WI : Soviet Embassy in Iran Stormed (1979)

Part of the group that met to discuss the storming of the American embassy in Iran advocated storming the Soviet embassy.

The next attempt to seize the American Embassy was planned for September 1979 by Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, a student at the time. He consulted with the heads of the Islamic associations of Tehran's main universities, including the University of Tehran, Sharif University of Technology, Amirkabir University of Technology (Polytechnic of Tehran), and Iran University of Science and Technology. They named their group Muslim Student Followers of the Imam's Line.

Asgharzadeh later said there were five students at the first meeting, two of whom wanted to target the Soviet Embassy because the USSR was "a Marxist and anti-God regime". Two others, Mohsen Mirdamadi and Habibolah Bitaraf, supported Asgharzadeh's chosen target: the United States. "Our aim was to object against the American government by going to their embassy and occupying it for several hours," Asgharzadeh said. "Announcing our objections from within the occupied compound would carry our message to the world in a much more firm and effective way."[37] Mirdamadi told an interviewer, "We intended to detain the diplomats for a few days, maybe one week, but no more."[38] Masoumeh Ebtekar, the spokeswoman for the Iranian students during the crisis, said that those who rejected Asgharzadeh's plan did not participate in the subsequent events.[39].


What if the group had succeeded in having the Soviet embassy selected as the target to be stormed, or broken away to storm it on their own?


 
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Iran is getting invaded or bombed to smithereens
Probably not, because the Soviets haven't yet invaded Afghanistan. But on the other hand, they already see it as a major concern. Some kind of retaliation is still unavoidable, but maybe the USSR waits until Saddam starts the war and then supplies him with even more weapons and military advisors.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Khomeini will literally regret it

Because if this happens, it is certain that the Soviet army will move its army to invade Iran and this will lead to replacing the invasion of Afghanistan (the Soviets were already suspicious of Khomeini) with the invasion of Iran

The fact that the Soviets had no problem with extreme brutality would lead to the death of a large number of Iranians

The problem is that the Islamic Republic burned its bridges with everyone early, so no one will support them (Iraq and Afghanistan will invade Iran to help the Soviets)

America will not support the Soviets, but it will not help a regime already hostile to them

Therefore, Iran will become the alternative Afghanistan, with the loss of a huge number of lands and people

(Iranian Azerbaijan will be annexed by the Soviets, Khorasan divided between Afghanistan and the Soviets, Ahwaz for Iraq, Iranian Baluchistan for Afghanistan and Hormozgan for Oman)

And they will become in a cycle of instability to this day

He would end up with Khomeini hanged by the Iranians themselves if the Soviets didn't
 
Probably not, because the Soviets haven't yet invaded Afghanistan. But on the other hand, they already see it as a major concern. Some kind of retaliation is still unavoidable, but maybe the USSR waits until Saddam starts the war and then supplies him with even more weapons and military advisors.
The only reason we didn’t fuck up Iran is because the US government actually cared about saving the American hostages. I guarantee you that the Soviet government would have no problem sacrificing the lives of the hostages to punish the Islamic republic for attacking them
 
The only reason we didn’t fuck up Iran is because the US government actually cared about saving the American hostages. I guarantee you that the Soviet government would have no problem sacrificing the lives of the hostages to punish the Islamic republic for attacking them
Yeah, no. The US "didn't fuck up Iran" because even after the hostage crisis there was no interest for another Vietnam-like war in the US. Even in 1991 there were major concerns regarding the Gulf War, 12 years later.

The USSR and the US both didn't have big concerns when it came to killing civilians to set an example. But the USSR knows two invasions at once are stretching it's resources too thin. And in Afghanistan they "just" have to prop up an already existing government apparatus. In Iran on the other hand they would have to fight a successful revolution which wouldn't roll over like Czechoslovakia in 1968.
 
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Yeah, no. The US "didn't fuck up Iran" because even after the hostage crisis there was no interest for another Vietnam-like war in the US. Even in 1991 there were major concerns regarding the Gulf War, 12 years later
Fucking up Iran isn’t mutually exclusive to invading them. The US or USSR are perfectly capable of conducting bombing runs and mining harbors of Iran to make the Iranians miserable especially after Iraq invades Iran
 
Fucking up Iran isn’t mutually exclusive to invading them. The US or USSR are perfectly capable of conducting bombing runs and mining harbors of Iran to make the Iranians miserable especially after Iraq invades Iran
But what do these bombing runs achieve? Foreign policy isn't kneejerk revenge most of the times. Better to wait for the moment and make them pay later. And it's not like the Iran-Iraq-war isn't on the horizon.
 
