WI Qianlong got into a tropical conquest fetish?

With a sustained expansionist program

  • China is better off than OTL's late 18th and 19th century

    Votes: 26 55.3%
  • China is worse off than OTL's late 18th and 19th century

    Votes: 17 36.2%
  • China does about the same with regard to internal order and dealing with the west compared to OTL

    Votes: 4 8.5%

  • Total voters
    47
The hassle of running the place is actually one of the things the Qing are looking for here. Both military service and administration of occupied lands become a jobs program.

China had far too few officials and was undertaxed for the size of its population. A side effect of Qing small government was frustration by people who wanted to become officials but did not make the cut, like the guy who started the Taiping.

Building up the army and then more province and county administrations means you can have more Chinese working for you than against you. And Southeast Asia is also food surplus land with two rice crops and offers a place that failing peasants can move to and cultivate more intensely.

It is the externalizations of aggression, you keep nore if your subjects better fed and busy putting down native rebellions and bringing your order to the conquered land rather than having those people frustrated, hungry and at home starting rebellions.

If that was the goal, it would be easier to just expand the bureaucracy at home.

But for the sake of this timeline, the next war Qianlong would get into is in Burma. I suppose he could have his Jesuits bring in Spanish military advisors and raise some musket regiments to storm Burma.
 
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raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
If that was the goal, it would be easier to just expand the bureaucracy at home.

I did try discussing that before.https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ter-with-a-higher-number-of-officials.394961/
The response was "mixed".

But for the sake of this timeline, the next war Qianlong would get into is in Burma. I suppose he could have his Jesuits bring in Spanish military advisors and raise some musket regiments to storm Burma.

Cool. Would the Siamese side with him or the Burmese you think?
 
Cool. Would the Siamese side with him or the Burmese you think?

Burma invaded Siam from 1765-67 and sized half the country. The only reason Siam survived was the Chinese invasion of Burma. They definitively won’t side against Qianlong. If Burma was compeletly defeated, Siam would want the west half of their country back.

If the Qing Empire vassalized Burma, they would shortly find themselves in conflict with British India. So they probably lose that vassle like they lost Nepal to the British. But earlier conflict with Britain might do the Qing Empire some good. Early warning at the very least.

Also if Qianlong decide to use the Jesuits to facilitate military advise from Europe it would lead to some interesting changes. Not only the earlier contact with Europe but the effect on the Jesuit order. France suppressed them in 1764 and Spain in 1767. That may not happen if the Jesuits were seen as key intermediaries.
 
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raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Burma invaded Siam from 1765-67 and sized half the country. The only reason Siam survived was the Chinese invasion of Burma. They definitively won’t side against Qianlong. If Burma was compeletly defeated, Siam would want the west half of their country back.

If the Qing Empire vassalized Burma, they would shortly find themselves in conflict with British India. So they probably lose that vassle like they lost Nepal to the British. But earlier conflict with Britain might do the Qing Empire some good. Early warning at the very least.

Also if Qianlong decide to use the Jesuits to facilitate military advise from Europe it would lead to some interesting changes. Not only the earlier contact with Europe but the effect on the Jesuit order. France suppressed them in 1764 and Spain in 1767. That may not happen if the Jesuits were seen as key intermediaries.

So the first Anglo-Chinese war starts in Burma rather than China itself. I wonder when it would start, when the British would find Chinese involvement in Burma "excessive". And if the war starts over Burma, given Britain's naval capacity, I wonder if it spreads to the China coast.
 
So the first Anglo-Chinese war starts in Burma rather than China itself. I wonder when it would start, when the British would find Chinese involvement in Burma "excessive". And if the war starts over Burma, given Britain's naval capacity, I wonder if it spreads to the China coast.

Britain had its hands tied during the Napoleonic Wars. It waged the First Anglo-Burmese War in the 1820s. Maybe the Chinese comes to the aid of their vassal, which could then become an Anglo-Chinese war. Then again China did nothing for Nepal when they got into a war with Britain.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
How's this map for a representation of what things are like after successful Chinese campaigns in Southeast Asia for the 25 years from 1765 to 1790?
The color scheme shows China expanding at the expense of states on its southern border, Vietnam, Burma and Lao states, while allying with Siam and Cambodia to help crush the states between them and China, thus in this phase at least Siam and Cambodia are not being subjugated but instead expanding.

