So WI after Mary marries Philip, she gets pregnant and gives birth to a healthy boy. How does Europe react. What do the english nobility do? Could we see a union between england and Spain or a succestion war? THoughts?
WI Queen Mary and King Philip had a son
- Thread starter Fredrick II Barbarossa
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The English would strongly oppose any union. The marriage treaty specified that any union of the crowns would only be for the joint life of Philip and Mary; Philip wouldn't even get to keep the crown (as William III did) if he survived his wife. What's more, Philip already had a son Charles by a previous marriage; the treaty specified Charles would inherit the crowns of all the Spanish realms but not England.
Mary and Philip's child would inherit England and the Low Countries, making England a ridiculously more powerful player in European players. Calais almost certainly wouldn't be lost.
I wonder if, with a child by Mary, Philip would consent to Don Carlos marrying Mary Stuart, consolidating Habsburg hold on the British Isles and securing the English succession favourably whatever way things turned out.
What happens when Don Carlos dies? I'm guessing Philip and Mary's child becomes heir to all of Philip's domains.
I wonder if, with a child by Mary, Philip would consent to Don Carlos marrying Mary Stuart, consolidating Habsburg hold on the British Isles and securing the English succession favourably whatever way things turned out.
What happens when Don Carlos dies? I'm guessing Philip and Mary's child becomes heir to all of Philip's domains.
The outcome will depend on the answers to the following questions:
-Who raises the son of Philip and Mary? Most likely a Catholic, maybe a Spanish though I would suspect more of a trustworthy English. This wouldn't go well with the Protestant Parliament.
-The Regency: if we keep Mary's death OTL, her son won't be older than 4 so he will need regency. Parliament won't want of Philip, especially if he still pushes for his rights as King-Consort: they were already reluctant of him becoming Mary's husband.
-Elizabeth: what does she do in such a situation? Does she become a leading Protestant and opponent of her nephew? Or does she become a strong supporter of the previous?
-Who raises the son of Philip and Mary? Most likely a Catholic, maybe a Spanish though I would suspect more of a trustworthy English. This wouldn't go well with the Protestant Parliament.
-The Regency: if we keep Mary's death OTL, her son won't be older than 4 so he will need regency. Parliament won't want of Philip, especially if he still pushes for his rights as King-Consort: they were already reluctant of him becoming Mary's husband.
-Elizabeth: what does she do in such a situation? Does she become a leading Protestant and opponent of her nephew? Or does she become a strong supporter of the previous?
Yes, Philip does indeed have another son, but remember that Don Carlos died at 23 in 1568. If this isn't butterflied away, the son of Philip and Mary would technically be the heir of all their possessions. Of course, I doubt Philip would want such a thing. After Mary's death, he would probably remarry to have another son and split his possessions. The only question that comes to my mind: What of the Netherlands in such a partition? England would be able to defend them better than Spain.Evan said:
Philip and Mary's marriage treaty reserved the Netherlands for their children, so there's no dispute there. As for Spain, I'm guessing a younger son raised in Spain would be preferred to the English-born heir, unless the newfound Prince of Asturias ditches England for his Spanish realms and leaves England in the hands of a regent.
Elizabeth would most likely be forced into marriage with the Duke of Savoy or some other Habsburg lackey.
Cardinal Reginald Pole is the most likely regent for Mary's young son; if he dies on time, then I'm guessing she might go for a joint regency council of both Spanish and English nobility and clergy.
Elizabeth would most likely be forced into marriage with the Duke of Savoy or some other Habsburg lackey.
Cardinal Reginald Pole is the most likely regent for Mary's young son; if he dies on time, then I'm guessing she might go for a joint regency council of both Spanish and English nobility and clergy.
Source for England getting the Low Countries? The treaty seems to say otherwise (though it's somewhat dense; I might've missed something). Calais was actually lost during Mary's reign when she was fighting by Philip's side against France, so I don't see how that'd change here.
Great point... According to the treaty, he would. That might change, of course.
Strange that (the treaty), according to this Parliament approved a treaty which reserved the Netherlands as the inheritance of their issue. I remember when Philip proposed marriage to Elizabeth it was the caveat that their marriage treaty would differ in that respect (ie, Netherlands would go to Carlos).
From the State Papers, it seems Elizabeth came fairly close to regaining Calais, her hand ultimately being forced because of her dire financial situation and the fear of losing the Spanish alliance/the troubles of coordinating three-way negotiations. Certainly the risk of Spain and France making peace and leaving England outside alone was a very real one. Even so there was talk of a double marriage between Elizabeth's oldest son and daughter with a prince and princess of France to resolve the many years of unpaid French arrears, Elizabeth's title to the French crown and possession of Calais.
With a son of Philip and Mary, the Spanish can be counted on to hold up their side of the bargain, allowing England to hold out a while longer and force the French to give back Calais. Plus, continued Anglo-Spanish cooperation is a certainty and the French are in a far weaker position (no hope of separating England and Spain).
I've found a different text here, in the Spanish State Papers of 1554, that confirm that Netherlands was going to England if Mary and Philip had a son or even a daughter: http://www.british-history.ac.uk/report.aspx?compid=88534 .