It’s not going to end well for the students, that’s certain. Invading Iran could be a little overreacting but I suspect the Teheran postal system is going to receive some strange and sinister boxes…
 
An old post of mine:

***

Why I doubt this had any real chance of happening:

(1) It seems to have been very much a minority view among the students and (according to Bowden) was only raised by--at most--two students who opposed the US embassy occupation in the early stage of planning. The original stimulus of the occupation was after all the US allegedly plotting to restore the Shah:

"The plan was the brainchild of three young men, Ibrahim Asgharzadeh, an engineering student from Stead Sharif University, Mohsen Mirdamadi from Amir Kabir University, and Habibullah Bitaraf from Technical University. Asgharzadeh was the first to suggest it They would storm the hated U.S. embassy, a symbol of Western imperial domination of Iran, occupy it for three days, and from it issue a series of communiques that would explain Iran's grievances against America, beginning with the overthrow of Mohammed Mossadeq in 1953 and decades of support for the shah, now a wanted man in Iran accused of looting the nation's treasure and torturing and killing thousands. America's imperialist designs had not ended when the shah fled Iran the previous February. The criminal tyrant had recently been allowed to fly to America on the pretense of need-ing medical treatment and was being sheltered there with his stolen fortune. America was stirring up political opposition to the imam, instigating ethnic uprisings in the various enclaves that made up the border regions of their country, and had recently begun secretly collaborating with the provisional government to undermine the revolution. A clandestine meeting in Algiers between secular members of the provisional government and White House National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski had been revealed to dramatic effect in Tehran. All of it added up to only one thing in the students' eyes: America was determined to hang on to its colony and restore the shah to his throne. The danger was pressing. The provisional government had sold out; it was nothing more than a group of old men wedded to Western decadence bent on tamping down the ardor of the Islamist uprising. One thing the revolution had taught the students was the folly of waiting for something to happen. They had seen the fruits of bold, direct action. Seizing the embassy would stop the American plot in its tracks and would force the provisional government to show its hand. Any move against the heroic embassy occupiers would expose acting Prime Minister Mehdi Bazargan and his administration as American stooges. The students believed that if they did not act soon to expose him if his govern-ment weathered its first year, then the United States would have its hooks back in Iran for good, and their dream of sweeping, truly revolutionary change would die.

"When Asgharzadeh had proposed the move [seizure of the US embassy] two weeks earlier at a meeting of an umbrella activist group called Strengthen the Unity, it was opposed by two students, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from Tarbiat Modarres University and Mohammed Ali Seyyedinejad from Elm-o-Sanat University. Both preferred targeting the Soviet embassy instead. Asgharzadeh, Mirdamadi, and Bitaraf voted them down and then had expanded their planning cell by inviting activists from various local schools, including Hashemi, Abbas Abdi, Reza Siafullahi, and Mohammad Naimipoor, all young men experienced with street demonstrations and organizing. These Brethren were both students and members of the fledgling intelligence services. All of these men, including Ahmadinejad and Seyyedinejad, eventually joined ranks behind the seizure of the American embassy...."

https://books.google.com/books?id=5m0kyPc18l4C&pg=PA9

So the whole motive of embassy-occupation was clearly tied to US, not Soviet actions. For all its atheism, the Soviet Union could not be the focus of anger the way the US was; it had not restored the Shah in 1953, it had not provided him decades worth of support, and had not recently admitted him. (Of course its conduct in Afghanistan was disturbing, but remember that the Soviet invasion did not take place until a few months later.) The idea of occupying the Soviet embassy was at most proposed by two students who opposed the US embassy occupation. (That one of them later became president of Iran is of course true, but says little about his power in 1979...)