Southeast after Chinese invasions 1764-1790.gif
 
How's this map for a representation of what things are like after successful Chinese campaigns in Southeast Asia for the 25 years from 1765 to 1790?
The color scheme shows China expanding at the expense of states on its southern border, Vietnam, Burma and Lao states, while allying with Siam and Cambodia to help crush the states between them and China, thus in this phase at least Siam and Cambodia are not being subjugated but instead expanding.

View attachment 384300

Southern Burma isn't really on the table, I should think. Even if some Chinese general manages to reach the delta with local allies (and given logistics, the allies would be doing the real work a la the conquistadors), the result would be a new Burmese state that wrote nice letters about being a vassal until the current emperor died. You've affected Burmese history a great deal, but Chinese borders much less. Meanwhile, the costs of extending that far through terrain that was almost impassible during World War II creates a new Treasure Fleet situation - makes it much harder for the policy to last more than a single emperor.

The same goes for Vientiane, only more so. That's one of the most impassible routes of travel the Chinese even have access to, and these are the people who manage Tibet.

If you want to go overland for that version of the scenario, a decent rule of thumb would be the various borders of the Nanzhao and Dali states that were centered in Yunnan before the Ming. If you have a strong military based in Yunnan, history demonstrates that you can successfully contest perhaps half of the Burma on that map, a portion of that map's Luang Prabang, and probably a corner of Chiang Mai. OTL this was only ever done for more than a brief period by a couple of Yunnanese ethnic groups. But China is China, and could afford it.

If we want to explore beyond "how the Chinese could be more stubborn making the same mistakes they mostly know are mistakes and suffer for it" though, we can. That would entail going by sea. Perhaps it could be combined with more limited efforts with more limited goals in Burma - a split focus might actually make the Burmese adventure cheaper, by keeping objectives more realistic.

The thing is - China only really firmly incorporated Yunnan on a basis capable of being permanent in the Ming dynasty. With pre-modern logistics, it was at the edge of their reach, not much better than eastern or northern Tibet (modern west Sichuan and Qinghai, respectively). Vietnam, though.... The Han dynasty took Tonkin, Annam, and part of Cochin China back in the early 2nd century BC. And China found it practical to maintain the place as a province for a thousand years.

Southeast Asian conquest is much, much easier by sea. In fact, the problem the Chinese had with Tonkin itself was not the distance, but the terrain. Distance and ethnicity wise, there's negligible difference between that part of Vietnam and places like Hainan or Guangxi. Guangdong used to extend to the Vietnamese border - why? - because it was infinitely more practical to manage the region from far-off Guangzhou than from adjacent counties in Guangxi. The trouble with Tonkin is that while most of the ethnic Vietnamese population lived in thin strips along the coast and (IIRC) one major river, most of Tonkin by land area was non-Vietnamese and mountainous. Honestly, China might find it slightly cheaper to hold on to Annam than to Tonkin.

Given two committed emperors, assuming they aren't terribly short-lived, the three Vietnamese states could probably be incorporated. Within so short a time, though, upland Tonkin would almost certainly be a perennial problem rarely not in some form of revolt. Which isn't so bad - "a perennial problem rarely not in some form of revolt" is a fair descriptor of most Qing provinces in this period.
 
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raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Southern Burma isn't really on the table, I should think. Even if some Chinese general manages to reach the delta with local allies (and given logistics, the allies would be doing the real work a la the conquistadors), the result would be a new Burmese state that wrote nice letters about being a vassal until the current emperor died. You've affected Burmese history a great deal, but Chinese borders much less. Meanwhile, the costs of extending that far through terrain that was almost impassible during World War II creates a new Treasure Fleet situation - makes it much harder for the policy to last more than a single emperor.

The same goes for Vientiane, only more so. That's one of the most impassible routes of travel the Chinese even have access to, and these are the people who manage Tibet.

