in a lot of ways, maybe even loosing the TH sound like it's continental brothers. After the 1500s and 1600s Saxony could become a colonial power, colonising North America. It would probably become a Rival to France, the Empire, Scandinavia (either a united Kalmar or only Danish (maybe Swedish, but I could see them rather as allies)) and Poland. If the Teutonic Order survives I could see it becoming a Saxon puppet so to be save from Poland, Lithuania and Denmark.
That of course if there isn't a personal union between Saxony and the Scandinavians. Maybe they will form a Northwest-Germanic creole language. (kinda like how it was after East Germanic split from Proto-Germanic)
Low German would also be a bit different than OTL with less Dutch/High German influence, rather I would see Low German influencing Dutch, maybe even assimilating it. With German I would see a lot more borowings for maritime, colonial and foreign (like America, India, Africa and East Asia) concepts.
Uuuh the possibilities are endless...
Suffice to say, the ideas of a (Low) Saxon super power gives me quite the hard boner, like wurtzite boron nitride kind of hard. So thanks for the post OP.
PS; I even made a late HRE CoA if the Welfs became Emperors (I used Henrys the Lions CoA, as I thought that he would become to prominent that the Welfs won't change their CoA)
Since I'm from Lower Saxony, especially where Henry the Lion reigned and died. He's the first duke of our city of the Welf dynasty that ruled us till the end of the German Empire, he's also the one who developed our city very much and even gave us our cathedral and more important our symbol, his lion as our city symbol and as a statue in the center. So I'm really happy to talk about the duchy of Saxony and Henry. So, Saxony was a big and powerfull stem duchy with a good position for it's time and for the future.
If you want to go with Henry, then either give him more luck againts his older cousin, the Emperor Frederick I (Barbarossa), so first make Barbarossa give Henry the imperial city of Goslar, something Barbarossa often refused, so let's just say that he finally gives in. After that make Barbarossa more successful in Lombardy, because he lost there he blamed Henry for not being good enough to help, thus he invaded Saxony and forced Henry to go to exilled in Normandy for 3 years. So let's make Barbarossa win and praise Henry, shortly before we kill him similar how he died on the crusade. Thus him dying earlier makes his now 11 year old son Henry VI. Now with nobody to really stand in his way neither can Henry VI break up Saxony nor will Bardowick revolt againts Henry, so the city can become bigger.
Now you could either make Saxony and Bavaria slowly unite, thus building an OP Welf base in the Empire, thus we get a much more centralized HRE under the leadership if the Wefs, if this Welfish HRE survives then we can expect Low German to have a bigger influence in German/Dutch or it even replacing High German as the official language of the "German" part (German being Non-Romance areas). We could even expect the Low Lands, Northern East Germany and even maybe Jutland becoming core regions of a bigger Saxony, thus being nearer to the political and economic center of the empire, plus the much more similar linguistic and cultural relations with Low German (or rather Saxon) the Low Lands will probably not leave, so you can expect German colonies, where they start is up to you.
Now if you want a Strong Saxony that isn't integrated into Germany, then just have have them do a bit worse after Henry dies than the scenario above. Let's say that they loose Bavaria and everything below Saxony, they also don't become Emperor because of wide dislike of the Saxons, they become to weak to take controll themself but also are strong enough so that no sane emperor would invade Saxony. They pretty much become a somewhat pariah that is still economical and politically bound to the empire. So they will still probably integrate the regions east of them above the benrath line (which is the border between High and Low German). So Mecklenburg, Brandenburg and depending how the Empire will expand, but considering that Hither Pomerania was added to the Empire shortly after the 1170s, expect the Saxons to also expand to OTL Imperial border to Poland.
