WI: Philip II of Spain Drowns In 1556

[Malta]

Reading “America” by Robert Goodwin mentions one Pedro Menedez de Alvies (who would go on found St Augustine) won great esteem in Philip’s eyes when in 1556 he was in charge of the fleet that brought Philip to Spain following his father’s abdication. Apparently having been born in the area off the coast of Asturias he had sensed a storm coming and advised Philip and his entourage to go to shore whereupon the ship they were on was presumably wrecked.

Now, what if Philip II has died in said storm. Where would that leave Carlos V and also of course Philip’s infamously disturbed son, also named Carlos, following it?

 

[TimTurner]

the Low Countries presumably remain Spanish? with all the butterflies that ensue from that?

 

[Malta]

I'd say we would have three VERY YOUNG candidates to step into Philip's role as heir.

1. His natural son, Carlos. Aged 11 and noted to be very unstable.
2. Sebastian of Portugal, Philip's nephew (through his sister Joanna) who would be 3 at the time and whose own father had died two years earlier and would succeed the throne of Portugal after his own grandfather's death in December of the same year.
3. Rudolf of Bohemia/Hungary/Croatia (and future HRE), another nephew of Philip (through his other sister Maria). ALSO about 4 in this time frame.

 

[Malta]

the Low Countries presumably remain Spanish? with all the butterflies that ensue from that?

Not sure really. The three Would-Be-Candidates I listed would each pull things in different directions.

If Sebastian takes the throne it would lead to an earlier Iberian Union-this time from an Portuguese monarch.

Carlos though seems the most likely candidate And is without a doubt not the only worst but the one most likely to wreck all kinds of unpredictable havoc. I can certainly see him pulling something early on like invading France or Portugal! He is the most wild card in the deck. I’d very much imagine there would be an eventual coup or civil war to see him dethroned.

 

[Gonzaga]

I'd say we would have three VERY YOUNG candidates to step into Philip's role as heir.

1. His natural son, Carlos. Aged 11 and noted to be very unstable.
2. Sebastian of Portugal, Philip's nephew (through his sister Joanna) who would be 3 at the time and whose own father had died two years earlier and would succeed the throne of Portugal after his own grandfather's death in December of the same year.
3. Rudolf of Bohemia/Hungary/Croatia (and future HRE), another nephew of Philip (through his other sister Maria). ALSO about 4 in this time frame.

After Carlos, the heir would be Rudolf's mother, Maria of Austria. So, if Philip II dies in 1556, and Carlos is considered unfit to rule, then we could see Maria and Maximilian becoming monarchs of Spain, and another son of Ferdinand I becoming the Habsburg heir to the HRE.

 

[TimTurner]

If Sebastian takes the throne it would lead to an earlier Iberian Union-this time from an Portuguese monarch.

shades of Scotland and England in 1603

 

[Malta]

After Carlos, the heir would be Rudolf's mother, Maria of Austria. So, if Philip II dies in 1556, and Carlos is considered unfit to rule, then we could see Maria and Maximilian becoming monarchs of Spain, and another son of Ferdinand I becoming the Habsburg heir to the HRE.

Quite possible indeed. Though would there be push back from Joanna or the Spanish nobility? Depending on the local reaction to Max and Rudolf there could be local support for Sebastian not too dissimilar to the Revolt of the Communeros?

 

[Gonzaga]

Quite possible indeed. Though would there be push back from Joanna or the Spanish nobility? Depending on the local reaction to Max and Rudolf there could be local support for Sebastian not too dissimilar to the Revolt of the Communeros?

Maria lived in Spain during most of her life by then, and even was regent of Spain (together with Maximilian) from 1548 to 1551, when Philip was abroad and Charles V in the HRE. So they were known and accepted by the Spanish nobility. Joanna also was regent for Philip, but only after Maximilian and Maria were already living in the HRE. But I think the greatest problem here is that Joanna becoming queen would exclude the Habsburgs from the throne and give it to the Aviz. I believe that Charles V, before his death, would probably sort out the succession in order to make Maria and Maximilian his heirs.

