WI: No Israel

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

Personally I suspect that you could see mass conversions to Christianity or Islam or abandoning religion altogether with the double atrocities of the Holocaust and losing Palestine.

That ASB

The point of divergence cannot be before 1900 but can extend until the 1973 War. What if Israel ceased to exist? It can be done before it’s creation (ie no Balfour Declaration) or after its creation (losing any of the 1948, 1967, or 1973 wars). The only contingency is that the Holocaust cannot be butterflied away. Would the Jews remain in Palestine, find somewhere else to call a Jewish State, or head into a permanent diaspora without any hope of returning to the Holy Land?
Note: I do not condone any crimes against humanity or other atrocities. This is just an exercise about what could have been in history.

It all depend on what exactly is the PoD but honestly in something any close to OTL scenario there a close to 0 probability for the Arab coalition to completely wipe Israel off the map and make Israel cease to exist you need an earlier PoD for that and by 67 and 73 Israel already at nuke so the chance of them stopping to exist is extremely low.
i think with a PoD that prevent the creation of Israel most of the Jews would remain in their home country at the time there won’t be big hostility between Arab and Jews and some would emigrate to United state . With a scenario were is Israel Is defeated and cease to exist in a very different 48 war it depend on what is exactly happen and the leadership of the principal winner but I could see the Hashemite trying to make a deal to let exist a small autonome jew region at the majority Jew coast doesn’t know for the Egyptian monarchy and a Arab republic state would probably completely expel them and in a scenario where Israel cease to exist after having been defeated there would still be some hostility against the Jew in the levant and Egypt for at least some decades (causing immigration to America) but the Jews in say Morocco Yemen and Tunisia should be fine .

 

[Monk78]

The point of divergence cannot be before 1900 but can extend until the 1973 War. What if Israel ceased to exist? It can be done before it’s creation (ie no Balfour Declaration) or after its creation (losing any of the 1948, 1967, or 1973 wars). The only contingency is that the Holocaust cannot be butterflied away. Would the Jews remain in Palestine, find somewhere else to call a Jewish State, or head into a permanent diaspora without any hope of returning to the Holy Land?
Note: I do not condone any crimes against humanity or other atrocities. This is just an exercise about what could have been in history.

WI a lot of Jews continue to live in the middle east as in OTL preBalfour and have larger populations of European jews in USA /CAnada/RSA/Australia due to Holocaust?

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

This. Without a common enemy, there's actually very little that keeps the Middle East united. There's massive religious division between Shia and Sunni Muslims and between Muslims and Arab Christians and between Wahabi Muslims and secularist Muslims and etc. There's racial tension between Arabs and Copts and between Arabs and Persians and between Persians and Turks and between Turks and Kurds and etc. There's massive political divisons and some want socialism and some want Baathism and some want a republic and come want a caliphate and we can go on and on. It's roughly analogous to old Europe

Without a common incredibly unpopular enemy it seems more likely the arab world is even more balkanized. Without having to counter Israel its more likely there are more inter Arab wars.

That incredibly cliche and show a big lack of understanding of the Middle East at the time of the PoD Shia and Sunni division wasn’t as bad as OTL and might not be if a different outcome to the Iranian revolution . And Muslim and Christian Arab were pretty united under Arab nationalism (even if it depend of the region) and Wahabi was a fringe movement in the MENA outside of the gulf and globally see as backward by pretty much everyone if there will still be division between conservative and liberal where were there not ? Globally if no Israel in all likelihood the Middle East remain largely more liberal . Tension between Arab and Copts if still remaining will still be less than OTL . But tension between Arab and Turkish/Iranian will remain and possibly be stronger . A stronger Syria capable of defeating Israel might try to take back Hatay Sanjak and the Arab majority region of turkey same with Irak and Iran . Also tension between Turk and Kurds are also likely to remain . Socialism and Baathism are both less popular than OTL . And extremely little wanted a Caliphate in the 40s-70s . I actually see a probably a less Balkanized Arab world if the British doesn’t intend to create a Jew state they would probably keep Palestine and Jordan as one state and give it Abdullah I and from there will try to unite is southern levant with Syria like he wanted OTL and possibly succeed with Turkish Iranian and Druze help . Also it’s probably more likely for a Syrian head of state to try gain legitimacy and popularity by trying to annex at least part of Lebanon and realize the project of a United levant/ greater Syria . War would probably be more in question of border and leadership than sectarian civil war . Also population is more likely to revolt against dictator if they can’t play the cards of the revolted are Israel Pawn and the whole idea of a great Jews-western conspiracy against the Middle East

 

[schai]

Without Israel, most of arabian countries have no reason to hate Jew. They will allow Jew to live in their countries without issues.

The primary issue among arabs will be Shia and Sunni.

 

[Osman Aga]

Without Israel, most of arabian countries have no reason to hate Jew. They will allow Jew to live in their countries without issues.

The primary issue among arabs will be Shia and Sunni.

Eh... I doubt that. The existing Jews will likely not be harmed as much but they won't be welcoming more Jews either considering they prevented the creation of Israel. Jews aren't 100% tolerated in the Islamic World. While better than Europe until the 1950s, there will be some distrust of Jews in general.

Not necessarily either. If Arab Nationalism is successful due to the victory against the Israelis then it will become more popular. Their new boogeyman would be Turkey (Hatay, Urfa), Iran (Khuzestan) and later the Arab Monarchies (Being Western Puppets).

A lot of Shias in Iraq were Arab Nationalists. The decline of Arab Nationalism as popular ideology in the Arab World was pretty coincided with the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the growth of Wahabism in the World (Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan). A lot of Sunni-Shia conflict started in the 80s.

 

[schai]

Not necessarily either. If Arab Nationalism is successful due to the victory against the Israelis then it will become more popular. Their new boogeyman would be Turkey (Hatay, Urfa), Iran (Khuzestan) and later the Arab Monarchies (Being Western Puppets).

This is very interesting. In this scenario, do you think there is place for Erdoğan in Turkey? It appears to me that he wants to move Turkey toward Islamic society. With Turkey as new boogeyman, would he still have a market assuming he maintains his current policies?

Or will turkey be a new Iran?