WI: President Birch Bayh

[Archeo04]

In OTL Birch Bayh ran for President in 1976 but dropped out early in the primaries. What if he had won the democratic nomination and the presidency that year?
What would he have done differently than Carter as President? Would he have been re-elected in 1980?
What impact would his presidency have had on the US and the world?

 

[dw93]

Any Democrat not named Jimmy Carter with the Congressional majorities Carter was elected with OTL would've likely seen 1977-78 resemble 1965 and 66 in terms of legislative accomplishment. Healthcare reform being the most likely package. That, a better stimulus, and a better working relationship with Congress and a better grasp on Foreign Policy (though Carter had a decent grasp of it given is background) might've very well been able to narrowly hold on in 1980.

 

[Dancing Fool]

What would he have done differently than Carter as President?

Healthcare reform being the most likely package. That, a better stimulus, and a better working relationship with Congress

Birch Bayh - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

“ . . . an American Democratic Party politician who served as U.S. Senator from Indiana from 1963 to 1981. . . ”

****************

Indiana is mid-America, plus largely a conservative state. And that’s good. As a Democrat from a conservative state, there’s a sporting chance Birch will be able to talk to both halves of America.

In my universe:

1) the main economic issue is the erosion of manufacturing jobs, and not enough other good-paying jobs taking their place, and

2) the main social issue is that crime has become a proxy for talking about race. And since crime sells newspapers [and other media], and it can appear that the more stupid people fixate on every twist and turn of some morbid crime story, there’s a temptation to dismiss the whole thing. That would be a mistake.
In fact, we can all follow every twist and turn of a particular, specific story from time to time.

PS And another president with an interesting first name. When in fact, I don’t think we’ve had a president whose first name is “Michael,” nor a “Steve”

 

[raharris1973]

He wasn't the corporate shill sellout his son was. Sure Indiana was always a more socially conservative, but Evan Bayh also always interpreted that conservatism as requiring him to go more business conservative too. Birch was more like the breed we only see in states like this with Sherrod Brown - stay silent on culture, be pro-worker, brush all distractions off. Paul Ryan tried hard to become the second OH Senator the same way, but failed, mainly because of further changes in his state and media landscape, and his lack of incumbency. Ryan's Senate bid would have been too late for Sherrod Brown's first too.

 

[Sabin]

President Birch Bayh is better than the 1970's deserved. He's honestly President Bartlett-level.

 

[Mynock]

It's interesting to imagine what could be done with the massive Democratic majorities in Congress with a president who knew how the system worked. Interesting to think about what programs could have gone through.

 

[Amadeus]

In OTL Birch Bayh ran for President in 1976 but dropped out early in the primaries. What if he had won the democratic nomination and the presidency that year?
What would he have done differently than Carter as President? Would he have been re-elected in 1980?
What impact would his presidency have had on the US and the world?

He would have had far better relations with Congress, and likely enacts both healthcare reform and an economic stimulus bill. If he does not let the Shah into the US for cancer treatment after heavy lobbying from Henry Kissinger and David Rockefeller (would Birch Bayh even listen to Kissinger at all?), then that butterflies away the Iran Hostage Crisis.

If by 1980 Bayh can claim to have presided over an economic recovery and meaningful legislative achievements, he likely beats Reagan.

 

[raharris1973]

then that butterflies away the Iran Hostage Crisis.

In all likelihood it does, but it is not a 100% guarantee. An embassy and diplomat seizure might still happen even without Shah admittance because of pervasive fears of the American 'hidden hand', memop, memories of the 53 coup, perception of the Embassy as a 'den of spies', and once started, radical elements may enjoy the stand-off as an accelerant. But it is hella less likely/more avoidable, *if* the Shah isn't welcomed. Then again, it is super-duper rare for guys who actually get elected President, even some of the most liberal legislators or icons, like FDR, Kennedy, or LBJ, to actually reject the advice of 'very serious people' in the foreign policy establishment who are considered mainstream and non-crazy, like Henry Kissinger.

 

[Amadeus]

In all likelihood it does, but it is not a 100% guarantee. An embassy and diplomat seizure might still happen even without Shah admittance because of pervasive fears of the American 'hidden hand', memop, memories of the 53 coup, perception of the Embassy as a 'den of spies', and once started, radical elements may enjoy the stand-off as an accelerant. But it is hella less likely/more avoidable, *if* the Shah isn't welcomed. Then again, it is super-duper rare for guys who actually get elected President, even some of the most liberal legislators or icons, like FDR, Kennedy, or LBJ, to actually reject the advice of 'very serious people' in the foreign policy establishment who are considered mainstream and non-crazy, like Henry Kissinger.

Well, Carter's Secretary of State warned him against admitting the Shah because the State Department predicted that this would result in a hostage crisis. It did. So in all fairness, Carter received advice that gave him two options and he chose to admit the Shah despite the risks involved.

 

[raharris1973]

Well, Carter's Secretary of State warned him against admitting the Shah because the State Department predicted that this would result in a hostage crisis. It did. So in all fairness, Carter received advice that gave him two options and he chose to admit the Shah despite the risks involved.

Yeah, Cy Vance was right on this one, and Bayh might have listened to him. But I do tend to feel that in the Cold War National Security Advisors tended to edge out SecStates in prestige.