WI: Oda Nobunaga doesn’t get betrayed

[GameBawesome]

Oda Nobunaga was one of three unifiers of Japan. Through brilliance, and brutality, he almost unified the entirety of Japan.

But, he was betrayed by Akechi Mitsuhide, at Honnō-ji. After his death, Toyotomi Hideyoshi finished his conquests.

What if, Akechi Mitsuhide didn’t betrayed Oda Nobunaga? What if the Honnō-ji incident never occurred?

Where does Oda Nobunaga strike next?
How long would it take Nobunaga to pacify the other Daimyo?
What would Oda Nobunaga do after?
Would Oda Nobunaga try to conquer outside of Japan?
Would the Oda Family become a “Oda Shogunate?

 

[Wendell]

Really neat idea.

 

[GameBawesome]

If Oda Nobunaga did not die, how long would it take for him to unify the rest of Japan?

 

[Phalamus]

If Oda Nobunaga did not die, how long would it take for him to unify the rest of Japan?

Not much. He already had most of it. The last pockets of resistance were shikoku, Kyushu and the Hojo lands.

IOTL it took Hideyoshi 5 years to complete the unification after he resumed Nobunaga's conquests in 1585. So, with a surviving Nobunaga the power struggle that followed his death would be butterflied and the conquests could resume right. So I guess he can have the country unified by 1587 or so, slightly earlier than OTL

 

[Nivek]

Not much. He already had most of it. The last pockets of resistance were shikoku, Kyushu and the Hojo lands.

View attachment 579545

IOTL it took Hideyoshi 5 years to complete the unification after he resumed Nobunaga's conquests in 1585. So, with a surviving Nobunaga the power struggle that followed his death would be butterflied and the conquests could resume right. So I guess he can have the country unified by 1587 or so, slightly earlier than OTL

Would he try an invasion of korea or unlike Hideyoshi, he have enough of grip to not try that?

 

[Phalamus]

Would he try an invasion of korea or unlike Hideyoshi, he have enough of grip to not try that?

He certainly wouldn't have the need to start an invasion to consolidate power. He wasn't a filthy commoner like Hideyoshi, so his rule would be a lot less controversial.

If he still wants to mount a circus to keep unemployment samurai busy, Taiwan should be enough.

Now, that said, invading Korea was supposedly his idea (or so did Hideyoshi say at least), so I guess it could go either

We've had a million threads about a surviving Nobunaga. Too bad we never got a TL...

 

[Sarthak]

He certainly wouldn't have the need to start an invasion to consolidate power. He wasn't a filthy commoner like Hideyoshi, so his rule would be a lot less controversial.

If he still wants to mount a circus to keep unemployment samurai busy, Taiwan should be enough.

Now, that said, invading Korea was supposedly his idea (or so did Hideyoshi say at least), so I guess it could go either

We've had a million threads about a surviving Nobunaga. Too bad we never got a TL...

I think that's because Japanese politics during this era was........very very complicated to write and implement in a tl.

 

[Nivek]

He certainly wouldn't have the need to start an invasion to consolidate power. He wasn't a filthy commoner like Hideyoshi, so his rule would be a lot less controversial.

If he still wants to mount a circus to keep unemployment samurai busy, Taiwan should be enough.

Now, that said, invading Korea was supposedly his idea (or so did Hideyoshi say at least), so I guess it could go either

We've had a million threads about a surviving Nobunaga. Too bad we never got a TL...

I think that's because Japanese politics during this era was........very very complicated to write and implement in a tl.

And Much of the sources are written in ancient japanese, and someone knowing how to read those...would have better thing to do than write a TL

 

[Phalamus]

I think that's because Japanese politics during this era was........very very complicated to write and implement in a tl.

True. But we've had a couple of TLs with alternate shogunates at around this period. It's kind of surprising no one ever took the Oda given how iconic Nobunaga is

 

[33k7]

Oda Nobunaga will most likely be able to unify Japan

his support for missionaries and Christians in Japan though would become a problem Oda Nobunaga had a lot of problems dealing with Buddhist
Warrior monks while he was unifying Japan he Also hosted debates between the Jesuits and Buddhist monks, during which he sided with the Jesuits because the monks physically lashed out. personally I think he had a vendetta against the Ikko-Ikki so I think he was actually pushing Christian missionaries into situations where the Buddhist monks would look unreasonable and weakened their control over a lot of Japan so a surviving Oda will probably lead to a more Christian Japan. his eldest son's also met with Jesuit missionaries a lot as well

 

[Creticus]

He certainly wouldn't have the need to start an invasion to consolidate power. He wasn't a filthy commoner like Hideyoshi, so his rule would be a lot less controversial.

If he still wants to mount a circus to keep unemployment samurai busy, Taiwan should be enough.

Now, that said, invading Korea was supposedly his idea (or so did Hideyoshi say at least), so I guess it could go either

We've had a million threads about a surviving Nobunaga. Too bad we never got a TL...

Hideyoshi's position was stronger than Ieyasu's position. After all, Kanpaku was a higher rank than Shogun. Oh sure, Hideyoshi was born a commoner, but that's why he had himself adopted by Konoe Sakihisa, thus turning himself into a Fujiwara.