 

[Malta]

Maria lived in Spain during most of her life by then, and even was regent of Spain (together with Maximilian) from 1548 to 1551, when Philip was abroad and Charles V in the HRE. So they were known and accepted by the Spanish nobility. Joanna also was regent for Philip, but only after Maximilian and Maria were already living in the HRE. But I think the greatest problem here is that Joanna becoming queen would exclude the Habsburgs from the throne and give it to the Aviz. I believe that Charles V, before his death, would probably sort out the succession in order to make Maria and Maximilian his heirs.

It does appear though that Charles V disliked Max, especially as the former battled Protestant Germans during the Pre-POD timeframe which Max seemed lenient toward. Charles V also seemed to have tried to prevent him from becoming future Emperor. Personally I think the Spanish nobility would still push for Carlos despite their misgivings about his temper, Charles too may have helped it along out of dislike for Max. Certainly the Spanish nobility would prefer a monarch who was already influenced by Spanish customs.

However if Maria doesn’t take the throne then how would their reign go in Spain? Would Max give up his position as King of Bohemia and Hungary?

It looks like the Spanish nobility liked Maria but had misgivings about Max, and the feeling was likely mutual. Max raised in a German-Italian climate appears to have been more influenced by the humanist thinking and religious tolerance and the two sides may have disliked each other. Though Max seemed to have a very “adventurous” spirit that may have been better mingled with the Reconquestia spirit, perhaps a PR campaign focused on his fighting the Ottomans May have helped? How would this have changed Rudolf’s upbringing?

To me at least I think there is still a good chance for another revolt of the Communeros.

 

[Malta]

Things in Spanish Netherlands may not be so bad with Max influencing things. Likewise if Rudolf retains his OTL aloof nature toward religion. It’s possible the French colonies in Florida-Georgia may not be massacred and butterflies may lead to at least a longer lasting French influence on the area.

 

[Archduke]

Charles V probably retakes charge while they wait for Carlos to come of age. Kings abdicating and then becoming king again is uncommon but not unheard of.

 

[isabella]

Charles V probably retakes charge while they wait for Carlos to come of age. Kings abdicating and then becoming king again is uncommon but not unheard of.

Charles will either take back the crown or name a regent for don Carlos (likely his daughter Juana).
The only serious difference with OTL is who here the Netherlands can go to Maria instead of don Carlos.
Here a wedding between don Carlos and Elisabeth of France is almost guaranteed but if Carlos II of Spain die childless as OTL here Maria will inhereit everything and the whole Habsburg’s inheritance will be divided between Maria and Maximilian’s sons

 

[WillVictoria]

Charles will either take back the crown or name a regent for don Carlos (likely his daughter Juana).
The only serious difference with OTL is who here the Netherlands can go to Maria instead of don Carlos.
Here a wedding between don Carlos and Elisabeth of France is almost guaranteed but if Carlos II of Spain die childless as OTL here Maria will inherit everything and the whole Habsburg’s inheritance will be divided between Maria and Maximilian’s sons

So by 1556, Rudolf & Ernest have already been born and, if we assume OTL births, their brothers Matthias, Maximilian, & Albert join in the inheritance. How might the inheritance be divided?

Vague (probably incorrect) idea:
Rudolf - HRE
Ernest - Spain
Matthias - Low Countries
Maximilian & Albert- either left as heirs in case either of the above dies childless (as all three did IOTL), otherwise maybe one gets the Italian possessions and the other something in Austria?

Also, who might the boys marry? IOTL Rudolf, Ernest, and Maximilian never married, Matthias didn't wed until 1611, and Albert's wife has been butterflied away.

 

[isabella]

So by 1556, Rudolf & Ernest have already been born and, if we assume OTL births, their brothers Matthias, Maximilian, & Albert join in the inheritance. How might the inheritance be divided?

Vague (probably incorrect) idea:
Rudolf - HRE
Ernest - Spain
Matthias - Low Countries
Maximilian & Albert- either left as heirs in case either of the above dies childless (as all three did IOTL), otherwise maybe one gets the Italian possessions and the other something in Austria?

Also, who might the boys marry? IOTL Rudolf, Ernest, and Maximilian never married, Matthias didn't wed until 1611, and Albert's wife has been butterflied away.

