WI: PRC remained marginalized?

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

US jobs move to mexico and central america instead of China so the rustbelt is as rusted as OTL. Much fewer immigrants after the 1970s since they're employed back home instead of moving here, as a result more GOP presidents since then. That and democrats are more bill clinton/bernie sanders and less OBama-HRC.

 

[Kalga]

I think this understates what a "China with North Korea-like priorities" can do. It will actually build thousands of ICBMs, trying to get into a similar league as the US and USSR. It will build a surface fleet and a large undersea fleet sooner in its history along with large ground forces. Among its vast Army, it will set aside a certain proportion to make a very large special ops force that will be doing infiltrations and terrorism against Taiwan and the ROC presence abroad. It's military tech will be poor, not benefitting from western and Russian advances in arms technology between 60s through 90s (except some through espionage and illicit trade through Pakistan and others), but it will be very large, with a much greater quantity of firepower (and manpower) than the OTL Chinese military of 1971-2011, along with being a weirder, more culty country. And for all its flaws, it will have nukes that work, in large quantity, and with intercontinental launch capability. The reforming China of OTL, which sought greater international connections, made peace with the fact that it was not in the same militarily league as the US and USSR. This isolated China may not, and the results will be terrifying.

Right, forgot about the ICBMs.

As for naval expansion, I seriously doubt that the alt-PRC would construct much in the way of major surface units, probably just spam out gun & missile boats. The vast army is, again, merely a regional problem (geography meant that important countries like Japan, Singapore, and India would be mostly immune from the consequences of a larger PLA).

I mean, region pain in the arse is still a big deal since there's so many important countries in said region.

 

[saluto]

This probably leads to no sino-soviet split and that would undoubtably prolong the Cold War. We’d still be faced with the ‘communist threat’ even as it becomes increasingly obvious the capitalist powers have ‘won’.

 

[Alex1guy]

There is a good point here, it is entirely possible that the US could refuse to recognize/engage China, but the rest of the world does. No US Market is a huge handicap, but does not mean China cannot enjoy many of the benefits of internal reform and growth, and international trade.

After a point the US would look eally silly

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

After a point the US would look eally silly

The US has childishly kept up embargoes on both China and Iran for decades. Don't underestimate the US willingness to act childish.

 

[Tizoc]

Maybe there would be two Chinas in the UN ITTL? With US pushing more for remaining Republic of China in UN?

 

[raharris1973]

The US has childishly kept up embargoes on both China and Iran for decades. Don't underestimate the US willingness to act childish.

It's actually gotten worse worse over time.

Time to recognize the USSR - 16 years delay

Time to recognize the PRC - 30 years delay de jure, 23 years delay, de facto

Dropping grudge towards Cuba - sort of started a little over fifty years later, then in the last couple years, stalling on that

Dropping grudge towards Iran - 30 years then snapping back the last couple years.