WI: Poland not restored after WWI despite an Allied victory

[Mario]

Let's imagine a scenario where the Central Powers would have handled a different approachment to the Soviet demand for a treaty of peace, and instead of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, Germany and the A-H would have defined a direct new border with the Soviet Union, allowing the Soviets to take effective control of his part just after the immediate CP withdrawal (avoiding IOTL white-red wars) , something like this:

After the Allied victory, the Soviet Union would have blocked any attempt to resurrect Poland and had validated their common borders with Germany. The collapse of the Austria-Hungary Empire might allow the Soviets to take the enlarged Galizia & Lodomeria territory and make a new SSR out of it.

Of course France, the UK and the US would not be happy with such outcome, but even with a defeated Germany, it would be difficult for them to enforce the creation of a Polish independent state if the USSR is completely opposed to that.

If Poland is not resurrected, one of the pillars for triggering WWII is gone, so in case that Nazism triumphs in Germany anyway, the events leading up to a different form of WWII would be drastically different.

 

[Nivek]

If Poland is not resurrected, one of the pillars for triggering WWII is gone, so in case that Nazism triumphs in Germany anyway, the events leading up to a different form of WWII would be drastically different.

We get Communist germany as german would think Commies where the 'honest brokers' and helped them...that will be fun

 

[David T]

There will be an at least nominally independent Poland--period. Everyone theoretically wanted one in 1918. (Not only the Russian Provisional Government and the Bolsheviks but even the Russian Whites were willing to concede the independence of Poland, though only as far as the Curzon line.) The Germans had already established a "Kingdom of Poland." Why would they abolish it at Brest-Litovsk and lose the propaganda advantage it gave them? (And would they really want all those Poles in the Reich? They were not Hitler and couldn't just kill them.) And once the Germans and Austrians lost, the Poles would rebel as in OTL and the Allies would demand recognition of Poland's independence if Germany wanted to avoid an invasion, wanted the food blockade lifted, etc. As for the Bolsheviks rushing in to grab it, why would they be more able to do so than in OTL? You can't just wish away the Russian Civil War that prevented it. You have to explain why it doesn't occur--certainly this alternate Brest Litovsk won't prevent it. Furthermore if they were strong enough to Sovietize Poland they would still probably leave it nominally independent. See my post at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-polish-ssr-be-possible.478388/#post-19775196 on how Stalin recognized in 1920 that the realities of nationalism in Europe meant that a sovietized Germany or even Poland could not enter into a federation with Russia on the same basis as, say, Ukraine.

 

[Mario]

There will be an at least nominally independent Poland--period. Everyone theoretically wanted one in 1918. (Not only the Russian Provisional Government and the Bolsheviks but even the Russian Whites were willing to concede the independence of Poland, though only as far as the Curzon line.) The Germans had already established a "Kingdom of Poland." Why would they abolish it at Brest-Litovsk and lose the propaganda advantage it gave them?

Well, a different approach to Brest-Litovsk requires earlier PoDs which would prevent the ideals of some form of Mitteleuropa (that Kingdom of Poland went on that way) to be finally considered as a reasonable post-war scenario, and opt for more traditional approach of just moving borders. Germany did not really want a full independent Poland, just a puppet state; and the Bolsheviks would have accepted a 'new partition of Poland' if it would have been offered a realistic scenario, but IOTL it was far from reality and they were pragmatic enough for accepting a buffer German-puppet Polish state. But they were never happy with the existence of the Second Polish Republic.

(And would they really want all those Poles in the Reich? They were not Hitler and couldn't just kill them.)

Well, the Prussia of 1795 already included that much of Poland. Probably Germany would have encouraged settlement of German people there, as it happened in Posen province.

And once the Germans and Austrians lost, the Poles would rebel as in OTL and the Allies would demand recognition of Poland's independence if Germany wanted to avoid an invasion, wanted the food blockade lifted, etc.

I don't think France or the UK would have invaded Germany (even if it was a defeated country, large scale invasion would require to invest again a lot of military effort there) just for forcing them to allow an independent Poland, even less if there would be a higher risk of Soviet occupation of German Poland than IOTL. The Polish rebellions with half country under Soviet rule would not be that easy.

As for the Bolsheviks rushing in to grab it, why would they be more able to do so than in OTL? You can't just wish away the Russian Civil War that prevented it. You have to explain why it doesn't occur--certainly this alternate Brest Litovsk won't prevent it.

Brest-Litovsk prevented IOTL the Bolsheviks to move immediately into Ukraine and Belarus, where white rebels grew under German umbrella until the defeat of Germany. ITTL the Germans and Austrians would have withdrew from these territories following a Bolshevik taking over, so there is more ensured that no power vacuum is left. Russian Civil War might be not prevented after all, but this scenario would be far far favourable to the Bolsheviks to take over up to the new border.

Furthermore if they were strong enough to Sovietize Poland they would still probably leave it nominally independent. See my post at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-polish-ssr-be-possible.478388/#post-19775196 on how Stalin recognized in 1920 that the realities of nationalism in Europe meant that a sovietized Germany or even Poland could not enter into a federation with Russia on the same basis as, say, Ukraine.