If you want to go overland for that version of the scenario, a decent rule of thumb would be the various borders of the Nanzhao and Dali states that were centered in Yunnan before the Ming. If you have a strong military based in Yunnan, history demonstrates that you can successfully contest perhaps half of the Burma on that map, a portion of that map's Luang Prabang, and probably a corner of Chiang Mai. OTL this was only ever done for more than a brief period by a couple of Yunnanese ethnic groups. But China is China, and could afford it.

If we want to explore beyond "how the Chinese could be more stubborn making the same mistakes they mostly know are mistakes and suffer for it" though, we can. That would entail going by sea. Perhaps it could be combined with more limited efforts with more limited goals in Burma - a split focus might actually make the Burmese adventure cheaper, by keeping objectives more realistic.

The thing is - China only really firmly incorporated Yunnan on a basis capable of being permanent in the Ming dynasty. With pre-modern logistics, it was at the edge of their reach, not much better than eastern or northern Tibet (modern west Sichuan and Qinghai, respectively). Vietnam, though.... The Han dynasty took Tonkin, Annam, and part of Cochin China back in the early 2nd century BC. And China found it practical to maintain the place as a province for a thousand years.

Southeast Asian conquest is much, much easier by sea. In fact, the problem the Chinese had with Tonkin itself was not the distance, but the terrain. Distance and ethnicity wise, there's negligible difference between that part of Vietnam and places like Hainan or Guangxi. Guangdong used to extend to the Vietnamese border - why? - because it was infinitely more practical to manage the region from far-off Guangzhou than from adjacent counties in Guangxi. The trouble with Tonkin is that while most of the ethnic Vietnamese population lived in thin strips along the coast and (IIRC) one major river, most of Tonkin by land area was non-Vietnamese and mountainous. Honestly, China might find it slightly cheaper to hold on to Annam than to Tonkin.

Given two committed emperors, assuming they aren't terribly short-lived, the three Vietnamese states could probably be incorporated. Within so short a time, though, upland Tonkin would almost certainly be a perennial problem rarely not in some form of revolt. Which isn't so bad - "a perennial problem rarely not in some form of revolt" is a fair descriptor of most Qing provinces in this period.

Oh well, I am going to come up with a new map showing coastwise expansion for China. Here the Chinese do not mess at all with Burma and throw everything at Vietnam in the first generation, then on to the Cambodian coast and the Thai coast. They envelop the mountains and jungles of Southeast Asia instead of going *through* them.
 
I think Burma proper or Northern Burma, Arakan and Vietnam proper would be under china, leaving the other parts of indochina under Thai or Cambodian influence.
 

Kaze

Banned
Vietnam and Burma are the closest. The Qing had tried to take them.
The Philipines would bring conflict with Spain, Dutch East Indies war with Holland.
Yet there is a little item on the map above that is in the easy conquest realm - Australia.
 
Vietnam and Burma are the closest. The Qing had tried to take them.
The Philipines would bring conflict with Spain, Dutch East Indies war with Holland.
Yet there is a little item on the map above that is in the easy conquest realm - Australia.
I don't think China would conquer any areas that they don't have claims, what they would conquer is Vietnam and Burma minus Champa and Monland which would go to their Thai and Camboadian allies.
 

Vuu

Banned
They would have to go through hilly Yunnan, which is not so problematic, but the borderlands I guess were extremely undeveloped at the time, resulting in ridiculous supply train. That, or go conquer the coasts first than spread inland later, and if they successfully integrate the area completely, they have an excellent base to spread into the Bengal (one army goes from Tibet via the Brahmaputra, other from Burma, boom)
 

Maoistic

Banned
What if qianlong accepted sulu annexation?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/suluon.../2014/04/09/sulu-history-and-the-chinese/amp/

What about the lanfang republic?
I don't think the Sulu ever asked for annexation, only alliance, and in any case, theirs was nothing more than a rump thalassocracy of a few tiny islands and eastern Bornean coastal areas smacked right in between Dutch and Spanish colonies. Absolutely nothing that the Qing would have any interest in since it would have brought conflict with those two.
 
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