Look at the second text of January 1st:
Treaty Of Marriage between Philip, Prince Of Spain, and Mary, Queen Of England.
....
"The males or females to be born of the marriage are to succeed to their mother's right to the kingdom of England according to the English laws that regulate the succession; but as for the possessions to be left behind him by the Prince of Spain, first of all, all right to the kingdoms of Spain is reserved to Don Carlos, eldest son of the Prince, and his heirs, as also all right to the two Sicilies and their dependencies, the Duchy of Milan and the other territories of Lombardy and the rest of Italy, by whatever title held, with an obligation to pay the aforesaid dower of forty thousand livres de gros. To these dominions the children issuing from this marriage shall have no claim as long as the said Don Carlos or his legitimate descendants live; but if they fail and become extinct, the eldest son of this marriage is to succeed in them as well as the duchies, counties and lordships belonging to the Emperor in Burgundy and Lower Germany. And if Don Carlos or his descendants live, and a male heir is born of this marriage, Don Carlos and his descendents shall be excluded from the patrimonial dominions of Lower Germany and Burgundy, which in that case are to devolve upon the eldest son of this marriage. The other sons and daughters of this marriage, however, are to be supplied with suitable portions and dowers in England and the dominions in Lower Germany and Burgundy, and are to have no claim whatever, either the first-born or any other children born of this marriage, to the kingdoms of Spain or any other of the dominions reserved to Don Carlos and his heirs;
And if no male issue, but female issue only, is the fruit of this marriage, then the eldest daughter shall succeed in the dominions of Lower Germany and Burgundy, provided that she does not choose for her husband, without her brother's consent, a man who is a native neither of England nor of Lower Germany, but if this condition is not complied with the right to the dominions of Lower Germany and Burgundy shall return to Don Carlos and his heirs, though in that event the said daughter and the other daughters issuing from this marriage shall be provided with suitable marriage-portions levied on the Spanish and German dominions; and if Don Carlos and his issue fail, and none but female issue proceeds from this marriage, then the eldest daughter shall succeed in Lower Germany, Burgundy, Spain and all the other dominions, according to the particular laws of each;"
Look at the second text of January 1st:
Treaty Of Marriage between Philip, Prince Of Spain, and Mary, Queen Of England.
....
"The males or females to be born of the marriage are to succeed to their mother's right to the kingdom of England according to the English laws that regulate the succession; but as for the possessions to be left behind him by the Prince of Spain, first of all, all right to the kingdoms of Spain is reserved to Don Carlos, eldest son of the Prince, and his heirs, as also all right to the two Sicilies and their dependencies, the Duchy of Milan and the other territories of Lombardy and the rest of Italy, by whatever title held, with an obligation to pay the aforesaid dower of forty thousand livres de gros. To these dominions the children issuing from this marriage shall have no claim as long as the said Don Carlos or his legitimate descendants live; but if they fail and become extinct, the eldest son of this marriage is to succeed in them as well as the duchies, counties and lordships belonging to the Emperor in Burgundy and Lower Germany. And if Don Carlos or his descendants live, and a male heir is born of this marriage, Don Carlos and his descendents shall be excluded from the patrimonial dominions of Lower Germany and Burgundy, which in that case are to devolve upon the eldest son of this marriage. The other sons and daughters of this marriage, however, are to be supplied with suitable portions and dowers in England and the dominions in Lower Germany and Burgundy, and are to have no claim whatever, either the first-born or any other children born of this marriage, to the kingdoms of Spain or any other of the dominions reserved to Don Carlos and his heirs;
And if no male issue, but female issue only, is the fruit of this marriage, then the eldest daughter shall succeed in the dominions of Lower Germany and Burgundy, provided that she does not choose for her husband, without her brother's consent, a man who is a native neither of England nor of Lower Germany, but if this condition is not complied with the right to the dominions of Lower Germany and Burgundy shall return to Don Carlos and his heirs, though in that event the said daughter and the other daughters issuing from this marriage shall be provided with suitable marriage-portions levied on the Spanish and German dominions; and if Don Carlos and his issue fail, and none but female issue proceeds from this marriage, then the eldest daughter shall succeed in Lower Germany, Burgundy, Spain and all the other dominions, according to the particular laws of each;"
Alex Richards
Donor
Ooh. That could have interesting implications. Perhaps a concerted joint rebellion by Protestants in England and Holland? It looks like that agreement included the Franche Comte in it as part of the inheritance from Spain, so perhaps we see a decision to barter the territory (which England would find very hard to hold) with France in return for Calais and the former county of Boulogne.
It would be very interesting to see how an England with a larger Catholic minority would turn out.
It would be very interesting to see how an England with a larger Catholic minority would turn out.
Thanks Gonzaga! Great treaty, interesting the limitation on who a female heir could marry.
Was Protestantism so deep rooted by the time of Mary? I mean, most of the chief nobles/bourgeouis were already in exile on the continent, so a legitimate Catholic heir with continued Spanish/Imperial support might have a much easier time?
Would be interesting to see if the Prince of Orange and his partisans would come to play some important role in English politics or no.
