WI: single caucasus campaign of Timur, what will a unified Georgia mean for the region

This is strictly speaking, a butterfly in my TL where Timur has only one Caucasus campaign after returning from vassalizing Golden horde. His west asian campaign such as those against Mamlukes and Ottomans are also butterflied. A Georgia that is not punching bag of Timur in this time has a lot of potential. I'm wondering how much population of caucasus will remain Christians. How much does Georgia manage to expand, keeping in mind that it has muslim powers surrounding it( Tatars, Ottomans and Persia)
 
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They'd still have to repel the Turkmen invasions of Aq Qoyunlu/Qara Qoyunlu. But if they aren't as devastated by Timur's campaign, they'd probably stand a better chance at avoiding the damage that caused the fragmentation of the Georgian state, but I'd expect the victories to be costly and take a generation or two to recover from, and at that point Georgia is torn between the Ottomans and Safavids, just like OTL. And given you have the Golden Horde surviving, that adds another potential threat.

Timur more or less destroyed Christianity in the Caucasus outside of Alania/Ossetia, and probably permanently destroyed the government institutions (the Mongols had already done a lot of damage) that led to the familiar tribal nature of Chechnya. But Christianity was never deeply rooted (outside of Alania), and even before Timur, the Lakhs and some nearby nations had already converted to Islam. Being surrounded by Muslim nations gives a real incentive for the peoples of the region to convert. Conversion was mainly the work of Sufi orders, so the Georgians would need successful missionaries and churchmen in these reasons to keep the incipient cultural sphere they had together.
 
But Christianity was never deeply rooted (outside of Alania), and even before Timur, the Lakhs and some nearby nations had already converted to Islam.
I could sense that even with Butterflies Chechnya ( Simsir), Dagestan( Shumkhalate and Chunsack) are already muslims. Durdjukia( Ingush) are 50/50. Provided that Tatars don't try to grab Alania due to attentions elsewhere, how are the circassians affected? I'd presume that still a number of them convert to Islam , possibly those tribes living near the edge of Golden horde territory like Zhaney, Kabardian and Temirgoy.
 
Probably would end up getting crushed by the Ottomans around the 1500s. Georgia would have been stronger but the Turks at this point were neigh unstoppable, and the Georgians would also be faced with invasions by the Safavids to the East and possibly Tatars to the North. Look at Hungary, they were a strong, centralized, and wealthy state comparable to the Georgians, and the Turks were still able to wear them out with constant raiding and incursions until they finally collapsed.
 
Probably would end up getting crushed by the Ottomans around the 1500s. Georgia would have been stronger but the Turks at this point were neigh unstoppable, and the Georgians would also be faced with invasions by the Safavids to the East and possibly Tatars to the North. Look at Hungary, they were a strong, centralized, and wealthy state comparable to the Georgians, and the Turks were still able to wear them out with constant raiding and incursions until they finally collapsed.
I see. So the only option left for Georgians is to play these 3 powers against each other. But it is a dangerous game and if they tilt to one too much they will be raiding real estate for the other two.

So Georgians can only expand west until Batumi, south until Alverdi and pray that the Golden horde take mercy and just annex Alania( circassia)?
 
I see. So the only option left for Georgians is to play these 3 powers against each other. But it is a dangerous game and if they tilt to one too much they will be raiding real estate for the other two.

So Georgians can only expand west until Batumi, south until Alverdi and pray that the Golden horde take mercy and just annex Alania( circassia)?
Pretty much, think if they stick to the Caucasus mountains the Georgians might be able to be enough of a hassle for the Turks and Persians that they let them maintain their autonomy as Orthodox vassal states, similar to how Romania was treated. This would mean Christianity has a larger presence in the Caucasus.
 
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