WI: Northern Sea Route for 2nd Pacific Squadron?

[Dwergar]

As is known, voyage of the 2nd Pacific Squadron during the Russo-Japanese war was fraught with accidents that culminated in it's destruction at Tsushima.

To a degree, those issues (like inability to use Suez canal) were predictable - so what if russian admirals thought to take a shorter (if not necessarily easier) Northern Sea Route, while also investing some into building up local infrastructure.

Would it allow for earlier arrival of russian reinforcements to Vladivostok, and for their better combat capability? How could Japanese react to such an approach? What would be the result - I assume russians would still lose the war, but would the details of post-war arrangements change?

 

[Geekhis Khan]

That would be a monumentally risky idea. The Northeast Passage had only a very, very narrow transit window a century ago, and then only with icebreakers. Only a handful of people, well-prepared explorers in ships built for it, had made the full passage by 1900. As late as 1912 explorers were disappearing trying to navigate it. You'd need basically all of your icebreakers to lead the way. There were no coaling stops along the way to resupply them prior to the 1930s either, so you'd need to establish them on the fly, which would take time and resources and be hard to pull off reactively. It wasn't until the 1930s that the Soviets began making the route semi-viable to shipping in a large, well-funded program, and even then the transit window was very narrow, with only a small number of risky transits made, and (this is critical) they lost 25 of 64 ships to the ice in a 1937 transit. That was with reliable radios, modern icebreakers, resupply stops, and an established, mapped, navigable route, which the 1904 expedition wouldn't have.

Thus trying to slip an entire naval fleet through it in 1904/5 would be a spectacular risk, and quite likely you lose some or all of your ships to the ice. And you'd need to have already predicted the outcome of the Battle of the Yellow Sea, started preparing in May/June, and left in July, because mid-late August of 1904 after the battle would probably be too late. It would already be icing up. The fleet only left in Oct in OTL to start the trip, which is way too late.

It's only in recent years thanks to climate change that the NE Passage is regularly passable to large ships, and even that window is very narrow and the trip still risky, even with GPS.

Northeast Passage - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Not *entirely* ASB, but near enough to it, and I personally think any Admiral that suggested it would be laughed out of the room.

 

[Garrison]

Even if the sea conditions permitted this would there be adequate opportunities to refuel and resupply enroute? Also I suspect they still manage to shoot up some British fishing trawlers on the way, with the positive that as they are headed north there's less threat of the British tasking action.

 

[vizzer]

Also I suspect they still manage to shoot up some British fishing trawlers on the way, with the positive that as they are headed north there's less threat of the British tasking action.

As the British would know that only idiots would be heading that way to attack Japan it must be a cunning Russian plot of some kind and that they need to take action 🤪

 

[Garrison]

As the British would know that only idiots would be heading that way to attack Japan it must be a cunning Russian plot of some kind and that they need to take action 🤪

We must also consider what havoc the Kamchatka might wreak on the Northern route?

Kamchatka (ship) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[YYJ]

Rozhestvensky will add cannibalism to his list of woes.

Franklin's lost expedition - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[jlckansas]

Don't forget that if they make it around to the Bearing Sea they just might attack some US ships or even a town or two to get supplies from them. Wonder how that might work out?

 

[Garrison]

Don't forget that if they make it around to the Bearing Sea they just might attack some US ships or even a town or two to get supplies from them. Wonder how that might work out?

Badly, and an increased risk of mistakes as there might actually be Japanese torpedo boats in that part of the ocean.

 

[Sargon]

Can't see this ending well. Very high chance of being an even bigger disaster than Tsushima. The ships and crews have very little chance of getting to their destination, never mind the privations and suffering they'll have to endure due to the extremely harsh conditions on this route. If by some miracle any surviving ships and crews manage to arrive, they won't be in fighting condition.

Plus there's just no time to even arrange and put in place the minimum necessary facilities and logistics in place for such an undertaking.


Sargon