WI the CP controlled Black Sea

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BooNZ

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I recently read in the opening days of the WWI it was seriously suggested (by both the Germans and from within A-H), that elements of the A-H fleet should sail for Constantinople. As I understand it, the A-H fleet was not immediately ready for the journey and there was some concern regarding the whereabouts of the French fleet in the Med. Abandoning the Adriatic did not appear to be a deal breaker.

So, what if say 3 A-H dreadnaughts and 3 armoured crusiers joined the Goeben in Constantinople? How would CP control of the Black Sea impact on the 1914 politics of Bulgaria and Romania? How would it impact on the war in the Caucasus and would it influence the planning for Gallipoli. Would those ships be missed in the Adriatic? Feel free to tweak scenario.
 

Zheng He

Does control of the Black Sea really buy them anything or is it sufficient to simply own the cork for the bottle? Could the enough amphibious capability be developed in order to stage a viable invasion of the Crimea?
 

oofo

The Germans originally wanted the Ottomans to land troops at Odessa, rather than just bombard it with the two cruisers.
 

raharris1973

oofo said:
The Germans originally wanted the Ottomans to land troops at Odessa, rather than just bombard it with the two cruisers.
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sound like a way to get the forces committed killed real fast....although it will alarm the Russians and cause them to overreact. A consequence might be the Russians committing more of their war effort against the Ottomans.
 

BooNZ

Banned
oofo said:
The Germans originally wanted the Ottomans to land troops at Odessa, rather than just bombard it with the two cruisers.
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raharris1973 said:
sound like a way to get the forces committed killed real fast....although it will alarm the Russians and cause them to overreact. A consequence might be the Russians committing more of their war effort against the Ottomans.
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OTL I would have thought the Russian Black Sea fleet with its assortment of pre-dreadnaughts would have been a sufficient deterrent to any amphibious ambitions. However, in this scenario the CP should have control of the Sea, although Ottoman sea lift capacity is a bit questionable.

The possibility of an amphibious operation or better supplied incursion through the Caucasus almost certainly means the Russians will be holding back an army or more from the front, although with the battle of attrition that developed in the winter of 1914/15 with A-H is that a bad thing?
 

BooNZ

Banned
Zheng He said:
Does control of the Black Sea really buy them anything or is it sufficient to simply own the cork for the bottle? Could the enough amphibious capability be developed in order to stage a viable invasion of the Crimea?
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The most significant thing control of the Black Sea might achieve is the early entrance of Bulgaria or even Romania - I'm not sure of the likelihood of this happening, but the early entry of Bulgaria and thereby the early exit of Serbia would be very significant in my opinion.
 

Zheng He

BooNZ said:
The most significant thing control of the Black Sea might achieve is the early entrance of Bulgaria or even Romania - I'm not sure of the likelihood of this happening, but the early entry of Bulgaria and thereby the early exit of Serbia would be very significant in my opinion.
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Fair enough...
 

BooNZ

Banned
miketr said:
Ottoman Empire had no dry dock big enough to take a dreadnought so long term upkeep and reapirs become an issue.
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True that, but I expect if those ships have not made a difference before needing an overhaul, they might as well stay in the Adriatic.
 

Galba Otho Vitelius

Though this is not well known, the Goeben was a big factor in the Gallipoli campaign historically by limiting options for the British and the French, and if more CP dreadnoughts had been present the whole thing would not have been attempted. The Russians in 1916 did a successful amphibious attack against Trebizond which turned out to have no impact on the war whatsoever. The Adriatic was a strategic dead end. No Gallipoli campaign might have butterflies but I don't think anything else in this scenario would.
 

Zheng He

No Gallipoli campaign might have butterflies but I don't think anything else in this scenario would.

Churchill doesn't get fired for starters...
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Donor
Well, if this combined force brought the Russian fleet to battle and sank it, then yes maybe.

Just having a stronger navy means nothing unless you can enforce control.

The problem in the Adriatic is that the Italians and French would feel more bold, able to enforce a closer blockade of A-H coasts. Not too close to be attacked by torpedo boats but with the knowledge that any A-H fleet would now be outclassed and sunk, it's a thing

What might be interesting is if the Dardanelles operation does go ahead but the whole CP fleet sorties out - but then it will run into the Queen Elizabeth which outclasses every single of their dreadnoughts?
 

Karelian

The Ottoman lines against the Russian Caucasus front would be easier hold without the amphibious landings that the Russians repeatedly used to bypass them in OTL.

Then again the Russian strategy to attack the Ottoman coal shipments would most likely succeed in immobilizing a larger CP fleet, as they had practically succeeded to do so by the time Bulgaria joined the war in OTL.
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Donor
Mikestone8 said:
Does no Gallipoli imply no Salonika either?
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Yes.

It's POSSIBLE that no Dardanelles might mean a landing at Alexandretta, in order to cut Turkish lines of communication with the rest of their empire.

But nobody was considering sending Allied forces to Salonika before Gallipoli, or if they were there was no way the high commands would have agreed to this dispersal of forces.
 

Mikestone8

Grey Wolf said:
It's POSSIBLE that no Dardanelles might mean a landing at Alexandretta, in order to cut Turkish lines of communication with the rest of their empire.
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Assuming that the forces at Alexandretta had any better luck pushing inland than the ones at Gallipoli did.
 
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