Taiwan is worthless in this period. Like, even Ryukyu would be better. In any case, I'm of the opinion that Hideyoshi was quite serious about overseas conquests.

 

[Phalamus]

Hideyoshi's position was stronger than Ieyasu's position. After all, Kanpaku was a higher rank than Shogun. Oh sure, Hideyoshi was born a commoner, but that's why he had himself adopted by Konoe Sakihisa, thus turning himself into a Fujiwara.

It was technically higher, but by no means was it perceived to be a position of greater power. Adopted or not, people did know he had been born a commoner and that created strong prejudice against him. Nobody likes upstarters.

Taiwan is worthless in this period.

It has natives to fight. If the objective is to create a new battlefield to get rid of surplus samurais, it perfectly does the job. Though Ryukyu is obviously likely as well.

 

[Nivek]

Oda Nobunaga will most likely be able to unify Japan

his support for missionaries and Christians in Japan though would become a problem Oda Nobunaga had a lot of problems dealing with Buddhist
Warrior monks while he was unifying Japan he Also hosted debates between the Jesuits and Buddhist monks, during which he sided with the Jesuits because the monks physically lashed out. personally I think he had a vendetta against the Ikko-Ikki so I think he was actually pushing Christian missionaries into situations where the Buddhist monks would look unreasonable and weakened their control over a lot of Japan so a surviving Oda will probably lead to a more Christian Japan. his eldest son's also met with Jesuit missionaries a lot as well

Nah the ODA will use the christians as they used the buddhist..for their own benefit, again they're regents of a living pagan god anyway, so they will use it to sideline buddhist but when nazarean become a threat...they will kick them out

 

[33k7]

Nah the ODA will use the christians as they used the buddhist..for their own benefit, again they're regents of a living pagan god anyway, so they will use it to sideline buddhist but when nazarean become a threat...they will kick them out

That's probably what they're thinking is but the question is if they allow them to get too powerful they're going to have a real problem on their hands because you can bet there will be quite a few Daimyo and Samurai that will have converted most likely. not to mention the Daimyo that supported the Buddhist will see this as an opportunity to overthrow the Oda shogunate that was persecuting them. it really is an interesting timeline to think about.

 

[Phalamus]

That's probably what they're thinking is but the question is if they allow them to get too powerful they're going to have a real problem on their hands because you can bet there will be quite a few Daimyo and Samurai that will have converted most likely. not to mention the Daimyo that supported the Buddhist will see this as an opportunity to overthrow the Oda shogunate that was persecuting them. it really is an interesting timeline to think about.

During the Sengoku period, converting to Christianity was useful for some daimyo because it attracted European traders who brought Chinese goods firearms with them. But by the late Sengoku period firearms were widespread and internal trade was starting to blossom. There even came a point before Sakoku when the Japanese didn't even have to depend on Europeans for Chinese goods because they had red seals ships now.

In short, the incentive to convert would disappear very shortly. I doubt there would be any more comverted daimyos than IOTL and Christianity as a whole would most likely remain largely confined to southern Kyushu, with some additional small communities in major cities.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Nah the ODA will use the christians as they used the buddhist..for their own benefit, again they're regents of a living pagan god anyway, so they will use it to sideline buddhist but when nazarean become a threat...they will kick them out

Eh, I think playing the Christians and Buddhists off each other is more likely than total expulsion. China-esque cycles of persecution and tolerance seem more likely.

 

[Remitonov]

Eh, I think playing the Christians and Buddhists off each other is more likely than total expulsion. China-esque cycles of persecution and tolerance seem more likely.

Of course, Nobunaga will look out for whichever parties start to become the bigger threat. He's willing to tolerate Christianity so long as the missionaries were crippling the power of Buddhist temples opposed to his rule. But in the long term, he could end up listening to Dutch and English rumours of Catholic complicity in prepping the grounds for an Iberian colonial conquest (as per OTL), and might find Protestantism a better option in controlling his Christian subjects due to its decentralized nature and not having to answer to some Nanban priest half a world away. Ultimately, I do think the Jesuits would find it increasingly hard to avoid crossing him once the immediate threat of revolts from the temples are gone and their presence becomes an immediate problem. That's even without the Protestant traders whispering conspiracies in hopes of removing the competition in Japan's markets.

 

[Ficboy]

An Oda Nobunaga ruled Japan means that Western ideas and inventions such as Christianity (primarily Catholic and to a lesser extent Protestant), the Latin alphabet (Hepburn-style), firearms and others will be adopted into the native culture and unlike OTL it will be embraced much more without the policy of sakoku (isolation).

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

But in the long term, he could end up listening to Dutch and English rumours of Catholic complicity in prepping the grounds for an Iberian colonial conquest (as per OTL), and might find Protestantism a better option in controlling his Christian subjects due to its decentralized nature and not having to answer to some Nanban priest half a world away.

Nah, trading one for the other just gets you the exact same problem a little later on. Better to have the Protestants and Catholics compete for the small pool of potential converts.

 

[farmerted555]

Would Nobunaga close off the country like what the Tokugawa did, or would he keep Japan open for European trade?