(2) But did even Seyyedinejad and Ahmadinejad propose to occupy the Soviet embassy? Seyyedinejad at least was later to claim that his own opposition (as well as Ahmadinejad's) to occupying the US embassy was based simply on Khomeini having warned against lawless acts against symbols of the old regime. And without exactly confirming or denying Ahmadinejad's advocacy of a Soviet embassy occupation, Seyyedinejad suggests that Ahmadinejad's militantly anti-Soviet attitude was unusual among the student movement as a whole and a product of the right-wing atmosphere at Elm-o-Sanat University:

"Several sources, including the former security official Hajjarian, said Ahmadinejad believed then that the Soviet embassy, not the US embassy, should be taken. ‘Ahmadinejad believed that the great Satan is the Soviet Union and that America was the smaller Satan,’ Hajjarian said. The other student leader who, along with Ahmadinejad, had opposed the takeover of the US embassy in the initial planning meeting of the student leaders was a young man known as Mohammad Ali Seyyedinejad.22 Years later in a newspaper interview Seyyedinejad said that he and Ahmadinejad had opposed the plan on the grounds that Ayatollah Khomeini had banned lawless actions against targets that were deemed to be connected to the previous regime. ‘A little earlier, the Imam had said all attacks against the offices and assets of capitalists, like hotels, had to stop. And if there had to be an expropriation [of an asset], it had to be done according to the law,’ he said, almost a year before Ahmadinejad had taken over as president. ‘In that meeting we told others that these kinds of actions were being carried out by groups who were in opposition to the government, and we should not act in a way that would confuse us with the opposition groups.’ 23 As for whether Ahmadinejad was in favour of storming the Soviet embassy, as had been suggested, Seyyedinejad said, ‘You must have in mind that Ahmadinejad was at the Elm-o-Sanat University which was generally very right-wing and anti-left … and anti Soviet.’" Kasra Naji, Ahmadinejad: The Secret History of Iran's Radical Leader. https://epdf.pub/ahmadinejad-the-se...der3f87d25f1cce96a24de1b1d0fea1e63247916.html

For confirmation of the unusually right-wing nature of the Elm-o-sant University students and of Ahmadinejad's initial objections to the US embassy occupation (whether or not he advocated occupying the Soviet embassy) see Michael Axworthy, Revolutionary Iran: A History of the Islamic Republic, p. 371:

"It was suggested after he became president that Ahmadinejad was one of the students involved in the hostage crisis (and some former hostages even identified him from photographs), but in fact, although he was one of the most forthright student activists at his university at that time, and had dealings with wider student organizations involved in revolutionary activities, Elm-o-Sanat was the only one of the five Tehran universities that did not participate in the hostage-taking. Being more inclined to the religious right than the left-inclined students at the other universities, the students of Elm-o-Sanat, like Ahmadinejad, tended to come from humbler backgrounds. Some have suggested that Ahmadinejad was more in favour of occupying the Soviet embassy, seeing the communist Russians as a greater threat than America; alternatively that he took seriously an injunction from Khomeini not to take part in provocative actions. It seems quite likely that once the occupation of the embassy began, he regretted that he had not got involved, but the students in the embassy were quite jealous of their prize at the time and wary of outside involvement in any case...." https://books.google.com/books?id=XYoeAAAAQBAJ&pg=PA371

(In fact, I wonder if Ahmadinejad, if he did advocate occupying the Soviet embassy. did so not because he seriously expected it to be adopted by the students from other universities, but as a sort of reductio ad absurdam of the occupation of the US embassy. "well, if we're going to occupy embassies, why not the Soviet one?")

(3) Anyway, the most I can see is some right-wing students at Elm-o-Sanat (including Ahmadinejad?) trying to occupy the Soviet embassy. But even if they succeeded in doing so, I am pretty sure Khomeini would quickly order them to leave, and seeing their isolation, they would agree. Khomeini's immediate concern was with the US, and he shared the general view of the students at the other universities that the provisional government was too friendly to the West, so he seized on the US embassy occupation as a chance to remove allegedly pro-western officials. There was no similar motivation for him to move at once against the Soviets. Yes, he strongly disliked atheistic Communism, yes he would later brutally repress the Tudeh (Communist) party but that was not his immediate priority, and was simply not worth the risks and complications.
 
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But what do these bombing runs achieve? Foreign policy isn't kneejerk revenge most of the times. Better to wait for the moment and make them pay later. And it's not like the Iran-Iraq-war isn't on the horizon.
The bombings were they to kill Khomeini and other leaders of the Islamic Revolution would achieve much. As others have said, another advantage is that it would soften Iran up for an invasion. On the other hand, selected bombings with a campaign of assassinating the leaders of the Islamic Revolution could open the door for a new revolution, a communist one, and this would not necessitate an invasion.
 

kholieken

Banned
The bombings were they to kill Khomeini and other leaders of the Islamic Revolution would achieve much. As others have said, another advantage is that it would soften Iran up for an invasion. On the other hand, selected bombings with a campaign of assassinating the leaders of the Islamic Revolution could open the door for a new revolution, a communist one, and this would not necessitate an invasion.
These didn't work. Bunker exist. Air defence exist. Simply hiding leader location works. And succession. Assassination is bad foreign policy that never worked.