To the West I can see Saxony expanding to Frisia and maybe a bit more to the Rhine, maybe till the Sieg if my geography isn't failing. Maybe, but that's just a maybe Saxony can expand to the Netherlands north of the Rhine, that would make Saxony in the long term even stronger and more of a colonial and sea power. Up north maybe they can conquer Jutland from the Danes if the get the chance. So we have Saxony being the dominant power in North Germany, being the only way for the Empire to get to the Baltic and North Sea, with enough power to survive as it's own body and political and cultural differences to the rest of Germany. I wouldn't be surpised if they left the empire around maybe the 1400s if the Empire isn't offering them anything. After that they can make the North and Baltic Sea their Mare Nostrum, influencing Scandinavia even more and giving England much more influence than Dutch and German (both Low and High) ever did OTL. Hell, Saxony could even make it to either conquer or integrate England through a personal union, with a shorter Norman and Parisian French influence English would become much more Germanic than it became OTL, maybe it would stay like Early Middle English in a lot of ways, maybe even loosing the TH sound like it's continental brothers. After the 1500s and 1600s Saxony could become a colonial power, colonising North America. It would probably become a Rival to France, the Empire, Scandinavia (either a united Kalmar or only Danish (maybe Swedish, but I could see them rather as allies)) and Poland. If the Teutonic Order survives I could see it becoming a Saxon puppet so to be save from Poland, Lithuania and Denmark.
That of course if there isn't a personal union between Saxony and the Scandinavians. Maybe they will form a Northwest-Germanic creole language. (kinda like how it was after East Germanic split from Proto-Germanic)
Low German would also be a bit different than OTL with less Dutch/High German influence, rather I would see Low German influencing Dutch, maybe even assimilating it. With German I would see a lot more borowings for maritime, colonial and foreign (like America, India, Africa and East Asia) concepts.
Uuuh the possibilities are endless...
Suffice to say, the ideas of a (Low) Saxon super power gives me quite the hard boner, like wurtzite boron nitride kind of hard. So thanks for the post OP.
PS; I even made a late HRE CoA if the Welfs became Emperors (I used Henrys the Lions CoA, as I thought that he would become to prominent that the Welfs won't change their CoA)
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It might not be completely in line with the OP, but IMHO totally intact seems a bit unlikely. It like Bavaria could have stayed more intact though. Bavaria in stages lost their peripheral regions, like Austria (1156), Tirol (1154), Salzburg (archbishopric, 1213) and Styria (1180), however the duchy of Bavaria the house of Wittelsbach was enfeoffed with in 1180 did have kept the core Bavarian lands.
The situation and end result within the Saxon lands was quite a bit differently. Saxony could still lose peripheral regions like Holstein/Nordalbingia, Mecklenburg, Anhalt, archbishoprics like Bremen and Magdeburg etc. However the ducal dignity of this 'new' younger duchy of Saxony could have stayed with the house of Welf. The house of Welf were the heirs of a few great Saxon dynasties, like the Billungs, Brunonen and the house of Süpplingenburg, in fact the later duchy of Braunschweig-Lüneburg was formed out of the allodial (dynastic lands of the house of Welf).
Maybe a principality in Westphalia (an TTL Tirol equivalent) could also break away. Still instead of the Braunschweig-Lüneburg and a rump duchy of Saxony (Sachsen-Wittenberg and Sachsen-Wittenberg), the house of Welf eventually is restored to a smaller duchy of Saxony, but one, which like Wittelsbach Bavaria does have retained more of the core Saxon lands. The eastern border would probably resemble that of Braunschweig-Lüneburg, but it would encompass more of Angria and Westphalia (again in both areas a principality could rise to prominence and be granted imperial immediacy, most likely one in a peripheral region).
I know it's not quite, what was asked in the OP, however it is more in line with the general trend in the Empire. Basically every Stem duchy disintegrated, partly due to imperial politics. Still unlike Saxony, Franconia, Swabia and Lower Lorraine, Bavaria disintegrated in relatively 'rational' manner (I'd argue that Upper Lorraine resembled Bavaria for a bit).