Pretty good division, instead.
Max and Albert will likely join the Church as OTL or receive either lands in Austria. One of them can get Milan (who was an Imperial fief) but Naples, Sicily and Sardinia are part of the Spanish inheritance so they will go to Ernest

 

[H.Flashman(VC)]

Things in Spanish Netherlands may not be so bad with Max influencing things. Likewise if Rudolf retains his OTL aloof nature toward religion.

Any centralization effort in the low countries without the locals, nobles and citizens having influence directly on the resident sovereign or without a good functioning line to a non-resident sovereign, will lead to continuous troubles for the sovereign. This is independent of the religious friction. The following solution would be a good one.

Matthias - Low Countries

 

[WillVictoria]

Who might the boys marry? Let's say Maximilian gets Milan and Albert's future is dependent on how the other marriages turn out (if he has gaggles of nephews lying around he goes to the church, if not he gets married and has some land in Austria). My best (and probably wrong) guess is:

• Rudolf- Maybe someone like Maria Anna of Bavaria?
• Ernest- A daughter of Maria, Hereditary Duchess of Parma (either Margherita or an ATL sister) or a daughter of Caterina of Braganza (Maria or Seraphina)
• Matthias- Possibly Louise of Lorraine, who is a d'Egmont on her mother's side
• Maximilian- Margherita or Anna Julianna Gonzaga

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

His natural son, Carlos. Aged 11 and noted to be very unstable

Was Carlos' instability that pronounced at this point (1556)? I thought it only cropped up later (or rather, was exacerbated by his fall).

Also, why is everyone going as though a Maximilian-line inheritance of Spain is a given? 1556 means Carlos likely marries Élisabeth de Valois/Anna of Austria (or even his aunt, Juana of Spain, which was also considered). Him having kids by any/all is not impossible. In which case, Spain will stay firmly with him and his line.
After all, Spain isn't an elective monarchy like the Empire is. So Carlos WILL be successor to Felipe, no ifs, buts or coconuts. Despite having had an "insane" monarch, Spain hadn't/didn't regard this as being a deal-breaker (in fact, I think if most western European countries did, we'd have been spared Henry VI and Charles VI in England and France, for instance).

Now, obviously, if Cawwos is already nuttier than an almond tree in season, we'd see a regency of a similar sort to that that had been enacted for his grandmother. (Karl V would probably wed the boy to his aunt, Juana, and appoint her as regent for her husband. A marriage to Anna of Austria is unlikely before 1562 at the earliest, and a 13yo queen-consort is unlikely to be made regent for a crazy husband. And I can't see Élisabeth de Valois being Karl V's choice to fill said role TBH).
@Benevolence @Vitruvius @Space Oddity @Zulfurium @Kurt_Steiner @Gonzaga @Karolus Rex

 

[rush4you]

If Phillip II dies early, he won't have the chance to use the Gates of Time to defeat the British fleet with the Great and Most Fortunate Spanish Navy and rule most of the western world.

 

[BBadolato]

Reading “America” by Robert Goodwin mentions one Pedro Menedez de Alvies (who would go on found St Augustine) won great esteem in Philip’s eyes when in 1556 he was in charge of the fleet that brought Philip to Spain following his father’s abdication. Apparently having been born in the area off the coast of Asturias he had sensed a storm coming and advised Philip and his entourage to go to shore whereupon the ship they were on was presumably wrecked.

Now, what if Philip II has died in said storm. Where would that leave Carlos V and also of course Philip’s infamously disturbed son, also named Carlos, following it?

It depends on where your views on Carlos lie. I tend to believe he would be rash and short-tempered, but not Spanish Nero levels of cruel, his mental health really worsened after an accident in 1562, which saw him undergo trepanation.

 

[Malta]

It depends on where your views on Carlos lie. I tend to believe he would be rash and short-tempered, but not Spanish Nero levels of cruel, his mental health really worsened after an accident in 1562, which saw him undergo trepanation.

The book describes Carlos as being quite cruel and short tempered before his accident, it self being a result of him chasing a servant. Afterward he just went off the reservation completely with attempts to kill people and overthrow his father and such.