WI Qianlong got into a tropical conquest fetish?

[raharris1973]

WI after successful completion of the Dzungar Wars in 1763, Qing Emperor committed fully and irrevocably to the conquest and absorption of Southeast Asia for his lifetime. And his successor the "cha-ching" Jiaqing Emperor had the same commitment. That gives China between 1763 and 1820 to make headway.

In OTL, Qianlong ran campaigns to either conquer or "chastise" Burma and Vietnam. He may have begun with the intent to conquer but then saved face by claiming he was merely punishing them for this or that offense, and they cooperated by resuming formal tributary status.

What if he is just absolutely determined and persistent in trying to conquer Vietnam, the Lao Kingdoms and Burma, and if he can get past them, on to Arakan, Cambodia, Siam and Malaya.

Here is a map of Southeast Asia 13 years before the effort starts:

What could he achieve in terms of conquests, and what would this be doing to the Chinese economy and society at the time.

I am content to see Qianlong succeed wildly, fail spectacularly, or anything in-between.

Would wars and occupation deteriorate the state's fiscal health and lead to an advancement of the mid-19th century rebellions to the 1790s or early 1800s, by reactions against higher taxes?

Or would recruitment of more soldiers to conquer and bureaucrats to rule and develop occupied lands employ many frustrated would-be bureaucrats who otherwise would have turned to rebellion?

Could China increase its food supply and tax base through conquests?

If Qianlong is willing and interested in buying western weapons to aid his campaigns, would he find willing sellers? Could that make western merchants less dependent on opium?

Does this expansionist policy accelerate western penetration of China and Southeast Asia, enable China to fend off western advances in the region, or have results similar to OTL?

As far as attempted conquests go, maybe Qianlong is likely to have more success if subdues the Lao Kingdoms of Luangprabang and Vientiane, and the northern Thai Kingdom of Chingmai, first. These areas are less rich and taxable (at least before development efforts) but force the Vietnamese and Burmese to spread their forces thinner.

------Additional options - what if Qianlong discovers Japanese de facto influence over Liu-chiu/Okinawa, finds it unacceptable, and campaigns to bring Okinawa under central authority and oust the Japanese completely? Or, what if he decides he want to directly absorb the Kingship of Korea directly into his domains and list of titles?

 

[GauchoBadger]

I wonder... what about the Philippines? Spaniard rule over the archipelago frequently seemed to be in trouble face the Southern Ming and the Japanese, so could the Qing manage to give them the boot?

 

[Monter]

Qianlong did invade Burma 4 times and failed, he also campaigned in Vietnam to support the falling Lê dynasty against the Nguyễn and also failed, so that's OTL.
And the Chinese already knew about the status of the Ryukyu kingdom, but fighting the Tokugawa (that was closed off and pretty much a non-threat) with no professional navy would be quite a challenge.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Qianlong did invade Burma 4 times and failed, he also campaigned in Vietnam to support the falling Lê dynasty against the Nguyễn and also failed, so that's OTL.

How about having him manage to defeat Burma in the 1760's and Vietnam in the 1780's? It seems doable.

 

[Monter]

How about having him manage to defeat Burma in the 1760's and Vietnam in the 1780's? It seems doable.

Considering he invaded Burma FOUR times I did say that isn't really doable, maybe possible but not doable.
Vietnam... I don't know, considering how he gave up and immediately tried to save face by reconciliating with Nguyễn Huệ as a new tribute it looks to me that something was preventing Qianlong from further campaigning (maybe the treasury was short), though the Qing expedition there wasn't a conquering one.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Considering he invaded Burma FOUR times I did say that isn't really doable, maybe possible but not doable.

I would say it's possible in the third or fourth attempt, if the Qing notice their previous failures and adapt accordingly. The Burmese seemed to be outnumbered all through the incursion period. Having the Qing viceroy not fall ill at the eve of the third invasion, while a difficult thing to happen, could also help.
Speculating on a Chinese Burma scenario...
Will the Qing cause genocide upon the Bamars, like they did with the Dzunghars?
If they manage to conquer Rangoon and, thus, an outlet to the Indian Ocean, how does that affect the Chinese economy?