And such large-scale bombing campaign would mean ground air base that need defending, pilot captured and death, and destruction of air defence (which cause tens of thousands civilian collateral damage). It de facto war and invasion. There are no successful, clean, air-only campaign.
 
Part of the group that met to discuss the storming of the American embassy in Iran advocated storming the Soviet embassy.

What if the group had succeeded in having the Soviet embassy selected as the target to be stormed, or broken away to storm it on their own?
The USSR (unlike the USA) shares a land border with Iran, one which they have already rolled across in WWII. The Iranian students get their country invaded, full stop.
 

Geon

Donor
Khomeini will literally regret it

Because if this happens, it is certain that the Soviet army will move its army to invade Iran and this will lead to replacing the invasion of Afghanistan (the Soviets were already suspicious of Khomeini) with the invasion of Iran

The fact that the Soviets had no problem with extreme brutality would lead to the death of a large number of Iranians

The problem is that the Islamic Republic burned its bridges with everyone early, so no one will support them (Iraq and Afghanistan will invade Iran to help the Soviets)

America will not support the Soviets, but it will not help a regime already hostile to them

Therefore, Iran will become the alternative Afghanistan, with the loss of a huge number of lands and people

(Iranian Azerbaijan will be annexed by the Soviets, Khorasan divided between Afghanistan and the Soviets, Ahwaz for Iraq, Iranian Baluchistan for Afghanistan and Hormozgan for Oman)

And they will become in a cycle of instability to this day

He would end up with Khomeini hanged by the Iranians themselves if the Soviets didn't
The U.S. would have to respond to a Soviet move into Iran. First, it gives the Soviets access to Iranian oil. Secondly it gives them access to the other oil rich Arabian states. Third, it allows them to base their naval forces in Iranian ports and easily block the Straits of Hormuz any time they wish.

None of this was acceptable to the U.S. We would respond. How things would go from there has been war gamed extensively by professionals and amateurs with results ranging from a divided Iran to World War III.
 

ahmedali

Banned
The U.S. would have to respond to a Soviet move into Iran. First, it gives the Soviets access to Iranian oil. Secondly it gives them access to the other oil rich Arabian states. Third, it allows them to base their naval forces in Iranian ports and easily block the Straits of Hormuz any time they wish.

None of this was acceptable to the U.S. We would respond. How things would go from there has been war gamed extensively by professionals and amateurs with results ranging from a divided Iran to World War III.
Iran is divided, and the Soviets, despite their brutality, were sane not to provoke America

Add that America does not want the help of Khomeini, who is hostile to them

(Vietnam still affects the psyche of Americans, so I don't see direct intervention or World War III)

Regarding oil, Iranian oil has become Iraqi

(Most of the Iranian oil is in Khuzestan, which Iraq will take)

Actually, I doubt that the Soviets will reach the Persian Gulf because Iran will collapse completely before they reach there
 
The U.S. would have to respond to a Soviet move into Iran. First, it gives the Soviets access to Iranian oil. Secondly it gives them access to the other oil rich Arabian states. Third, it allows them to base their naval forces in Iranian ports and easily block the Straits of Hormuz any time they wish.

None of this was acceptable to the U.S. We would respond. How things would go from there has been war gamed extensively by professionals and amateurs with results ranging from a divided Iran to World War III.
Wrong. Outside of an invasion of another NATO country the US does not have to do anything regarding foreign interventions. I find the idea that a democratic country would choose to come to the aid of a rogue state, that stormed one of it's embassies and is holding their people hostage and probably torturing them, risking WW3 into the bargain, just because some Foreign Policy Experts say that it's necessary, to be borderline ludicrous.
Also the USSR unlike it's modern day counterpart, was usually quite smart regarding the PR game so they might very well do this as well: Start the invasion in conjunction with two Spetznaz assaults at both embassies, then immedietly fly all rescued US personnel home with no strings or demands, after giving them medical treatment.
 
I doubt you would have Soviet Soldiers washing their shoes in the Indian ocean. At worst the Soviets would occupy Iranian Azerbaijan and at a minimum pour more support for Saddam.
 
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