WI: Portugal Never Broke Away From Leon?

[AltoRegnant]

Modern Portugal traces its roots to the successful independence war waged by Afonso I, who broke free from the Kingdom of Leon in 1129. But I wonder, how could Afonso I lose this war, and what would come of it? I imagine Portugal would be in a tense situation since the Leonese themselves were a problem for Castile, similar to the Welsh in England or the Italians in the HRE (but less rich).

But, how would the Iberian peninsula evolve? Would the Reconquista finish faster TTL? if so, do they muck around with North Africa like Portugal did, or would they be pulled in other directions? What about overseas exploration? Would it still be the 'Portuguese,' who kickstarted it (albeit on a smaller scale?) What does this mean for England, since they no longer have one of their first major alliances?

 

[UnaiB]

@Lusitania @Joao97

 

[Lusitania]

While the independent in the 12th century (1139) would be delayed the desire to be independent will continue. So the issue is will they side with a Castilian faction in the Leon war with Castile.

I not seeing it staying part of Leon when it is absorbed into Castile.

 

[Phalamus]

The easiest way is probably simply to have Henry of Burgundy die early and never become Count of Portugal. No portugal, no Portuguese independence.

Now, as for what happens later, it really is impossible to predict without knowing if there still is a union with Castille. If yes, it probably means a united Iberia under Castillan dominance (assuming Aragon, Navaree and whatever else is left are later brought into the fold). If no, we''ll probably see a large Galician-Leonese polity in the West.

 

[AltoRegnant]

The easiest way is probably simply to have Henry of Burgundy die early and never become Count of Portugal. No portugal, no Portuguese independence.

Now, as for what happens later, it really is impossible to predict without knowing if there still is a union with Castille. If yes, it probably means a united Iberia under Castillan dominance (assuming Aragon, Navaree and whatever else is left are later brought into the fold). If no, we''ll probably see a large Galician-Leonese polity in the West.

hm. A united Iberia (that actually functions long term and doesn't just dunk on Portugal) sounds intriguing.

 

[Lusitania]

The easiest way is probably simply to have Henry of Burgundy die early and never become Count of Portugal. No portugal, no Portuguese independence.

Now, as for what happens later, it really is impossible to predict without knowing if there still is a union with Castille. If yes, it probably means a united Iberia under Castillan dominance (assuming Aragon, Navaree and whatever else is left are later brought into the fold). If no, we''ll probably see a large Galician-Leonese polity in the West.

The thing is how would that affect the reconquista? Would a United Leon be more or less successful in its reconquista than say separate Portugal and Leon?

Also would Leon unite with Castile or two countries stay independent

 

[Ivan Lupo]

The easiest way is probably simply to have Henry of Burgundy die early and never become Count of Portugal. No portugal, no Portuguese independence

Or by that token, have Afonso I be born a girl or butterfly him away entirely, the County of Portugal's heiress would be his OTL sister Urraca, who was married to Bermudo Perez de Traba, unless the inheritance is split up among all the daughters of Teresa of León and Henry of Burgundy. If the inheritance is split up, then that would seriously hinder any movement towards Portuguese independence if there isn't the sort of political unity that OTL Afonso I helped to foster and develop.

 

[AltoRegnant]

What did the Anglo-Portuguese alliance do to the iberian powers? I would assume it drove them to France, but I don't know that they were particularly big for the 100 Years War or anything

 

[RedAquilla]

One cannot forget that Teresa, the mother of Afonso I was calling herself Queen of Galiza after Alfonso VII left that Kingdom and her project was to become more than a titular Queen and to do that she needed the support of the Galicians of the County of Galiza specifically the Trabas whom she rewarded heavily with positions and privileges and this angered the local Portucalese nobles who were left outside of important positions and thus the rally to Afonso I in hopes to regain their positions and kick the Trabas away.

Henry I not becoming Count is a good way to prevent Portugal from happening but Alfonso VI of Castille and Leon must also not have a son so that Alfonso VII does become King of everything. Another way would be for Afonso I to die fighting someone before Alfonso VII accepts him as King. However, at this point, there is a clear Galician-Portuguese identity in the nobles and if they are alienated they will find someone to back in order to see their interests fulfilled.

I would say the Reconquista could have gone faster if the Kings of Castille and Leon focused on it and don't shift their attentions to something else, the Almoravids were weakened by this point and independent Kingdoms got sizable success meaning a much larger Kingdom would get more.