Was Protestantism so deep rooted by the time of Mary? I mean, most of the chief nobles/bourgeouis were already in exile on the continent, so a legitimate Catholic heir with continued Spanish/Imperial support might have a much easier time?
Would be interesting to see if the Prince of Orange and his partisans would come to play some important role in English politics or no.
I think it was written this way to avoid any possibility that such female heir could marry a French. After all, a France that has the Burgundian inheritance and England would make the Habsburgs suffer collective heart attacks.
Just an idea: let's assume that Mary and Philip have a child because the Queen has a better health, and she lives at least as long as her mother (so we are giving her 8 or 10 more years than IOTL), giving her enough time to impose her policies and raise her child. So, during the late 1550's and and the 1560's we have an England that is Catholic, pro-Spanish and with a Habsburg heir that probably won't change that.
Now, assuming that things go more or less the same for Mary Queen of Scots - her young husband die and she leaves France for Scotland, finding a kingdom that is becoming more and more a stronghold of Calvinism - what would be the consequences there? Would Mary Stuart turn to England in order to have support from her Mary Tudor and Philip of Spain against the Protestants that oppose her rule, and so probably cutting the alliance with France? Or such situation could force the Scottish queen to instead rely more on the Protestants?
Now, assuming that things go more or less the same for Mary Queen of Scots - her young husband die and she leaves France for Scotland, finding a kingdom that is becoming more and more a stronghold of Calvinism - what would be the consequences there? Would Mary Stuart turn to England in order to have support from her Mary Tudor and Philip of Spain against the Protestants that oppose her rule, and so probably cutting the alliance with France? Or such situation could force the Scottish queen to instead rely more on the Protestants?
I guess that will depend on Mary Stuart's relationship with her cousin Mary Tudor. However, Mary Stuart could also see asking for English help as a way to undermine Scotland's independance and keep the Auld Alliance with France. Then again, let's not forget that her Uncles are of the House of Guise, who supported the Hapsburg against the Reformation...Gonzaga said:
Anyway, the scenario is pretty much a French-screw: With Spain, England, the Netherlands, the HRE and Savoy (indirectly) under Habsburg control... This will be problematic. And if you had to this the French Religious War, the dying Valois, the Protestants Bourbons and the Archcatholic and ambitious Guises...
the civil war happens alot earlier, if phillip and mary try to break the treaty and force a union...if the child however only becomes king/queen of england, then youd still have a religious war on your hands if they try to continue to re-catholicization of england insitagated under mary & phillip...either way..its going to be bloody, unles the child has gthe sense elizabeth and james did, and realised that it was best to allow both faiths to exsist in england (they may have done so stupidily, but they tried at least)
Well, she might want to help the Guises in the French Wars of Religion, and it would mean an alliance with the Habsburgs (including England). But for that she needs to able to keep her throne, which IOTL she wasn't.
Mary Stuart might be as troublesome as she was OTL, but ITTL England would be far more receptive towards her. Certainly Philip would be wanting to scoop her up and make sure she marries pro-Habsburg. Depending on when Mary and François die, maybe even Philip II and Mary Stuart end up together - he sees in her an opportunity to secure another kingdom, separate another ally from France, a young Catholic bride to produce heirs, and she sees in him a means of securing her position in the English succession and European politics.
Definitely. That had escaped my attention
Would be interesting to see the shit hit the fan if this hypothetical Princess-Infanta did end up marrying her brother's arch-enemy.Would also be great to see the title of Infant take root in England too. Infans Angliae has a nice ring to it.
Well, she was one of the candidates considered to marry his son Don Carlos, so it wouldn't be impossible.
An Anglo-Spanish union under a Habsburg monarch... keep in mind that this child would also inherit the Portuguese throne as well. So, if they had a son, and he inherited all of both his parents' territories, you'd have...
X, King of England, France, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, both Sicilies, and Jerusalem
As per the English claim on the French throne and Philip's claim on the Kingdom of Jerusalem. I wonder if this Anglo-Spanish Habsburg monarch would feel the need to exercise his claim on the French throne, perhaps using the Huguenots as a good excuse... Would the HRE be likely to elect this monarch Emperor? How would the union of the Portuguese and Spanish colonial empires with English resources have effected the history of New World colonization?
X, King of England, France, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, both Sicilies, and Jerusalem
As per the English claim on the French throne and Philip's claim on the Kingdom of Jerusalem. I wonder if this Anglo-Spanish Habsburg monarch would feel the need to exercise his claim on the French throne, perhaps using the Huguenots as a good excuse... Would the HRE be likely to elect this monarch Emperor? How would the union of the Portuguese and Spanish colonial empires with English resources have effected the history of New World colonization?
They wouldn't be in a Union via the treaty mentioned before.
But it lays the groundwork for a potential 17th Century War of the Spanish Succession (later on of course), this time with England pressing its claim. A Catholic Habsburg Anglo-Spanish Union would be crippling to France, and would dominate the seas. You could potentially see the Anglo-Spanish expelling France from the New World at some point, and, given the union with Portugal, see one state govern the entire New World.
Speculation, of course.
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