A Bavaria-like scenario for Saxony (or the stem duchies I mentioned) would have been a relative good outcome.
The situation and end result within the Saxon lands was quite a bit differently. Saxony could still lose peripheral regions like Holstein/Nordalbingia, Mecklenburg, Anhalt, archbishoprics like Bremen and Magdeburg etc. However the ducal dignity of this 'new' younger duchy of Saxony could have stayed with the house of Welf. The house of Welf were the heirs of a few great Saxon dynasties, like the Billungs, Brunonen and the house of Süpplingenburg, in fact the later duchy of Braunschweig-Lüneburg was formed out of the allodial (dynastic lands of the house of Welf).
Maybe a principality in Westphalia (an TTL Tirol equivalent) could also break away. Still instead of the Braunschweig-Lüneburg and a rump duchy of Saxony (Sachsen-Wittenberg and Sachsen-Wittenberg), the house of Welf eventually is restored to a smaller duchy of Saxony, but one, which like Wittelsbach Bavaria does have retained more of the core Saxon lands. The eastern border would probably resemble that of Braunschweig-Lüneburg, but it would encompass more of Angria and Westphalia (again in both areas a principality could rise to prominence and be granted imperial immediacy, most likely one in a peripheral region).
I know it's not quite, what was asked in the OP, however it is more in line with the general trend in the Empire. Basically every Stem duchy disintegrated, partly due to imperial politics. Still unlike Saxony, Franconia, Swabia and Lower Lorraine, Bavaria disintegrated in relatively 'rational' manner (I'd argue that Upper Lorraine resembled Bavaria for a bit).
A Bavaria-like scenario for Saxony (or the stem duchies I mentioned) would have been a relative good outcome.
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I like to think Saxony would later compete with Prussia and Austria for dominance in the Holy Roman Empire.
Perhaps it ends up eventually uniting Germany.
Perhaps it ends up eventually uniting Germany.
We'd probably butterfly Prussian dominance, and a tripolar Germany would likely be harder to unify than the bipolar balancing act. Ultimately saxony might not want to get involved in pan-German affairs. They'd probably be inclined towards naval power. Prussian militarism came from a need to be tough to survive and they weren't in a position to expand overseas. Neither are really the case for the Saxons
Considering that one of the biggest advantage of Switzerland was/is the Alps being an absolute nightmare for invasions I don't think that the flat Netherlands can do this, maybe some with some strategies like flooding the land and using swamps, but that won't be as effective as mountains. So we'll rather see the Netherlands as part of the Saxon sphere.
I would imagine Saxony being a mix of OTL (Upper) Saxony and the Netherlands but on S T E R O I D S, Being a strong cultural, economic and maritime state. And unlike the Netherlands or OTL Saxony it has even the population to have a strong army for North-Central Europe, also unlike Prussia it isn't in a situation where they have to constantly fear being invaded thanks to their geography.
That's certainly true for the core areas of the Old Swiss Confederacy but even in the Middle Ages the Swiss were expanding to the lower areas in the north of the country. Further, both the Dutch and Belgians successfully revolted against their overlords (although yes, a 13th/14th century revolt against the Saxons is different than OTL's Dutch Revolt and Belgian Revolution).
As you note, there's swamps and flooding the land to use as defense but also quite a bit of urbanization and cities which need to be taken by sieges. These cities would be the heart of the movement against the Saxons much as there were revolts in the rich cities of Flanders against the French, Burgundians, and Austrians. I could see France passively supporting this since they'd rather not have the Saxons interfering in their realm (although they might not want to give any ideas to the Flemish).
Although I suppose the Hollanders and other Dutch weren't as wealthy in the Middle Ages as they would be later, but it's probably possible to have that area be wealthier in the Middle Ages (perhaps thanks to Saxon policies, even if it isn't like Dutch Golden Age wealthy or as rich as Ghent and other cities were) and in any case, the Swiss certainly weren't wealthy.