What did the Anglo-Portuguese alliance do to the iberian powers? I would assume it drove them to France, but I don't know that they were particularly big for the 100 Years War or anything

The Anglo-Portuguese alliance only came in the 14th Century and from what I can see it didn't do much, Castille used some French troops during the Portuguese Interregnum if I remember well but after that the country sort of descended into internal instability thanks to weak rulers. Aragon was competing with France and trying to keep Castille away and was also involved in Sicily and Naples too. Besides after John I of Portugal's reign, there wasn't a big need for English support in Portugal so...that's my reasoning here, someone may have other opinions.

 

[AltoRegnant]

The easiest way is probably simply to have Henry of Burgundy die early and never become Count of Portugal. No portugal, no Portuguese independence.

Now, as for what happens later, it really is impossible to predict without knowing if there still is a union with Castille. If yes, it probably means a united Iberia under Castillan dominance (assuming Aragon, Navaree and whatever else is left are later brought into the fold). If no, we''ll probably see a large Galician-Leonese polity in the West.

Do you guys think that if Christian Iberia united sooner in the middle ages (say, through dynastic shenanigans, by the 1250s since by then butterflies mean its feasible) they would focus more on north Africa or the Mediterranean interior? How successful could they be?

 

[Condottiero]

While the independent in the 12th century (1139) would be delayed the desire to be independent will continue. So the issue is will they side with a Castilian faction in the Leon war with Castile.

I not seeing it staying part of Leon when it is absorbed into Castile.

The desire for independence would not appear without the burgundian as count of Portugal. It would be less than in other parts of Leon.

 

[Lusitania]

The desire for independence would not appear without the burgundian as count of Portugal. It would be less than in other parts of Leon.

Without Burgundian count then the reconquista would be different. Both before Portuguese independence and after

 

[Coluber]

The desire for independence would not appear without the burgundian as count of Portugal. It would be less than in other parts of Leon.

I kind of agree, but given that Portugal was a border fief, there might be some autonomy, or at least a strong regional identity. But imagining an Iberian Peninsula with a Kingdom of Leon which does not merge with Castille is very interesting. The question is, could this hypothetical Leon make the same overseas expansion that Portugal did?

 

[Lusitania]

I think it really depends if like Portugal it’s reconquista on the Iberian peninsula ends in Kate 14th century. Either by conquering part or all of Andalusia or is cut off by larger Castile like Portugal was.

Remember that Portugal did not set out to explore but simply to conquer riches from north Africa. When trade went elsewhere they decided to get to the sources of the trade which was to south of the Sahara. This Portuguese tried to get around west Africa and in doing so set themselves up to lead Europe not only to circumvent Africa but to reach India and Far East.

It was aided by the lucrative trade with West Africa that made Portugal one of richest countries in Europe during the 15th century. Secondly Portugal was aided by strong navy and being far removed from political and military intrigue of Italian peninsula and France which Castile was always involved.

Thus a United Iberian peninsula would not necessarily develop trade and sailing technology at same speed as Portuguese did. Therefore no Columbus and definitely no discovery of New world in late 15th century.

 

[Condottiero]

I kind of agree, but given that Portugal was a border fief, there might be some autonomy, or at least a strong regional identity. But imagining an Iberian Peninsula with a Kingdom of Leon which does not merge with Castille is very interesting. The question is, could this hypothetical Leon make the same overseas expansion that Portugal did?

If they were closed by Castille in their expansion and they did not unite, it is very probable they would try something similar.

 

[Phalamus]

Yeah, assuming the recomquista follows the OTL pattern of north-south expansion and there are no west-east conquests, a Leon that retains Portugal and doesn't merge with Castile is going to end up in a similar geopolitical situation to OTL Portugal. Despite being considerably larger, it's still unlikely to be able to feed itself since the most productive agricultural land in the peninsula is still controlled by Castile (I think). Castile would also have a larger land army, so Leon would be unable to expand eastwards. The kingdom's greatest asset would thus be its large coastline and strategic location between the Mediterranean and Northern Europe, so it would most likely develop a mercantile economy based on sea trade. Pretty much like Portugal in almost every way that counts...

In fact, I'm not even sure whether the dominant language of the kingdom in the long run would be part of the Astur-leonese continuum or the Galician-portuguese one...

 

[Archangel]

A surviving Kingdom of Leon containing Portugal will turn to the sea and international trade (and resulting world exploration as in OTL) for economic reasons. The larger population in the Galician-Portuguese continuum will also result in TTL Leon ending up as Galician Portuguese speaking at court level after a few centuries at most.

 

[Gloss]

I wonder if the border between Castile and Leon would be more contested than OTL Castille and Portugal, given the different geography.