There is a difference between 'Poland' and just the Eastern chunks of Poland (like IOTL USSR incorpoarted in 1945).

 

[David T]

Well, the Prussia of 1795 already included that much of Poland. Probably Germany would have encouraged settlement of German people there, as it happened in Posen province.

The Prussia of 1795 was before the rise of modern German nationalism during the Napoleonic wars. So it could be a multiethnic German/Slavic state. The Germany of 1918 was a very different animal. As a friend of mine once remarked in another forum:

"I think the Napoleonic Wars were the turning point. : By then, German nationalism was a real force, the memory of the War of Liberation was fresh, and most German nationalists were looking specifically towards Prussia for inspiration, since Prussia had taken the leading role in that war. And of course, the peace settlement granted the Rhineland to Prussia (while giving Congress Poland to Russia) and anchored the Kingdom firmly in the emerging Germany. (Prior to that, after the Third Partition of Poland, when Warsaw and most of the Polish heartland was part of Prussia, the position of Prussia within the German nation was very detached, and the Kingdom was a de facto German-Slav state east of the Elbe. It might have very well remained as such, and consequently, played a more or less similar role to Austria-Hungary, as an odd East European anachronism. Meanwhile, the history of German unification could have taken a different course.)"

The Germany of 1918 was designed as a specifically German nation-state and did not want millions of additional Poles within its boundaries. Dominating them was one thing. Incorporating them within the Reich was another. Even after generations of colonization, after all, Posen still had a Polish majority. This isn't to say there couldn't be modifications of the border with Congress Poland--anything from Ludendorff's "Polish border strip" to Hoffmann's proposal of modest border changes "to improve the defences of Thorn, Soldau, and the Upper Silesian coal mines." https://books.google.com/books?id=J2spDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA63 The Kaiser immediately approved of Hoffmann's proposal.

As Hoffmann wrote, "I was an enemy of any settlement of the Polish question which would increase in Germany the number of subjects of Polish nationality. Notwithstanding the measures that Prussia had taken during many decades, we had not been able to manage the Poles we have, and I could not see the advantage of any addition to the number of citizens of that nationality. " https://books.google.com/books?id=n8-mDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT272

BTW, why would the Germans on losing the War want to turn over their part of Poland to the Bolsheviks rather than to a Polish state? It's not as though the Germans didn't still have reason to fear a larger Russia, Bolshevik or otherwise.--and by this time they were aware of the danger of communist revolution in Germany. But even if the Germans wanted to do this, the Allies had ways to make them submit to the creation of Poland the same way they submitted to the other provisions of the Versailles Treaty.

 

[ArtosStark]

I don't think France or the UK would have invaded Germany (even if it was a defeated country, large scale invasion would require to invest again a lot of military effort there) just for forcing them to allow an independent Poland, even less if there would be a higher risk of Soviet occupation of German Poland than IOTL. The Polish rebellions with half country under Soviet rule would not be that easy.

Why would they need to? The status of Poland was decided at the same conference that stripped Germany of her colonies, her right to an army and assigned reparations and exclusive war guilt to her. If they were unable to resist all of that, how, and why, are they balking at the existence of Poland?

 

[Mario]

Why would they need to? The status of Poland was decided at the same conference that stripped Germany of her colonies, her right to an army and assigned reparations and exclusive war guilt to her. If they were unable to resist all of that, how, and why, are they balking at the existence of Poland?

The situation would be not the same.

IOTL Germany was unable to enforce the provisions of Brest-Litovsk, so Poland, as well as the Baltic states, already existed in their own by the end of 1918, they were not occupied by Soviet forces and could stand their ground. ITTL Poland does not exist in their own, and a significant part of it is already under Soviet control. France and UK can write whatever at Versailles, but this would not force the USSR to surrender Poland if they would not want to, so it is pointless to force Germany to do so if the USSR is not going to allow a free Poland to exist.

The treaty of Versailles had its limits. It could force Germany to surrender their colonies because they were not in a good position for defending them to be grabbed by France/UK; they could force Germany to pay reparations as Allied forces were present in the Rhine-Saar area...but without USSR consent, they would be unable to enforce any change east to the Oder even if they would write it thousand times at the treaty.

 

[ArtosStark]

The situation would be not the same.

IOTL Germany was unable to enforce the provisions of Brest-Litovsk, so Poland, as well as the Baltic states, already existed in their own by the end of 1918, they were not occupied by Soviet forces and could stand their ground. ITTL Poland does not exist in their own, and a significant part of it is already under Soviet control. France and UK can write whatever at Versailles, but this would not force the USSR to surrender Poland if they would not want to, so it is pointless to force Germany to do so if the USSR is not going to allow a free Poland to exist.

The treaty of Versailles had its limits. It could force Germany to surrender their colonies because they were not in a good position for defending them to be grabbed by France/UK; they could force Germany to pay reparations as Allied forces were present in the Rhine-Saar area...but without USSR consent, they would be unable to enforce any change east to the Oder even if they would write it thousand times at the treaty.

As said above, this scenario would not butterfly the Russian civil war. I am unsure of why it is assumed that the Soviets will be well entrenched in Poland when fighting the whites.