WI: Philip II of Spain Drowns In 1556

Was Carlos' instability that pronounced at this point (1556)? I thought it only cropped up later (or rather, was exacerbated by his fall).

Also, why is everyone going as though a Maximilian-line inheritance of Spain is a given? 1556 means Carlos likely marries Élisabeth de Valois/Anna of Austria (or even his aunt, Juana of Spain, which was also considered). Him having kids by any/all is not impossible. In which case, Spain will stay firmly with him and his line.
After all, Spain isn't an elective monarchy like the Empire is. So Carlos WILL be successor to Felipe, no ifs, buts or coconuts. Despite having had an "insane" monarch, Spain hadn't/didn't regard this as being a deal-breaker (in fact, I think if most western European countries did, we'd have been spared Henry VI and Charles VI in England and France, for instance).

Now, obviously, if Cawwos is already nuttier than an almond tree in season, we'd see a regency of a similar sort to that that had been enacted for his grandmother. (Karl V would probably wed the boy to his aunt, Juana, and appoint her as regent for her husband. A marriage to Anna of Austria is unlikely before 1562 at the earliest, and a 13yo queen-consort is unlikely to be made regent for a crazy husband. And I can't see Élisabeth de Valois being Karl V's choice to fill said role TBH).
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Anna is way too young for Carlos now... Elisabeth is a possibility as the death of Philip will force Charles V to conclude earlier the Italian Wars who in OTL ended in 1559 with the treaty of Cateau-Cambrésis and as in OTL that treaty established a Spanish wedding for Elisabeth as seal of the peace, I can not see it much different here. Juana is a serious alternative but only if Charles II is already reputed mad (and he was not in OTL) and if Carlos is too instable Charles (V) can always take back the crown of Spain and remarrying to Margaret of France (aka Henry II’s sister who would be around 33 years old) for sealing the peace and marry Carlos to Juana. Elisabeth of France here can marry Sebastian of Portugal or Rudolf of Austria.
 
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