 

[raharris1973]

I wonder if there's a way Qianlong or his successors could have preempted recruitment of rebels in mid-19th century in China and thrown them into foreign wars. Whether they win or lose not being important, just that they not be in China.

So maybe something starting with the Daoguang Emperor or his successor. European enemies by that by are probably not a good idea.

Of course another area for expansion, by any of the Qing between 1760 and 1860, could be against Khiva, Bukhara or the Kazakh Horde, just to get an uber-Xinjiang.

Will the Qing cause genocide upon the Bamars, like they did with the Dzunghars?

Are the Bamars the core Burmese nationality? I doubt genocide would be on the agenda, because because the conquest still might be accomplished in a shorter and less bitter period of wars than in the case of the Dzungars, and the Qing might never feel the same worry that these Burmese could ever threaten to unseat them in China the way that memories of Mongol history might have caused such fears. But I suppose we cannot rule it out.

I wonder... what about the Philippines?

I suppose it's possible if the Qing really put their minds to it for a couple generations. But I see it as a more difficult and risky and expensive undertaking, for probably less reward. The Philippines are further away and guarded by bigger cannons. It requires competing with Europeans in naval power. Against mainland Southeast Asians, land forces can do the job alone. Also, the Chinese might have to worry if they take the Philippines the Spanish won't keep coming the islands with their Mexican silver dollars.

 

[Monter]

Will the Qing cause genocide upon the Bamars, like they did with the Dzunghars?

Unlikely, for one the Dzungars were few in numbers (total population around 500-600,000) and mostly nomadic whereas the Bamars numbered in millions and had settler societies (easily managed and taxed), plus it is noteworthy that the Dzungar situation was exceptional, Qianlong conquered a lot of people, he didn't genocide all of them.
Also, the Bamars weren't (and aren't even today) the only ethnic group in Burma, right into the Chinese border you have the Shan tribes and in Burman proper the Kachins in the border with Assam, Chin near Bengal, Karennis in the south on the border with Siam, the Mon on the Irrawady delta and hundred of others. A interesting observation: The difficult terrain in the Yunnan-Burmese border plus guaranteed hostility with the Shan tribes may lead the Qing to realize communication by sea (on the Irrawady Delta) is far more effective, maybe establishing an ocean-going merchant marine going through the Malacca straits to facilitate communication.

Of course another area for expansion, by any of the Qing between 1760 and 1860, could be against Khiva, Bukhara or the Kazakh Horde, just to get an uber-Xinjiang.

Xinjiang was already too costly to maintain and too remote for mass campaign, I think Qianlong would leave them alone in his expansion spree.

I suppose it's possible if the Qing really put their minds to it for a couple generations. But I see it as a more difficult and risky and expensive undertaking, for probably less reward. The Philippines are further away and guarded by bigger cannons. It requires competing with Europeans in naval power. Against mainland Southeast Asians, land forces can do the job alone. Also, the Chinese might have to worry if they take the Philippines the Spanish won't keep coming the islands with their Mexican silver dollars.

Dunno, should the Qing develop a navy of sorts they can surely take it during the Revolutionary Wars (particularly during the Peninsular War).

Although such conquest spree may cause quite a burden on the Qing, remember the late Qianlong reign is also the era of Heshen.

 

[kasumigenx]

I think the Chinese would spare the Mon and Champa in their conquest of Burma and Vietnam, the chinese wanted to revive champa.

 

[raharris1973]

Qianlong did invade Burma 4 times and failed, he also campaigned in Vietnam to support the falling Lê dynasty against the Nguyễn and also failed, so that's OTL.
And the Chinese already knew about the status of the Ryukyu kingdom, but fighting the Tokugawa (that was closed off and pretty much a non-threat) with no professional navy would be quite a challenge.

Well Japan did not have a professional navy either. Get, borrow or recruit a small one, and "bam", naval superiority.

 

[raharris1973]

I think the Chinese would spare the Mon and Champa in their conquest of Burma and Vietnam, the chinese wanted to revive champa.

So the Chinese had sympathy for the Champa? Was this just the old principle of "my neighbor is my enemy, his neighbor on the other side is his enemy, and therefore my friend"?

Although such conquest spree may cause quite a burden on the Qing, remember the late Qianlong reign is also the era of Heshen.

Indeed this could be a huge fiscal burden and start causing China to have major problems quite early in the 19th century.

Or it might change the context in which Heshen postured. Maybe instead of a court eunuch, Qianlong's favorites would be generals who won land, and spendthrifts diverting money from that might not be tolerated.

If they manage to conquer Rangoon and, thus, an outlet to the Indian Ocean, how does that affect the Chinese economy?

Well the British will certainly see if they can be buying tea or selling opium there. And actually every power doing eastern trade beside Britain also.

Maybe there is a little bit more Chinese-Persian trade, as the Persians had trading relations with nearby Siam.

The Chinese will also figure out sooner that the British showing up around Macau and the people running India are the same people.

 

[kasumigenx]

So the Chinese had sympathy for the Champa? Was this just the old principle of "my neighbor is my enemy, his neighbor on the other side is his enemy, and therefore my friend"?

Yes, they did.

 

[raharris1973]

Will any area the Qing succeed in conquering become majority Han Chinese ethnically?

Will the Europeans of 1763 through 1833 be able to impact or affect what China is able or not able to do in any way?

Also, added a poll.

 

[GauchoBadger]

One thing to note: by this period, Siam is under the reign of king Taksin, who seemed to have been a very competent general. Qianlong seems bound to cross paths with him in this hypothetical conquest spree, and i'd expect a very decisive war and battle to happen between both.

 

[raharris1973]

One thing to note: by this period, Siam is under the reign of king Taksin, who seemed to have been a very competent general. Qianlong seems bound to cross paths with him in this hypothetical conquest spree, and i'd expect a very decisive war and battle to happen between both.

Interesting factor. I had not thought much about the Southeast Asian leaders.

If Qianlong is successful on the right timescale, his forces could fight an epic battle with him

In the early stages, there could be a chance that Taksin and the Chinese are on the same side, fighting against the kingdoms in the middle.

 

[Richard V]

Why though? The tropics was right next door to China. They could easily buy everything they want without the hassle of running the place. That would be like me conquering my local supermarket because I like their sandwiches.

 

[Hawkeye]

Why though? The tropics was right next door to China. They could easily buy everything they want without the hassle of running the place. That would be like me conquering my local supermarket because I like their sandwiches.

I believe Burma was a major route for opium smugglers to sell their product in China. It would benefit the Qing in the long run if they could plug that hole, but of course, this wasn't their objective in OTL as that issue was still a while off.

 

[Plebian]

China will still get destroyed by the Europeans though. Holding territory in SE Asia is real hard. Look what happened to America in the Vietnam War or France. Fighting to hold that territory is going to exhaust the Qing and later on its going to paint a huge target on China's back. The empires of Europe will declare war on China to take that territory, which leaves a China depleted by fighting resistance in SE Asia, then fighting Europeans vulnerable to conquest.

 

[raharris1973]

Why though? The tropics was right next door to China. They could easily buy everything they want without the hassle of running the place. That would be like me conquering my local supermarket because I like their sandwiches.

The hassle of running the place is actually one of the things the Qing are looking for here. Both military service and administration of occupied lands become a jobs program.

China had far too few officials and was undertaxed for the size of its population. A side effect of Qing small government was frustration by people who wanted to become officials but did not make the cut, like the guy who started the Taiping.

Building up the army and then more province and county administrations means you can have more Chinese working for you than against you. And Southeast Asia is also food surplus land with two rice crops and offers a place that failing peasants can move to and cultivate more intensely.

It is the externalizations of aggression, you keep nore if your subjects better fed and busy putting down native rebellions and bringing your order to the conquered land rather than having those people frustrated, hungry and at home starting rebellions.

 

[Vae Victus]

If China can successfully bleed out rebellious elements to die in the jungles and then later on administer/garrison the place, China can come out way ahead.

Constant fighting might keep China on her toes leading to needed innovations in military tech both land and sea. Especially if the Euros start supplying weapons to the rebels, then the Qings will need modern gear to keep em down. An ever watchful Qing that keeps abreast on technology will make for massive butterflies and considering OTL timeline was a massive China screw during this era, any change is likely for the better.

I always found it amusing how Qing's penchant for low still lead to massive ass rebellions. Lack of money to fund the bureaucracy and keeping the armed forces up to date and loyal to then squash their later rebellions.